Charting Players and Tables for Trends

[heavy]

Charting is one of those subjects that always draws fire from those who approach the game from a mathematical point of view. My answer to that is simple. If charting means a player delays entry into disadvantage play - betting on every shooter that touches the dice - then it must be a good thing. After all, how many times have you seen a player rush up to a table, buy in for a thousand dollars or more, and immediately toss half his bankroll on the layout, only to lose it on the next toss of the dice? I guess I’ve seen this thousands of times through the years, but it still baffles me. These players don’t seem to care what they bet on or how well the game is going. They simply want to get in on the action. They demonstrate a clear lack of self-control and discipline - two elements you absolutely must have to survive at the game

I think most veteran players engage in some sort of table or shooter charting – either on a conscious or subconscious level. They understand that craps is a game of independent trials, and that what happened on the last roll has nothing to do with what happens on the next one. But they also understand that craps is a game of streaks and trends. In its simplest form charting is nothing more than watching the game for a while to see what the current trend is.

Watch long enough and you will see periods of quick seven outs followed by brief periods of points made. In between there will be long periods of choppiness where no trend is evident. But I believe charting is useful even on those occasions. A particular number may be repeating with higher than normal frequency, or the hardways may be showing up more than usual. If so, perhaps the trend will continue. Again, if nothing else, charting enforces discipline and slows entry into the game. That, in and of itself, can save the player money over the long run.

So how do you chart? First, it is a good idea to make up your mind what strategy you are going to play before entering the casino. Then, when you walk in the door you can find a table that is trending the way you want to bet. Let’s say you want to play the right way - perhaps with a Pass Line bet, free odds, and place bets on the six and eight.

Naturally, you would like to find a hot table, but there are varying degrees of "hot.” You may watch a shooter establish a point, then throw twenty-three numbers before sevening out. But if none of the numbers thrown were the six or eight you would have lost money on the roll. The numbers did not roll according to your pre-determined strategy of play.

Once you begin to chart the table take a look around at the other player’s action. Are there a lot of place bets on the layout? Which box numbers are seeing the most action? Which players have the most chips in their rack? How are they betting? All of these things are keys to the current trend.

If you plan to bet “right way” it is a good idea to chart until a player makes a pass. There is no point in playing the pass line if everyone is sevening out without making a point. Likewise, if you plan to place the six and eight it’s a good idea to chart until the shooter demonstrates that he can throw a six or an eight. Find at least two consecutive positive signs before entering the game. And then remember the old adage; “Don’t test the depth of the water with both feet.”

As the dice move around the table it is a good idea to chart the individual players as well. There are certain signs to look for when charting shooters. Does he set the dice and toss them with care or does he just "feed the chickens." If you believe that some players can influence the outcome of the dice with practice, look for those types of shooters.

Another good shooter sign is when the player makes hop bets on a frequent basis and hits the point he's hopping. This is a sure sign of a skilled shooter, and if he acts surprised when it occurs it is even better. He knows he is good and is just working on his act.

Did the shooter make a pass last time out? The first step to being a proven shooter is to make a pass. If he goes point - pass - so much the better. Even random rollers catch incredibly hot streaks. By charting shooters you can position yourself to take advantage of their streaks.

What if a shooter repeatedly goes point-seven? You have two options on these shooters. Either go with the trend and bet the Don’t Pass next time he shoots, or don’t bet at all. You want to chart for the bad shooters as well as the good ones.

Does the shooter have a particular number he repeats with higher than normal frequency? Often times the shooter is totally unaware of these tendencies. Yet definite signatures can develop whether they are aware of them or not. I once charted a shooter who threw an abnormal number of twelves over the period of about two hours. When the dice got back to him for his last roll of the evening I threw out a $5 world bet plus a $2 high low bet on his come out roll. Sure enough, he threw the twelve. In fact, he threw five twelves in a row, followed by an eleven and another twelve. As I have pressed my bets up on every hit, I won close to $1,500 before he ever established a point. I was the only player at the table who had any action on the twelve in this entire series. I just wished I'd parlayed the first hit instead of pressing it.

