Heavy's Heat Seeking Craps Strategy

[heavy]

Heavy's Heat Seeking Craps Strategy
Copyright 2002 by Stephen Haltom - All Rights Reserved

What are your chances of winning at the craps table in a fair game? Even if you are a perfect player with rock-ribbed discipline and played the most conservative of bets, you still have to buck the minimum house edge of 1.41%. But even if there were no house edge your chances in a random game would be no better than 50/50.

The only way to really win at any random game is to take advantage of the trend. Trends are streaks or identifiable patterns. In craps the tables will be trending toward hot or cold perhaps thirty percent of the time. They may actually be hot or cold for another ten percent of the time. The other sixty percent of the time the trend may be choppy with decisions hopping back and forth, both ways. The key to winning is protecting your bankroll during those choppy times, while positioning yourself to take advantage of the next trend.

There are two philosophies regarding betting and trends. The first school of thought says buck the trend. In other words, always bet opposite of the last decision. This might not be a bad move on a choppy table. The second school of thought says follow the trend. When seeking out a hot shooter this is the correct way to play. Let the dice lead the way - and you follow.

The most conservative of betting strategies rely strictly on flat betting either the Pass or Don’t Pass, and the Come or Don’t Come. Many players utilize these bets to follow the trend, betting the same way as the last decision of the dice - or in some instances betting the decision before the last decision. Often times they will play a progression strategy such as the Paroli or the Fibonacci. Both are good ways to play. But the player has no choice in the numbers when he plays the Line or Come/Don’t Come bets. He is truly at the mercy of the dice.

Next to flat betting, the most conservative wager on the craps layout is the Place bet on the six or eight. The house edge on these wagers is just one tenth of one percent higher than on the flat bet. However, in this case the player has his choice of two very good numbers.

The problem with place betting is that it immediately places money at risk. A quick point-seven can be devastating to the player’s bankroll. Therefore, the player should chart the tables and look for certain indicators before placing money at risk. And once the player decides to place money in action he should follow the old adage, “Don’t test the depth of the water with both feet.”

The Heat Seeking Craps Strategy offers many player advantages. First of all, it positions the player to score a substantial win with very little downside risk. When played properly the player will never have more than three “at-risk” betting units per hand. Since there is little money at risk the minimum bankroll required to play is relatively small - as little as $150 in a $5 game. And unlike systems that require you to count the number of tosses before entering the game, you do not have to stand idly by the table. You do not have to write anything down or perform any complex mathematical calculations in your mind. You simply watch for certain entry keys and play by a specific set of simple rules.

Does this mean you will win at every session? No. Again, at best you have less than a 50/50 chance of winning in a random game. Long, hot rolls are few and far between. However, by playing a safe, conservative strategy you can find the hot shooters and profit from them. The strategy has a built-in money management feature that helps position you for unlimited winnings while minimizing losses.

Qualifying Shooters may seem like a waste of time to you, but good shooters do tend to have certain things in common. Here are some of the things I've noticed through the years and chart for:

1. Any inside number - the 5, 6, 8, or 9 - repeats during a shooter’s hand.

2. Multiple hardway numbers roll during a shooter’s hand.

3. The shooter makes his first pass and gets beyond roll three of his second hand.

4. The shooter throws consecutive sevens on the come out roll.

5. The shooter throws consecutive elevens on the come out roll.

6. The shooter places and wins any one-roll proposition or hop bet.

7. The shooter takes the time to carefully pre-set the dice and executes a gentle consistent controlled toss.

Just as there are indicators marking the correct time to enter the game, there are indicators that tell you not to enter the game, or if you are already in the game to place no further action until you see another Positive Indicator. Negative Indicators include:

1. The shooter sevens out without making his Pass.

2. The shooter throws a craps number on his come out roll (unless he had placed prop action on that particular craps number - in which case this is a Positive Indicator.)

3. You lose a come bet to a 2, 3, or 12 craps.

4. One of your come bets travels to the 4 or 10.

5. A casino employee cautions the shooter for any reason.

The Play: Let’s assume you are at a $5 table and you buy in for $150. Take $30 in chips and place them in your front chip rack. Take the remaining $120 and place it in the back rack. Those six chips you placed in the front of the rack are all you need to get started. And remember, you are going to limit your downside risk to just three units.

