Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I don't know how to form the question I want to ask so I hope ya'll will help me pose it...

I live 20 minutes from the casino. I can visit it anytime any day for as long as I want (I'm retired with no obligations). I'm a "small-time" bettor. I buy in for $1020 and my usual play is $135 Across with a regression to $78/81 Across after two hits. My goal is to win 200-500 a session. If I'm having a seesaw day, I'll settle for $100-200, but if I catch a hand that puts me up $300 (no matter what my rack looked like before that hand), I'll usually color up. There've been days when I'll take down ALL my bets except the PL and shoot for the lone $10 or $15 PL bet, because the rack showed I was up $300 if I colored up right then; mind you, most of those times the session was a seesaw and in those times I was just happy to be (back,) up at my win-goal.

I've been welcomed by several different players and groups to join whenever they're in town. This has occurred 3-4 times in the last year (I've only been here for 18 months). I like playing with other acknowledged shooters and students but I've been lucky that the table has never been full and I've always been allowed an open slot. I don't feel the need to piggyback on all ya'lls game if the table's full because I can get to the tables anytime. But I've been welcomed and appreciate it very much. In this scenario, I feel a different "social duty" to adjust my limits--I'll play until "we all quit" or I'm pounded into the sand. I've hung around up to a $1400 loss (crapless; where I didn't know the game--but I had no resentments at all--now I'm REALLY tempted to try crapless again with an Outside favoring dice toss and the knowledge I paid for ). Playing with a full table has only worked out VERY well once; most of the time, I end up anywhere between -400 to +500. Tolerable; and I've always recovered if I was behind during those group games.

Whenever these groups play together they're only here for at most 5 days and they have to "get their sessions in" with an eye on their (theoretical) session buy-in limits and their "limited availability" 5-day net win-loss. So I understand that some shooters will press harder trying to win more, or, come back from a loss. AND stay because they're among "known" shooters.

When I'm on my own I've only stayed a few times beyond my normal (time or win goal) limit for my own hand because I thought I was too grooved to quit. As I said, most days when I'm alone, I'll play until I'm ahead 2-500 or down about 3-500. I've never been a player who can psychologically set my goal for more than a $500 win--when those come it's because some single long roll paid off or I hit a $100 Hardway bet. Realistically, I know my betting schemes aren't big enough to generate $500 with normal 10-15 roll hands as my long hands.

But my new strategical thinking is being influenced by the idea that I maybe should play on to see if the table is good and perservere during a good roll with more aggressive betting for bigger payoffs--but only after I've acheived the $300-a-day-profit-in-my pocket reserve.

For example, today I colored up $951 after tips. But I didn't cross the $300 goal until a $100 H4 paid off. When it did, I took everything down and went home. No chance to see if that groove I was in was "long-term" even though I felt pretty good today about my tosses. But the Chicken Little in me said I didn't wanna go home with $700 since I knew I'd be back again this week.

I don't have to make all my winnings in a 5-day visit. Should I just forego "aggression" and the possible big payday with $300 profit in my pocket already (but no spare in the rack), and quit as soon as I cross the $300 goal? I can play everyday and usually play at least 3x a week. My strategical goal is to win "about" $1000 a week; I just don't know how that jives with being more aggressive when the table's hot.

How would you play if you could get to a table 3x a week?

Thanks, Guys!

Sometime when you have nothing better to do than watch an idiot be separated from his money watch Bluffin' Bob on YouTube. Don't get me wrong. This guy is VERY entertaining. But the story is almost always the same. Bluff gets up $10 - $40 K. Bob loses !0 - 40k PLUS ANOTHER $40 k. Bluff says, "Oh well. We'll get them tomorrow." Sigh. It's tough to be Bluffin' Bob. Bob has over 100K YouTube subscribers who pay .99 cents a month to be subscribers. That means he pulls over 100K a month in cash from YouTube which he uses to gamble with. PLUS the advertising income stream he receives monthly from YouTube. PLUS he's on every other social media platform and getting income streams from them as well. Now, Bluffin' Bob does a lot of cool stuff. Once in a while he'll take $5 - $10K of his winnings and go buy food for the homeless. Sometimes he goes and spends the $2 - $5K on pet food for animal shelters in Las Vegas. Sometimes he just hands out $1000 tips to waitresses at Waffle Shop. But it just galls me to see how much money he pisses away. I watch him playing something like $12K across on Crapless Craps and go PSO. Or he'll do that and full press every hit for six or eight hits and never take anything down trying to get every bet to table max before pulling any cash off the table. And as soon as he gets one bet to table max - it's Seven Out and he loses $20K plus he could have regressed off of to $1200 across. I'm sitting there watching YouTube shouting "Regress you idiot!" He's also a dice setter, but he doesn't know his sets. One toss he'll have the V-3 on top with the 1-5 facing him. Next toss it'll be the 2-6 facing him. Then it's the 5-1, then the 5-6, then the 6-5, then the 6-2, and he has no idea that he's using a different set every time. Multiply that times six different basic sets. But really more than that. Again, drives me crazy. Landing zone? You gotta be kidding me. And after getting set up to toss, "you gotta put a little twist on your wrist when you release them if you want to toss hardways." Where did you learn that BS Bob? This guy's killing me. I mean, he's got over a hundred thousand subscribers and god only knows how many followers and he doesn't know what he's talking about. Just press to table max. That'll do it.

I feel exactly tge same way about this guy. So incredibly frustrating to watch. I also worry that people take him more seriously than they should and try to mimic what he does. This guy is not putting out educational content. It's purely entertainment and people isn't easily confuse the two.

In working in developing new strategies lately, using AI to run simulations of 720, 7200, 72,000, and 720,000 rolls, it's stunning to see how losses compound on what seems like a very stable strategy over a short series of rolls. Over a 720 roll series a strategy might show a small win or a small loss with an SRR of 6.0. That can be attributed to freak streaks, extremely good money management with very strict loss limits, or a number of other things. But when you get out to 7200 rolls it almost always turns significantly negative, typically from a few hundred to a few thousand dollars. Stretch it to 72,000 rolls and that negative never turns positive again. There's just too much of a deficit to overcome and the losses amount to tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands of dollars. Stretch it to 720,000 rolls and the loses compound even more, from hundreds of thousands to a million or more. And the strategy, which worked fairly well over 720 rolls is an absolute failure over the long run. Now, I have come up with a strategy that's proving out positive 67% of the time at 72,000 rolls with modest wins, and fairly good wins at 7200 rolls. But it requires an SRR of 7.0 to 8.0, betting only on your own hands or those of other DI's with high SRR's, rigid loss limits with hard walk away rules, win goals with hard and fast rules for playing with excess wins over and beyond the win goal, and when to walk when the table turns on you. Frankly, the rules are such that I doubt that anyone would follow them 100%. Why? Because it is a hybrid play that requires a combination of Don't and Right Side bets and would be boring as hell to most players. But there you go.