Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

r_ventura_23: "..2nd one. Parlayed J Taylor, Fournette and Mixon all to score a TD. That one was a winner..."

Good win. That type of parlay is difficult IMO.

DarthN: "...So after KC scored that first TD, the Station’s app had an In-Game alterNate line of Den + 15.5 +138. I hit that for a couple of pizzas as insurance..."

DarthN ,Do you look for these live in-game bets as a major part of your wagering regime???


My only NFL selection for this past week from my dec 3 post.
**My best/only wager and top prop bet: SF qb Jimmy G Tot Pass yds(219.5) "OVER" .
This is receiving my season-long winning streak pressed-up wager. The O/U moved to 220.5 as of this morning and I expect it will continue a movement slightly upward by game time.

WINNER, as JimmyG easily covered the 219.5 OVER by tossing for 299 tot yards.

I will examine the Prop bets for this week on Friday or Sat/ post here if any bias is discovered.


All the best,

Tgold wrote: ↑Wed Dec 08, 2021 1:33 am
DarthN ,Do you look for these live in-game bets as a major part of your wagering regime???

I started taking the In-game more seriously last year when I was more comfortable with the William Hill app. In game has a learning curve, and is forcing the bookmaker to react - generally defensively, IMHO. The numbers change every few minutes, so you have to be looking for something specific in order to capitalize.

What really sold me on it was last year's Super Bowl. If you look at my parlays thread for last year, you'll see I had straddle bets set up based my assessment of a tight game where KC ekes a win. Watching the game it became apparent that Mr Brady had other ideas, so when WH posted a line of (as I recall) TB -2.5 -110, I threw some pizzas on that. Then it went to -6.5 - more pizzas; then it crept back to TB -3.5 -110. As John Patrick said in his book, if you love 'em at -6.5 then you're gonna really love -3.5 --- so more pizzas. When TB scored just before halftime the line ballooned over TB-10 -- then I knew those were safe. I watched the third quarter, prepared for a KC comeback to hit the other side if necessary - which never happened. I knew it was in the bag when the In game money line went to -1100.

Since then I play it, but only if I know I can watch the whole game <----important safety tip.

As this season is crazier than last it's been a good hedge tool, like it was Sunday night. I had three parlays needing KC-3, so when I saw DEN +15.5 after KC took the 7-0 lead; I tossed a few pizzas on it looking for a middle. Fortunately DEN backdoored that number in garbage time so won the hedge and the original parlays with a nice middle.

Of course after Monday night, I was wishing I'd had added that NE +10 leg, oh well, greed kills, DN8R

I have the following play. I parlayed our basketball pick of Denver from the NBA thread with the Ravens +7 and the Packers -3. Not a great pay out, but I like my chances.

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:41 am I have the following play. I parlayed our basketball pick of Denver from the NBA thread with the Ravens +7 and the Packers -3. Not a great pay out, but I like my chances.

Wow how did you get GB-3? That's a high stack of pizzas leg; are you using the special 10 point teaser? That would be -120, I think? Denver BB on the money line?

DN8R

Week # 14 is here.

Who likes teasing PIT tonight? For a Primetime teaser, my first look is a 7 pointer with PIT +10, GB - 5.5, and ARZ +4.5. I think LAR is desperate, so that leg doesn't give me confidence as I think as good as ARZ has played, there's a lot of overreaction in the market and the media. You have to ask yourself one question, can ARZ beat GB & TB in the playoffs? If so, go buy that futures ticket now!! Bankerdude and BankerBro - what say you on ARZ? Are the locals pumped up?

So looking for a third leg and maybe a second - though I hear JF is back, lol. Detroit has gone from +7.5 to +10 --- not sure what's up with that, but teasing to +17 sounds too good to be true, gotta go sniff that. There's SEA (sorry Stevo), and TB has climbed to -3.5; but no way do I do Buf +10.5, or do I? Might be better with just two legs if I really want PIT + 10, DN8R

DarthNater wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:32 pm

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:41 am I have the following play. I parlayed our basketball pick of Denver from the NBA thread with the Ravens +7 and the Packers -3. Not a great pay out, but I like my chances.

Wow how did you get GB-3? That's a high stack of pizzas leg; are you using the special 10 point teaser? That would be -120, I think? Denver BB on the money line?

DN8R

I paid up. Bought it down to -3 and laid -450 as part of the parlay. If the Ravens come through I will look to middle it.