Conversely, when you win you will place your winnings in the front rack along side your remaining action chips. When the dollar value of the chips in the front rack exceeds $35 the player may step his play up to the next level.

Let’s say the shooter has the dice and establishes a point of five. He tosses the dice again and throws a six. He continues to toss and throws an eight, a ten, and another six. He has repeated an inside number - a Positive Indicator.

Bet 1: Drop three of your red chips on the table and tell the dealer to place the six and eight for $6 each. You will receive $3 change and he will set up the bets.

Bet 2: Place $5 on the Come.

At this point you have $12 action on the six and eight. This is hedged on the next roll by the $5 Come bet, so you have only $7 at risk to win $7. You have a total of ten ways to win on the six and eight versus six ways to lose on the seven.

The shooter rolls the dice again and one of four things happens. He makes his pass, he throws a box number, he throws a craps or eleven, or he sevens out. If he sevens out, the series ends with a net $7 loss. If he throws a craps number and you lose your Come bet you must stop betting until you note another positive indicator. If he makes his Pass or throws any box number your Come bet will travel to that number.

Let’s assume the next number to roll is the nine and continue with our play. The come bet travels to the nine. You now have three units at risk, one unit place action each on the six and eight plus a one unit flat bet on the nine.

Bet 3: Play $5 on the come.

Once again, the $5 Come bet has a hedge effect against your other wagers. You have three units in action between the previous Place and Come action. However, you only have two units at risk.

Now let’s assume the shooter gets the dice and throws another six. A couple of things happen at this point. First of all, your come bet travels to the six. Next the dealer will pay you $7 for the $6 six place bet. He will also ask if you want odds on your six. At this point you tell him “no” and ask him to bring you down on your place bet on the six. You still have three bets working; a $6 Place bet on the eight and Come bets on the six and nine. More importantly, you have locked up a $7 win. So while you have $16 on the layout, you only have $9 at risk. Let’s continue our play.

Bet 4: Play $5 on the come. This time the shooter rolls a four. You now have $21 on the layout with $14 - three betting units - at risk. At this point you have four numbers covered. You may not place any further action until one of these bets wins. This is the highest risk play of the Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy - yet there are still less than three betting units at risk.

Let’s assume the eight rolls next. You collect an additional $7 for the place bet, but since the bet does not come down you make no additional wagers. You still have four bets working. Now let’s assume the six repeats on the next roll. Since the six is a Come bet you will be paid a flat $5 and the initial wager returned. At this point you hand the dealer $6 and tell him to “Place the six back for six dollars.” When playing this strategy you will always have the six and eight working for you unless you find yourself with more than four bets working. Then you must come down on either the six or the eight. The best practice is to come down on the number that is farthest away from the shooter’s point.

Let’s say the shooter makes his pass and throws the five on the next toss. You won a total of $19 for the last series. You have two flat bets working - the four and the nine. These are contract bets and are working on the next come out. You also have $6 each place on the six and eight. These are off on the come out roll. You have a total of $22 on the table. Once the point is established you will have only $3 at risk due to the earlier wins. Since the shooter made his last pass you may now place a Pass Line bet.

Bet 5: $5 on the Pass Line.

On the come out roll the shooter throws a 3-craps. This is a Negative Indicator. You do not place another wager until you see a Positive Indicator.

The shooter gets the dice again and establishes a four as the point. Since your flat bet on the four was working the dealer pays you $5 and returns your $5 wager. You now have $6 each on the six and eight plus a $5 flat bet on the nine for a total of $17 action. The $5 loss on the come out roll was offset by the subsequent win on the four. You still have $19 locked up and are guaranteed a $2 profit regardless what happens at this point.

At this point you have options. You could come down on the six and eight and leave only the flat bets working. This would increase your guarantee for this shooter to $14. Or you could continue to play as before, flat betting and seeking out the hot shooter. Let’s assume we do the latter.

Bet 6: $5 on the Come.

At this point the strategy progresses as before, the player never risking more than three units and never having more than four bets working. The player continues to place his winnings in the front rack until he accumulates in excess of $35. This is his key to step up his level of play. Take one chip from the front of the rack and tell the dealer you want single odds on one of your come bets. On each subsequent win repeat the process until you have single odds on all of your come bets. Then, on the next win, if you do not already have it you place the point.

