Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I'm looking for a refinement or completely new strategy based on how I like to enjoy craps.

A little background:

-Very new to DI, so consider me a random roller at this point and the strategy to be used for other random rollers as well
-Usual buy-in is $200-$300
-Vegas resident
-I'm not looking to grind out a consistent profit, but rather find a somewhat low risk starting strategy that has the potential for a big hit on a good role.

Current Strategy - Regression/Progression:

-I place 6 8 for $18 each after point is established regardless of the point
-On first hit, I take both the 6 and 8 down to $12 each (taking $33 off the table including the winnings, and leaving $3 at risk)
-Second hit, I place the 5 and 9 for $5 each (taking $4 off the table from the winnings, and up $1)
-From here depending on various factors I'll start to press/take or go up a unit etc. and possibly add the 4 and 10 later

This has worked out for me fairly well, with recent sessions of $200 buy-ins over an hour or two resulting in wins of $150-$200.

Reason I'm looking to see what else is out there

I had some time to kill at the Orleans recently and the tables seemed high energy. They offer hard ways place bets that pay 5 to 1. I'm sure they've been discussed before, but for clarity they are exactly what they sound like. They don't lose to an easy way roll, but don't pay off either. So the hard 4 place bet pays 5 to 1 versus the normal 7 to 1, but only loses to the 7.

I haven't seen the actual math on them, but I can only assume they are fairly garbage in terms of HE. Discovering them for the first time though, I couldn't resist.

I followed my normal regression, but on the 2nd hit I instead placed the hardway 4 and 10 for 5 each. From there, I decided to let my 6 and 8 "feed" into that 4 and 10 bet. Any time the 6 or 8 hit I took the 4 and 10 up a unit. If the 4 and 10 hit, I took the winnings in. I probably got lucky, but I managed to walk away up $175 after about 90min of this.

What I'm looking for in other words

The Downtown Grand currently is offering 4 and 10 place bets (or lets you buy with no vig in other words) for true 2:1 odds. I was thinking of taking the above idea and instead pressing up the easy 4/10 there.

When thinking through it, I realized I'm really just looking for a way to smartly and consistently force myself to press bets while taking some money off the table. I like the excitement of a big hit, and I think my normal pressing of 4 numbers (5 6 8 9) on their hits or going up a unit usually keeps them fun but not super fun.

So my question is what variations are there of my basic regression strategy above that mathematically makes more sense than the two ideas above, or offers a similar experience? I'm not married to regression either, and in the past when I was learning the game would do the basic pass/odds $6 6/8.

Am I overthinking it? Should I just place the 5 and 9 on the 2nd hit as normal but instead of pressing the 5 and 9 or adding the 4 10...just continuously press the 6 and 8 with wins from any number?

Thanks for taking the time to read.

How about one of Heavy's fav moves - $18 6&8, drop $3 on first hit then collect $50 for $1 subsequently. There's your super fun

Sorry more detail - in dropping $3 on a hit you are telling the dealer to power press the number that hit to $42. Then each time it hits at that level just drop a dollar and dealer pays you $50 in return.

In the case of the Grand - there's no disadvantage to that bet - and there's no advantage to it - assuming you're dealing with a random roller. On a DI it's a different story. So to keep it simple and in "long run" terms, let's look at this whole thing from a lowest vig point of view. A free buy bet on the four and ten is the best bet on that layout. Excluding Pass and Don't Pass with odds, your next best bet is placing the six and eight. The Don't Pass is marginally better than the Pass, but if you're doing odds you have to lay more to win less, which bothers some people with short bankrolls. I don't sweat it personally because - again - there is no advantage or disadvantage to taking or laying odds. Over the long run it's a zero sum game. However, and this it key, on any give day you are a short-run player. And if you can string together enough short-run wins you can be a long run winner. A little bit of an advantage by setting the dice.