Charting the tables and the shooters is really about gaining control. Control of your emotions. Control of your bankroll. Control over when and why you play the game. Is it fun? Not particularly. But neither is losing.

[CrapsForever]

Table Trends in my last Craps session (8/12/2012 Weekend)

1) *Every single time a shooter threw a Horn number on their initial toss (after establishing the point), the shooter 7'ed out within the next 2 rolls. This occurred 6 times during a 4 hour Craps session.

*This is a phenomenon that I always pay close attention to because whenever I throw a horn on my initial toss after establishing the Point, I almost always 7-out within the next two rolls. I truly can not recall the last time I have made a point after throwing a horn on the initial roll after establishing the Point.

2) Played next to an Older Gentleman who had amazing premonition on "recognizing" the upcoming 7-out. On 6 out of the 8 times he pulled his bets down from the table, the 7-out came on the very next roll. In the other 2 instances where the 7-out did not occur on the very next roll after he pulled down his bets, the shooter eventually 7'ed out without making the Point.

After recognizing his "ability" to spot upcoming 7's, I also pulled down my bets. The next logical step in my progression is to start Laying the Point the next time I play with him if this trend continues.

3) Dealer sent the Dice to the shooter 10 different times with the 7's showing on the face/front of the Dice to the shooter. In 6 of those instances, the shooter did not re-set the Dice, shooter picked up the Dice the same way the Dealer sent it to them, the shooter 7'ed out all 6 times with the exact same "7" that was shown on the very next toss.

Example: Shooter got the Dice with 2's up top on both Dice with the 4 on the face of the Left Die and the 3 on the face of the Right Die. Shooter picks up the Dice and just flings it...the 4/3 was the roll.

I have been tracking this trend for years and it occurs way too often. Mental Note to Self: Don't bet on shooters who don't re-set the Dice!

Lots of arguments on the existence of "Trends" in Craps. I have been playing Craps for over a decade and I definitely believe in trends. I can't begin to tell you the amount of times that I have been shooting the Dice and called my Bets "OFF" and hopped the 7's for a nice-sized win based on "feeling a 7" coming up on the very next roll.

[Mad Professor]

1) *Every single time a shooter threw a Horn number on their initial toss (after establishing the point), the shooter 7'ed out within the next 2 rolls. This occurred 6 times during a 4 hour Craps session.

*This is a phenomenon that I always pay close attention to because whenever I throw a horn on my initial toss after establishing the Point, I almost always 7-out within the next two rolls. I truly can not recall the last time I have made a point after throwing a horn on the initial roll after establishing the Point.

If this phenomenon truly does manifest itself so compellingly; then why not, upon seeing a first-point-cycle-outcome-Horn, bet against the Point with as much betting-weight as you can.

In other words, if you believe it to be true with all your heart and soul; then why not bet it with just as much conviction. That way, if it IS in fact a correct belief on your part; then you will make all kinds of money. However, if it turns out to be a false notion, then that too will become quite clear quite quickly.

3) Dealer sent the Dice to the shooter 10 different times with the 7's showing on the face/front of the Dice to the shooter. In 6 of those instances, the shooter did not re-set the Dice, shooter picked up the Dice the same way the Dealer sent it to them, the shooter 7'ed out all 6 times with the exact same "7" that was shown on the very next toss.

Example: Shooter got the Dice with 2's up top on both Dice with the 4 on the face of the Left Die and the 3 on the face of the Right Die. Shooter picks up the Dice and just flings it...the 4/3 was the roll.

I have been tracking this trend for years and it occurs way too often. Mental Note to Self: Don't bet on shooters who don't re-set the Dice!

Similar to the above suggestion; the best way to prove out your beliefs in a compelling way, is to bet on them like you really DO believe in them with all of your heart and soul. You will quickly find out if your long-held beliefs are right or wrong.

I think the key is not to approach this half-heartedly. If you really, truly believe; then BET on it like you REALLY believe.

In this case, Laying the Point might be the way to go. If in fact, you see the dealer push out a 7-up with his mop; then quickly make as large of a Lay against the Point as you can comfortably afford (besides, a late-bet usually brings the 7-Out anyway, right?! ). Why mess around with one-roll Big Red hops; why not bet your beliefs with real CONVICTION!

