Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

The world famous gaming author and his semi-famous former partner say you never bet the five and nine because the 4% house edge on those numbers is too great to overcome.

I recall the days when the popular saying around the casino was "Heavy's got the dice - hop the nines."

I suppose we all have different opinions on whether or not we should bet the five and nine - and if we do bet them, how do we go about it. A few years back, when there were plenty of $5 games around, I'd bet $34 inside, high on the six and eight ($5 each on the five and nine - $12 each on the six and eight). On the first hit on the six or eight I'd press both to $18. On the five or nine, I'd drop $3 on the first his and press the five and nine to $10 each. Then I'd take a couple of hits before pressing again, eventually settling into a take-two/press-one routine. These days I tend to start at either $66 inside or $66 even numbers, depending on what numbers have been rolling. I'll always have the fix and eight for $18 each but the $30 I split on the outside might go on the inside or on even numbers. If we've been seeing a generous number of fours and tens - I bet the four and ten. If the five or nine dominate then I'll bet the inside numbers.

Some people prefer a regression strategy. Say $110 inside for one hit - then regress to $44 inside. That unfortunately still leaves you with nine at risk dollars on the next roll. That means you need another inside numbers before you're in the plus column.

But I'm straying off topic and talking bout other numbers than the five and nine. Let's hear your take on it. Do you bet the five and nine? IF so, how do you bet them? Do you have any money management tips? Do you incorporate a regression? Inquiring minds want to know.

I'm generally looking for 5's or 9's to rear their ugly heads before betting them. I'm generally either a 6/8 or evens kinda guy.

When the 5 and 9's do show themselves during a roll, I'm looking for two of them in close proximity to one another before dipping my toes in the water on them. If the second number is a repeater of the first, I'll toss $15 on it and ignore the sister number. If the second number thrown is the sister of the first, I'll go $10 on each.

Most of my play is at tables where you can buy the 5&9, so as long as you are willing to bet in increments of $20, the vig is as good as any.

This makes it hard to adjust my play in tighter markets like Las Vegas. (A wise man might ask why I bother to play in Las Vegas, and I would tell that man to mind his own business! )

I will almost never place the 5 or 9 in Las Vegas, but I will make come bets and let those fill up the board if I'm shooting.

What is the vig on the bet if I Put the #5 with 4x odds? It seems like come-out rolls will affect this per-roll calculation, unless I'm setting and working my odds on the comeout.

- Bob

If you put the 5, say $10 and add 4X odds the payout is $70. Place $50 five pays $70. Buy $50 pays $73
Play in Mississippi!

I’ll mostly bet them as an inside combination. I generally prefer the even number bets in Vegas, but given the buy option in MS, the vig isn’t really an issue compared to other place bets.

I often take down a 5&9 if I have an inside bet upnand get no hits on anything for 3 rolls. A good way to regress/get money off the table and then leave the 6&8 up looking for a hand to progress.

I’ll mostly bet them as an inside combination. I generally prefer the even number bets in Vegas, but given the buy option in MS, the vig isn’t really an issue compared to other place bets.

I often take down a 5&9 if I have an inside bet upnand get no hits on anything for 3 rolls. A good way to regress/get money off the table and then leave the 6&8 up looking for a hand to progress.

Another three roll man in the house! I like the 5 and 9 as buys over $30. Three and off works pretty good for me if numbers aren't paying..especially outside. Don't regularly use hits on 5 and 9 as a push to convert from the dark side. I will place them..but again after three rolls..you know the routine.

"Heavy's got the dice - hop the nines."
I would guess this was when you were tossing the "super set". Since i started tossing X6s the five and nine can show up on a regular basis. I usually bet them at one unit and press according to their frequency. If 9 or 5 is the point i almost always bet the sister. If things are going great i will start them at 15 and press to 35, love the 50 for 1 that comes next.

22 inside said:

When the 5 and 9's do show themselves during a roll, I'm looking for two of them in close proximity to one another before dipping my toes in the water on them.

