Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I need some "professional gamblers' " advice. I'll pose the question at the end because I need to describe my frame of mind during the sessions in question.

I'm on a short winning streak. My buy-in is $600-800 with a loss limit at $350-400. I have a "reserve" of $1,000 with me but I just don't like to buy in with more. I generally tiptoe in with $32 Inside $10 PL & $10 Odds or a $10 HeatSeeker until I think I've got a feel for the table (or my own toss) at which point I'll go to $90 Inside with $10 on the 4 & 10 (or $150 Across depending on my hunch), regressing to the initial tiptoe after two or three hits. Without going into details on the 90 Inside scheme, it will have netted me at least $71 after three hits at worst (or $112 after 2 hits [at best]) before I regress to the $32 Inside scheme. (I'm just now getting used to having as much as $110 minimum or $150 in Place bets for a starting scheme. It still makes me itch, but I'm no longer afraid to follow a PSO with the same betting scheme twice. I know it'll happen, but I've yet to PSO 3x consecutively so far during this "comfort".)

In my last 4 sessions I won $1111, $125, $110, $35. Each time, I recovered from being down--repectively, in the first session I was down -$300, in the second down -250, the third down -150, the fourth down -$300. Each session's reported bottom was followed immediately by one single winning hand that put me in the profits at the numbers I specify above.

I colored up each time immediately; in the fourth session I colored up thinking I'd won $135. I forgot that I bought in with $700--I thought I'd bought in with $600. Someone VERY knowledgeable gave me some good advice a while ago--"what's your session goal? If you make your goal, pocket it and then test the table's winning potential with any overage and decide from there if it's time to cash in."

I now live 15 minutes from the casinos so trip "expenses" don't really figure into my "value per session" costs. I set a goal of winning $100-150 per session since gasoline only costs me about $5 round trip. After each of the four sessions I described, I cashed in because I had hit my goal. I also considered the history of the hand--that I'd come back from terrible starts, and I didn't want to walk away with with less than the set goal and an "it was all free play" experience.

Only when I after I got home after that wild swing in the first session--from down -300 to up +1,111 in one hand, did I look back and think, "in my euphoria of recovering (AND winning with a long hand that I threw), I forgot the second part of the advice--"test the table's winning potential with a little bit more". I mean, I gave it half a thought at the table as I colored up, but seriously, up 11x my goal, I thought, "that's good enough for me, I won't risk $150 Across or $110... "Winning" is 15% profit in my mind if my loss limit is ~$400 (3 PSOs)." (Strictly speaking, I'd violated my loss limit placing $90 Inside when I'd already suffered $300 lost.)

And so to my question--as "professional gamblers", what do you do if you've hit your goal immediately in one hand after having suffered terrible starts or long sessions that bottom out near your loss limit?

Is it called 'discipline' to leave having made your goal, or is it 'fear' or part of "bad gambling practice" to leave having recovered and not test the table for a winning trend?

Thank you!

Dork, sounds like you are doing very good a win is a win. Now let me clarify that I am not a pro but experienced. I only set loss limits generally about 50% of the buy in, never win limits I will take as much as it will give me. In your first session I would have probably locked up the $1,000 profit and see what the $100 did on the next shooter or two. When I get up I a good amount I always lock up a profit. When I get down and and battle back during a long session and the table is just a up hill battle I will take that $35 win and feel if I'm whistling past the grave yard and get the hell out of there. It is always a better drive home with a win. Four winning sessions in a row you are way a head of the field!
Cheers
Grinder

I apologize, Grinder, for not answering immediately. I wanted to have something more than "Thank you" for a response...

Obviously with so many people reading my thread and one single response, I didn't write the "essay" well enough to make my point but in the last few months I've gleaned enough advice from some authors to formulate an actual "plan" --aside from "set a comfortable buy-in and loss-limit, and have a comfortable betting scheme". I'm still playing with "scared money", but Lord knows I'm not afraid of losing. Yeow...

Since the query above, in which I left at the last session up $35, I had a catastrophic losing session where I couldn't leave the table; it cost me -$826. I'm at a loss to explain the psyche that kept me glued to the rail; the table was FULL--12 players... (But it won't happen again; I had an epiphany between that session and the next.) I came in having just missed an ALL-Everything hand. The table seemed still warm; the first hand I played I was up ~$120 and should have quit but fell prey to 3 consecutive PSO/PPSOs after 4 shooters--my rack looked like -320 at that point. Rather than leave, I played through another 5 RRs until it was my turn at the dice and PSO'd myself. ARGH. Through it all, in my "frenzy" I stuck with my 90-Inside $10/4&10 betting scheme and rode it down in flames. Yeah. I couldn't find two shooters who could hit two Inside numbers in 4 rolls.