Lots of arguments on the existence of "Trends" in Craps. I have been playing Craps for over a decade and I definitely believe in trends. I can't begin to tell you the amount of times that I have been shooting the Dice and called my Bets "OFF" and hopped the 7's for a nice-sized win based on "feeling a 7" coming up on the very next roll.

I don't think there's anyone in their right mind who will deny the existence of trends; but there are many compelling reasons...ones that use the "M-word" (math-based reasoning) that would indicate that trend-betting on random-rollers is folly when viewed through a big-picture, multi-session lense.

There's no doubt that trend-bettors can tell us about, "The thousands upon thousands of the times when such-and-such happened, or this-and-that occurred"; however, when you subtract away all the times they bet on what 'looked' like a certain trend or what 'felt' like an about-to-happen event that didn't pan out; then you are pretty much left with what they have in their pocket today.

A simple test of any trend-betting approach, is to measure how much "outside" (non-gaming) money you routinely have to ADD to your gaming-bankroll to bring it back up to 'full'. That usually answers the "How effective is my trend-betting?" question quite effectively.

Again, if you believe in these trend-things so fervently, so ardently, so passionately, and so zealously; then BET on them like you REALLY mean it...like you TRULY believe it! Don't mess around at the edges...pump-up the betting volumes...you'll SOON find out how right or how wrong your beliefs really are.


MP

[CrapsForever]

Great response, Mad Professor!

When I am shooting and "I feel the 7 coming", I almost always take down all my bets, hop the Reds for about a Nickle each ($15 Total) and make a profit. Based on my usual $500 Craps session bankroll, the most I feel comfortable betting on a one roll bet is $15. Though I am not as consistent shooting as I have been in the past, I usually don't lose Money on my rolls due to Hopping 7's. I have had lots of people chastise me for not hopping the Reds for Quarters each based on my success rate and it's an issue I am working on. Like you said "BET ON TRENDS LIKE YOU MEAN THEM"

I agree 100% that I have to bet a lot more based on the fact that I am almost always paid whenever I hop 7's/ Bet Big Red when I am shooting. In regards to other shooters that "I feel are about to 7-out" based on the way the Dice is set (7's showing), I usually make a decent sized come bet to take advantage of it. I used to hop 7's against shooters but it caused too many arguments on the table especially since I am a "right-side" player. People would call me out for having a Pass Line Bet and "rooting for them to 7-out" based on hopping reds. Although the profit is much less, I find it easier and more peaceful to make a quick large Come Bet along with an any Craps bet when possible.

Another issue is I have tried several times to quickly make a Big Lay bet but the Stick usually calls "No Bet" on my late action. Another option is to always play the Don't Pass Line (which I don't play) against a random roller and quickly lay big odds before they throw the Dice. This is my objective from now on.

Regarding the Old man in my post pulling down his bets right before the 7 appears in my last craps session (Post Above), I have played with him several times before and noticed he has an uncanny ability of usually taking down his bets at the right time however my last session was the first time I stood right next to him and documented everything on my phone.

I will definitely look to take advantage of his premonitions by laying against the Point heavy when he pulls his bets down in the future. A few of the times that he pulled his bets down in our last session, I was also in the process of pulling my bets down based on the 7's showing on the face of the Dice before a random roller picked up and flung the Dice but he also mentioned "knowing the 7 was coming" in one situation because there was too much money on the table....he was right based on the 7 which appeared on the next roll but I had never heard that expression before and chanced it by leaving my bets up due to the shooter (who is a not a random roller) being on the roll of the day. Big mistake on my part!

I know "Trends" is a highly debated issue. I know for a fact that I throw lots of Horns especially in clusters. (Every single tip I have ever received on the Craps table has been because I threw consecutive Horns especially 2's and 12's (Over $500 in Tips lifetime) and I always bet on them during my Comeout roll. I have made several people anywhere from $2,000 - $4,000 in a few parlayed Horns in several casinos over the years. The last time was last month in a Casino in the Midwest where I dug a man completely out of a $2,000 deficit in a few conseutive Horns rolls. He tossed me a $50 tip which was very well appreciated.

