Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I thought I'd jump start a conversation with you guys before I head out of town for another weekend of house flip prep work with my daughter. The subject, since I just posted a link to Robert Hannum's excellent book, Practical Casino Math, on another thread, is Math versus the Streak/Trend.

Frankly, if we went purely by the math of any casino game we would not play at all. Let's face it. The games are designed to be in the house's favor. And except for rare casino math mistakes on their part (for example, promo game rules in blackjack where the math guy miscalculated the odd and the casino promoted a game that favored players) the games ARE in their favor ALL the time. So how do we ever win? Basically it all boils down to Variance. But we'll come back to that in a minute.

Generally speaking (there are casinos where the rules differ, but they are the exception) If we go strictly by the math we'd only bet . . . say . . . the best seven bets at craps. Pass Line with odds. Don't Pass with odds. Come with odds. Don't Come with odds. Place the six and eight. Buy the four and ten in casinos that only collect the commission on the win. Lay the four and ten in casinos that only collect the commission on the win. There you go. You would, in fact, NEVER bet the five or nine (due to the 4% house edge). You'd steer well away from the Field. You'd ignore the prop action completely. Hop bets? Forget about it.

Truth be known, those ARE the best bets over the long run. Of course, how you define long run makes a difference IMHO. From the casinos perspective the long run is made up of all the play of all the players for all time. The average player, with his minuscule $300 - $500 buy in, is a gnat on the ass of the long run. If you walk into the casino today and buy in on any game - anything can and will happen during the next 45 minutes. The table may hold every dime dropped in the box - or it may dump and need chip fill after chip fill. Most of the time it will be choppy. Players will win some. The house will win some. And at the end of the session you may be up or down a little - or a lot. And this happens despite of the math of the game.

Think in terms of the win/loss ratio at the table as a sine wave.
The top half of the sine wave represents the time that the table is dumping. The bottom half represents when it's taking. The key to winning - IMHO - is to bet more when you're winning and to bet less when you're losing - AND - to quit while you are ahead. This isn't rocket science, folks. It's not even math when you think about it. It's just common sense.

So why don't all of us play this way and break the casinos? Well, because in general (as my broker likes to say) past performance is no indication of future results. I agree with that. However, history is about the only thing (besides math) that we have to go on. And (as I like to say) history has a way of repeating itself. So let's get back to those dastardly fives and nines.

Here's an example of a craps hand similar to what I, myself, have tossed:

12 - 11 - 12 - 9 - 10 - 8H - 9P
9 - 8 - 10H - 5 - 9P
2 - 11 - 4 - 9 - 8 - 8H - 9 - 6 - 9 - 10H
11 - 9 - 5 - 6 - 9P
9 - 9P
3 - 5 - 9 - 9 - 7out

Okay, what can I tell you from those numbers? Bet the ridiculously high vig Horn or World bet on the Come Out. Bet the nine. Bet the hard 8. Bet the hard 10. Okay, I see. Every hard 8 I bet got knocked off by an easy 8, so let's forget that one unless you bet it from the get-go, which I don't recommend. The hard 10 repeated so there's a completed parlay if you play like me. But placing betting the six and eight would have paid off - as would placing the five and nine. In particular, you HAVE to bet the nine on a hand like this. When do I recognize that fact if it's someone other than me shooting? When he tosses the second nine and makes his pass. The nine is clearly the dominant number in this hand, and if you are playing in the moment - which is how I play - then you absolutely MUST have a wager on the nine.

How would my competitors play this hand? Well, they teach that you should never bet the five or nine. So while you're taking your nine from $15 to $35 to $75 to $150 to $350 (that last one pays you $500 for $10) they're standing there with their thumbs . . . well, they're busy talking to the cocktail server.

Does the math of the game matter? Of course. And while your results may ultimately mirror the casino's model - if you have a cool head and understand how to capitalize on a streak, manage your money when the table is on the take, and quit when you are ahead - there's no reason why you CAN'T be a long run winner.

Just my opinion but I'm sticking with it.

Exactly. I see, even though these are made up rolls, the favored number comes in 4 rolls or less. But there is a truth to this. This is why, on a rhythm roller or setter, I will play the first three numbers. Say the roll produces a 6. Ok..I'm on the six with odds and the 8 for $12. Now the shooter throws 4, 8, 9. I am now playing 6,8,4, 9. One of those numbers is it. Once it is hit..say the 9..I will punch it up and my attention goes there. Just me, but I would get rid of the 4 if it isn't hit in 3 rolls and maybe odds on the 6. Not interested in money not making money.

I agree with Heavy, there's no reason you CAN'T be a long run winner, we simply disagree HOW. And I can show my work.

And I can (but won't) show my win/loss records. I will tell you that I've had 3 losing years since I started tracking back in 1999. Conversely, I've had 14 winning years. One of those years my total loss was almost $2K. The other two it was under $1K. Then there was that January session where I won back the prior years losses time four, but that another subject altogether. Truth is, I'm probably due for another losing year. Just not this year.

Joe should either give up slots after winning $500k and go to the grave 250 ahead, or take the $250 he's ahead to the high limit parlor and be like the suitcase man. Put it all on the DP.

The sum of the top face(s) two standard casino dice yields eleven separate numbers.......
( 2 , 3 , 4 , 5, six , S , 8 , nine , 10 , Yo'leven ,12 )
......................E..............................
.......................V................................
.......................E..............................
.......................N............................

The SEVEN has a 16.666 % probability of showing on any one roll
One of the the inside numbers(5,six,8,Nine),collectively,have a 50 % probability of showing on a toss
The four inside Box numbers wagered for a short exposure seems a possible high probability.....
.
In real time ,a wager on the inside Box Numbers may be a unwise choice....
while a wager of the seven showing prior to any inside box number may be the money maker.....

Occasionally there are players who relate the probability Vs the reality of any roll or series of rolls ...
Also there are folks who leave sanity at the front door and make several trips to drain the nearest A T M
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all that said
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At times the numbers appear to clump up........
At times the numbers show with what may be described as no rhyme or reason
At times seemingly relatively many numbers show ( even some numbers show repeatedly )
Some players indicate they may be able at times to influence the number shown on a single toss...
Some craps players say stuff like "Dirty Raulsafrass and even !%$#@**&^(*&^//>, BOO-HO ......."
....
Call it arithmetic or streak, trend , random,or variance, it is a major challenge to consistently make a buck...

Some days you are the bug and some days you could be the windshield

just me saying

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