Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Pros and cons of playing the heat seekers strategy but using the Don't Pass..

Now that's what I like. A new member that jumps in with both feet and starts posting. Any thoughts on this from you old veterans? I'm up to my armpits in late night newsletter production at the moment. Guys?

Couple of quick question for you before we leap into an answer. First off, what are you trying to accomplish at the table? Are you trying to grind out a small win . . . find some way to qualify shooters with minimal risk . . . extend table time for comp purposes (or because you have nothing else to do) . . . or whatever? Then, tell me a little about your current approach to the game and why you're playing that way. Thanks.

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I'm not looking for comps but with any table games their are natural ebbs and flows with shooters and playing the don't pass will hedge a little more in the beginning of a shooters roll and in my testing my winnings are close to the same UNLESS the shooter continues to make his point but you can now play the pass line for the remainder of his roll and continue with the same strategy. When the 7 hits you go back to playing the don't pass continuing to collect on the 6/8 and your come numbers.

Also, I believe this will allow me to play an additional come bet because of the DP bet which potentially gives me another box number to collect money on.

Thoughts...

Okay, based on what you're telling me I would consider the DP/Place bet hybrid. Sounds like you've got a handle on the one-offs you can do with this. Example. $25 DP. If you want to partially hedge that on the come out you have seven ways to do it - $41 no four or no 10, $31 no five or no nine, or $25 no six or no eight, or $3 sevens hop. Being a hop bet kind of guy, I'd probably opt for the latter. Note that in general hop bets are a bad thing. In this case, though, I'm looking for something more than a minor hedge. I'm looking for a parlay opportunity. If I get knocked off my DP I can parlay my $3 hop sevens to $15 hop sevens. If that hits I can parlay it to $75 hop sevens. And if THAT happens to hit (and really, when playing day-long sessions I see three sevens in a row quite frequently) I collect my $375, come down on the remaining $25 hopper and go to the house with a quick in-and-out play. Watch the newsletter, coming out later today, for a war story about a guy I used to know who made this play just about every day.

Once you have your $25 DP established you have a lot of options. Place $12 six and eight OR (if it's a $5 game) play $22 inside. Make decisions from there based on what the dice are telling you.

Let's say you have $12 six and eight, get a hit, collect $14 and same bet it. Next hit pays another $14. What do you want to do? If the shooter has been tossing fives and nines you might want to place them for $5 each. You might want to press the number that just rolled (six or eight) OR you might want to press the six AND eight - a favorite move of mine. You could also take a Heat Seeker approach from here (although I would not make a come bet until I had my DP bet "paid for."

Let's say you do that and the shooter makes his point (we'll assume it was a nine). You have Place bets on the six and eight and come bets that have travelled to the five and ten. It's Come Out roll. What do you do now? I don't know about you, but I would hold off on making a Pass or Don't Pass wager at this point. I'd also turn my place bets and odds on any Come bets off until the shooter established a point and tossed at least one box number. I've been burned too many times leaving my bets up and on.

Now here's another angle for you. Let's say the shooter has tossed a hand, made a point, and established a second point. You've just lost your $25 DP but you've made $50 or so on ths shooter's hand and have seventy or eighty bucks in action on the table. This MIGHT be a good time to flip and start making DC bets. It might even be a good time to engage in a little of Dave's strategy - or at lest my scaled down version of it, which calls for $30 odds on all inside numbers. Hey, it's just a thought. There are literally dozens of ways to engagre in this type of play without a lot of exposure. It just takes a little creative hedging along the way.

There is an article on the site (I think in the Experts Speak sub board) called Transition Moves. I strongly recommend it.

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When there shows a run or trend either to the DO SIDE or THE DON'T SIDE
decision making is mostly a clear cut uncomplicated choice( hang in,Transition or WALK )

The CHOP makes for a big difference in player longivity..........

Sometimes you just got to "stand by & observe" mode and try to make some sense of WAZ WIT DIZ ............

Going against the trend may cost you. Short runs in both directions can destroy your BUY IN.

When a player TRANSITIONS and loses on the DO SIDE,then the DON'T SIDE and again on THE DO SIDE...................................................
Heavy if I may borrow a quote " When you lose three in a row,it is time to go "

Just me saying

W C