I am thinking of betting Horns a lot more often when I am shooting because I seem to always be the one making the least money on it when I am shooting (can't find the strength to do Full parlays). I am having difficulty coming up with an appropriate % of my bankroll to bet on. Some people tell me to bet Horns on every single one of my rolls which to me is way too extreme. Others say once you throw a Horn, Bet BIG...forget about the $5, $10 or $25 Horn, go bigger. Again, my nature is to not bet too much on one roll bets but I need to realize that I have to "BET BIG ON THE TREND"

MP, Thank you for the great advice. I have been reading your work for a LONG time and I feel very honored that you would take the time to respond to my post.

[wild child]

.
A "PERCEPTIVE SKILL" may be to approach a craps table with the ALL-TALL-SMALL Wager and observe

The BOX PERSON will place a laminar over each of the possible numbers as they are rolled.
Since the number is marked only once,you may not KNOW which ,if any,were REPEATERS when first approaching the craps table.
You WILL KNOW THAT AT LEAST those numbers were rolled ........

That information combined with observing the general demeanor of the folks populating a specific craps table and other general indicators.

Notice if the FIELD numbers are marked and the NON FIELD #'s not so much........
Should you observe such over several shooters,you may have a RUN or TREND before your eyes.

For the Dark Side prone player , observing that a specific # has not been covered or say only very few rolls are covered before a SEVEN OUT............................

Just me saying

W C

[SHOOTITALL]

CF: If this is accurate, it is made to order for doing the hopping sevens discussed a while back. That could pay big dividends without a large outlay in stocks.

[heavy]

I think I would prefer to lay against the point - whatever it is. That sevens hop bet is a one roll bet and you can go in a hole quickly if you start chasing it. Lay $100 against the four or ten, $75 against the five or nine, or $60 against the six or eight. I think I'll watch for seven pre-cursors in Tunica next weekend and Lay against a few just for grins.

[realtime]

H,

I am somewhat confused when you speak of "7 pre-cursors".

Would giving the dice to americraps be a major "7 pre-cursor" worthy of several lay bets?

Just wondering?

[Buy The Four]

The problem with bringing up tracking on this forum is that everyone thinks they positively influence the dice. Therefore, their approach to charting is unwarranted because either they are ON (shooting well) or OFF (shooting bad). Furthermore, there are a ton of different ways to chart tables or shooters like Heavy does. Craps Pro considers the table trend while Heavy considers the shooter's trend.

So the question becomes...which is more important to track; the shooter or the table as a whole? I prefer the table rather than the shooter but everyone is different.

[Roller123]

Buy The Four,

You can track both the shooters and the table. The table is easy hot, cold, choppy, making or not making the point, and # of rolls before 7 out. The shooters are easy if you are familiar with them. Observe one of their hands and see if it is consistent with what you have seen from them in the past. If you have never seen the shooter before I wouldn't bet on them unless you have watched one hand and see them set the dice, place the dice in the same spot before picking them up, concentrate, you know the rest. If they are setting and have a good hand but don't look "polished" I would not bet on them. $5Bill and I used to play together frequently and we knew when to bet on each other and when the other was having a bad day. If you play with some regulars you can see when you should and shouldn't bet on them. Sometimes a crappy table will still have one or two good shooters so try playing both the shooter and the table.

Roller

[$5Bill]

Hey Roller, When are we going to together again. I haven't seen you in a while.

$5Bill

[Roller123]

$5Bill,

I'm slowly getting back into the groove. I was at The GV last week and heard one of the dealers say that they are removing the third table. It will probably be another 6 weeks before I am confident in my shooting again.

Roller

[heavy]

A little Sunday Morning BUMP of a post from five years ago that some of you will appreciate.

