Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I read up on the Kelly Criterion betting system, and I understand the concept of increasing/decreasing the bet by multiplying that constant ratio against the total bankroll. What I don't understand is how to figure out the actual single bet against a number.

From viewtopic.php?f=4&t=593 :

Most people who play the Kelly base their progressions on the saying, "Bet the fraction of your bankroll that equals your percentage advantage." However, this saying assumes you are playing at an advantage on even-money wagers only. A better choice would be to bet a fraction of your bankroll equal your percentage advantage divided by the "to" odds on that wager.

For example, if you have a 20% advantage on the nine and you are getting 7-to-5 odds, then the fraction of your bankroll to bet is (0.20)/1.4 = 0.14 =14%.

How does one figure out what (percentage) advantage they have over a number? I wanna say "all's I gotta do is read the Bone Tracker results, but that's practice; at home, yet".

When are you comfortable/confident enough to move up the ladder from your "usual" bet to "X% of your bankroll" because you have winnings? e. g., I may be up an extra $1000 because I had a "hot streak", but I'm such a newbie at DI, I don't have a lot of faith in my potential dice-tossing results, and I'm real leery of increasing my bets from 'minimal' to X% just because I've allotted an extra $500 (from the $1000 winnings) to the bankroll kitty.

Thanks!

I would say you need to verify your edge with a book of 7200 rolls or so. Once you have that pretty much nailed down you don't change the percentage of your bankroll you bet - you simply increase your bets based on the size of your growing bankroll - or decrease the size of your bets based on the amount of your shrinking bankroll. The trick here is to not go over the top thinking you can bet 3% of your bankroll on the six (for example) and 1% on the eight, and 5% on the ten, and 6% on the pass line with odds. Don't confuse your overall edge with your edge on individual numbers. You don't want the total of your individual bets to exceed your overall edge. Make sense? In other words, if you have an 8% edge on the game overall and you bet in the a mounts listed about you'd have 15% of your bankroll on the table and you'd be over-betting by 7%. If you're working off your overall edge you'll have to set up a ratio to your overall edge for the individual bets. I'm sure that's clear as mud by now. Anyone else want to step in and clear the water a bit?

H,

In the portion of your post that I quoted, I know the value "20% advantage on the nine" is a random number you imagined up, but where is the basis for the figure? That's what really confuses me... I don't even know where I should look in my records for an "advantage" figure.

You also said in your answer to this post, "if you have an 8% edge on the game overall"--how is that figure calculated? I appreciate your answer... mathematically, I understand it, even though in my mind, I'm 'working backwards' because I don't know where the values come from; that doesn't mean I don't understand the concept of not pushing too hard. I just havta find out how to figure my baselines (and obviously 7,200 rolls with a consistent [or singularly favorite] throwing method).