Dave's System
Posted: Tue Aug 09, 2011 11:15 pm
PART 1
Topic: "Dave's" system (Read 9,558 times)
2fist
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"Dave's" system
« Thread Started on 9/11/05 at 22:13 »
Hello to all,
Although I do frequent this website, this is my first actual post. I'm writing about a system that I learned from a guy who's retired and plays everyday. His name is "Dave" and thus I've named it "Dave's" system.
Here's how it works:
1) Dave buys in for $500 at a ten dollar table every morning (yes seven days a week) at the same casino when they open. "When they open?" It's a riverboat casino.
2) Without qualifying the table or the shooters whatsoever, Dave starts immediately betting the DP for $10 with no hedge at all.
3) Once a point is established, he lays the following odds: 6/8= $60 lay, 5/9= $75 lay, 4/10 = no lay. Yes, that's correct, he never, ever lays the four and ten.
4) After point is established he begins making $10 DC bets. When those travel, he places the odds above depending on what number it is. He never hedges with hardways, yo's, nothing.
5) He keeps on placing DC bets until he's either been hit a total of two times (DP or DC)from the same shooter, at which time he takes all remaining odds down, leaves flats working. Or the shooter sevens out.
6) IF the shooter knocks only one of his bets down and then sevens out, Dave goes right back up on him and starts over as if this is a new shooter.
7) He quits when he can see $200 profit in his rack. I've seen him do it in as little as three minutes and I've watched him for three hours. He, friends and the dealers have all attested that he has made money with this system the last 97 out of 100 or so days. I can honestly say that I have never seen him walk away a loser. However, I know there are times he's still playing long after I've left. In fact, just last week he told me after I left he had played another ten hours before calling it quits!
Other notes:
- If first $500 buy in is lost, he brings out another $500 and will keep doing so up to $3k. After he's in over $1k, he starts laying $180 against the 6/8, $150 against the 5/9 and still nothing ever against the four and ten. OF course, at those levels, his flat bets go up accordingly as this casino offers 10x's odds.
-Dave never shoots the dice himself and he only plays one session per day.
-No, the casino never gives him heat. In fact, they all like him as he's always sure to tip them before he leaves.
I have used this system and went twenty-four days in a row winning with the same $200 goal this past June-July. However, unlike Dave, I limit my losses to $1000 per day and won't go any deeper. He's up about $20k year to date so he can afford to go $3k deep and walk away still ahead.
No, I haven't ran this against any software, i.e. "RNG's". This is all live play with money on the line!
Anyone ever heard of this system? Thoughts?
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Heavy
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #1 on 9/12/05 at 6:11 »
Hey 2fist -
First off, welcome to the board and thanks for jumping right in and posting Dave's System. Very interesting.
You surprised me with that no-lay on the four or ten. Most folks I know would play that strategy just the opposite of the way Dave plays it, laying maybe $200 on the four and ten and less on the inside numbers.
Actually, if you go strictly by the math it doesn't matter how much you lay as the free odds bet is a zero sum game over the long run. But hey - it sounds like it's working well in live play.
Personally, I don't like having more than two Don't bets up at a time. I feel like it's giving the shooter too many targets.
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Dylanfreak
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #2 on 9/13/05 at 4:23 »
I ran Daves System through 17 sessions of my recorded casino rolls and ended with a $620 profit.
I did it assuming a $5 DP laying $30 odds on a 6 and 8 , $45 odds on the 5 and 9 and no odds on the 4 and 10. I also did not stop at a loss limit or a win goal but just played the whole session of rolls.
I would take down the odds and quit making new wagers after any two losses which included losses to naturals as well as a number with the layed odds getting killed.
Out of the 17 sessions 11 ended positive and 6 ended negative.
A $620 profit is not bad at all.
Dylanfreak
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #3 on 9/13/05 at 9:53 »
Dylan,
Thank you for the research. I'm just wondering what your results would have been if you did not count the naturals and elevens as a loss.
Dave doesn't count those as losses. He only counts a "hit" when either of his DP or DC bets are taken down. Also, as I said, if a shooter takes down only one of his bets before sevening out, he starts over completely with the same shooter.
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Dylanfreak
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #4 on 9/13/05 at 15:54 »
2fist
I`m not sure I understand "if a shooter takes down one bet before sevening out, he starts over with the same shooter".
I will try soon a $5 DP /DC laying $45 odds on 5 and 9 and $30 odds on 6 and 8 and only taking down odds if two wagers with odds layed have been killed
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #5 on 9/13/05 at 21:04 »
Dylan,
In other words, what if we ran the numbers not counting losing on a natural or yo?
You said you ran the numbers counting these as losses in order to get to the two losses. He never counts those as losses. He only counts a shooter as hitting him twice when his DP's and DC's get knocked down.
The other thing is if a shooter has only hit one of those DP's or DC's once, and then sevens out, he starts over on that shooter the next come out fresh. In other words, as if he is a new shooter because he only hit one of his numbers.
It's an interesting system. It's worked for me. Enjoy.
2Fist
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Dylanfreak
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #6 on 9/14/05 at 5:22 »
OK 2fist,
I think , I got it.
Dylanfreak
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shiraz
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #7 on 9/14/05 at 12:54 »
To: 2fist - Dave's system is interesting. Please explain what you said,"if a shooter takes down only one of his bets before sevening out, he starts over completely with the same shooter."
Supposing Dave has DP bet with 3 DC bets, all layed with odds, and the shooter makes the point, which means Dave lost his DP bet. Now what would be his next bet ?
Thanks - Sam.
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #8 on 9/15/05 at 19:58 »
Wow,
I had to read this a few times over.
I've been playing a Dp, DC, DC, DC system for months now and to be honest laying odds on those numbers seems like suicide. As a matter of fact, when one of my bets establish a 6 or 8 I PLACE money on those numbers to hedge my bet so that it washes. If I establish the 5 or 9, I kinda get this 'oh shit' feeling. Ironically, I stopped laying odds on the 4 and 10 cause they kept hitting those too, so I guess I don't have any numbers, lmao.
I haven't run this against anything yet, and I like feedback that you've recieved so far, an if I get time I'll run this on my practice table and against Zumma. If someone wants to throw me some random pages (1 thorugh 279), I'll run it top down in Zumma until I get a session decision and give the results. I don't want to pick the pages to seem like I picked good ones or bad ones.
biffle
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #9 on 9/16/05 at 11:11 »
Biffle,
I agree with you, when I first saw Dave palying this system, I thought he was nuts for laying the six and eight.
However, when I discussed this with Dave, his argument is that "the seven is the most powerful number on this board, in that it should statistically show up the most..."
Obviously there will be times when a table gets hot and that's where Dave and I differ. He will keep on playing as much as 8-12 hours to get his goal of $200. He'll also go deep into his pockets, laying the 6/8 for $180 and the 5/9 for $150!
I set a personal session limit of $1,000. All I can say is this thing works. Check it out and let me know what your research shows.
Thanks much,
2fist
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shiraz
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #10 on 9/16/05 at 13:52 »
2FIST:
I am awaiting to get your answer about my quetion on the board.
Thanks - Sam.
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hector
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #11 on 9/16/05 at 23:16 »
2fist, I shoot from the dont if the table is empty.( I usually open the table because I know the time it opens) Soon as a crowd gets in , I'll stop shooting when it's my turn unless the table gets a little warmer, I switch side. On the CF'ers, I'll make three DC and lay dble odds on all numbers, incl. the 4 & 10. , like Dave, I never play the prop.'s or the field unless the shooter is rolling goodies...When I shoot, I usually will 7-out on the 4th roll as I'm using my favor 7 out dice set. Sometimes, it will take longer so I switch to another grip ... Done pretty good so far. I buy in for $300 and start with $15 flat bets , If one of the my no. gets knock off, I'll replace it only once and wait for the final out come.Hector
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #12 on 9/17/05 at 7:30 »
Shiraz,
The answer to your question is that he would put up another DP bet. Remember, he waits for a shooter to hit him twice. Whether it's one DC and a DP bet, whether it's two DP bets or two DC bets or any combination, doesn't matter.
He keeps putting up bets until his bets with lays have been knocked off twice. Again, naturals don't count and yo's on the DC don't count.
2fist
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Bob
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #13 on 9/17/05 at 21:35 »
Just wanted to jump in here with a brief off- topic :
hector from Brazil:
It is literally amazing to see all the international persons on this Board and to communicate in the blink of an eye. My wife's cousin's son just married a gal from Ipanema, in Ipanema. They fell in love with her and your countrymen and women. However, I surmise you are from the US(?) or relate in good Americanese.
Please give us a rundown on how gambling is down there. Does your timezone correlate with one of ours, which one?
BIFFLE: A moniker with a bit of difference and maybe attitude.. I just was watching ESPN this morning and NASCAR standings and a name Biffle was in those standings. Any connection or relation?
