Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

I use to track individual numbers & compare them with probability when I was new to Craps. It was close just often enough for me to place too much misguided trust in it. That's how I learned about volatility & skewness. Numbers can show up way out of what Probability says or they can just va...

Not to sound like a smart ass but how I would bet depends on what I'm seeing which means watching first. Having a go to play means nothing if it's wrong for that table at this time. Don't know what will happen but I can see what has been happening and if it's inconclusive why would I even bet? Just ...

Of course there are lucky streaks but the luck is being at the correct table at the correct time when the variance occurs. See, lots of luck involved.

Just a quick followup with a definitive answer to the multiple Place bet HA question that has always bothered me and that I couldn't resolve to my satisfaction. I went the Wizard of Vegas and asked the math experts to explain and I received what I asked for plus something I found online that's a lit...

sharkbyte, Really interesting thread and kind of a big job you've taken on. Having read AlBTossin's post I have a play rather similar if it's possible to code with all the moving parts. It starts using the No 4 and/or No 10 to create a flat Don't protection to shield Place bets for a limit number of...

I’d like to suggest a play that is played several ways and while known is seldom spoken of in detail so I rummaged through my books and articles to pull the info together and share. Handled with care it and its versions can do well on choppy tables if the user has discipline. Simply put it is hedgin...

Michael, I personally bet on randies but I used my selection method knowing full well the possible results so there is never a need for me to complain. There is a wealth of posts here and other sites saying to avoid betting randies but apparently many DIs find that as hard to do as to quit smoking. ...

Michael, I'm gathering, consolidating and editing a bunch of info contained in saved articles and such from over the years that may lend some perspective to your questions. It will be a little long but I'll try to post it this weekend. I think it will be helpful to anyone betting on other unknown sh...

I agree that there is a treasure trove of info if you know what your seeing and how to use it. I sort of agree with Heavy who is speaking about himself. What I'm unsure about is the original question from Michael. Was that in regards to his own play or to play that included betting on other shooters...

KOD,

Before I reply I wonder why you respond using the stock market example which I don't think is a correct comparison. Why don't you make whatever the point you were aiming for within the game of Craps so there's no possible misinterpretation of your intent.

Kelph

What happens in billions of hands is important to the casinos but meaningless to the short term player. Regardless of whether you're a DI, RR or CF you have to play the game (or walk) that unfolds in front of you and most of the time that's not going to be perfect for the way you want to play. Analy...

I will repeat points of what I've said throughout my posts of the past. I stopped DI not because I didn't think it worked but because I couldn't maintain the level of practice I required to be good. Everyone will not be at the same DI level but more like climbers at various levels on the side of a m...

Golden Touch might have the Captain but The Manfred Mann has the Mighty Quinn who can roll a CO natural with a single die.

You'll not see nothing like the mighty Quinn


Kelph

Of course one does not have to believe in trends to bet them or whatever appears to be a trend in the player's eye. Craps is a game where decisions need to be made even if it's as simple as to not bet or let existing bets ride. Hopefully we make our decisions based on something and whether those ass...

Jofer, It's not that simple or straight forward. Variance may be a natural occurrence or created by a skill or a combination of both. If one is only affected by natural variance when it unexpectedly comes and goes then yes I believe long term will eventually show number frequency to be pretty close ...

Jofer, I think you are drawing the wrong conclusion. Statistically significant deviation certainly occurs and provides opportunity for winning a negative expectation game. However this is more of a short term thing. Such variance or the affects of such variance become more diluted as drops of colore...

I've been preoccupied with the thread on math skills and multiple Place Bet calculations. I’ve done a little digging and have come up with some interesting bits that I’d like to share at the risk of being assigned a seat on the short bus. To avoid that I’ll try my best to offer somewhat sound reason...

Maddog, As I pointed out I used the old Zeke Feinberg math from his book because it caused a lot of talk back then and I was trying to see if it would arrive at the figures irish posted. The problem with Zeke's seductive math is that the numbers are being combined as a single bet when in fact they a...

irish,

Can you PM me the site and name of thread? I'm curious to understand what was done to get to those other two numbers.

Kelph

Irish, OK, I’m up for a little fun The 6 or 8 can win 5 ways and lose 6 ways making 11 events that can affect it. If we bet either the 6 or 8 for $6 there is $66 invested in the number of possible events. 5 winning events = $65 on the 5 wins (5x (the $7 won & $6 bet returned)). $66-$65 = $1 &...