Well I opted for a 6.5 teaser on Pit +10, KC -3, Sea -2 for a couple of pizzas while we wait on the Friday injury updates

DN8R

Well we snatched life from the jaws of death last night when Big Ben and company woke up in the middle of Q3 and managed a truly titanic back door cover to keep my ticket alive. Ironically when it was 29-0 I could have gotten PIT + 18.5 for +148, alas I chose not to chase.

So still alive and going to add a few more tickets with the SEA/KC core two legs. DET is now +10.5 which would go to 17.5, hmmmm. NO is -6, SEA now at -8.5, KC now at -10, and LAC at -9, or SF at -2 --> +5? Or CLV at -3 ---> +4 neutralizing Tucker; I also like DAL -4.5 ---> +2.5

We'll see what the lines do overnight, DN8R

I thought you were dead with Pitt down 29-0.

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 11:08 pm I thought you were dead with Pitt down 29-0.

I was dead, and so were they......

Thx r_ventura_23 and DarthN. Good thoughts and wagers.


DarthN:
".. I started taking the In-game more seriously last year when I was more comfortable with the William Hill app. In game has a learning curve, and is forcing the bookmaker to react - generally defensively, IMHO. The numbers change every few minutes, so you have to be looking for something specific in order to capitalize...."

"...Since then I play it, but only if I know I can watch the whole game <----important safety tip..."

Thanks for your reply to my Qs above as well as ur thoughts/examples in this post above on 12/8. Several good ideas that I like. My issue is I have to place wagers through a friend. Although it is helpful he has multi-accounts with sportsbooks and this allows for price shopping on basic wagers. However, like you mention above the in-game wagers need to be placed instantaneously(& one needs to watch the game)

DarthN: "...CLV at -3 ---> +4 neutralizing Tucker.."
I like this leg from your above wager.


*My top prop pick this week in the NFL is : Ravens QB Lamar Jackson "or as the media always refer to him: "LeMarkable" o/u 232.5 "UNDER" .

This gets my season-long pressed up wager. Its not my best pick 5***** of the season but my top pick this week. My biggest concern on this wager is that late in the game with the Browns clinging to a narrow lead they may choose to lay back playing a prevent defense in an effort to not give up a long pass--quick score. Thus knowingly sacrificing the 8-12 yard pass and Lamar picking up a few dozen cheap extra yards late in the game to surpass the Total Pass Yds. Unfortunately for me his tight end and wr(MarquiseBrown) often grab these 8-12 yard passes and make it a 30-50 yard completion.
We shall see. Go Brownies(-2.5).


May everyone cash big tickets today.

This morning I grabbed a third leg with GB in a 6.5 teaser with KC and Sea

DN8R

Well i looked at teasers while in tunica, decided that it wasnt worth the tease in that i would have have to drive back for the wins …. Too narrow for a 4 hour drive …. Opted for a seven legger to make the drive worth it …. 6 of the legs looking really good, lat one tonight with GB

The over 42.5 covered. So the $50 parlay pays $2108

Parson:
…. Too narrow for a 4 hour drive …. Opted for a seven legger to make the drive worth it …. 6 of the legs looking really good, lat one tonight with GB

"The over 42.5 covered. So the $50 parlay pays $2108"

Congrats on a fantastic parlay. That ROI is adequate too.

DarthN: "I grabbed a third leg with GB in a 6.5 teaser with KC and Sea"

DN It looks like you covered all of these if I'm reading correctly. I really like Arodgers /GB late in the season &playoffs. I actually picked up a futures bet to make Sbowl after their Nov7 loss to kc.

*My only nfl wager this week: WINNNER on the ravens qb Lamar Jackson UNDER 232.5 tot pass yds as he finished with (17). Backup qb Ty Huntley played the 2nd half as they attempted a desperate comeback. Only to fall in a miserable defeat and thrashing from the mighty Browns (24-22).


Congrats to all cashing big tickets.

IF a friend of mines parlay hits tonight with the Cards covering 3 1/2 his $200 parlay which included a flipping soccer game on the 8th will win him $14,157 on 8 legger parlay . SMH

My parlay came in but I missed on the middle with the Bears losing by $15. I hedged with them +12.5.

Damn Bears & Damn Cards - actually Kingsbury! In the words of Stanford Steve "What were you thinking??"

Tonight I am parlaying the Suns on the Money Line(Jaime's pick) with the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.

r_ventura_23 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 14, 2021 11:44 am Tonight I am parlaying the Suns on the Money Line(Jaime's pick) with the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.

That's a long wait for a parlay, good luck, DN8R