So how would I approach this game - assuming we're at the Grand and it's a $10 or $15 table? FIRST, I'd bump up my buy in to $500. By-pass the Come Out OR play $15 Don't Pass. Then Place the six and eight for $18 each and Buy the four and ten for $25 each. If I'm the shooter I'm either going to use the traditinal V-2 set or a mutant V-3 that brings out fours and tens with my toss. The four and ten are going to be my money makers and the numbers I press. The six and eight are going to pay the rent. So when you get that first hit on the six and eight for $21 - it's "same bet." You continue to "same bet the six and eight for at least three hits. Then, if the four and ten have not been pressed up, you press the next six or eight that hits to $42 (drop $3 on top of the $18 payout and tell the dealer to "make it look like $42). The object is to get ONE bet here pressed off so it's paying $50 for $1 on the inside. The sister number - say the six if the eight is pressed up - stays at $18 unless it REALLY earns the right to be pressed by repeating a couple of times.

The four and ten, on the other hand, are immediately pressed on the first hit. Whichever number hits first - press it to $50 and collect $25 - or go directly to $75. I prefer to collect the $25 so that bet is "paid for." Again, the idea is only to press one number - the four or the ten. I recommend you only press the bet on a winner. The other number hasn't earned the right to be pressed yet. Here's the press routine for the four or ten. $25 - $50 - $100 - $250 - $500 - $1000 - $2500 - $5000. I can tell you that there are guys here on the forum who have seen me run this progression before - resulting in huge wins. Especially if you are aware of what I call Energy Draining Events. I'm talking about new money on the table, cocktail servers tapping the shooter and asking if he wants a drink, dice off the table, stick change - the usual "superstition" calls. Turn your bets off when an EDE takes place and it'll save you money in the long run. Okay, it'll cost you money if you turn them off and the ten rolls and you have it pressed up to $2500. But you get the drift. Any time you have your action OFF you can't actually lose bankroll.

Now, let's harken back to that $15 Don't Pass bet. It's there for a couple of reasons. One is to make sure you get to toss the dice when they come to you. Some casinos will pass the dice on a player who had no line bet on the previous hand. That stops the guy who buys in for $20 and holds on to it until its his turn - then wants to shoot. Another is simply the fact that you're going to win that $15 bet two out of three times once the point is established. But the most important one is that it gives you an opportunity to LAY odds against the point at ANY point in the shooter's hand. So let's say the eleven rolls and you have the "sevens follow elevens within two rolls" superstition. Turn your place and buy action off and lay $30 - $60 odds. If, after a couple of tosses, the shooter's hand continues you can always take down the Lay odds and turn your place and buy bets back on. And most important - taking a REGRESSION at any point is always the right mover. When that little voice in your head says "one more roll and I'll turn them off," do not wait one more roll. Turn them off now.

Well, there you go. It's very close to how I'm playing these days. Unless we get on an extended don't streak the six and eight keep me in the game and the four and ten kick off a profit. With that said, I suggest you war game all strategies before taking them to the casino - either on a home table or practice rig - or in WinCraps.

Welcome to the forum - and thanks for jumping right in and posting. I'm sure the other guys will have their own opinions on how to approach this.

First, awesome feedback! Thank you for taking the time.

Here are some quick clarifications based on some of the suggestions:

-While I think London Shooter's suggestion definitely fits part of what I'm looking for, I think it's only something I'll try if I start off with a good roll that puts me up soon. Remember one of the things I like about my current strategy is the $18 regression down to $12 after the 1st hit gets me that safety net of taking my money off the table in the first 4-5 rolls. I'm far from a controlled shooter, and am assuming I'm playing with random rollers. So It's important to me that I minimize risk early on while waiting for a hot roll. One thing I didn't add earlier is I take my bets off on the 4th roll if the 6 or 8 has not produced that first hit.

-Heavy - Awesome feedback and I got a lot out of it. I like to stay in my comfort zone for now of the $200-$300 buy-in though so unfortunately some of the suggestions, while understood, won't work for me. Again, until I see results in DI the idea of putting $86 out there as an initial bet just doesn't sit well for me.

-I haven't had an issue where I play with being allowed to shoot if I've been on the table betting as long as I drop a pass/don't pass bet when it comes to my turn. But good to know.

-As far as the note about the pass vs dont and the marginal odds difference...I'm definitely on the side of it's all the same in the end and I want to keep the mojo positive and don't want to have the shooter see that don't pass money out there.

-Thanks for the note on the mutant V-3. I have been trying the V2 and V3 only as I try to get a rythm at the table. For now I know my throw isn't there, but I figure its just as good as a random toss so may as well try it. The mutant v-3 may be good for what I describe later in this post.

