Baccarat Tie Bet
Posted: Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:27 am
I was asked on another thread if "see a tie - bet a tie" extended beyond the first wager. In other words, if you win that bet do you continue to make it until it loses or do you just lock up the win and go back to the regular game. It's a good question and I'll shoot you the answer from my perspective.
First, let me give you my see a horn - bet a horn reasoning. There's a 17% chance that a horn number will show on the next toss of the dice. That's about one in six - the same odds as the seven showing next. But when DI's have the dice you'll frequently see streaks of two, three or more horn numbers in a row. This may be a function of the set they are using or it may be because their toss is "off" and they are continually making the same mistake. I don't care as long as I can profit from it, and it's been my experience that I can profit on this class of shooters betting see a horn bet a horn.
This is not the case with baccarat. There's less than a 9% chance of a tie showing on the next hand at baccarat. There are no DI's at baccarat, just the Player and the Bank in a (usually) totally randomly dealt game. Mathematically, unless you are counting cards (which is nearly impossible at baccarat) you should never play the tie bet. However, like the horn bet the tie bet does have a tendency to clump. This clumping is why I am willing to risk a few bucks on it for an 8 - 1 payoff.
Now here's where the baccarat voodoo comes into play. Walk by any baccarat table and who do you see playing? Odds are there will be half a dozen Asian players at the game. And if you watch it long enough you'll see one or two of them meticulously tracking every decision - suddenly shouting "tie line!" Now, I don't know what the hell these guys have seen that has led them to believe it's time to bet the tie. But I do know they play a hell of a lot more baccarat than I do, and I've seen enough of them win the stupid bet that I'll follow their lead. So that's often my key to toss out a first tie bet. Scientific? Not at all. But I sure do like it.
First, let me give you my see a horn - bet a horn reasoning. There's a 17% chance that a horn number will show on the next toss of the dice. That's about one in six - the same odds as the seven showing next. But when DI's have the dice you'll frequently see streaks of two, three or more horn numbers in a row. This may be a function of the set they are using or it may be because their toss is "off" and they are continually making the same mistake. I don't care as long as I can profit from it, and it's been my experience that I can profit on this class of shooters betting see a horn bet a horn.
This is not the case with baccarat. There's less than a 9% chance of a tie showing on the next hand at baccarat. There are no DI's at baccarat, just the Player and the Bank in a (usually) totally randomly dealt game. Mathematically, unless you are counting cards (which is nearly impossible at baccarat) you should never play the tie bet. However, like the horn bet the tie bet does have a tendency to clump. This clumping is why I am willing to risk a few bucks on it for an 8 - 1 payoff.
Now here's where the baccarat voodoo comes into play. Walk by any baccarat table and who do you see playing? Odds are there will be half a dozen Asian players at the game. And if you watch it long enough you'll see one or two of them meticulously tracking every decision - suddenly shouting "tie line!" Now, I don't know what the hell these guys have seen that has led them to believe it's time to bet the tie. But I do know they play a hell of a lot more baccarat than I do, and I've seen enough of them win the stupid bet that I'll follow their lead. So that's often my key to toss out a first tie bet. Scientific? Not at all. But I sure do like it.