Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

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mainframe
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Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by mainframe » Tue May 09, 2017 8:41 am

Hey all,
I tried to do a string-search of the forum for an explanation of the "one hit can't miss" betting strategy. I see alot of references to this "play" or "OHCM". But I can't seem to find a detailed explanation of what the bet combo entails? Is it a DP hedged by a 6 and 8 place bet? And after a 6 or 8 hit, you take them down and leave the DP up?

Sorry for being a newbie.

--Mainframe

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crapsjourney
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by crapsjourney » Tue May 09, 2017 5:44 pm

I believe this is a Shoot it all (SIA) play.

OHCM is a DP bet with a place bet on 6 and 8

Eg $12 DP and $6 six and eight.

Variants and scale from that concept as you need.

PS It's a fabulous play.
-- Aaron
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by 220Inside » Tue May 09, 2017 6:19 pm

Actually, the placed 6 and 8 bets should be of the same size as the DP bet. One hit on the 6 or 8, collect and take both down. Wait for a decision on the DP. After that first hit, you are guaranteed to come out positive. Let's take a look at a $12 DP with $12 6/8 placed bets. After that first hit, which pays $14, there are two possible outcomes:

- A 7 is tossed before the point. Collect on the DC. Total profit $26
- The point is tossed, DC loses. Total profit $2

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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by heavy » Tue May 09, 2017 10:56 pm

I had a very fine BBQ lunch with SIA today. I even bought. Imagine that! We walked into the restaurant at 11:30 this morning and walked out at 3:30 this afternoon. I figure I drank about six gallons of Arnold Palmer ice tea. The drive back to Tyler from Canton (where the tornado hit about a week and a half ago but had the good sense to avoid our BBQ joint) was fairly miserable. Had to stop at a Dairy Queen for a "comfort break," which included a Hawaiian Blizzard. No wonder they call me "Heavy."
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by crapsjourney » Wed May 10, 2017 3:13 am

Thanks for correcting my error on the play. Embarrassing.
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mainframe
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by mainframe » Wed May 10, 2017 6:56 am

Hi All,
As far as the setup for the classic Shoot it all "OHCM" play...when you first setup, on a comeout roll, do you put chips down on the don't pass as well as the 6 and 8 and ask the dealer to have the 6 and 8 working on the come-out? Or do you wait until the point is established with your DP bet, and then place a 6 and 8?


--Mainframe

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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by mainframe » Wed May 10, 2017 6:56 am

Hi All,
As far as the setup for the classic Shoot it all "OHCM" play...when you first setup, on a comeout roll, do you put chips down on the don't pass as well as the 6 and 8 and ask the dealer to have the 6 and 8 working on the come-out? Or do you wait until the point is established with your DP bet, and then place a 6 and 8?


--Mainframe

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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by 220Inside » Wed May 10, 2017 7:05 am

Wait for the point to be set before tossing out your 6/8 action, otherwise you have an even bigger exposure to the 7.

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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by Moe Bettor » Wed May 10, 2017 7:53 am

There are other outcomes as well not counting a come out 7 or 11. DP for $12, come out 9. Place 6 and 8 for $12. 9 hits and you lose the $12 DP. I believe you now take down all bets and start over -$12. You could place the 9 for $10 which would net you
$14-$12=+$2..not sure if this is part of the OHCM. Is this right?

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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by SHOOTITALL » Wed May 10, 2017 9:01 am

Thnick: Sorta. "9 hits and you lose the $12 DP. I believe you now take down all bets and start over -$12." Uh, no. Not necessary as the shooter is coming out again, those bets are off.
Now, everyone seems to have variations on this play AFTER the first hit. My system Ends with the first hit and yours begins. How you handle the betting after the first hit, including myself, becomes your system. Ya wanna spread out to inside? That's your system. Wanna lay the four or ten or both? That's your system. You want to take down the 6/8 and wait for a decision on the DP? Same.
How do I play after this first hit? Depends. What is the point? If it is a sister to the point, I remove the hit p b. If the point is a 4 or ten, after the next hit, I start pressing one unit on the one that hit. Point 5 or 9? That can go either way but I tend to leave them up hoping to get a decent transition.
Now mainframe: Do not work the 6/8 on the CO as that defeats the purpose of the play. Dodging that 8/3 CO is a bitch anyways. In a normal flowing game this makes a few bucks. The killer to this is CO sevens and elevens in clumps. IF you start getting "clumped" (Ha!! coined a new dice term!!) you can skip the CO then go DC and play the same way. This system will let you transition on a hot hand and keep you in check on getting into the game. It is basically designed to lap the table without you losing your shirt and BR waiting on your turn to toss again. Any and all questions welcome. I am glad that some sees the value in that aspect of DI.
Edit: More good stuff on the OH CM: viewtopic.php?f=17&p=68413#p68413
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by mainframe » Wed May 10, 2017 10:41 am

Shootitall: thanks for your overall advice and feedback.

Do you think the OHCM strategy is a good way to "run up comps" by putting pretty high stakes down.
So lets stay my total bankroll for a particular session is $500 and I just want to preserve bankroll and run up comps.
Should I do a 120 dollar DC and after point, place 6 and 8 for 120 each, and then remove the two place bets?
Is this a good way to run up comps, or a good way to end my session really quickly?

mainframe
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by mainframe » Wed May 10, 2017 10:41 am

Shootitall: thanks for your overall advice and feedback.

