Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

Just curious how experienced players, like Heavy, Howard, Kevin, 22 inside bet when they are not shooting?

I dont mean to speak for any of those 3 but i have played a significant sessions with each one of them. They are all really smart players and know the game inside and out. 220 has several determining factors he uses to qualify every shooter. Heavy will tell you he will be 18-6&8 on almost anyone and he is one of the best instinctive bettors i have seen. "Dice dont have a memory but they do have a history" I know Kevin will start with one bet until the shooter earns his trust. I think experienced instinctive betting is a trait most great players have even if it isnt always right.

personally i try to roll every experience from all sessions into making timely decisions. I fall victims to superstitions and personal tendencies but try to make good decisions. I find my betting decisions are often too influenced by whether i am up or down. You just have to make more good ones than bad ones. Good luck.

Some of the best rolls I've ever been apart of have been random shooters. Keep in mind that a perfect toss just simply will yield a higher likelihood of your desired outcome, nothing is guaranteed. Either way you're gonna need a lucky break, lucky bounce, etc. If someone is able to consistently repeat all the factors necessary for a good toss they still need to be on the right side of good fortune. I'd trust a good consistent shooter over a random one but it doesn't hurt to be a little lucky as well.

but it doesn't hurt to be a little lucky as wel

l

reminds me of something my dad used to say to me. We were very competitive at all sports. There came a time when i began to know or at least believe i was better than him but he would still beat me. I would say he was just lucky and he would respond "its better to be lucky than good son". Not that he didnt believe it was important to practice and be as good as possible. I think he was just driving me to get better so it didnt matter if he was lucky i could still win. Reflecting back though if you think about like this, If you are lucky you will always win because if you loose you would be unlucky not lucky. I always choose skill but like you said, a little lucky can sure come in handy.

A perfect toss and an undesired outcome is like hitting a screaming line drive right at the center fielder. Vice Versa sometimes those broken bat, half swings end up as doubles down the line. I dunno. Lol

Every monster hand has a couple of those oh shit tosses where you're sure the hand is coming to an end but a lucky bounce allows the hand to go on.

Howard was my first coach a very long time ago when controlled shooting was in its infancy.Over the years we have made trips together.He would advise me on my shooting and I would help him on his betting.In all fairness we have not connected in 5 years so my frame of reference is not very recent.
My stance has not changed.Have a betting system that can take advantage of good rolls from random rollers.The methodology should keep losses down and yet allow for big money to be made when a run comes.This year some of the best rolls have come from such shooters.
On the other hand 220 inside has a style that makes him successful and I greatly respect that style however that is not for AllahPena and myself since we are as action junkies and does not fit our personality.
You choose.

Every monster hand has a couple of those oh shit tosses where you're sure the hand is coming to an end but a lucky bounce allows the hand to go on.

Absolutely, and sometimes that perfect looking toss after it ends it. This game can be a mean mistress.

kumar wrote: ↑Sat Dec 24, 2022 5:38 am Howard was my first coach a very long time ago when controlled shooting was in its infancy.Over the years we have made trips together.He would advise me on my shooting and I would help him on his betting.In all fairness we have not connected in 5 years so my frame of reference is not very recent.
My stance has not changed.Have a betting system that can take advantage of good rolls from random rollers.The methodology should keep losses down and yet allow for big money to be made when a run comes.This year some of the best rolls have come from such shooters.
On the other hand 220 inside has a style that makes him successful and I greatly respect that style however that is not for AllahPena and myself since we are as action junkies and does not fit our personality.
You choose.

Absolutely. There are many different approaches to this game we all love and everyone is different in their approaches and risk tolerance. There's no one right answer, but with that said I think it's vital that some thought go into coming up with an approach that fits one's profile. What is good for one may not be a good fit for someone else. In addition to learning the game, one needs to learn about themselves to converge on something that fits their comfort zone.

But getting back to the original question, I have different approaches for randies that depend on several factors. But what they all have in common is that they are conservative in nature.

On a completely new unknown shooter I want to see them toss a couple to gauge my comfort level in them. If I'm at the start of a session, I'm also evaluating the temperature of the table and that can impact how I'll bet as well.

I do qualify every shooter on every hand. At a minimum, I'll generally want to see them toss a box number after setting a point before jumping in.

Some approaches I'll use include:

- no bet
- single bet on 6 or 8 to start. Collect first hit. Bet the sister on the second.
- the good old OHCM
- place both 6 and 8. Collect first 2 hits. Up a unit on both on the third.
- DP, followed by 2 come bets, then a DC. No odds. Replace them as they hit.

Regardless of which approach I settle on for a shooter, I limit the number of losses before sitting out the rest of their hand.

"- no bet
- single bet on 6 or 8 to start. Collect first hit. Bet the sister on the second.
- the good old OHCM
- place both 6 and 8. Collect first 2 hits. Up a unit on both on the third.
- DP, followed by 2 come bets, then a DC. No odds. Replace them as they hit."

220 has it nailed down. I would add another thing mentioned. A really horrible couple of rolls that end up with a box numbers might give one a hint as to warming possibilities. Maybe even a shot off the box's forhead and hitting a stack of chips ending up with a hard 8. I'm in all the way.

220Inside wrote: ↑Sat Dec 24, 2022 1:32 pm
- DP, followed by 2 come bets, then a DC. No odds. Replace them as they hit.

That’s about as safe a play as you will find. Survive the DP. Come bet PSO wins two units.

Second come coming. Red shows collect and win one unit total.

The DC is the bother. But if it travels, and if you’re lucky enough it travels to a come bet which wins a unit, then the red shows and collect two more units and lose one come bet.

