Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I think I've asked that correctly... I'd like advice on how to adjust my betting scheme with regard to a 4 and 10 bet. I'll outline my current betting scheme:

I'm the shooter and establish a Point on the CO roll... whatever that point is, I bet $30 each on all the Inside Place numbers, and $10 each on the 4 and/or 10, with no Odds on the PL to start. My betting scheme is based on the idea that I can roll two Place numbers before the Red, but that I won't immediately repeat the number I just rolled. (so if the CO roll was a 6, I don't expect another 6 on the next roll--hence, no Odds) (Also, I only added $10 to the 4/10 as an afterthought because I hate to hit those numbers and not get anything for it.)

Next, if I roll an Inside number (let's say the 8) I take the winnings and pull down that single place bet ($35 + 30) and make the 5 and 9 $50 each (65 - 20 - 20 leaves me $25). THEN I make the Odds bet $50 (using the remaining $25 and adding $25 from my rack. (not expecting the 8 to repeat immediately). When this system is ideal, I'll hit two paying Inside numbers first before a 4 or 10 or the Red, and it pays $95-105. Then I regress to $44 Inside or $54 Across w/a PL Odds bet of $10 and take and/or press from there. (I don't pull the Place bets down after the regression.)

When it doesn't work "Great", I'll hit the 4 or 10 before I hit two Inside numbers. Since they only pay $18, and I don't expect a repeater, I'll pull down the 4/10 bets (the sister just to build money to $38 [$18 +10 +10]) toss in $2 and press the 5/9 to $50 each. One more hit on any Inside number, and I regress as described above, figuring that the "sting" of random occurence has inflicted a cheaper $18 win on my scheme--and that I shouldn't temp fate and play for a third Place number hit on an Inside wager. In this case, the minimum I'd win would be $53 ($18 for the 4 or 10, and $35 for a $30 bet on the 6/8).

My betting scheme was wargamed at home using $120 as my base (~$150 really when adding Odds after the third roll is considered)--90 Inside, $10 each on the 4/10 (making $110) plus $10 PL.

To my question... I read that a $10 bet on the 4/10 gives up "too much" House edge. (I don't really understand what that means but I accept that it "costs" me money not to have bet at least the single-vig limit bet.) In a discussion about establishing a betting scheme in order to calculate a session buy-in, the subject of betting Across with all the Place bets equal (in my mind) came up--that the 4 and 10 bets were the same amount as the 5/9, namely, at least $25 (that's an indirect recommendation I gleaned from the author's advice). (My $10 "Corners" bets seem to baffle the dealers, and I've never seen other $25/30 Place bettors skimp on the corners, so I wonder if I'm "doing it" wrong...)

I'm not totally against a $150 Across scheme (that would allow the 4/10 as $30 bets when necessary), but it changes the PSO recovery rate, I think.

Does it make more sense to increase the 4/10 bet and thereby force me to increase my betting tolerance just because house vig skews the payoff (and my weak return on a $10 4/10) distort my ISR returns so much?

Man I hope I worded that right...

Thank you, Guys!

AGHHH!

So if the $30 Eight hits and pays you $35 you take it down and press the Five and Nine to $50 each???

The late great Sam Grafstein had a phrase I live by to this day. "You only back a winning horse."

So let's say the point is established on the Four and the first number out the gate after the point is established is the Eight. This is just like a horse race. The first pony out the gate is the Eight. Which horse do you think has the best chance of winning the race? The one out the gate first. So if you could put MORE money on one horse AFTER the horses had left the gate - WHICH horse would you bet more money on? The horse named EIGHT. So Press the damn Eight - not the Five or Nine, which are nags still dicking around in the gate, trying to buck their jockeys off. If you MUST press some other number press the Eight's stall mate - the Six. Drop $1 and Press the Six and Eight to $48 each. Next hit pays what? If you know your Sevens Times Table you already have it figured out. Six eights is forty-eight. Eight times seven is fifty-six. Now you have OPTIONS. My suggestion? If this is a randy take that shit down. You have $56 plus $35 profit in the rack. $91. Wait for the next shooter. Bit if you want more action and it's a $10 game you can toss out $44 inside or $24 on the Six and Eight and go up and out from there and still have a profit in the rack. Don't be in such a hurry to get a lot of action on the table. Get past four rolls first. Then nine rolls. Then rock 'n roll.

Hmmm. A lot to consider; but I don't usually bullfrog--though if I don't SO, most times I'll roll something Inside.
I haven't surveyed BT regularly to calculate my repeaters, but usually if I hit 2 Place numbers before the regression, it's more likely that they'll be Inside non-repeaters; that's why after the first hit I'll boost the "other three"-- the 5/9 and 6 [Odds] (in the case of 8 as the first pay off). I certainly favor stacking the 6/8 after the regression, just not after the first payoff. I'ma have to look over my records. I recall thinking my sig number is 5... but not in a 2-hit payoff and ISR scheme. (that's why, after the regression, my parlay on the 5 is usually 10-24-60-140; I'm hopin' for regressing to 24 after the 4th payoff--gnat balls--sometimes I regress at 60's payoff to 24 )

Thanks, Heavy!