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #14 on 9/19/05 at 21:42 »
I ran Dave's System against 5 pages in Zumma. Certainly not an exhaustive study, but fun nonetheless. Since no one gave me 5 random pages like I asked, I started with page 20 (because page 1 is a horrible Don't player page trust me), and went every 20th page just to make sure I wouldn't run into the same shooter. Well, I certainly did not have that problem.
Four out of five (pages 20, 40, 60, and 100) won Dave's $200 win limit within 4 shooters so I stopped. The 5th one lost $500 after the 6th shooter (page 80) so I stopped there and did not go to Dave's $3000 loss limit (or the $1000 loss limit). Page 80 hit nearly every 6 and 8 that established, which usually happens to me.
Page 100 hit 5 7's in a row on the CO on shooter #3, but still won $70 on that shooter.
I modified this post to include the actual totals.
Page 20 +210 after 2 shooters
Page 40 +360 after 3 shooters
Page 60 +210 after 3 shooters
Page 80 -550 after 6 shooters
Page 100 +200 after 4 shooters
Total for 5 'sessions' +430 in what amounted to about 1.5 hours of play.
If someone wants to give me some more random pages, I'll run them.
Bob, I'm not sure what the attitude comment was, but I hope I wasn't negative to you or 2fist, if so then SORRY!!
biffle
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #15 on 9/21/05 at 9:31 »
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Biffle,
Interesting results on Dave's system!
2Fist,
Since you've played this live, and have seen "Dave" play as well, have either of you reached the loss limit frequently? It reads that Dave has a loss limit of $3k and you have it set at $1k. It appears you might be on to something with the % win at 97/100 for Dave and you at 24 consecutive wins too! That added with Biffle's tally is impressive.
Best regards,
scout
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #16 on 9/21/05 at 10:09 »
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Scout,
I have personally never seen Dave lose. He told me he has been to his loss limit 3 times out of the last hundred plus sessions. I marvelled at this, but have confirmed those claims with dealers whom I have known for years.
I personally have hit my loss limit about half a dozen times over this past summer. One thing about this particular system I have noticed in researching my session results is that whenever I was in a session over an hour and a half, I lost.
On the hand, I reach my goal within fifty minutes or less 90% of the time! The system isn't flawless as no system is when going against a negative expectation game, but I do enjoy it. It's been the best system I have played for don'ts and I've played many.
2-fist
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #17 on 9/21/05 at 10:13 »
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2Fist,
Thanks for the reply. Is your goal also $200? If it is, hitting $200 in less than a hour 90% of the time is phenominal!
Best regards,
scout
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bigmikej
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #18 on 10/30/05 at 0:41 »
Hi Guys;
Good thoughts from every one.
What is key to making this type of play is that he is only risking $10 on the come out and then getting odd bets up that will yield $50.
I have mixed feelings about not laying the 4/10.........you have to win two to equal what you loose on one......on the 6/8, 5/9, just depends on how the dice are flowing....that is the luck aspect of the game.....the 7' on average will win 62%-66% of the time but again you loose more money than the amount you stand to win........so you need luck to beat the averages.
I guess that is why sometimes as 2Fists says that sometimes he makes his nut in minutes and sometimes it takes hours>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.mikej
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #19 on 11/3/05 at 9:39 »
2fist,
Your comment about hitting your goal 90% of the time within a hour rings clear. I spoke with an individual who managed a casino in LV a while back that confirms your experience. He stated that most wins are determined within an hour.
Looking back at my trials and tribulations at the tables, I should take note of it. I remember reading somewhere the percentage of time a player will recovery vs. amount of time (not $) played. The findings were shocking!
I believe the MP eludes to the like in an article regarding a bad trip and his loss limit being around 50% of bankroll. If memory serves me correctly, his finding were to limit his loss limit significantly below 50% of BR.
Any case, I hope you have continues success at the table with this play.
Best regards,
scout
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #20 on 11/3/05 at 10:38 »
Scout,
Here we are in the beginning of November and I thought I would update you.
Last month, I played twenty-one days and won eighteen of those days. The three days I lost totalled $1,680. The eighteen days that I won netted $3,915.
I can also say that my wins are still almost always under an hour. I agree with what your source said, no matter what system you're using, anytime you're there longer than an hour, you're probably not going to win. There was one session in the middle of the month where I played three minutes. Of course the temptation is there to say, "well, maybe I can keeep going and win another two hundred."
I honestly think it's the ability to walk away after a goal is reached that keeps people ahead and not giving all of it or more back.
Good fortunes to you,
2fist
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #21 on 11/3/05 at 11:04 »
2fist,
I believe your right! I had that conversation yesterday at the tables. Most players agreed with the discipline. It's following it, however, that counts. The same players agreed that they don't follow their instinct, and leave, when their goal is reached.
Congrats on the successes!
Best regards,
scout
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #22 on 11/7/05 at 20:19 »
2fist,
I ran some more tests, but first a question: have you or Dave ever hedged the hard 6 or 8? In my runs on my table, about 30% of the time that they hit, after establishing, they hit hard. This seems to be an extrodinarily high percentage as they do not seem to hit that much for Just Win, but I was just curious. Anything over 10% is a net win on that hedge, plus keeps the bankroll running.
I ran 5 sessions on my table today and won 4 and lost 1.
+200 even
+265
+220
+320
-510
I also ran pages 25,45,65,85, and 105 in Zumma. Unfortunately, pages 25 and 105 were not good pages. Now, keep in mind that even though Dave doesn't chart (neither do I), I start at the top of these pages with the first shooter and work down.
Page 105 starts like this:
First shooter 7 7 7
Second 11 7 7 3 11
Third 11 7
Nine naturals in the first 13 CO's, ouch. Even though it's only $10 a pop, that set the tone for the page.
Page 85, in case anyone is interested, was unreal. I was down $415 twelve shooters in and went on a tear. Starting with shooter 1283 in Zumma, it is one of the best Don't sequences you could ever hope for, especially if you are a DP multiple DC player (like Just Win is). We are not just talking Point-Seven out. These guys rolled almost all the box numbers each time without repeating them and THEN sevened out. I'd be crying if I ever saw that live.
Shooter 1284 went 6 10 4 5 8 7
Shooter 1285 went 6 10 9 8 4 7
I've had those individually, but never back to back.
2fist let us know how you are doing, I may try this live sometime soon. 85% is better than 70%
biffle
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #23 on 11/7/05 at 21:30 »
Biffle,
Thanks for the input. The answer to your question about hedging the 6/8 with a hardway wager is "no". We never hedge any bets. When I first met Dave, he was really clear about not giving into those middle bets. Too much edge for the house.
I'm comfortable with my playing this system, because unlike Dave, I do chart the table before I start. I didn't always do that, but the past several weeks I have been. It's worked better for me.
Before, it seemed like many sessions started out with me being down $100-200 and then relying on the system to come all the way back and then some. I don't like sitting through those draw-downs. Now it seems like my sessions are getting shorter and shorter. Yesterday I played eight minutes and today was nineteen minutes.
Good fortunes,
2fist
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #24 on 12/5/05 at 9:43 »
Just wanted to post an update. Dave has stepped up his play in recent weeks. He's now laying the following amounts using a $25 flat bet:
6/8 = $240 lay
5/9 = $300 lay
4//10 = still no lay
His win goal is now $500. Although he's still winning, I want to add that two dealers told me a week ago he was down $9k at one point in his session. He battled all the way back and walked away a winner after playing fourteen hours! I'm still playing the system the way I have. I played eighteen sessions the month of November and won sixteen times. To this day, I have never won so consistently with a system.
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #25 on 12/5/05 at 15:18 »
Hi 2fist,
Congrats on your success! 16/18 is very impressive. I think I would have to stick with the play as well! I hope Dave continues his march to success too.
His change to a higher goal is interesting, especially with his loss reaching $9k momentarily. He certainly has discipline, playing 14 hours to recover!
Thanks for the update 2fist.
Best regards,
scout
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nicklemidnight
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #26 on 12/6/05 at 19:44 »
2fist:
Interesting that Dave has stepped up his play. With his lays going from $60 and $75 level to the $240 and $300 level, has he likewise increased his loss limit? Has his loss limit, too, increased four times, from $3,000 to $12,000? -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #27 on 12/6/05 at 21:27 »
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I stopped by to read a post or two because I still wish everyone good health and good luck. I still have not played and still have no intention to.
I wanted to add two things here. I still belive that Dave's system wins just as 2fist says it does, but I also had to post my own actual results (for my own justification?).
On a side note, I am dealing on the side for a local company called Jackpot Games out of Cleveland that does parties and casino nights. I deal BJ, Craps, and Hold Em, but I try to get Craps when I can. Although I am not running anything on my practice table anymore, I 'run' tests during the casino events. If I cannot make the bets myself, I actually give a player a bankroll and have him make the bets (teach them how to play Dave's way) without telling them it's Dave's system. Anyway, the results speak for themselves. The method wins over 90% of the time as usual....