Do you think the OHCM strategy is a good way to "run up comps" by putting pretty high stakes down.
So lets stay my total bankroll for a particular session is $500 and I just want to preserve bankroll and run up comps.
Should I do a 120 dollar DC and after point, place 6 and 8 for 120 each, and then remove the two place bets?
Is this a good way to run up comps, or a good way to end my session really quickly?

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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by Moe Bettor » Wed May 10, 2017 12:14 pm

I usually play the DC after giving a bye to the CO..so usually take down the place bets. I could turn them off..just a
habit of grabbing my money off the table. Mainframe..I believe this is a minimal type hedge betting arrangement. Unless you have
a few thousand to blow.Like he says..it is a wait and play system.

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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by SHOOTITALL » Wed May 10, 2017 1:25 pm

I have no idea on comps as I do not even check comps. But I suspect it would be minimal as the TGS would recognize a hedge in half a heart beat and consider that no bet. Probably only get credit for the six or the eight.
Under NO circumstance should you bet that level with such a small buyin. If you want to bet that level your buyin should be ~2-3 grand.
A better play @$500 buyin: $18 DP or DC, $18 6/8 or $25 DP or DC, $24 6/8. AFTER 2 wins (BR plus 2 PB wins) up a unit all around. After two more wins, up another unit all around.
CAUTION; If you spread out to transition only do it with winnings not BR not paid for bets.
Now, this is not including a hand where you transition because the shooter is just whacking hell out of sixes and eights and you have spread to inside collecting more or pressed the hot PB.
Now, I love it when the 4 or 10 is the point. I let that 6/8 cook and pay. When I have a gut feeling the hand has about ran it's course, I then hedge the point to either break even or win the PB. At the $18 level, one could place or buy (Especially if the vig is on a win, if up front, not so great) @$20 then lose $2 on a seven out or win an additional $16 or on a buy, an additional $18.
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by mainframe » Wed May 10, 2017 3:14 pm

SHOOTITALL: Thanks for Advice.

Is it true that any "opposing bets", even partial hedges, are really tracked accordingly by the pit boss so that your rating isn't artificially inflated?

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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by DarthNater » Wed May 10, 2017 10:39 pm

SIA,
When you set the initial DP, and a 7/11 knocks it off; do you replace? If so, o you replace more than once?

Also, once the point is set, and eventually made with no six/eight preceding; do you re-bet the DP again?

Thanks, D.N8r
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by SHOOTITALL » Wed May 10, 2017 11:37 pm

DN:
Grafstein says not to let a shooter beat your twice. That's good advice but I usually take two shots. That's it. Now here is the rub:
Say the shooter throws an eleven. You lose. I replace that DP and try again. This time he sets a point, say a five. I put up my 6/8 place and that sucker bull frogs me. Well, that is two losses so I do not chase this shooter again. However, now my 6/8 is still up but off on the CO.
Decisions, decisions. Do I pull them and wait for the next shooter? Do I go naked with no hedge? I usually leave them up and working after the shooter sets the next point. If you get a hit, decisions, decisions. Pull? Transition? I haven't a clue for a hard and fast rule but I usually leave them up as this may be the start of a something good. (now I am about to get in trouble because it seems contradictory)
So, the next question is how often do you get whacked two in a row? Very seldom.
Here is what I am working on and gonna try out in a couple of weeks in S/B:
(This next sort of causes me a quandary)
IF I lose two in a row, I may to switch to the Dodging Bullets on the Darkside strategy. Start @ $10 bucks. This is one MP wrote up oh so many years ago and it has always fascinated me. If I use it, I am going to run that three levels. $10, $25, $55 and I be done. This is a killer system on a choppy table (60% of the time). (I can hear the questions now: You said not to let a shooter beat you twice and here you are chasing this guy? (What happened to the 6/8 PB?) again, leave them or pull them. Gut feelings here.
No. I changed systems. DBotDS is suppose to start after a shooter makes his first point (notice that excludes a CO 7/11). There I be changing systems but I believe these two systems mesh perfectly as no others ever have.
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by rhythm roller » Thu May 11, 2017 3:19 pm

So now can we review DBotDS system? I don't remember it although the name does sound vaguely familiar. Thanks guys!
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heavy
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by heavy » Thu May 11, 2017 3:56 pm

What the hell is the DBotDS system? Or is it supposed to say DP to DC? Oh, the typing challenges . . . your fingers are too fast for you head.
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Re: Revisiting "one hit can't miss"

Post by SHOOTITALL » Thu May 11, 2017 4:03 pm

IF I lose two in a row, I may to switch to the Dodging Bullets on the Darkside strategy
http://www.dicesetter.com/mp/dmad127dodge.htm

There is a 16% chance that a player will make a 2nd PL-Point in a row.
Ø There is a 7% chance that a player will make his 3rd Point in a row.
Ø There is a 3% chance that a random-roller will make a 4th winning PL-Point in a row.
This is why I have chosen to use three levels only. If I can't with with a 97% advantage, it's just not my decade.
Last edited by SHOOTITALL on Thu May 11, 2017 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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