Let me eat this elephant one bite at a time:
I usually bet conservatively on a $15 table when betting on myself or a known good shooter. Below are the typical betting strategies I use.
1. $66 inside.
a. Collect the first 3 wins ($63) to then double press every inside under the payout is 50 for 1.
b. Then let it ride
.
Okay, first off, $66 inside may not be the correct amount on every known good shooter. You should be tracking these guys to see if they are tossing enough fours and tens to make it worthwhile to bet Even numbers instead of the inside numbers. Remember, the Four and Ten pay 2:1 once you Buy them, and you don't have to hit as many of them to win more money. Your first hit on either - you Buy that number for $25 and rack $16 or $17, depending on when they collect the vig. At that point that bet is paid for and you have a free bet for $25 up there. There's no stopping at the "collect $50 for $1" level on the Four and Ten. The progression is 15 - 25 - 50 - 100 - 250 - 500 - 1000 - 2500 - 5000. When you get to $1000 you will have collected $875 and you will have a FREE $1000 bet on the table. Don't sweat the money.
Now, let's go back to that $66 inside. You want to collect the first 3 wins. Then double press every inside number that's not paying 50 - 1. Well, first off, if you collect the first three times then none of the numbers are paying you 50 for 1. If you want to be collecting 50 for 1 after three rolls then you need to have $154 inside after three wins. That means you need to
win $154 on the first three wins, which means you need eight units each on the inside numbers to start so you can regress. $48 each on the Six and Eight plus $40 each on the Five and Nine should do it. Thee wins will net you $168. Then regress to $154 and you'll win $50 for $1 on each hit. Not much of a regression because it only locks up a $14 profit. So, go for $90 on the Six and Eight and $75 on the Five and Nine. $330 inside for three wins totaling $305, then regress to $154 inside locking up $151. Now we're rocking and rolling. And THEN you're going to just "Let it RIde?"
Okay, okay. I'm just pulling your leg a little here because here's the deal. You're looking for three "wins" on the inside numbers. There are 18 ways to roll the inside numbers. There are 18 ways to roll numbers that are NOT inside numbers. None of them are going to pay you squat. Six of them are going to end your hand and take your money. So fully HALF of your rolls are not going to be inside numbers. That's just the math of a random game, and that's all I can speak to because I don't know anything about your skill level, etc. However, let's say you have an SRR of 7.0 and can get one extra 8 in every 36 rolls and 1 less Seven. Do you know what that means from a pure mathematical point of view? It means the house has ZERO house edge on the 8. It really doesn't impact the house edge on any of the other numbers much to speak of. Your EDGE is on the 8. And this is one of the reasons so many DI's FAIL at betting. They don't take the time to use BoneTracker to really do the hard work and determine what their EV is on the various numbers so they'll now WHAT numbers to bet using which sets. It just bugs the crap out of me to see good shooters fail but I see it all of the time. And I'm not directing this at you. I'm just throwing it out there for anyone reading this. Pay attention, do the hard work and learn how to bet. Becoming an advantage dice player involves a hell of a lot more than setting the dice and making them look pretty flying through the air. I've seen some of the best toss coaches in the business who could toss better than anyone out there - but I never saw those same coaches win more than $300 in a session in my life. Sigh. Okay, rant over.
So recommendation on your play as described - because this is actually my play. Pass Line with typically double odds in a $15 Game. My rule is simple. I play Double odds to begin with. On a win I increase to 4X odds on the next game. 5X on the game after that. If it's a 10X odds house I go to Max odds on the fourth game and stick at that level until the hand ends. Usually I'm playing in casinos that offer at least 10X odds.
Once the point is established I'll either play $66 even or inside - depending on who I'm betting on. I'll use inside for this example since that's what I'm comparing it to. So it'll either be $66, $51, or $48 inside, depending on the point. If the shooter is a known DI, I will full press the first hit on the Five or Nine and I will Power Press the first hit on the Six or Eight. I do NOT press in Pairs, or Double Press as you call it. Here's why. I am taking what I refer to as a "dominant number Press" approach where I'm focusing on pressing the shooter's dominant number. In this case, I'm going to ASSUME that the dominant number is the first number he tosses after setting the point. It MAY not be, but I'm judging this just like a horse race. When I go to the race track I look at a horse's record and I pick a horse that has a history of winning. I also look at the jockey and I pick the jockey that has a history of winning. And if I know who the trainer is I like a trainer who has a history of winning. So if I find a horse that's a winner with a jockey that's a winner and that horse was trained by a winner - my money is on that horse. And for my money, the horse that gets out the starting gate first is already demonstrating he's a winner. He's got a head start on all of the other horses. All he has to get is one more hit and he's a length ahead of all of the other ponies. One or more hits and they'll never catch up. So let's say the Nine rolls first. It pays $21. I'm pressing it to $35 and locking up a buck. I want that dollar because I'm going to need it for that $50 for $1 hit that's coming. If any other number rolls I'm going to lock up $21, and I'll continue to collect $21 and say "Same Bet" on those number up to three times. But if I get one hit for $50 for $1 and one hit for $21 then ALL of my Place action is paid for (I don't count the Pass Line and Odds when I'm running this or any strategy - they stand alone). From that point on I have a specific Press Strategy for every number and I Press and Take every other hit on every number. It's not every other hit period - it's every other hit on that specific number, so it does require some mental juggling to remember which number hit last and whether or not you have pressed it again or not.