Either way, you know your exposure up front. And the end exposure. Worst case is the come bets never hit and both the DO and DC GET KNOCKED OFF. call it $100 max loss on a $25 table. It will happen, but “surely” not every time.

I like to see a person toss the dice a time or two (not necessarily a hand or two) before I bet on them. However, generally I'll bet the six and eight on just about anyone who touches the dice. Including randy. A total of ten ways to win versus six ways to lose. If I bet, say $24 each on the Six and Eight and get one hit I can regress to $12 each and have a $4 profit guaranteed for the shooter. If he turns around and tosses another one right back I can press to $18 each and lock up another $2. The next hit pays me $21 - same bet and I've made $28. I'm a happy camper. I can take it all down, go up a unit to $24 again, press the number that hits only, or whatever - but I'm playing from a position of power because I have a profit in the rack and have had from the first hit - even if it's only for a $4 profit. Yeah, I may get spanked for a $48 loss right out the gate. If that happens I'm in recovery mode. All that means it that I have to be more successful on the next shooter(s) to dig myself out of that hole. Will I be? You never know. But in general, disciplined play will get you there IMHO.

Greetings,

There is only one way to bet on others when you are not the shooter, on the comeout

bet $ 5dollars on the DONT PASS LINE, then when the shooter established the comeout number you Place the [ 6 ] for 5 dollars and the [ 8 ] for 5 dollars untill the shooter shoots a 7 or the come out number.

Thats been my bet the last 65 years...YES I AM AN OLDMAN, 79 going on 80.

luck at the casino.

jaime1943.

Knick111 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 27, 2022 7:37 pm Greetings,

There is only one way to bet on others when you are not the shooter, on the comeout

bet $ 5dollars on the DONT PASS LINE, then when the shooter established the comeout number you Place the [ 6 ] for 5 dollars and the [ 8 ] for 5 dollars untill the shooter shoots a 7 or the come out number.

Thats been my bet the last 65 years...YES I AM AN OLDMAN, 79 going on 80.

luck at the casino.

jaime1943.

Have you been playing in the craps museum again? That's about the only place you'll find a $5 table these days.

Guys and gals,

It looks like 220 INSIDE is looking for me to tell you how to play on a 10 dollar table,

On the come out you play 10 dollars on DONT PASS, then after the comeout number is established You play 10 dollars on the [ 6 ] and 10 dollars on the [ 8 ] then you wait till the shooter shoots the 7 Or the comeout number.

luck at the casino.

jaime1943.

Heavy,

having problems again with my log in.

Testing Testing Testing

Lets see what happens when I hit the SUMIT button?

I think I found a way to out smart your system HEAVY, To always keep me loged in.

jaime 1943.

I have found one of two approaches helpful to me: come out with minimum across all numbers and take the bet down when it hits plus sister box number or take one or two hits and turn them off. The second is limit 4 bets / randi first on dont pass, second on come and third on come (no odds) and last on DC. If you win a bet you can replace if u choose but only 4 bets initially from rack..... when those four are gone you are done for that point. Minimizing losses on others is critical..... Another method is to put $25 or more on Dont Pass and Lay the 4 for $50 or more to cover: If 4 or 10 is point remove the lay bet and use it as odds on Dont Pass, if 5 or 9 leave both as they are, if 6 or 8 is point remove the Dont Pass and let the Lay 4 ride out.

advdel77 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 23, 2022 9:02 am Just curious how experienced players, like Heavy, Howard, Kevin, 22 inside bet when they are not shooting?

Hi Mike. I hope all is well.

At the table my initial thought, knowing probability, is that all shooters suck until they don't.
My approach on unknown shooters is super conservative. Unknown shooters include random shooters and DI's I've never seen shoot. Even DI's have crappy days. Some DI's can be consistent at being crappy. I want shooters to prove they can shoot. I'd rather risk the casino's money I've won than my bankroll money on these shooters. I reserve most of my bankroll for my own shooting.

I allocate one minimum table bet to each shooter. I'll place either the six or eight. My preference is to place the six first. I'll place the eight if six is the point. I also make a $1 hardway bet on the same place bet number. The hardway bet I replace if it rolls easy. If it hits, I parlay it. I'll work the hardways on the comeout unless it is parlayed. On the comeout, if it is a parlayed bet, I'll call the hardways off and hop them instead. I parlay the bets only once.

These are the rules I follow afterwards. I entertain myself with these rules (like a game). Let's pretend it's a $10 minimum table. Ideally, I am just waiting for the dice to come back to me.

If within three rolls, my place bet is hit, I'll place the six or eight sister number for $12 with those proceeds. I'll bet the hard six and hard eight for $1 each.

If my place bet is not hit within three rolls, the first hit I will rack $13 to collect my initial outlay and replace the $1 hardway. Next hit, I'll place the sister number and it's hardway.

Next hit, both the six and eight go up by one unit. I replace the hardway bet.

If my place bet was hit within three rolls, the next hit, I will collect and rack.

Next hit, I'll place the four and ten for $10 each. I'll then make sure I have all the hardways covered with at least $1.

From here, depending on how the day is going, I will build up and out from here. I have choices. If I think the hand is nearing it's end, I will regress down to just a $12 six and eight with each having a $1 hardway. I can build up and out again from there.

With unknown shooters, I want to put the casino's money at risk, not mine. With this method I am only risking one table minimum bet per shooter. I consider it a cost of doing business. I give full credit to learning this method of play from our APC alumni member, Pappy Van Winkle.

I will customize my betting on DI's whose shooting skills are known to me. I focus on their signature numbers and try to mimic their betting while also watching any trends at the table and I try to take advantage of those.

BD