Except when I played it live in a casino. I played it exactly as 2fist does and I won 6 and lost 8. Every time I played they would hit my numbers like a sniper shooting ducks in a pond. I posted about this before, so that's all I'll say about that.
I will say that I had the idea about progressing up as Dave did because eventually it does have the potential to make up the losses in a huge hurry, IF you are lucky enough....but a $9k risk for a $500 win? wow.
I guess that's why he is still playing and I am not.
biffle
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #28 on 12/7/05 at 8:05 »
Nickelmidnight,
Yes, Dave has equally pressed up his stop loss limit. For example, just yesterday I saw him at the casino and he had been playing three hours plus and was up $280. Dave has won alot of money this year playing this system.
He plays every single day. So although a $12k stop loss seems high, we have to take into account the fact that he's up six figures this year.
Biffle, believe me, the times when I do hit my stop loss limit for the session, I wish I had more to put down on the table to keep going. Part of me has seen this thing win so much and so consistently that I'm sure it would come back. However, I know that would throw all of the numbers off. I don't have Dave's bankroll and string winners all year to afford a $9k stop loss. Also, I don't think I could mentally handle seeing that kind of dough out there.
With what I've made this year using this system, I have decided to step it up to where Dave was when i met him:
6/8 = lay $60
5/9 = lay $75
stop loss $3k
I'm going to start this up the first of the new year. Of course, i'll keep updating progress or setbacks. Best wishes.
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nicklemidnight
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #29 on 12/7/05 at 18:50 »
2fist:
The "brilliance" about the way Dave plays is his win goal. And in going to a $12,000 loss limit with a $500 win goal, it's BETTER than when he had a $3,000 loss limit and a $200 win goal.
John Patrick explains it on Page 27-28 of his "basic" book on craps. It's the concept of being willing to accept a very low win goal in relation to what you're willing to risk. As Patrick puts it:
"Have you ever taken $100 to the casino and gotten ahead $10. Of course you have. Many times. OK, if it's so easy to win $10 with $100, then it should be just as easy to win $100 with $1,000, or $1,000 with $10,000. It's the exact same percentage. " . . . The problem is you don't want to accept a $10 profit (risking $100), because that's beneath you . . . "
So true, Mr. Patrick! Few of us are willing to settle for "just 10 percent." But let's analyse what Dave is doing. When he had a daily win goal of $200 and had a loss limit of $3,000, Dave was comfortable with winning just 6.66 percent of what he was willing to risk. Think about it, that $200 was equal to just 6.66 percent!
Now that Dave has gone to a $500 daily win goal and a loss limit of $12,000, he's cut it even further! A $500 win goal as a percentage of a $12,000 loss limit is being willing to settle for just 4.16 percent!!! Good grief, a piddlin' 4.16 percent! John Patrick continues (on Page 28):
"Go a step further. If it's so easy to win $10 with $100, then it ought to be a snap to win $5 with that same $100. That's a 5 percent return. Using that same percentage table, a minuscule 5 percent return, which is very easy to reach, increase your bankroll to $5,000. Play until you get that 5 percent goal. That is $250 profit per day. Suppose you went to the casino 200 times a year. That's $50,000 profit, taking just 5 percent returns."
I give a "tip of my hat" to Dave, and I know John Patrick would be very pleased with this application of his concept. That low percentage is the "brilliance" of what Dave is doing. And it's another confirmation of the wisdom of John Patrick and his books. -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
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kmikefree
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #30 on 12/7/05 at 20:23 »
AMEN
How true you are nicklemidnight. I have been gambling
only a couple years now, but in the early days, before I realized it was me against myself not me against them, everytime I would lose, I would always be up 20-50% or more and then the stupidity would kick in. Now I try not to gamble as much, and just play when the odds are in my favor.
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #31 on 12/7/05 at 21:49 »
Nickemidnight,
Yes, I totally agree with what you're saying and this truth came out immediately when Dave first gave me this system back in June of this year.
How many people go to the casino with $100 looking to make $500? Or they go with $200 looking to make $1000? Then again, like you point out, if we asked everyone at a craps table how many were there with $500 would walk away with a $50 profit? Not many. Dave has totally changed the way I think about gambling this year.
Look at Wall street. How many money managers would be happy with a 5% return every day they traded stocks? Are you kidding, there would be a mob of people and investment bankers trying to hire that savvy individual.
Think about it, with a properly bankrolled strategy, you could earn percentages like that just about every time you hit the casino.
I can attest that I've been using this system since June and have used a $500 stop with a $100 win goal and I'm up substantially. First year I can say that ever in my gambling forays.
Best wishes!
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #32 on 12/8/05 at 6:45 »
2fist:
Your kind words are appreciated, but John Patrick is the person who deserves the praise. We owe so much to that man! What I would give to spend a day at the tables with John Patrick!
May I ask a further question or two regarding your observations of Dave and his system? When Dave has a $500 buy-in loss, does he take a break and leave the table, OR, does he buy in again right away for another $500?
Same question, different twist: When Dave has to buy in for another $500, does he stay at the same table (continuing play with or without a break), OR, does he go to a different table? -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #33 on 12/8/05 at 9:29 »
Nickelmidnight,
Please don't take my last post as an attempt to steal thunder from John Patrick. I have thoroughly enjoyed his books and his advance craps book is my favorite all time read on the game. I was simply trying to further drive the point home.
To answer your question, no, Dave doesn't walk away from the table when he loses an initial buy-in. In fact, he doesn't walk away with any subsequent losses and buy-ins. About the only think I've seen Dave do differently when buying in over and over is switch tables at some point. All of this is rooted in his thinking that the current streak will soon change and he doesn't want to miss it.
Also, Dave's stepped up play in recent weeks has him buying in initially for $2k. If he loses this first buy-in, he'll re-load for another $2k.
Good gaming.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #34 on 12/10/05 at 10:42 »
Oh, certainly I wasn't thinking you were trying to steal any thunder from John Patrick! Sorry if my words may have come across that way!! I was just expressing my respect for John Patrick.
Let me dig a little deeper about how Dave plays. You indicate Dave DOES switch tables at some point after, apparently, two or more buy-ins. Please get inside his head and ask him whether he has specific criteria to make the decision to switch tables. This is very important to me, as I have begun "testing" Dave's System in Las Vegas (at a reduced level of betting). -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #35 on 12/11/05 at 22:19 »
I can't wait to try this system. I, too, have always had reservations about laying odds on the 6 and 8, but the results have convinced me to give it a go.
NM I can't agree w/you more on Patrick's quote. That is one of the major things I have taken away from John's books. The other key item I learned from John is that the player must have the discipline to stick with BOTH the win goal and the loss limit. Percentages, multiples and all that stuff goes right out the window if the discipline is not there. I know NM has it and it is obvious that both Dave and 2fist have it also. Keep it up guys.
Happy Birthday, biffle.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #36 on 12/26/05 at 16:48 »
I did a ran a Wincraps simulation of Dave's System.
The following are my results After 194 rolls and a starting bankroll of $500:
Bankroll:
High: $845
Current: $845
Low: $125
Average: $558
Bets Decided: 169
Bets Won: 95
Bets Lost: 74
Net Win: 21 12.43%
HS
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #37 on 1/3/06 at 10:07 »
Happy New Year to all,
In keeping with consistency, I did want to update my progress using Dave's system. This past December, I did not use the system as much as I have been. I played Dave's system for eight sessions and won seven of them.
Winning session profits: $1585
Losing session loss: <$448>
Net Profit: $1137
However, as I've stated on Irishsetter's board, I'm making it my goal to rely strictly on my own shooting and cease betting the table. I did make alot of money using Dave's methods this past year, but I know I would have made alot more betting on just me. Many of you have told me that you've ran a number of tests and you can see that the system makes money overall.
This is true... it does make money. One of the trade-offs is you may find yourself in a negative equity session for hours sometimes. Also, the fluctuations in your bankroll are quite volatile. I feel that my own shooting will yield positive results with alot less negative volatility.
Best wishes for 2006,
2Fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #38 on 1/4/06 at 8:26 » [Quote]
Regarding "Dave's System" I took a bit of cash to the casino this past week for a trial run. I found that the pucker factor of placing DP bets with odds on every roll was a bit too much for me, plus it strained my meager bankroll. I felt like I was giving the shooter too many targets to hit. So, I went with the DP with either $30 odds on the 6/8 or $45 odds on the 5/9. I then went with two DC wagers with odds if the number was a 5,6,8 or 9, no odds on the 4 and 10. This gave me three don't side bets. If I lost two wagers to any single shooter - DP or DC, no more bets on this shooter. (this saved me from the guillotine on a CFr's 3-pass hand)
I limited myself to the two DC bets both for personal pucker factor reasons and that most shooters will seven out within 3-5 rolls. The system was working well. The one aspect I do like about the don't side is that ALL don't bets are paid upon the roll of one number - the seven. On the do side each number must be rolled to make it pay, so multiple rolls are necessary to have all pets pay.