Can you define "close proximity?" Are we talking two nines in three rolls? Six rolls? Nine rolls? Twelve?

Follow up question. In 36 rolls how many nines SHOULD we see?

I have never been afraid of placing the 5,9. (Maybe I should) After reading this thread, I may begin to bet even numbers unless I see 5,9 hitting as Heavy suggests....

That being said...
If I were hesitant to place the 5,9, but I wanted to get that action on the table regardless of my fears..
Why not try a bet that Heavy taught at boot camp many years ago. Make it additional to your normal bet, but think of it as if it were standing alone.
Place 5,9 for fifteen apiece, then after one hit regress to ten each.
Oh, Lordy...We can all sigh in relief since we now have a net profit of one dollar for the bet no matter when the hand ends, so, take them down, press, press in pairs, what ever...The 5,9 bet cannot hurt me. The 9,5 bet cannot hurt me.
Personally, I sigh in relief when I make my (overall) ISR, since at that point, the 7 cannot hurt me, the 7 cannot hurt me.

Memo

LOL. The beauty of any kind of regression.

Of course, what I tell people most of the time these days begins with a question. When does the casino extract the vig? The answer is "when they pay off a winning bet." So my response is, "If you just won that bet and got paid 7 to 5 do you really give a rat's ass if the casino made 4% on the transaction?"

Things you pay more than a 4% tax on routinely:

Sales tax on any taxable purchase (in Texas 6.5% to the State plus whatever the local jurisdiction wants)
17% total taxes on your cell phone bill
10% - 39% Federal income tax
18% Federal Excise Tax on fuel purchases
31% on average State tax on fuel purchases
10% Luxury Tax on cars over $30K, Boats over $100K, Airplanes over $250K, and jewelry over $10K

I could go on with this tax thing for hours. The point is, you have a cell phone, most of you have an income, most of you buy "stuff," and most of you burn fuel. Some of that fuel may go in a car with a cost of over $30K, a nice boat or an average small airplane. A few of you have purchased a low end Rolex.

It's a tax. I don't like paying it but it is what it is. It helps keep the lights on in the casino so we can make a few bucks off the joint.

heavy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 10:55 am 22 inside said:

When the 5 and 9's do show themselves during a roll, I'm looking for two of them in close proximity to one another before dipping my toes in the water on them.

Can you define "close proximity?" Are we talking two nines in three rolls? Six rolls? Nine rolls? Twelve?

Follow up question. In 36 rolls how many nines SHOULD we see?

I gotta admit that without tracking each roll at the table, it gets difficult for me to keep track of frequencies on multiple numbers for any more than 10-12 rolls at a time. But I would say I'm looking for the 5/9 repeating within 5-6 rolls of each other.

For part 2, there should be 4 nines in 36 rolls.

On shooters I don't know, I don't play 5 or 9 unless two things have happened: I'm already ahead on the roll (6&8 have paid 2x) and the 5 or 9 have shown 2x.

Who changes their set according to the point or keeps the same set regardless?

I don't bet the fives and nines unless as Sockeye indicated "they have shown 2X.". For the most part, I try to stick with the even numbers. I've been known to throw a few, if not more than a few (5&9's). So, I won't change my set to make the point, I try to toss numbers until the point comes home.

I think there is a great deal of credibility to this 2X idea that is being expressed in this thread..

It goes back to the expression that is not used as much these days...'signature numbers'. And the reason that I have always been in agreement with Heavy and his 'See a Horn, bet a horn' position.

As DI's, we try to influence the outcomes, and the outcome is that we toss in patterns...
Over long number of trials, someone may exhibit some signature numbers and gain an advantage over them....The kicker is...This takes place at home and over many trials under controlled circumstances.
Go to the casino...conditions are different. We talk about this all the time. Don't need to elaborate.
The result is that we need to 'Dial in the table'. No need to elaborate on that either, except to add that we are also dialing in our brain/neurology/physiology at the same time.