Continue to feed your winnings into the front chip rack until you have accumulated $70. This is your key to progress to double odds on your come bet. Only increase your odds as you collect wins, and increase your odds on only one come bet at a time.

Each time the dollar value of the chips in your front rack double you may increase your odds bet by one unit. Continue this strategy until you reach the maximum odds available in that particular casino. Then increase the size of your flat bets from one unit to two and run the progression again.

This simple place/come betting strategy allows the player to see plenty of action while minimizing risk. It forces the bets to pay for themselves first while taking advantage of the lowest vig bets on the layout. Will it win 100% of the time? No system can promise that. But long, hot hands are what most players are looking for in the game. The Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy will help you survive until the hot shooter comes along. Then - it’s money in your pocket.

[traveler]

This is one of my favorite ways to wait around at a table for the dice to come back

traveler

[Shiraz]

Hi Heavy: Excellent Strategy. Suppose you have played this enough times and almost everytime you have won & your Bank Roll is now much more than doubled. My question is that what is the best thing to progress. At $5 table, do you start with $60 instead of $30, or do you stay with $30 and double your odds once your come bet goes to the number? In other words do you increase your flat bet or odds?
Thanks. Shiraz.

[Shiraz]

Ok ! I found the answer in the second last paragraph of your article, which explains when to increase flat bet & when to increase odds amount. Thanks anyway. One more question - for bank roll of $150, what is win/loss goal ?

[traveler]

Shiraz

My guess here would be that this one does not have a win goal. I have always thought of it as a strategy to have fun at the tables with minimal risk and lots of action. As to loss level, that would mirror my table loss level for that session.

On a choppy table it works pretty well. On a cold table like any scheme it is going to lose if some of the shooters don't get to 6 or 7 numbers with a couple of repeaters. On a hot table you are right in the middle of the action and positioned to press if you get the feeling. Or, stick with the program.

traveler

[heavy]

Think of the Heat Seeker as something to do OTHER than the "Five Count" when you want to keep in the game without raising eyebrows. I mention this in all seriousness as word is circulating about people being 86'd from the table for standing there and not betting (Five Counters).

The Heat Seeker has served a lot of our guys well. I recall one player who showed up to Vegas for a seminar many years ago - with only $800 or so to play with for the weekend. We put him on the "envelope" system with $80 per session to play with for 10 sessions. He played the Heat Seeker pretty much exclusively that weekend. When all was said and done he'd pretty much doubled his bankroll. Funny how things like loss limits, win objectives, and a strategy will work.

[heavy]

I get a lot of questions about my old Heat Seeker. This is a strategy I developed in the late 90's. For many years it was one of my go-to plays, especially on those occasions when I was just marking time at the table - waiting for a hand to develop. It's been awhile since we've bumped it up for you new guys to read - so here it is.

[HornHighJoe]

Seems to be very intriguing strategy. Especially as you said, to keep you in the game compared to the five-count.

I do have a couple of questions.

1) Would you recommend that after a shooter qualifies and eventually sevens-out, that you would continue to do this strategy on every other shooter, or stop and wait until you have the dice again. Or to put in other words, the ultimate goal of this strategy, not to try and make money but to get you involved in the game so you can still shoot the dice and not get 86'd if you had used the 5-count.

2) In your experience say if the shooter makes his point, then decides to pass the dice and leaves the table. When the next shooter continues the roll and sets the new point, do you see him as the same old shooter, or as a new shooter and ignore the previous pass that was made?

3) Say if the shooter makes the first pass then sets the new puck on the 6. They roll 11, then 4 then hits the 6. They the set the puck now on the 8. Do we still wait 3 rolls again or just 1 number since he threw 2 numbers the previous roll?

Thank you.

[heavy]

Personally, I'd handle all of the above like this. Re-set and start over after every "bad" seven. Good sevens are no problem. The hand just continues.

[Dark Side]

Heavy, what if the 6 or 8 becomes the point from the start, do you place it?

DS

[heavy]

Nope. No need to. However, I do like to have that third unit in action so typically I'll "surround" the point in that case. If the 6 is the point I'll place the 5 and 8, for example.

[Dark Side]

That's what I thought, wanted to be sure.

Thank you ...

DS

[Dark Side]

RE POST

Heavy, quick question.

You say to never have more than four bets up at any time? Does this include the PL or just the box bets?

DS

[crapsjourney]

Jeremy has posted a good video of it here