I did modify the plan a bit in that when it came my turn to shoot, I placed a DP bet and after the point was established, placed the 6 and 8. I then set the 3V and tried to roll as many sixes and eights as possible. I think a steep regression here would also be a good thing. Then if I made my point all I would lose is the $10 DP bet which is offset by the winnings from the 6 & 8. Should the seven appear, I lose the 6 & 8 bets (which should be paid for by now) and win the DP wager.
The session went well. The table was so cold at the start, I reached my win goal on the frst two shooters. However, this being a test run I decided to hang around at least until I could shoot and see how it went. Unfortunately, three of the next four shooters had winning hands so my bankroll was dwindling. The last shooter made three pass line winners. Fortunately the next three went 7-out without much fanfare. When I got the dice it was $10 DP with $18 6 and 8 on a point of 9. Hit the 8 then a regression to $12 6 & 8. All-in-all a 15 roll hand with three paying numbers before the 7.
Color coming in.
Session stats:
Charted for a cold table
Buy-in = $200 (yea that's low but it's all I had that day)
Loss Limit = $100
Win Goal = $50
Session low= -$95
Color in $265
Time at the table 45 minutes
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #39 on 1/10/06 at 21:28 » [Quote]
Good job Caveman. Adjustments are a funny thing, they'll look great one session and terrible the next, but thats craps. Keep up the good work and the wins.
2fist - you mentioned on 12-7 that you were stepping up your play to match Dave's original method, meaning a re-buy after a $500 loss and so on. In you last post, though, it looks as though your one loss matched your regular $500 loss limit and then you stopped (as you had been doing most of the year). Are you back to the $500 buy in with that as the stop loss, or are you going up the Dave's original $3k loss limit at all?
Also, you mentioned that you only bet on yourself, but I did not see anywhere whether you said that you set for the 7 at any particular time. I do when I get one or two bets established, but I was curious if you did.
biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #40 on 1/10/06 at 22:10 » [Quote]
Biffle,
When I posted that message on December 7th, those were my intentions. However, I went out to Vegas the second week of December and decided on taking advantage of the $2 minimum and 100x's odds game at the (casino name deleted per ProBoards TOS). Shooting from the do's, it took me about a day to get dialed in, but I never looked back. It got me to thinking about all of the money I've waisted on other shooters and betting the table. I realized that even though I made money with Dave's system, I could have made more if I didn't bet the table at all and just relied on my own shooting.
Then, I read MP's total series on "regression avoids depression", and that was the icing on the cake... no more betting on the table and other shooters.
Thus, I did not step up my play level at all using Dave's system. As of the first of this year, I have not played Dave's system one time.
When I bet on myself now, I shoot from the do's. I have not bet anyone else. I must say this takes even more discipline than I needed when I was playing Dave's system. So far, I am doing well, making the same or more than I was playing Dave's system, but my bankroll does not go through the wringer of ups and downs it did before. In fact, I'm pretty close to even most of these sessions now. Good luck with it.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #41 on 1/12/06 at 22:53 » [Quote]
So...I'm not the only one that gives up on methods that win over 70% of the time (well over 90% in your case), lol.
I get the regression angle. I would probably do something similar if I didn't have to drive 4 hours each way to play. You never said how long your sessions are now, or what your profits/wins/losses are (not that you need to, I was just curious). It's just that you were winning 95% of the time, by my calculations, in mostly under an hour. I obviously was as frustrated as anyone by CF/RR's, and some of my trips (remember I was taking 2 days away from my family sometimes) would end with very little profit, dead even, or even a loss or two. If I won 95% of my TRIPS at my win goal, I'd be much happier than I am now.
I'm curious to know what your win percentage is going to be, and I wish you luck, but we won't know for a while. I hope that you update us here as Dave's method seemed to have done very well for you.
Good Luck.
biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #42 on 1/17/06 at 10:46 » [Quote]
Biffle,
I believe this game is all about evolution. We evolve as players and hopefully utilize the things we've learned to help us to become even better at a game where few succeed in the long-run.
It's true, I was winning with Dave's system most of the time. However, I was getting tired of the ups and downs during the session with my bankroll. Now, my money is at risk less as it's only on the layout when I have the dice. I can go for larger gains now because the volatility in my bankroll is at a much lower level.
In other words, where I was putting $500 (my 50% stop loss based on $1000 buy in) at risk to make a $100, I can now use that same $500 to generate $200-300!
"How do you do that?"
Well, I think you would agree that it's easier to make more money when you're coming from being down say $60-100 as opposed to being down $300-400. Not only that, but there's also the psychological factor - you can shoot better when you're down less or up than you can when you're down deep.
As you know, Dave's system at times can get you close to that stop loss quick! I had to rely on my own shooting many times to pull me out of the hole. Why go through all of that? Since playing this way, I have yet to have a session where I'm anywhere near my 50% stop loss. Knock on wood, I hope it continues, if it doesn't I'll adjust.
Don't get me wrong... Dave's system is still the best system I have played as far as playing a table. If I HAVE to play the table, that's the only system I will use, but I don't HAVE to play the table.
As far as session length, it varies now because I have to wait to get the dice. I've been averaging anywhere from four to eight hands. This can take anywhere from an hour at the tables to as long as two hours plus depending on table conditions.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #43 on 3/5/06 at 15:08 » [Quote]
Played "Dave's" system in Vegas last week. Bought in for $500.00 every time and followed it exactly. The only difference was that when I got up $200.00 I kept playing until 2 DP/DC bets were wacked then quit. In other words I rode the don't streak as long as possible. I left up $850.00 for the 2 days I was there.
Fantastic method - I will try it in St Louis next week also.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #44 on 3/28/06 at 16:46 » [Quote]
So once a point is establised the play is to lay against all 4 numbers,or just the point if its 5/9 6/8, then 2 DC's with odds?
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #45 on 4/12/06 at 10:17 » [Quote]
I fully understand why 2Fist has drifted away from using Dave's System. But I was wondering: How have others been doing using Dave's System? -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #46 on 4/25/06 at 14:55 » [Quote]
NMidnight,
I actually did play Dave's system a week ago. I was with a buddy of mine, the $15 tables were full and I got bored. Now, this has happened many times since I stopped using Dave's system and started betting only on myself.
However, A fight had almost broke out between two dealers and two patrons. Then, there was a stick change, security was there, the whole deal. The table had been hot for an hour and it just went down like a sinking ship!
It got so bad, I would have been a fool not to capitalize on those conditions. So I played Dave's system, and boy was I glad I did! Like I said, $15 dollar table, so that was my flats, and I was playing $120 behind the 6/8, and $150 behind the 5/9. I had about $2k in chips on the rack when I started and I looked at my watch... 8:30pm.
By the time 9:05pm came around I was up $1200. Now normally I would have stopped several hundred dollars before that, but I decided to keep playing and see how far I could ride this ice cold table. My rule at that point was the first shooter to knock two of my bets down is my sign to color up.
10:22pm....
There had been a stick change and the energy started changing. One shooter hit two of my bets and after he had made his point, I colored out. By this time, I colored out for $4798. Thus it was a $2750 profit after tipping the crew the $48!
No, I'm not going back to playing this system like last summer. I will say that this goes to show again why Dave is enjoying retirement making $1400 per week playing craps!
Kindest regards.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #47 on 4/26/06 at 6:12 » [Quote]
I am heading to AC in 2 weeks, does anyone have a WinCraps Auto bet file of Dave's system? I tried to create one this morning, but it is complicated to program. I think that it is a little too rich for my blood, but I will try it out on the computer.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #48 on 4/28/06 at 12:15 » [Quote]
I have just run into this thread, looking for a system for a friend, a down on his luck don't player. My question is what if you lay on the 4/10 instead of the 6/8. So lay $45 on the 5/9 and $50 on the 4/10. Has anyone ran the Zumma, or win Craps or live play to see if there is a difference in results for Dave's System???
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #49 on 5/24/06 at 11:11 » [Quote]
Hi,
What is Dave's system??
New to the forum, and craps. Reading ALOT, and favoring the DP and DC.
I do OK until a shooter hits a bunch of points.
7Guy
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Topic: "Dave's" system (Read 9,558 times)
2fist
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"Dave's" system
« Thread Started on 9/11/05 at 22:13 »
Hello to all,
Although I do frequent this website, this is my first actual post. I'm writing about a system that I learned from a guy who's retired and plays everyday. His name is "Dave" and thus I've named it "Dave's" system.
