Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Personally, I think you have to look at the game as a long run venture. With that said, I typically jump in with both feet and bed confidently . . . until the first two PSO's. LOL. I'll have more thoughts on this later, but I'm out of pocket today. SIA and I are out in Lubbock, Texas visiting our pal Green Chip for a couple of days. He's been under the weather for awhile and we thought we'd come out and make his holiday special (when we leave and go back home Thursday).

Well if you have an advantage, then have a plan and stick to it.

The key is to bet at a level that you can sustain for say 50 goes. Once again I'll reference the wizard on this. This allows consistency in approach to profit on those good hands that will come but you have to stick it out through thick and thin.

Without consistency you may end up with THE good hand when you have pennies on the table and miss out on that big profit because you didn't keep the planned level in your betting pattern.

At the end of the day, if after these 50 goes in my example, if you have not made a profit, then it is highly likely you don't actually have an edge at all.

I think using low vig bets (Passline, Don't Pass, etc.) and using the same betting on each hand will take DI's a long way towards winning in the long run. Most of us probably don't have as large an edge as we think we do so sticking to the basics is the way to go. Also, bankroll management and discipline is greatly needed. The experts tell us this stuff all the time but unfortunately it really takes a while to sink in. That is why they are the experts---because they have already learned the lessons and tell us the truth. We just need to follow it!

Something to keep in mind is you may have the best toss in the world yet you'll lose money if you are using the wrong dice set for your toss. You have to learn your tendencies and track enough rolls to figure out which set is the correct one for you to use. Your set also may have to be different in various casinos as every table has different bounce characteristics.

Question here regarding how to know if you are influencing the dice. Are you exerting some influence if you are using a V3 set and you are throwing 6s, 8s, 9s with the same configurations fairly regularly in a session at the table? Seems to me you know pretty quickly whether you are in the zone or not. No? Also this:
" frequently variance will swamp our edge despite our skill"

Yes! Which brings up the question..Do you believe there is actual pressure presented by the necessity of the percentages to conform over time? It would seem that Heavy's thought that after a good throw with lots of numbers and pts. made..that there is a likelihood of the table going cold. That is..heading towards righting the ship. But maybe this is getting into the realm of the mystical.

Betting only on 6-8 is a wrongful play imho. You need to take come bet and line play in your game. If you are to miss out on every streaks to chase a specific set of numbers. You will never be positive in this game. Yes the lower odds numbers do streak quite often. They say random events occur in streaks.

Here is what I would advise. Everytime you see someone who looks like he's not throwing dices like he don't care what comes up. Take a pass line bet.

Take a come bet and odds the next. Which only expose 1 unit to loss on both first throw.

Then go with the flow and chose two more box numbers.
Make all bets two units.

Typically I will go for 4-5 8-9, why? Payouts risk.
First hit, pays 14 or 18. Down every bet to 1 unit bets.
You are in for 21 at a cost of 7. Next payout being 7-9. Parlay / collect first 4 bets. Place the next bets to cover remaining numbers.

Yes you can lose 41 on roll 3-4-5-6 lets say...but believe me it is worth the risk.