Finally,
We are tossing pretty much the same...Provided we get the 'crap between ears' thing controlled.
The result is that patterns will emerge, however, they may be different than at home, especially in the short term..Playing in the casino. One small issue and a DI may begin spinning off horn numbers. Heavy sees that and cleans up.

Theoretically, a DI could suddenly begin tossing fives or nines or both..Not because his signature numbers have changed, not because of variance or gaffed dice...
The change is from consistency. That consistency is gained from practice, repetition, study, etc. Since we influence rather than control the dice...Any small nuances can change our regular patterns. The trick is to notice, and respond. Hence the 2X idea. A lot of validity there.

Memo

Okay, the 9 should roll on average once in every nine rolls. That doesn't mean it's going to do that. It's just an average. If you're going to follow the Grafstein rule of "only backing a winning horse" then you want to see the 9 rolling more than one time in nine rolls. This is tricky because you might see a 9 followed by a 2, 4, 8, 9 . . . that's two nines in five rolls . . . then the nine might go to sleep for 33 rolls. You just never know. However, if I see the nine roll more than two times in six to eight rolls then I'm going to bet the nine. THAT is if I'm only backing a winning horse - which means I'm only betting numbers the shooter is throwing.

If I want to pick up the five it's going to have to earn its right. So I'm looking for the same thing. Two fives should roll with in six to eight rolls, as outlined above. I treat the bets individually based on frequency of the number showing. HOWEVER . . .

If we see a series like this: 6 - 8 - 9 - 5 - 9 . . . then I'll probably bet both the five and nine (and I'd already have the six and eight).

Yeah, it's fuzzy math. But I like peaches with the peeling on so what the hell? Why not?

Sockeye wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:54 am Who changes their set according to the point or keeps the same set regardless?

I almost always use the crossed-twos. Whatever the point is, I'm probably placing at least the even numbers, so there's no reason to change.

The exception would be if I was playing low stakes and had just one or two bets on the table, or if the dealers have a bet on the hard 6 or something like that.

heavy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 05, 2018 9:28 pm Things you pay more than a 4% tax on routinely: ...

The difference with any of these is that you don't just pay the tax one time on your $500 buy-in, but you pay it on every winning decision. You may wager that $500 10-100 times before the nights done, so it's very possible for the total vig collected to be greater than your buy-in even with a small vig (<2%).

That said, I'm not a big fan of taxes either...

- Bob

The difference with any of these is that you don't just pay the tax one time on your $500 buy-in, but you pay it on every winning decision. You may wager that $500 10-100 times before the nights done, so it's very possible for the total vig collected to be greater than your buy-in even with a small vig (<2%).

Two things to think about here. One, there is no vig on a losing bet. You just lose the bet. Two, if someone is paying you $700 for a $500 bet do you really care? They only extract the vig on the win - but you WON. Just me thinking out loud . . .

heavy wrote: ↑Fri Apr 06, 2018 5:08 pm

The difference with any of these is that you don't just pay the tax one time on your $500 buy-in, but you pay it on every winning decision. You may wager that $500 10-100 times before the nights done, so it's very possible for the total vig collected to be greater than your buy-in even with a small vig (<2%).

Two things to think about here. One, there is no vig on a losing bet. You just lose the bet. Two, if someone is paying you $700 for a $500 bet do you really care? They only extract the vig on the win - but you WON. Just me thinking out loud . . .

As with a lot of gambling questions, for one bet it doesn't seem to matter, but let's say I play that game ten times (easily achieved in a night) and pass that money back and forth. If the bet is a "fair" payout, I'll have a good time and end up about even. If they are collecting $50 every win, I'm walking away $150-$200 poorer.

Just like in life, if the vig is a metaphor for tax, I'd rather make $1Million a year and pay a 50% tax, than make $10,000 a year and pay no tax. For me, when it comes to the vig paid to the house I consider it a cost of doing business.