Here's how it works:
1) Dave buys in for $500 at a ten dollar table every morning (yes seven days a week) at the same casino when they open. "When they open?" It's a riverboat casino.
2) Without qualifying the table or the shooters whatsoever, Dave starts immediately betting the DP for $10 with no hedge at all.
3) Once a point is established, he lays the following odds: 6/8= $60 lay, 5/9= $75 lay, 4/10 = no lay. Yes, that's correct, he never, ever lays the four and ten.
4) After point is established he begins making $10 DC bets. When those travel, he places the odds above depending on what number it is. He never hedges with hardways, yo's, nothing.
5) He keeps on placing DC bets until he's either been hit a total of two times (DP or DC)from the same shooter, at which time he takes all remaining odds down, leaves flats working. Or the shooter sevens out.
6) IF the shooter knocks only one of his bets down and then sevens out, Dave goes right back up on him and starts over as if this is a new shooter.
7) He quits when he can see $200 profit in his rack. I've seen him do it in as little as three minutes and I've watched him for three hours. He, friends and the dealers have all attested that he has made money with this system the last 97 out of 100 or so days. I can honestly say that I have never seen him walk away a loser. However, I know there are times he's still playing long after I've left. In fact, just last week he told me after I left he had played another ten hours before calling it quits!
Other notes:
- If first $500 buy in is lost, he brings out another $500 and will keep doing so up to $3k. After he's in over $1k, he starts laying $180 against the 6/8, $150 against the 5/9 and still nothing ever against the four and ten. OF course, at those levels, his flat bets go up accordingly as this casino offers 10x's odds.
-Dave never shoots the dice himself and he only plays one session per day.
-No, the casino never gives him heat. In fact, they all like him as he's always sure to tip them before he leaves.
I have used this system and went twenty-four days in a row winning with the same $200 goal this past June-July. However, unlike Dave, I limit my losses to $1000 per day and won't go any deeper. He's up about $20k year to date so he can afford to go $3k deep and walk away still ahead.
No, I haven't ran this against any software, i.e. "RNG's". This is all live play with money on the line!
Anyone ever heard of this system? Thoughts?
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Heavy
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #1 on 9/12/05 at 6:11 »
Hey 2fist -
First off, welcome to the board and thanks for jumping right in and posting Dave's System. Very interesting.
You surprised me with that no-lay on the four or ten. Most folks I know would play that strategy just the opposite of the way Dave plays it, laying maybe $200 on the four and ten and less on the inside numbers.
Actually, if you go strictly by the math it doesn't matter how much you lay as the free odds bet is a zero sum game over the long run. But hey - it sounds like it's working well in live play.
Personally, I don't like having more than two Don't bets up at a time. I feel like it's giving the shooter too many targets.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #2 on 9/13/05 at 4:23 »
I ran Daves System through 17 sessions of my recorded casino rolls and ended with a $620 profit.
I did it assuming a $5 DP laying $30 odds on a 6 and 8 , $45 odds on the 5 and 9 and no odds on the 4 and 10. I also did not stop at a loss limit or a win goal but just played the whole session of rolls.
I would take down the odds and quit making new wagers after any two losses which included losses to naturals as well as a number with the layed odds getting killed.
Out of the 17 sessions 11 ended positive and 6 ended negative.
A $620 profit is not bad at all.
Dylanfreak
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #3 on 9/13/05 at 9:53 »
Dylan,
Thank you for the research. I'm just wondering what your results would have been if you did not count the naturals and elevens as a loss.
Dave doesn't count those as losses. He only counts a "hit" when either of his DP or DC bets are taken down. Also, as I said, if a shooter takes down only one of his bets before sevening out, he starts over completely with the same shooter.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #4 on 9/13/05 at 15:54 »
2fist
I`m not sure I understand "if a shooter takes down one bet before sevening out, he starts over with the same shooter".
I will try soon a $5 DP /DC laying $45 odds on 5 and 9 and $30 odds on 6 and 8 and only taking down odds if two wagers with odds layed have been killed
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #5 on 9/13/05 at 21:04 »
Dylan,
In other words, what if we ran the numbers not counting losing on a natural or yo?
You said you ran the numbers counting these as losses in order to get to the two losses. He never counts those as losses. He only counts a shooter as hitting him twice when his DP's and DC's get knocked down.
The other thing is if a shooter has only hit one of those DP's or DC's once, and then sevens out, he starts over on that shooter the next come out fresh. In other words, as if he is a new shooter because he only hit one of his numbers.
It's an interesting system. It's worked for me. Enjoy.
2Fist
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Dylanfreak
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #6 on 9/14/05 at 5:22 »
OK 2fist,
I think , I got it.
Dylanfreak
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shiraz
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #7 on 9/14/05 at 12:54 »
To: 2fist - Dave's system is interesting. Please explain what you said,"if a shooter takes down only one of his bets before sevening out, he starts over completely with the same shooter."
Supposing Dave has DP bet with 3 DC bets, all layed with odds, and the shooter makes the point, which means Dave lost his DP bet. Now what would be his next bet ?
Thanks - Sam.
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #8 on 9/15/05 at 19:58 »
Wow,
I had to read this a few times over.
I've been playing a Dp, DC, DC, DC system for months now and to be honest laying odds on those numbers seems like suicide. As a matter of fact, when one of my bets establish a 6 or 8 I PLACE money on those numbers to hedge my bet so that it washes. If I establish the 5 or 9, I kinda get this 'oh shit' feeling. Ironically, I stopped laying odds on the 4 and 10 cause they kept hitting those too, so I guess I don't have any numbers, lmao.
I haven't run this against anything yet, and I like feedback that you've recieved so far, an if I get time I'll run this on my practice table and against Zumma. If someone wants to throw me some random pages (1 thorugh 279), I'll run it top down in Zumma until I get a session decision and give the results. I don't want to pick the pages to seem like I picked good ones or bad ones.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #9 on 9/16/05 at 11:11 »
Biffle,
I agree with you, when I first saw Dave palying this system, I thought he was nuts for laying the six and eight.
However, when I discussed this with Dave, his argument is that "the seven is the most powerful number on this board, in that it should statistically show up the most..."
Obviously there will be times when a table gets hot and that's where Dave and I differ. He will keep on playing as much as 8-12 hours to get his goal of $200. He'll also go deep into his pockets, laying the 6/8 for $180 and the 5/9 for $150!
I set a personal session limit of $1,000. All I can say is this thing works. Check it out and let me know what your research shows.
Thanks much,
2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #10 on 9/16/05 at 13:52 »
2FIST:
I am awaiting to get your answer about my quetion on the board.
Thanks - Sam.
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #11 on 9/16/05 at 23:16 »
2fist, I shoot from the dont if the table is empty.( I usually open the table because I know the time it opens) Soon as a crowd gets in , I'll stop shooting when it's my turn unless the table gets a little warmer, I switch side. On the CF'ers, I'll make three DC and lay dble odds on all numbers, incl. the 4 & 10. , like Dave, I never play the prop.'s or the field unless the shooter is rolling goodies...When I shoot, I usually will 7-out on the 4th roll as I'm using my favor 7 out dice set. Sometimes, it will take longer so I switch to another grip ... Done pretty good so far. I buy in for $300 and start with $15 flat bets , If one of the my no. gets knock off, I'll replace it only once and wait for the final out come.Hector
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #12 on 9/17/05 at 7:30 »
Shiraz,
The answer to your question is that he would put up another DP bet. Remember, he waits for a shooter to hit him twice. Whether it's one DC and a DP bet, whether it's two DP bets or two DC bets or any combination, doesn't matter.
He keeps putting up bets until his bets with lays have been knocked off twice. Again, naturals don't count and yo's on the DC don't count.
2fist
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Bob
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #13 on 9/17/05 at 21:35 »
Just wanted to jump in here with a brief off- topic :
hector from Brazil:
It is literally amazing to see all the international persons on this Board and to communicate in the blink of an eye. My wife's cousin's son just married a gal from Ipanema, in Ipanema. They fell in love with her and your countrymen and women. However, I surmise you are from the US(?) or relate in good Americanese.
Please give us a rundown on how gambling is down there. Does your timezone correlate with one of ours, which one?
BIFFLE: A moniker with a bit of difference and maybe attitude.. I just was watching ESPN this morning and NASCAR standings and a name Biffle was in those standings. Any connection or relation?
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #14 on 9/19/05 at 21:42 »
I ran Dave's System against 5 pages in Zumma. Certainly not an exhaustive study, but fun nonetheless. Since no one gave me 5 random pages like I asked, I started with page 20 (because page 1 is a horrible Don't player page trust me), and went every 20th page just to make sure I wouldn't run into the same shooter. Well, I certainly did not have that problem.