The next day I lost another $263 and quit. At least that session took me an hour and 45 minutes to see-saw and lose two consecutive PSOs before I got fed up with the table and went home. The ONLY good news from those two sessions is that between them I pondered my play and finally remembered something Kumar told me--one doesn't have to leave the table when it's lost it's "heat"--you can reduce your bets and observe, rather than "stick to your guns" betting by rote hoping a hot hand will save you. By waiting and conserving, one can "ride the wave" when it comes. (if I may paraphrase). That advice is what made me reduce my bets and wait; curtailing my losses for the first time, ever!!

For the next three sessions, I've had good success, +$453, $101, +$851. It's how I scored that matters--

$453: buy-in for $800; down about $250 seesawing with HeatSeeker on every RR until I took the dice. One long hand netted ~$900 and I left the table after 2 hours. I pressed the 5 to $300!! (but it died there along with about $80 spread Across variously.)

$101: $800 buy-in; Heatseeker and 90 Inside for 90 minutes. Up ~$50 for about 75 minutes and finally broke $100 and quit.

+$851: This is the one I'm proudest of... seesaw Heatseeking for an hour lost me -$70; table got "hot" I recovered to +$55 (as I converted from HS to $44 Inside and Heavy's 12-18-30-42 scheme on the 6/8; everything else "Up One". So much for "hot"--a cheesy little "~15 roll" hand, ended +$55. On the next shooter I bet 90 Inside, regressed after two hits (to $54 Across) and watched the shooter run the ALL Everything. I only netted $524 as winnings because I'd layed the 9 for $300 (as the last number needed). He was sorrowful because he was down to his last $60 and had only bet 6/8 for $18 each and had a $10 PL and 10 odds (on the 4)--I don't think he hit four 6s and 8s total, and he didn't make his Point. I gave him $100 tip. With my winnings, I literally pocketed all but $150 and bet it on myself as I was the next shooter. ($90 Inside, $10 4/10, $10 PL with 30 Odds) and ran a regression to $66 Inside after two Inside hits. That hand ended up $454 total, and I lost ~$130 chasing the next shooter and so I packed it up having won ~$524 on one hand and $454 on the next hand -- which in the old days, I would have missed having colored up after the $524 win.

On an aside: I wonder if the "lay 9 for $300" was a good play but I wanted to be sure to net something. Looking back it might not have been too bright; at that point it was most of my winnings bet to net $200. As I evaluate it, after the $100 tip to the shooter, I netted almost even money; then again, if he'd have RED, I'd have made another $200... I dunno how to figure those things. Maybe my $300 Lay was right at the bubble--should I have Layed even more, or less?

But finally I'll get to my point for this post---

I have to especially thank Grinder, Kumar, and TGold for their advisories--their ideas helped me get past the results of that first terrible -$826 Loss day-- and maybe think more like a gambler than a guy who gambles at the casino... with my singular ideas of "establish a buy-in, and limit my losses" and riding my betting scheme into the dust-- to thinking and betting with a better plan... and not trying to evaluate my betting/play with a regard to "fear".

specifically, establish a goal for what to win, tread water on choppy and cold tables while waiting, pounce when it's hot and especially--use a "reserve" from the winnings to test the table after a hot hand-- Thank you, Gents for your ideas!

I was playing at Rio once years ago, using an old school regression strategy when the boxman told me, "You'll never win any money that way, Steve. You're playing with scared money." I said, "You're damn right I'm playing with scared money. I'm scared to death of losing. I worked my ass off for this money. That's why I'm up almost $1000 right now while the rest of the people at the table are losing. I'm taking money off the table while they keep pressing their bets up with their winnings." He shut up after that and never said another word to me.

For what it's worth, unless I'm the shooter, I always Lay the last point on the ATS for SOMETHING. About a third of what you'd win is a good number IMHO. It gets you out with a decent win, even if it's just a couple of hundred bucks.

As for giving back part of your win goal - here's how I play it.

I play with a win goal of $360. If I'm playing and someone catches a heater and I get up $590, after that hand is over I lock up my $620 buy in plus my $360 win goal in the back rack - $980. Odds are I'll just rack $1k back there. That'll leave me $210 to $230 in the rack, depending on whether I rack the extra $20 or not. So, I'll continue to play my regular game with that $200 plus as long as I continue to win. But if I lose money on three shooters in a row OR lose HALF of that $200 plus - I rack the remaining $100 plus and walk with an $1100 plus win. That's what you should do IMHO.

More epiphanies! Thanks, Heavy!