If the Six hits now and it pays $21 I drop $3 and press it to $42. We ONLY press the number that hit. Why? Because #6 is the Horse that came out the gate. #8 is still back there eating his oats. Forget pressing that SOB. He hasn't earned the right to get pressed. I've tossed hands with 26 Sixes and only ONE Eight. Fact. The Eight came right before the Seven. Ugh. So after you get to $42 on that Six it's going to pay you $50 for $1 on the next hit - same bet. Next hit for $50 for $1 you tell the dealer to "Make it look like $90. He gives you a buck change and keeps a dollar and does the press with the chips in hand. Next hit pays your $105. Be a class guy and drop a dollar on top of that read chip and tell the dealer to Place the Six for the Boys when you pick up your $100. Next hit pays $105 again. Tell the dealer to "go to $180 on the Six" and he'll give you $15 change. Rack it. Next hit pays $210. Next hit pays $210 again. Put on your big boy panties and drop $30 on the table and tell the dealer to "take my Six up to $420. Be prepared for the boxman to say something like, "wait . . what? How did you get from $180 to $420?" And then the dealer will break it down for him and sure enough, 180 bet plus 210 payoff plus the 30 you dropped adds up to $420. And when that Six rolls again it pays $500 for $10. Lock it up. Next hit pays $500 for 10 - tell the dealer to make it look like $900. Hey, it gets easy from here. Next Six pays $1050. If the dealer is really doing a great job for me I'll toss the $50 back and say $50 hand in for the boys. Great job, guys. The suits that are gathered around the table will smile and nod. Next hit pays $1050 again and this is where you say "Take me up to $1800 on the six. AND you'll get something like $150 change to lock up. If you haven't tossed a Hard Six by this point this would be a good time to throw $50 on it. Why the hell not. The next hit pays you $2100. It rolled easy so lock up $2000 and toss $100 on the Hard Six. The Hard Six rolls next and you get $2100 plus $900 for the Hard Six, or $3000 total. Drop $300 and tell the dealer to take your Six up to $4200 and rack $2700. Now the Easy Six comes back and you win $5000 for $100 and you ask the house if $5000 is table max on the Six or if you can go to $6000. After consulting with the floor the boxman says they'll let you go to $6000. So, you Press you $4200 by $1800 to $6000 and lock up another $4200. Then the Six rolls on more time for a $7000 payoff and you have a heart attack on the floor of the casino and the pit boss quickly comes over and secures all of your bankroll and takes your Place Bets down, but says the Contract bet, $15 on the Pass Line and $30 in Odds, must remain in play while the next shooter finishes your hand. So, the next shooter takes the dice and flings them down table and tosses three Hard Sixes in a row before finally tossing a Seven, and the casino breathed a sign of relief that your hand was finally over. Everyone asked the pit if they knew who you were and was your wife with you and how were you going to handle all of the players money to make sure that it got to his family, etc., and the floor manger said, "not to worry, the casino has a procedure for this and we'll see to it that everything is taken care of properly. Ahem. Right.
Okay, that was a rousing experience. And you think to yourself . . . bullshit. That can't happen. And I can tell you . . . uh, yeah. It's happened to me on a couple of occasions. Oh, I never got to that $6000 table max mark, but I have gotten to $4200 on the Eight before on just that press move, and I've gotten up to table max on the Four and Ten on many occasions over the years simply by planning my play and playing my plan. So let me run these progressions by you again.
Six and eight. 18 - drop 3 go to 42 - collect - collect/press to 90 - collect - collect/press to 180 - collect - collect/drop 30 go to 420. Now you have the entire sequence. 18 - 42 - 90 - 180 - 420 - 900 - 1800 - 4200 - table max Essentially you need 16 hits on a number to get to table max if you press/take every other hit. It's rare, but it happens.
Five and nine. 15 - 35 - 75 - 150 - 350 - 1500 - 3500 - Table Max - Now this one goes much faster. At least it seems that way when guys like 220 Inside or Ed Robinson have the dice. These guys toss a lot of Fives and Nines. For that reason guys like me who know their tosses are apt to skip the 15 level and go right to the 35 level (36 in Mississippi where it's a Buy bet) so we can get the bets up around th $1500 level faster. That's the rare air where the big money flies.
And I mentioned my Four and Ten progression at the top of the page. 15 - 25 - 50 - 100 - 250 - 500 - 1000 - 2500 - 5000 One of the questions I get about this one is why I jump from 100 to 250 and 1000 to 2500 instead of just continuing to double up after every hit. Simple. My bets are paid for and these are all "free" bets at this point - and I'm greedy. I want that $500 chip sliding over my way because I know as soon as I get it I'm going to bet it right back and go for that $1000 chip - and on and on and on. And you'd be surprised at how often I end up with a $1000 chip sitting there. And as I said earlier, even if I don't WIN on that $1000 chip, I've already made $875 off that number at that point so it's all good.
LAST of all, you don't HAVE to be as greedy as me. If at any point you look down at the layout and feel something dribbling down the back of your leg and your realize you've crapped your pants - it's okay to tell the dealer to "turn my bets off - I've just shit my pants" and run to the bathroom. Or, you can just look at the guy next to you and say, "Good god, man. Did you shit your pants?" and then tell the dealer to bring you down to $96 across and you'll start over once you get your sinuses cleared out.
Last Last of all. Welcome to the forum, my friend. You've come to the right place.