Besides Heavy's comments on the merits of betting into numbers that haven't been tossed yet at the expense of ones that have hit, I've never understood the rationale that many people seem to have of placing a number that is established as a point rather than using those same funds as a free odds bet. You're just giving money up to the house in the event that the point is made for no good reason. Why make a $30 place 6 bet instead of a $30 odds bet? You don't give up anything in terms of control over the bet when it's placed versus free odds. The only thing you're sacrificing is the payout to you if the number repeats and you only have it placed versus a free odds bet. But even worse is that if you don't have enough confidence in your shot to "expect the number to repeat", which is basically the premise of your betting strategy, why bet the 6 at all and put that additional money at risk?

Every hand is different and I'm always looking for a dominant number to bet into. If I'm tossing my best inside set, one hand might wind up dominant in 6's while the next hand might be dominant in 8's. You never really know until the hand starts to develop. But I'm always looking to see what numbers I start tossing at the start of the hand to see which ones might be dominant and those are the ones I want my money on.

Hey Guys,

I don't mean to sound combative or argumentative; my words here are purely motivated only by the urge to learn how to "think right"...

My objection to the idea of pressing a bet anticipating that I'll repeat is, I don't show a tendency to bullfrog (repeat immediately) ANY number when tossing the dice either in practice (by my BoneTracker log) nor in play--except when I set for the 7/11 on the CO and toss repeat Reds. I think the most I've ever tossed on the CO is three consecutive; I've never tossed enough Reds consecutively to anticipate them enough to bet them, though... which brings me to my initial reaction to both your versions of advice for my next bet after a Place Bet payoff--that I should bet on the number that just hit.

This'll sound combative as hell, and I don't mean it that way, only as maybe an example of "contrary logic":

In essence, Heavy's advice echoes the same sentiment that you expressed so well, 220--"But even worse is that if you don't have enough confidence in your shot to "expect the number to repeat", which is basically the premise of your betting strategy, why bet the 6 at all and put that additional money at risk?"

To answer the second question first, 220, I'll not bet the PL Odds after the CO because I don't usually bullfrog. I'll bet the 6 as Odds with the money I take down from the 8 because I don't expect the 8 to repeat, but I do expect an(y) other Inside number. Statistically, that's just more of a common occurance for me than repeating consecutively. And this is only just a little less of an occurence when the Point is a 5/9... though with my toss, betting a bullfrog 5 might have a slightly better chance than even a 6/8 bullfrog.

But to your question--(if you don't have enough confidence in your shot to "expect the number to repeat",) "if you're both convinced that it's the best betting advice-- to add to the number you just hit, why not Hop that number? Do you do that? I don't ever; I don't have enough faith to "seek" that kind of result with a monetary conviction. What percentage of the time, when you have the dice, do you Hop a number you just tossed? If you do, why don't you do it on every toss? This wass my initial reaction to your advice--I don't know anyone who Hops a number on every toss; and I think that example of omission leans as a validation toward my betting scheme (for me). The contrary "me, I don't Hop" is my testimony that I don't have that confidence. I'm not looking for "action", I'm just trying to cover the numbers I think I'll hit on the next single toss.

My ISR betting scheme is to bet that I will generally hit any two Inside numbers before the Red; not that I will immediately repeat an Inside number consecutively immediately twice. I DO expect to repetively hit Inside numbers, but I bet that expectation after the regression--as I said, I'll usually run a full parlay on the 5 at least 2x before I collect anything on it (because most of the time, 5 is my signature number) while I usually run an "up one unit" on everything else--though I have more commonly lately run the 18-30-42-90 (and even 180) press on the 6/8s even with my customized 5 parlay running. But that's all with House money; I don't have the confidence when I'm using my own money to bet that I will repeat a number before the short-toss limitations of an ISR.

++++++++++++

Lastly, if I may, I think we got sidetracked from my original intended question:

I generally run 90 Inside with $10 each on the 4/10. But I read that a $10 bet on the 4/10 gives up "too much" to a House edge (the vig).

Does it make more sense to increase the 4/10 bet and thereby force me to increase my betting tolerance just because house vig skews the payoff (and my weak return on a $10 4/10) distort my ISR returns so much? Again, I hope my question is worded correctly.

Thanks very much, Gents! Respectfully, Brian

Okay, I missed the part about the Five being your dominant number. If you've proved that out in BoneTracker and those results transfer to your local tables then by all means, press to the Five if that's what you want to do. Ultimately, each of us has to decide exactly what sort of betting strategy we're going to adopt. I can tell you that I've compared (I'll say hundreds but it's probably more like thousands) of betting strategies over my lifetime and there are two type I've found that work best - depending on which approach I want to take. If I want frequent small wins and very few losses - Start with a bet that's large enough to allow me to make an initial steep regression after a couple of hits - then play an up and out progression from there, taking a couple of hits, then pressing, then taking a couple of more, then pressing up to a second regression point. Regress again, but not as deep as before. Then press more aggressively - every other hit - until the ugly number shows up.

Then there's my current play, which rarely includes a regression but has me more selective about who I bet on. I incorporate more Don't play than I used to as well as more hybrid play. But when I play the Right side I play it with my big pair on, and I'm not talking about the Six and Eight. I bet bigger and I press more aggressively with Power Presses included at several steps. I press every other hit and my goal is to get my bets up to table max and collect $7000 - $10,000 on every hit thereafter. I want to win life changing money. That's the goal.

There is, of course, middle ground in between where you can play. I might play some of that some day if I live long enough. Who knows? Right now I'm kind of enjoying what I'm doing. And I haven't gotten hurt too bad so far, because one big win makes up for a whole lot of wrong.

Not the kind of strategy I'd recommend for everyone, but ain't we got fun?