Four out of five (pages 20, 40, 60, and 100) won Dave's $200 win limit within 4 shooters so I stopped. The 5th one lost $500 after the 6th shooter (page 80) so I stopped there and did not go to Dave's $3000 loss limit (or the $1000 loss limit). Page 80 hit nearly every 6 and 8 that established, which usually happens to me.
Page 100 hit 5 7's in a row on the CO on shooter #3, but still won $70 on that shooter.
I modified this post to include the actual totals.
Page 20 +210 after 2 shooters
Page 40 +360 after 3 shooters
Page 60 +210 after 3 shooters
Page 80 -550 after 6 shooters
Page 100 +200 after 4 shooters
Total for 5 'sessions' +430 in what amounted to about 1.5 hours of play.
If someone wants to give me some more random pages, I'll run them.
Bob, I'm not sure what the attitude comment was, but I hope I wasn't negative to you or 2fist, if so then SORRY!!
biffle
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #15 on 9/21/05 at 9:31 »
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Biffle,
Interesting results on Dave's system!
2Fist,
Since you've played this live, and have seen "Dave" play as well, have either of you reached the loss limit frequently? It reads that Dave has a loss limit of $3k and you have it set at $1k. It appears you might be on to something with the % win at 97/100 for Dave and you at 24 consecutive wins too! That added with Biffle's tally is impressive.
Best regards,
scout
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #16 on 9/21/05 at 10:09 »
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Scout,
I have personally never seen Dave lose. He told me he has been to his loss limit 3 times out of the last hundred plus sessions. I marvelled at this, but have confirmed those claims with dealers whom I have known for years.
I personally have hit my loss limit about half a dozen times over this past summer. One thing about this particular system I have noticed in researching my session results is that whenever I was in a session over an hour and a half, I lost.
On the hand, I reach my goal within fifty minutes or less 90% of the time! The system isn't flawless as no system is when going against a negative expectation game, but I do enjoy it. It's been the best system I have played for don'ts and I've played many.
2-fist
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #17 on 9/21/05 at 10:13 »
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2Fist,
Thanks for the reply. Is your goal also $200? If it is, hitting $200 in less than a hour 90% of the time is phenominal!
Best regards,
scout
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bigmikej
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #18 on 10/30/05 at 0:41 »
Hi Guys;
Good thoughts from every one.
What is key to making this type of play is that he is only risking $10 on the come out and then getting odd bets up that will yield $50.
I have mixed feelings about not laying the 4/10.........you have to win two to equal what you loose on one......on the 6/8, 5/9, just depends on how the dice are flowing....that is the luck aspect of the game.....the 7' on average will win 62%-66% of the time but again you loose more money than the amount you stand to win........so you need luck to beat the averages.
I guess that is why sometimes as 2Fists says that sometimes he makes his nut in minutes and sometimes it takes hours>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>.mikej
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #19 on 11/3/05 at 9:39 »
2fist,
Your comment about hitting your goal 90% of the time within a hour rings clear. I spoke with an individual who managed a casino in LV a while back that confirms your experience. He stated that most wins are determined within an hour.
Looking back at my trials and tribulations at the tables, I should take note of it. I remember reading somewhere the percentage of time a player will recovery vs. amount of time (not $) played. The findings were shocking!
I believe the MP eludes to the like in an article regarding a bad trip and his loss limit being around 50% of bankroll. If memory serves me correctly, his finding were to limit his loss limit significantly below 50% of BR.
Any case, I hope you have continues success at the table with this play.
Best regards,
scout
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #20 on 11/3/05 at 10:38 »
Scout,
Here we are in the beginning of November and I thought I would update you.
Last month, I played twenty-one days and won eighteen of those days. The three days I lost totalled $1,680. The eighteen days that I won netted $3,915.
I can also say that my wins are still almost always under an hour. I agree with what your source said, no matter what system you're using, anytime you're there longer than an hour, you're probably not going to win. There was one session in the middle of the month where I played three minutes. Of course the temptation is there to say, "well, maybe I can keeep going and win another two hundred."
I honestly think it's the ability to walk away after a goal is reached that keeps people ahead and not giving all of it or more back.
Good fortunes to you,
2fist
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #21 on 11/3/05 at 11:04 »
2fist,
I believe your right! I had that conversation yesterday at the tables. Most players agreed with the discipline. It's following it, however, that counts. The same players agreed that they don't follow their instinct, and leave, when their goal is reached.
Congrats on the successes!
Best regards,
scout
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #22 on 11/7/05 at 20:19 »
2fist,
I ran some more tests, but first a question: have you or Dave ever hedged the hard 6 or 8? In my runs on my table, about 30% of the time that they hit, after establishing, they hit hard. This seems to be an extrodinarily high percentage as they do not seem to hit that much for Just Win, but I was just curious. Anything over 10% is a net win on that hedge, plus keeps the bankroll running.
I ran 5 sessions on my table today and won 4 and lost 1.
+200 even
+265
+220
+320
-510
I also ran pages 25,45,65,85, and 105 in Zumma. Unfortunately, pages 25 and 105 were not good pages. Now, keep in mind that even though Dave doesn't chart (neither do I), I start at the top of these pages with the first shooter and work down.
Page 105 starts like this:
First shooter 7 7 7
Second 11 7 7 3 11
Third 11 7
Nine naturals in the first 13 CO's, ouch. Even though it's only $10 a pop, that set the tone for the page.
Page 85, in case anyone is interested, was unreal. I was down $415 twelve shooters in and went on a tear. Starting with shooter 1283 in Zumma, it is one of the best Don't sequences you could ever hope for, especially if you are a DP multiple DC player (like Just Win is). We are not just talking Point-Seven out. These guys rolled almost all the box numbers each time without repeating them and THEN sevened out. I'd be crying if I ever saw that live.
Shooter 1284 went 6 10 4 5 8 7
Shooter 1285 went 6 10 9 8 4 7
I've had those individually, but never back to back.
2fist let us know how you are doing, I may try this live sometime soon. 85% is better than 70%
biffle
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #23 on 11/7/05 at 21:30 »
Biffle,
Thanks for the input. The answer to your question about hedging the 6/8 with a hardway wager is "no". We never hedge any bets. When I first met Dave, he was really clear about not giving into those middle bets. Too much edge for the house.
I'm comfortable with my playing this system, because unlike Dave, I do chart the table before I start. I didn't always do that, but the past several weeks I have been. It's worked better for me.
Before, it seemed like many sessions started out with me being down $100-200 and then relying on the system to come all the way back and then some. I don't like sitting through those draw-downs. Now it seems like my sessions are getting shorter and shorter. Yesterday I played eight minutes and today was nineteen minutes.
Good fortunes,
2fist
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #24 on 12/5/05 at 9:43 »
Just wanted to post an update. Dave has stepped up his play in recent weeks. He's now laying the following amounts using a $25 flat bet:
6/8 = $240 lay
5/9 = $300 lay
4//10 = still no lay
His win goal is now $500. Although he's still winning, I want to add that two dealers told me a week ago he was down $9k at one point in his session. He battled all the way back and walked away a winner after playing fourteen hours! I'm still playing the system the way I have. I played eighteen sessions the month of November and won sixteen times. To this day, I have never won so consistently with a system.
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scout
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #25 on 12/5/05 at 15:18 »
Hi 2fist,
Congrats on your success! 16/18 is very impressive. I think I would have to stick with the play as well! I hope Dave continues his march to success too.
His change to a higher goal is interesting, especially with his loss reaching $9k momentarily. He certainly has discipline, playing 14 hours to recover!
Thanks for the update 2fist.
Best regards,
scout
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nicklemidnight
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #26 on 12/6/05 at 19:44 »
2fist:
Interesting that Dave has stepped up his play. With his lays going from $60 and $75 level to the $240 and $300 level, has he likewise increased his loss limit? Has his loss limit, too, increased four times, from $3,000 to $12,000? -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #27 on 12/6/05 at 21:27 »
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I stopped by to read a post or two because I still wish everyone good health and good luck. I still have not played and still have no intention to.
I wanted to add two things here. I still belive that Dave's system wins just as 2fist says it does, but I also had to post my own actual results (for my own justification?).
On a side note, I am dealing on the side for a local company called Jackpot Games out of Cleveland that does parties and casino nights. I deal BJ, Craps, and Hold Em, but I try to get Craps when I can. Although I am not running anything on my practice table anymore, I 'run' tests during the casino events. If I cannot make the bets myself, I actually give a player a bankroll and have him make the bets (teach them how to play Dave's way) without telling them it's Dave's system. Anyway, the results speak for themselves. The method wins over 90% of the time as usual....
Except when I played it live in a casino. I played it exactly as 2fist does and I won 6 and lost 8. Every time I played they would hit my numbers like a sniper shooting ducks in a pond. I posted about this before, so that's all I'll say about that.
