What's a good "can't lose" strategy seeking a "big" payoff with a Don't 4/10?
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2025 6:53 pm
I'm trying to come up with a decent play for the Don't 4 and 10. Here's my scheme--but it's not well polished yet:
I'll usually wait for 6-7 rolls and then I'll bet $100 DC and hedge that bet some with a $15 HOP-7s, $5-Yo, $1-Twelve. It won't recover everything, but at least $59 if the Yo comes and $80 on any Red. (I'm not concerned about "full" coverage--for instance, $59 on the Yo is enough for me because I feel that statistically, the Aces and 1-2 will help offset the Yo $41 shortcoming.)
My goal is to win $100 (for my net "$59") and then bet the next time with $200 DC and the same $21 Action to cover most of my original bet ($100) and let the house money ride alone (the other $100 stand naked for one roll).
Depending on the point that is assigned to my DC bet, I will usually play some kind of OHCM against a $200 DC 5,6,8, or 9 -- most commonly, I'll bet $90 each on the two adjacent numbers for a hit or two and then take them down and ride the single $200 DC bet to a decision. If the $200 DC is a 6 or 8, I'll have a $15 HW 6 (or HW8) whichever is "needed" for a slight hedge against that point.
However, I'd like to play against the $200 DC 4 or 10 differently-- (I actually ran up against this today when I had a $400 DC on the 10--but I didn't have a plan because I haven't ever played at this amount before. Usually when I'd run a $200 DC 4/10, I'd Place $50 (or $60) each on the 5,6,8, and 9 for two or three hits with a $25 HW10 and then take the Place bets down when I got scared, and either Placed something against the 4 as a hedge, but almost always just let the $200 DC-10 run to a decision and hope to "double" my money.)
But a $400 DC 4/10 is a different animal; there's so much more "room" to play... I actually thought of running $200 on the H10, and settle for "break-evens" with a $200 Place-10, but it seemed such a tepid and almost "wasteful" play, because most of the time a soft 10 or the 7 will occur before the H10. My thinking is the same for the $360 Inside scheme vs. $400 DC 10--especially when I'm contending with a random roller--in this specific OHCM $90 x 4 (Inside numbers) play against the $400, I just don't like the money-generating chances with a random roller.
But I just don't have the imagination to see the possibilities... how much should I commit to the "longshot" bet on the H10?-- all I could come up with on the spur of the moment was a $50 H10 and a $250 Place 10. It guarantees a minimum win of $100 if the shooter 7s Out, or a $100 guaranteed win if s/he soft-10s--
and the "big killing" is when the H10 is hit--$350 for the H10, plus $500 for the $250 Place10 equals -->$350 plus $500 is $850. Subtract the original "with the house bets of $50 + 250" and the net is $550. That's only $150 more than if the 7 comes against a naked lone bet of $400 DC-10. It hardly seems worth it since the HW is so rare "on call". (as it turned out, he hit the H10 and I made the "sure" $150; but I wasn't happy with my on-the-spot betting scheme)
Am I wrong with my thought process? I suppose a $250 Place 10 offers the statistical "best" "can't lose" bet.
Can someone adjust the betting amounts to take better advantage of the $400 DC-10? Does anyone have a better scheme to leverage bigger payoffs with a $400 DC 10 (or 4)? Or should I just suck it up and hope to double up by playing the $400 DC-10 naked?
Thank you!
I'll usually wait for 6-7 rolls and then I'll bet $100 DC and hedge that bet some with a $15 HOP-7s, $5-Yo, $1-Twelve. It won't recover everything, but at least $59 if the Yo comes and $80 on any Red. (I'm not concerned about "full" coverage--for instance, $59 on the Yo is enough for me because I feel that statistically, the Aces and 1-2 will help offset the Yo $41 shortcoming.)
My goal is to win $100 (for my net "$59") and then bet the next time with $200 DC and the same $21 Action to cover most of my original bet ($100) and let the house money ride alone (the other $100 stand naked for one roll).
Depending on the point that is assigned to my DC bet, I will usually play some kind of OHCM against a $200 DC 5,6,8, or 9 -- most commonly, I'll bet $90 each on the two adjacent numbers for a hit or two and then take them down and ride the single $200 DC bet to a decision. If the $200 DC is a 6 or 8, I'll have a $15 HW 6 (or HW8) whichever is "needed" for a slight hedge against that point.
However, I'd like to play against the $200 DC 4 or 10 differently-- (I actually ran up against this today when I had a $400 DC on the 10--but I didn't have a plan because I haven't ever played at this amount before. Usually when I'd run a $200 DC 4/10, I'd Place $50 (or $60) each on the 5,6,8, and 9 for two or three hits with a $25 HW10 and then take the Place bets down when I got scared, and either Placed something against the 4 as a hedge, but almost always just let the $200 DC-10 run to a decision and hope to "double" my money.)
But a $400 DC 4/10 is a different animal; there's so much more "room" to play... I actually thought of running $200 on the H10, and settle for "break-evens" with a $200 Place-10, but it seemed such a tepid and almost "wasteful" play, because most of the time a soft 10 or the 7 will occur before the H10. My thinking is the same for the $360 Inside scheme vs. $400 DC 10--especially when I'm contending with a random roller--in this specific OHCM $90 x 4 (Inside numbers) play against the $400, I just don't like the money-generating chances with a random roller.
But I just don't have the imagination to see the possibilities... how much should I commit to the "longshot" bet on the H10?-- all I could come up with on the spur of the moment was a $50 H10 and a $250 Place 10. It guarantees a minimum win of $100 if the shooter 7s Out, or a $100 guaranteed win if s/he soft-10s--
and the "big killing" is when the H10 is hit--$350 for the H10, plus $500 for the $250 Place10 equals -->$350 plus $500 is $850. Subtract the original "with the house bets of $50 + 250" and the net is $550. That's only $150 more than if the 7 comes against a naked lone bet of $400 DC-10. It hardly seems worth it since the HW is so rare "on call". (as it turned out, he hit the H10 and I made the "sure" $150; but I wasn't happy with my on-the-spot betting scheme)
Am I wrong with my thought process? I suppose a $250 Place 10 offers the statistical "best" "can't lose" bet.
Can someone adjust the betting amounts to take better advantage of the $400 DC-10? Does anyone have a better scheme to leverage bigger payoffs with a $400 DC 10 (or 4)? Or should I just suck it up and hope to double up by playing the $400 DC-10 naked?
Thank you!