Baccarat Tie Bet

[heavy]

I was asked on another thread if "see a tie - bet a tie" extended beyond the first wager. In other words, if you win that bet do you continue to make it until it loses or do you just lock up the win and go back to the regular game. It's a good question and I'll shoot you the answer from my perspective.

First, let me give you my see a horn - bet a horn reasoning. There's a 17% chance that a horn number will show on the next toss of the dice. That's about one in six - the same odds as the seven showing next. But when DI's have the dice you'll frequently see streaks of two, three or more horn numbers in a row. This may be a function of the set they are using or it may be because their toss is "off" and they are continually making the same mistake. I don't care as long as I can profit from it, and it's been my experience that I can profit on this class of shooters betting see a horn bet a horn.

This is not the case with baccarat. There's less than a 9% chance of a tie showing on the next hand at baccarat. There are no DI's at baccarat, just the Player and the Bank in a (usually) totally randomly dealt game. Mathematically, unless you are counting cards (which is nearly impossible at baccarat) you should never play the tie bet. However, like the horn bet the tie bet does have a tendency to clump. This clumping is why I am willing to risk a few bucks on it for an 8 - 1 payoff.

Now here's where the baccarat voodoo comes into play. Walk by any baccarat table and who do you see playing? Odds are there will be half a dozen Asian players at the game. And if you watch it long enough you'll see one or two of them meticulously tracking every decision - suddenly shouting "tie line!" Now, I don't know what the hell these guys have seen that has led them to believe it's time to bet the tie. But I do know they play a hell of a lot more baccarat than I do, and I've seen enough of them win the stupid bet that I'll follow their lead. So that's often my key to toss out a first tie bet. Scientific? Not at all. But I sure do like it.

[flextimeLV]

Thanks, Heavy! I'll take that to mean 'one and done.'

I read some prior posts you made about players yelling 'tie line' and hitting it more often than not. I recently played Baccarat at the Harrah's Metropolis ($5 min always) and heard another player get excited about 'tie line' (only English I heard that session), and sure enough, lightning strikes. What in the world are they seeing...not finding anything on it from Professor Google.

[heavy]

Beats the hell out of me. It is possible to gain a marginal edge at Bac by card counting a hand shuffled/dealt game. But that is a rarity anymore so it's beyond me. Crazy, ain't it?

[mssthis1]

A shoe heavy in 10's would be more likely to have a 0/0 tie but there's no way for it to ever get high enough to offset the HA.

Since Asians feel the number 4 is bad luck and the numbers 3 and 7 if I remember correctly are good luck, perhaps the result of the previous hand is what they go on?

I always thought they were talking about dinner. Thai. Thai.

[stratocasterman]

Happy 2019 New Year!

You knew I would have to jump on this and go back to my Baccarat games played/tested spreadsheet for some stats. Heavy peaked my interest again. I love stats and in a game with so many, numerous results, IMO, Baccarat tends to really lean towards the stats percentages.

IMO, confirmation bias weighs in greatly on this subject, especially to those of us who have played thousands of shoes of Baccarat. IMO, “See a Tie, bet a Tie” IS a decent bet and some stats here will shock you I think. Also, know that Heavy, LondonShooter and I had discussed this awhile back. We agreed the Tie bet was not a favorable bet BUT, there might be times when it was appropriate.

Being here in the Philippines, 95% of the players I see ARE Asian players and trust me, Heavy is absolutely correct, especially with the Chinese gamblers. They study the big board and “Tie Lines” and sooner or later you will see them get all besides themselves excited. “Tie Line” they will point out for all to see and they jump all over it! Not me! They’re guess is as good as mine and if you decide NOT to bet it, your probably in the 90% tile of correctness NOT to bet it.

I personally don’t really hold much merit in their Tie Line calculations of guessing ANY single result Tie. FlextimeLV, IMO, they aren’t SEEING anything but, superstition and confirmation bias. It is a haphazard, very low % chance bet as Heavy pointed out. If I EVER bet on just a first single result Tie bet, it is only after I see a Banker “Super Six” result. Yes absolutely, that is my favorite confirmation bias bet in the casino, I admit. I just seem to see it happen way too many times and that is my allotted “sucker bet” for the outing.

I physically went back through the last 60 Baccarat shoes I have actually played in two different casinos and came up with the following stats:
Average amount of Ties per shoe = 7.6 Of those Ties, the Total number of Ties per shoe ranged from 5 each to 15 each.

OK, here it comes! A whopping 25 out of 60 shoes had at least one “See a Tie, bet a Tie” result for (42% of the shoes!)

10 of those 25 shoes had TWO “See a Tie, bet a Tie” results and 3 of those 25 shoes had THREE “See a Tie, bet a Tie” results.

To score a TRIPLE, “See a Double Tie, bet a third Tie” only results in three shoes (1/2%). I have seen this numerous times…but. Funny thing was in my stats, the total amount of Ties within the shoe, of the triple Ties in these three shoes, was just 7.

One other stat was the average Total of Ties in the shoe where there was at least one “See a Tie, bet a Tie”. That average Total number of Ties in the shoe was 9.3.

Worst case scenario, to me, is that you could bet the “See a Tie, bet a Tie” the first seven times and lose. Then bet the eighth time for a Win. Maybe that’s what the casino is banking on to play even with their stats.

I tend to think the odds might be slightly better in our favor but, it’s a best guess probably. IMO, the only way to find out is to CONSISTANTLY bet the Ties. If you don’t, it’s more than likely going to KILL you just spot betting it just like “See a Horn, bet a Horn” right?

[Tgold]

Good topic Heavy. Thx Stratocasterman for doing the data analysis .
I think there is some merit to "see a tie bet a tie." My motto is "see a tie--do the tritie." So when I see a tie I will wager two tie bets. If another tie shows I will wager tie one additional hand. I don't wager ties as a major part of my game,however, I do ration out 8 wagers for tie bets so a tie win will equal 1.0 base units. I utilize a few triggers for a tie bet, although I typically only do the see a tie do a tritie.
Sometimes we can find a tie wager opportunity near the latter part of a shoe.



All the best, Told