I will say that I had the idea about progressing up as Dave did because eventually it does have the potential to make up the losses in a huge hurry, IF you are lucky enough....but a $9k risk for a $500 win? wow.
I guess that's why he is still playing and I am not.
biffle
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #28 on 12/7/05 at 8:05 »
Nickelmidnight,
Yes, Dave has equally pressed up his stop loss limit. For example, just yesterday I saw him at the casino and he had been playing three hours plus and was up $280. Dave has won alot of money this year playing this system.
He plays every single day. So although a $12k stop loss seems high, we have to take into account the fact that he's up six figures this year.
Biffle, believe me, the times when I do hit my stop loss limit for the session, I wish I had more to put down on the table to keep going. Part of me has seen this thing win so much and so consistently that I'm sure it would come back. However, I know that would throw all of the numbers off. I don't have Dave's bankroll and string winners all year to afford a $9k stop loss. Also, I don't think I could mentally handle seeing that kind of dough out there.
With what I've made this year using this system, I have decided to step it up to where Dave was when i met him:
6/8 = lay $60
5/9 = lay $75
stop loss $3k
I'm going to start this up the first of the new year. Of course, i'll keep updating progress or setbacks. Best wishes.
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nicklemidnight
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #29 on 12/7/05 at 18:50 »
2fist:
The "brilliance" about the way Dave plays is his win goal. And in going to a $12,000 loss limit with a $500 win goal, it's BETTER than when he had a $3,000 loss limit and a $200 win goal.
John Patrick explains it on Page 27-28 of his "basic" book on craps. It's the concept of being willing to accept a very low win goal in relation to what you're willing to risk. As Patrick puts it:
"Have you ever taken $100 to the casino and gotten ahead $10. Of course you have. Many times. OK, if it's so easy to win $10 with $100, then it should be just as easy to win $100 with $1,000, or $1,000 with $10,000. It's the exact same percentage. " . . . The problem is you don't want to accept a $10 profit (risking $100), because that's beneath you . . . "
So true, Mr. Patrick! Few of us are willing to settle for "just 10 percent." But let's analyse what Dave is doing. When he had a daily win goal of $200 and had a loss limit of $3,000, Dave was comfortable with winning just 6.66 percent of what he was willing to risk. Think about it, that $200 was equal to just 6.66 percent!
Now that Dave has gone to a $500 daily win goal and a loss limit of $12,000, he's cut it even further! A $500 win goal as a percentage of a $12,000 loss limit is being willing to settle for just 4.16 percent!!! Good grief, a piddlin' 4.16 percent! John Patrick continues (on Page 28):
"Go a step further. If it's so easy to win $10 with $100, then it ought to be a snap to win $5 with that same $100. That's a 5 percent return. Using that same percentage table, a minuscule 5 percent return, which is very easy to reach, increase your bankroll to $5,000. Play until you get that 5 percent goal. That is $250 profit per day. Suppose you went to the casino 200 times a year. That's $50,000 profit, taking just 5 percent returns."
I give a "tip of my hat" to Dave, and I know John Patrick would be very pleased with this application of his concept. That low percentage is the "brilliance" of what Dave is doing. And it's another confirmation of the wisdom of John Patrick and his books. -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
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kmikefree
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #30 on 12/7/05 at 20:23 »
AMEN
How true you are nicklemidnight. I have been gambling
only a couple years now, but in the early days, before I realized it was me against myself not me against them, everytime I would lose, I would always be up 20-50% or more and then the stupidity would kick in. Now I try not to gamble as much, and just play when the odds are in my favor.
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #31 on 12/7/05 at 21:49 »
Nickemidnight,
Yes, I totally agree with what you're saying and this truth came out immediately when Dave first gave me this system back in June of this year.
How many people go to the casino with $100 looking to make $500? Or they go with $200 looking to make $1000? Then again, like you point out, if we asked everyone at a craps table how many were there with $500 would walk away with a $50 profit? Not many. Dave has totally changed the way I think about gambling this year.
Look at Wall street. How many money managers would be happy with a 5% return every day they traded stocks? Are you kidding, there would be a mob of people and investment bankers trying to hire that savvy individual.
Think about it, with a properly bankrolled strategy, you could earn percentages like that just about every time you hit the casino.
I can attest that I've been using this system since June and have used a $500 stop with a $100 win goal and I'm up substantially. First year I can say that ever in my gambling forays.
Best wishes!
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nicklemidnight
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #32 on 12/8/05 at 6:45 »
2fist:
Your kind words are appreciated, but John Patrick is the person who deserves the praise. We owe so much to that man! What I would give to spend a day at the tables with John Patrick!
May I ask a further question or two regarding your observations of Dave and his system? When Dave has a $500 buy-in loss, does he take a break and leave the table, OR, does he buy in again right away for another $500?
Same question, different twist: When Dave has to buy in for another $500, does he stay at the same table (continuing play with or without a break), OR, does he go to a different table? -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #33 on 12/8/05 at 9:29 »
Nickelmidnight,
Please don't take my last post as an attempt to steal thunder from John Patrick. I have thoroughly enjoyed his books and his advance craps book is my favorite all time read on the game. I was simply trying to further drive the point home.
To answer your question, no, Dave doesn't walk away from the table when he loses an initial buy-in. In fact, he doesn't walk away with any subsequent losses and buy-ins. About the only think I've seen Dave do differently when buying in over and over is switch tables at some point. All of this is rooted in his thinking that the current streak will soon change and he doesn't want to miss it.
Also, Dave's stepped up play in recent weeks has him buying in initially for $2k. If he loses this first buy-in, he'll re-load for another $2k.
Good gaming.
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nicklemidnight
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #34 on 12/10/05 at 10:42 »
Oh, certainly I wasn't thinking you were trying to steal any thunder from John Patrick! Sorry if my words may have come across that way!! I was just expressing my respect for John Patrick.
Let me dig a little deeper about how Dave plays. You indicate Dave DOES switch tables at some point after, apparently, two or more buy-ins. Please get inside his head and ask him whether he has specific criteria to make the decision to switch tables. This is very important to me, as I have begun "testing" Dave's System in Las Vegas (at a reduced level of betting). -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
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caveman
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #35 on 12/11/05 at 22:19 »
I can't wait to try this system. I, too, have always had reservations about laying odds on the 6 and 8, but the results have convinced me to give it a go.
NM I can't agree w/you more on Patrick's quote. That is one of the major things I have taken away from John's books. The other key item I learned from John is that the player must have the discipline to stick with BOTH the win goal and the loss limit. Percentages, multiples and all that stuff goes right out the window if the discipline is not there. I know NM has it and it is obvious that both Dave and 2fist have it also. Keep it up guys.
Happy Birthday, biffle.
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hotshooter
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #36 on 12/26/05 at 16:48 »
I did a ran a Wincraps simulation of Dave's System.
The following are my results After 194 rolls and a starting bankroll of $500:
Bankroll:
High: $845
Current: $845
Low: $125
Average: $558
Bets Decided: 169
Bets Won: 95
Bets Lost: 74
Net Win: 21 12.43%
HS
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #37 on 1/3/06 at 10:07 »
Happy New Year to all,
In keeping with consistency, I did want to update my progress using Dave's system. This past December, I did not use the system as much as I have been. I played Dave's system for eight sessions and won seven of them.
Winning session profits: $1585
Losing session loss: <$448>
Net Profit: $1137
However, as I've stated on Irishsetter's board, I'm making it my goal to rely strictly on my own shooting and cease betting the table. I did make alot of money using Dave's methods this past year, but I know I would have made alot more betting on just me. Many of you have told me that you've ran a number of tests and you can see that the system makes money overall.
This is true... it does make money. One of the trade-offs is you may find yourself in a negative equity session for hours sometimes. Also, the fluctuations in your bankroll are quite volatile. I feel that my own shooting will yield positive results with alot less negative volatility.
Best wishes for 2006,
2Fist
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caveman
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #38 on 1/4/06 at 8:26 » [Quote]
Regarding "Dave's System" I took a bit of cash to the casino this past week for a trial run. I found that the pucker factor of placing DP bets with odds on every roll was a bit too much for me, plus it strained my meager bankroll. I felt like I was giving the shooter too many targets to hit. So, I went with the DP with either $30 odds on the 6/8 or $45 odds on the 5/9. I then went with two DC wagers with odds if the number was a 5,6,8 or 9, no odds on the 4 and 10. This gave me three don't side bets. If I lost two wagers to any single shooter - DP or DC, no more bets on this shooter. (this saved me from the guillotine on a CFr's 3-pass hand)
I limited myself to the two DC bets both for personal pucker factor reasons and that most shooters will seven out within 3-5 rolls. The system was working well. The one aspect I do like about the don't side is that ALL don't bets are paid upon the roll of one number - the seven. On the do side each number must be rolled to make it pay, so multiple rolls are necessary to have all pets pay.