-The biggest help came from part of your suggestion (although I can't implement the full things as mentioned above) with getting 1 bet pressed up. Up until recently I was going up a unit or take/pressing all the numbers as the roll went on which lead my to my original OP request. What I tried at Orleans was flawed in that I was pressing evenly between two numbers (especially with them being high HE bets)

My new idea (with variation questions) based on your feedback - "Big 4s"

Again the idea here is to get that early regression to hit in the first 4 rolls to play with "free" money. Assume random shooters for now. From there, looking for a clear strategy to press for a big hit while having other numbers feed into it. Assume true odds on the 4/10 at DTG. Assume bets go off if a 6/8 is not hit in first 4 rolls.

Variation 1:
$18 on 6 and 8 regardless of the point ($36 at risk)
1st hit - Take $21 and regress both the 6 and 8 down to 12 each ($3 at risk with $24 total action across the 6 and 8)
2nd hit- Place the 5 and 9 for $5 each (Up $1, with $34 total action across 5 6 8 9)
3rd hit- Depending on which number hits, place the 4 and 10 for $5 each (Worse case at this point is $2 at risk with $44 total action on all place bets)

Strategy moving forward - Any hit on the 5,6,8,9,10 power presses the 4. Depending on which number hits, I may alternate going up $5 or $10 but never putting out more money until the "change" has added up. As in, if a 5 hits I'm adding $5 to the 4 and taking $2. If the 5 hits again I'm adding $5 to the 4 and taking $2. If the 5 or 9 hits I'm going to press the 4 by 10 now that the "change" has added up to another $5 ($2+$2+$2 on 3 hits). ANY time the 4 hits, I'm same betting. Even early on to serve as a clear rule to get money off the table.

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Variation 2: (Key difference is a deeper regression on 1st hit to get 2 more feeder numbers working sooner)
$18 on 6 and 8 regardless of the point ($36 at risk)
1st hit - Take $21 and regress both the 6 and 8 down to $6 each while also placing the 5 and 9 for $5 each ($1 at risk with $22 total action across 5/6/8/9)
2nd hit- Place the 4 and 10 for $5 each ($4 at risk, with $32 action across 4 5 6 8 9 10)

Strategy moving forward - Any hit on the 5,6,8,9,10 power presses the 4. Depending on which number hits, I may alternate going up $5 or $10 but never putting out more money until the "change" has added up. As in, if a 5 hits I'm adding $5 to the 4 and taking $2. If the 5 hits again I'm adding $5 to the 4 and taking $2. If the 5 or 9 hits I'm going to press the 4 by 10 now that the "change" has added up to another $5 ($2+$2+$2 on 3 hits). ANY time the 4 hits, I'm same betting. Even early on to serve as a clear rule to get money off the table.

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Variation 3: (Key difference is a lower initial bet if I go down early and need to manage BR)
$12 on 6 and 8 regardless of the point ($24 at risk)
1st hit - Take $14 and regress both the 6 and 8 down to $6 each (Up $2 with $12 total action across 6 and 8)
2nd hit- Place the 5 and 9 for $5 each ($1 at risk after dropping 3 to dealer, with $22 action across 5 6 8 9)
3rd hit- Place 4 and 10 for $5 each($4 at risk after dropping 3 to the dealer with $32 action across 4 5 6 8 9 10)

Strategy moving forward - Same bet next hit to get up $1. Any hit on the 5,6,8,9,10 then power presses the 4. Depending on which number hits, I may alternate going up $5 or $10 but never putting out more money until the "change" has added up. As in, if a 5 hits I'm adding $5 to the 4 and taking $2. If the 5 hits again I'm adding $5 to the 4 and taking $2. If the 5 or 9 hits I'm going to press the 4 by 10 now that the "change" has added up to another $5 ($2+$2+$2 on 3 hits). ANY time the 4 hits, I'm same betting. Even early on to serve as a clear rule to get money off the table.

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Questions

Lots of text but would love feedback. Again trying to keep the HE low on the initial 6 and 8 bet, then looking to press 1 number for big hits while taking advantage of the true odds being offered on the 4.

