Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Has anyone played where if any number is rolled two times in a row, you lay that number? Seems like a good bet but boring.

Sooo you wanna bet against a number that has an established pattern?? I think that's an opportunity to press but what do I know.

I'm out. I have a specific criteria for Placing numbers based on how frequently a number repeats. If the number repeats within that pattern I Place or Buy it because it is repeating out of sync with statistical norms and there's no reason to think it won't continue. In fact, there are many reasons to think it WILL continue with the same shooter. If you want to Lay a number that's been repeating with a shooter - wait until the dice pass to the next shooter to do it.

I'm always looking for dominant numbers to bet with them

heavy wrote: ↑Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:28 pmIn fact, there are many reasons to think it WILL continue with the same shooter.

So you feel that the chances (I know every roll is independent and odds are the same always blah blah) I feel we are talking experience and intuition not statistical odds. The chances that the repeating number will roll again is more likely than the fact that statistically the given number shouldn’t roll again.

I think experience is teaching me the same thing. I once laid the 4 after seeing it repeat several times. I got knocked off so I doubled the bet and promptly got knocked off again. As I left the table I reflected, if I had just bet the dang number and doubled the bet twice I would have walked away a big winner.

Hi advell77
advell77: "Has anyone played where if any number is rolled two times in a row, you lay that number? Seems like a good bet but boring...."

I might be in agreement if you said after Three-times-in-a-row. Otherwise, I would be more likely to lay the sister# that had NOT hit(Part of my reasoning is that it had Not hit/ also the probability&payoff is equal to and partially replacing my lost Lay bet). Just my opinions as most of my decisions at the table are based on the premise: Whatever is hitting greater-than-expectation may have a propensity to continue happening/whatever is hitting Less-than-expectation may continue to do what its doing(i.e, Not hit).
There is almost always a bias happening at the table/ since this is an even-chance weighted wager game we should not be too overly concerned with where the bias is---just bet it.


All the best,

Are you talking about DI rolling or a random shooter? A DI can set for those numbers..like 10 or 4. When a 10 or 4 gets up to hitting 8 times with a random roller, I might take a minimal shot at it as a lay bet only because the instances of those numbers showing up more than 8 in a single hand
is extremely rare. A survey of 125K rolls showed that those numbers never made it past 8 rolls. But they have made it past 8 rolls with DI's shooting as I've heard on this forum. There also the lost number lay bet. If a 10 or 4 doesn't show within 12 or 13 rolls and then shows..lay it. There was a guy
DiceTrkkr who did that, I believe. I've done it myself.

I would be hesitant on a DI, but someone who chicken feeds the dice I think is a good bet to lay the number that is rolled two times in a row. I have read where good shooters say this is a good opportunity to press that number. Where I play at Harrahs Cherokee, I have rarely seen any number pressed up to $200. Maybe that is why I look at it as an opportunity to Lay the number.