I did modify the plan a bit in that when it came my turn to shoot, I placed a DP bet and after the point was established, placed the 6 and 8. I then set the 3V and tried to roll as many sixes and eights as possible. I think a steep regression here would also be a good thing. Then if I made my point all I would lose is the $10 DP bet which is offset by the winnings from the 6 & 8. Should the seven appear, I lose the 6 & 8 bets (which should be paid for by now) and win the DP wager.
The session went well. The table was so cold at the start, I reached my win goal on the frst two shooters. However, this being a test run I decided to hang around at least until I could shoot and see how it went. Unfortunately, three of the next four shooters had winning hands so my bankroll was dwindling. The last shooter made three pass line winners. Fortunately the next three went 7-out without much fanfare. When I got the dice it was $10 DP with $18 6 and 8 on a point of 9. Hit the 8 then a regression to $12 6 & 8. All-in-all a 15 roll hand with three paying numbers before the 7.
Color coming in.
Session stats:
Charted for a cold table
Buy-in = $200 (yea that's low but it's all I had that day)
Loss Limit = $100
Win Goal = $50
Session low= -$95
Color in $265
Time at the table 45 minutes
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #39 on 1/10/06 at 21:28 » [Quote]
Good job Caveman. Adjustments are a funny thing, they'll look great one session and terrible the next, but thats craps. Keep up the good work and the wins.
2fist - you mentioned on 12-7 that you were stepping up your play to match Dave's original method, meaning a re-buy after a $500 loss and so on. In you last post, though, it looks as though your one loss matched your regular $500 loss limit and then you stopped (as you had been doing most of the year). Are you back to the $500 buy in with that as the stop loss, or are you going up the Dave's original $3k loss limit at all?
Also, you mentioned that you only bet on yourself, but I did not see anywhere whether you said that you set for the 7 at any particular time. I do when I get one or two bets established, but I was curious if you did.
biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #40 on 1/10/06 at 22:10 » [Quote]
Biffle,
When I posted that message on December 7th, those were my intentions. However, I went out to Vegas the second week of December and decided on taking advantage of the $2 minimum and 100x's odds game at the (casino name deleted per ProBoards TOS). Shooting from the do's, it took me about a day to get dialed in, but I never looked back. It got me to thinking about all of the money I've waisted on other shooters and betting the table. I realized that even though I made money with Dave's system, I could have made more if I didn't bet the table at all and just relied on my own shooting.
Then, I read MP's total series on "regression avoids depression", and that was the icing on the cake... no more betting on the table and other shooters.
Thus, I did not step up my play level at all using Dave's system. As of the first of this year, I have not played Dave's system one time.
When I bet on myself now, I shoot from the do's. I have not bet anyone else. I must say this takes even more discipline than I needed when I was playing Dave's system. So far, I am doing well, making the same or more than I was playing Dave's system, but my bankroll does not go through the wringer of ups and downs it did before. In fact, I'm pretty close to even most of these sessions now. Good luck with it.
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biffle
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #41 on 1/12/06 at 22:53 » [Quote]
So...I'm not the only one that gives up on methods that win over 70% of the time (well over 90% in your case), lol.
I get the regression angle. I would probably do something similar if I didn't have to drive 4 hours each way to play. You never said how long your sessions are now, or what your profits/wins/losses are (not that you need to, I was just curious). It's just that you were winning 95% of the time, by my calculations, in mostly under an hour. I obviously was as frustrated as anyone by CF/RR's, and some of my trips (remember I was taking 2 days away from my family sometimes) would end with very little profit, dead even, or even a loss or two. If I won 95% of my TRIPS at my win goal, I'd be much happier than I am now.
I'm curious to know what your win percentage is going to be, and I wish you luck, but we won't know for a while. I hope that you update us here as Dave's method seemed to have done very well for you.
Good Luck.
biffle
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #42 on 1/17/06 at 10:46 » [Quote]
Biffle,
I believe this game is all about evolution. We evolve as players and hopefully utilize the things we've learned to help us to become even better at a game where few succeed in the long-run.
It's true, I was winning with Dave's system most of the time. However, I was getting tired of the ups and downs during the session with my bankroll. Now, my money is at risk less as it's only on the layout when I have the dice. I can go for larger gains now because the volatility in my bankroll is at a much lower level.
In other words, where I was putting $500 (my 50% stop loss based on $1000 buy in) at risk to make a $100, I can now use that same $500 to generate $200-300!
"How do you do that?"
Well, I think you would agree that it's easier to make more money when you're coming from being down say $60-100 as opposed to being down $300-400. Not only that, but there's also the psychological factor - you can shoot better when you're down less or up than you can when you're down deep.
As you know, Dave's system at times can get you close to that stop loss quick! I had to rely on my own shooting many times to pull me out of the hole. Why go through all of that? Since playing this way, I have yet to have a session where I'm anywhere near my 50% stop loss. Knock on wood, I hope it continues, if it doesn't I'll adjust.
Don't get me wrong... Dave's system is still the best system I have played as far as playing a table. If I HAVE to play the table, that's the only system I will use, but I don't HAVE to play the table.
As far as session length, it varies now because I have to wait to get the dice. I've been averaging anywhere from four to eight hands. This can take anywhere from an hour at the tables to as long as two hours plus depending on table conditions.
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theodoreandon
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #43 on 3/5/06 at 15:08 » [Quote]
Played "Dave's" system in Vegas last week. Bought in for $500.00 every time and followed it exactly. The only difference was that when I got up $200.00 I kept playing until 2 DP/DC bets were wacked then quit. In other words I rode the don't streak as long as possible. I left up $850.00 for the 2 days I was there.
Fantastic method - I will try it in St Louis next week also.
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Denver
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #44 on 3/28/06 at 16:46 » [Quote]
So once a point is establised the play is to lay against all 4 numbers,or just the point if its 5/9 6/8, then 2 DC's with odds?
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nicklemidnight
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #45 on 4/12/06 at 10:17 » [Quote]
I fully understand why 2Fist has drifted away from using Dave's System. But I was wondering: How have others been doing using Dave's System? -- NICKLEMIDNIGHT
« Last Edit: 4/12/06 at 10:17 by nicklemidnight » Report to Mod - Link to Post - Back to Top IP: Logged
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2fist
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #46 on 4/25/06 at 14:55 » [Quote]
NMidnight,
I actually did play Dave's system a week ago. I was with a buddy of mine, the $15 tables were full and I got bored. Now, this has happened many times since I stopped using Dave's system and started betting only on myself.
However, A fight had almost broke out between two dealers and two patrons. Then, there was a stick change, security was there, the whole deal. The table had been hot for an hour and it just went down like a sinking ship!
It got so bad, I would have been a fool not to capitalize on those conditions. So I played Dave's system, and boy was I glad I did! Like I said, $15 dollar table, so that was my flats, and I was playing $120 behind the 6/8, and $150 behind the 5/9. I had about $2k in chips on the rack when I started and I looked at my watch... 8:30pm.
By the time 9:05pm came around I was up $1200. Now normally I would have stopped several hundred dollars before that, but I decided to keep playing and see how far I could ride this ice cold table. My rule at that point was the first shooter to knock two of my bets down is my sign to color up.
10:22pm....
There had been a stick change and the energy started changing. One shooter hit two of my bets and after he had made his point, I colored out. By this time, I colored out for $4798. Thus it was a $2750 profit after tipping the crew the $48!
No, I'm not going back to playing this system like last summer. I will say that this goes to show again why Dave is enjoying retirement making $1400 per week playing craps!
Kindest regards.
« Last Edit: 4/25/06 at 14:59 by 2fist » Report to Mod - Link to Post - Back to Top IP: Logged
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alfalcons
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #47 on 4/26/06 at 6:12 » [Quote]
I am heading to AC in 2 weeks, does anyone have a WinCraps Auto bet file of Dave's system? I tried to create one this morning, but it is complicated to program. I think that it is a little too rich for my blood, but I will try it out on the computer.
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DeMango
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #48 on 4/28/06 at 12:15 » [Quote]
I have just run into this thread, looking for a system for a friend, a down on his luck don't player. My question is what if you lay on the 4/10 instead of the 6/8. So lay $45 on the 5/9 and $50 on the 4/10. Has anyone ran the Zumma, or win Craps or live play to see if there is a difference in results for Dave's System???
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Psalm 14:1a "The fool says in his heart, 'There is no God' "
Proverbs 12:1 "Whoever loves discipline loves knowledge, but he who hates correction is stupid."
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7guy
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Re: "Dave's" system
« Reply #49 on 5/24/06 at 11:11 » [Quote]
Hi,
What is Dave's system??
New to the forum, and craps. Reading ALOT, and favoring the DP and DC.
I do OK until a shooter hits a bunch of points.
7Guy
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