On the 3 variations, I noted what i view as the advantages of each. Is one more mathematically sound that the other? I like the idea in variation 2 of getting the 5 and 9 down 1 round earlier, but understand that I lose some pressing power by having a weaker 6 and 8 down the road.

I'm not sure if there is a name for this general idea of a strategy but I didn't see anything too similar while searching around.

Am I overthinking it? Can I accomplish the same thing by finding a 100x odds house and just power pressing my odds bet in a similar manor? Or possibly going to a more common 10x odds house and following the same strategy until I max out the odds bet and then from there doing a normal 1 unit press on my place bets.

I ran variation 1 and 2 through a simulator just to get a feel. After probably around 200 rolls the results seemed strong (for the sake of argument I wont share actual results because the sample size is relatively small, but I ended up hitting a huge roll that brought big profits...I just wanted to note that I did try it and it seemed to be ok and also gave me the thrill of that big hit chase without having to play high HE bets like hardways). Depending on feedback I may take it for a spin and post a TR.

I'm flying across country today so it will probably be late tonight or even tomorrow night before I can address your points. I do have some additional feedback. Meanwhile, search the systems for Green Chip Goldmine. If you can't find it on the forum Google it. I'm fairly sure I've posted it here.

O Egg - I looked up the hardways place bet on the wizard of odds site and he calculates the house edge as 14.3%, so not a bet to be taken seriously at all.

I still believe that if you are seeking a big payout for small investment then the All Tall Small is about the best way to go. Sure it works out around 7.5% HE on average but can be a good bet to have bubbling under along with a standard strategy.

Okay, so much for flying across country, fighting traffic on the ground, eating bad pizza and all of the other pleasures of life on the road. Allow me to address some of this stuff.

There are seven things you need to win consistently at craps. Read all about them here: viewtopic.php?t=798

You are buying in for $200 - $300 looking for a big score. For that same $200 - $300 I can get you hooked up with Scarlet Johansson. Seriously. And she's also a big score.

Okay, I'm giving you a hard time. So let me put this another way. Back in the 90's I made around $10K a year playing craps. I played one of two grind strategies. $66 inside. One hit. Regress to $22 inside. Same bet. Same bet. Up a unit (on the number that hit). Same bet. Same bet. Up a unit (again, on the same number that hit). See the trend? The other strategy was $15 Don't Pass. Point gets established. Bet $10 DC. Wait for a decision. If the $10 DC gets knocked off - lay single odds on the $15 DP. Wait for a decision. If the DP gets knocked off lay double odds on the DC. Do NOT replace the DP. Hope like hell the seven shows on the come out. That's it. The whole thing. Now, common sense says I should have around a $500 session bankroll to play this way, but occasionally, when in those North Kansas City casinos where they limited you to a $300 buy in every (I forget the time constraint - let's say 3 hours), I'd play with that level of buy in. Almost every time I got in trouble with early PSO's when paying $66 inside. Three of those in a row and you are essentially done for the night. Sooo, hopefully you can see the problem.

Now let me go back to that $10K a year number. I've been playing this stupid game for . . . good grief . . . 46 years now. I've played every sort of strategy imaginable. Place strategies, Come strategies, you name it. I've been low roller, a mid roller, and (on rare occasions) a high roller. I've played with some of the best shooters in the world. So how many times do you think I've won more than $10K in a single session? Try ONE. Over $5K in one session? Maybe half a dozen times. Over $2500? Well, that happens once or twice a year when the dice are cooperating (or the Fire Bets are hitting).

Now, I could have won MUCH more than $100 or so a session back when I was knocking down $10K a year. Really pretty simple to do. A $500 buy in kicking off a 20% win is just about where you ought to be. So to make $1000 a session all you need to do is add a zero to your buy in and your average bet. So buy in for $5000 and play $660 inside for one hit - then regress to $220 inside. Same bet. Same bet. Press. Same bet. Same bet. Press.

Bankroll, buy in, and average bet are inexorably linked. Sure, you can stand at the table and wait for a lightning strike. You might even get one every forty years or so. Or you could fly to Paris, hang around Scarlett Johansson's house and hope you get lucky there. Odds are probably about the same.

Ok I'm chiming in on the scarlet Johansson deal well worth the price there and 300 is cheaper then that oylmpic runner in vegas.