[Bankerdude80]

I'm conflicted. I chart occasionally, but not all the time. One part of my brain tells me that mathematically it doesn't matter because craps is a game of independent trials, the other part of my brain recognizes that trends occur and I should have "charting" in my toolkit. Similar to what Heavy opined at the top of this thread. I find charting can sometimes be tedious, other times it allows me to keep busy while I wait for the dice to come back to me. Part of my dislike is that I usually shoot Lone Wolf, and therefore don't track my own rolls. Hence my charting is incomplete, it may lack data that could be used to spot a trend.

By charting, it is usually helpful to identify the "good shooters", but a shooter may have one decent hand, then a not so decent hand. So how do you really know? Charting contains two components: the physical writing down of events/data and the ability to analyze, in a practical way, the data collected. Writing things down is easy and it is work. Analyzing the data is a skill developed over time. Watching a mentor chart their games is an easy way to pick up on which data points are important. Or, taking a seminar class that delves into this topic with a little more detail than a basic cursory overview.

When I chart I am evaluating the shooters, the numbers tossed, and the overall table results. Using that data is still a work in progress for me.

[Operator]

I use the people who are at the table already .I rember the regular good shooters and ask hows the table doing did the guy at the end of the table have a good roll.Normally I get this answer it was fair probably 15 rolls I roll my eyes and say ok that's fair.Heh heh any body else done any thing if the answer is no I start charting while I wait for my turn to shoot if the shooter tosses 2 six or 8,s I'm on the next shooter if a point out I wait until I see the 6&8 hit twice then I'm in.

[six shooter]

There is no doubt the numbers are the numbers. After a million rolls the numbers will be close to proving out 16.7% 7's, 13.9% 6 & 8's each 11.11% 5 & 9's and so on including hardways and horns. However, it's how they get there is what charting takes advantage of. There is expansion and contraction of any number or sets of numbers to take advantage of. Charting will easily identify patterns in randomness, number entanglements and indicators telling you what side to bet on (Do or Don'ts) or even hardways and horns. I believe you also need to play both sides of the game to be a consistent winner.

[Seattlerick]

Charting at your home casino and charting in Vegas or any other multi casino destination is much different. If you cannot walk to another casino in 15 minutes or less, then you must use your local knowledge of the rollers that frequent your casino.there are so few dice influencers that your chances of having more than one , or even one, at your casino are basically zero. There are usually a few rythym rollers running around, but not many. 99% percent of rollers at your local casino will be randies,therefore charting is VERY necessary. A mathamatical ,patient approach,will give you a leg up on having more winning sessions than losing sessions. Yea, it will not maximize your winnings, but it will allow you to have winnings, in contrast to 98% of all players,over a longer time span. Mad professor has stated several times in his writings, that 85-90% of all rolls will be between 1 and 15 rolls. So if you take those numbers at face value, maximizing your returns on any given roll should not be the main goal, after all fomo is the biggest reason that people lose in this game.anytime you can get an occurance,with a 70-90%, appearance rate, in a random game, you should take serious consideration of that occurance. Mathamatical brake points do that and are there for those who chart.you cannot win, over time, playing every roll of every roller......period. It is dubious that you can win,over an extended period of time, even playing every roll of every turn, of your own roll. Charting of some form is necessary for every player,save an extremely small percentage,and it would probobly help even those few that are in that small percentage..

[London Shooter]

Of course the counter to this is simply if 99% of the shooters are randies, why are you wasting time charting?

[Seattlerick]

London shooter, contrary to what is talked about on this and other boards, plain and simple.....it works. There are many ways to skin the same cat, charting is just one of them. Some of us have many years of expierence with results to back up each of our ways of playing, that does not make them hogwash. Just like dice influencing, most people and most in the casino business do not believe that this game can be beaten, so they continue to look down on claims that it can. With VERY few people able to win any money at all over a longer playing span of more than 9 or ten sessions, this becomes a pervasive mind set. Good for those of us who can, though. Entertainment is ok, but winning money at the end of the day/year is the goal for some of us, not many ( including quite a few on this board ), but to each his own. A question for you since you have a regular casino in England. Are there any dice influencers at YOUR home casino ???? We have been actively looking for some where we play without any luck so far.one other question....why do most of the dice influencers look down on other ways to beat this game ??? It seams to me an open mind would be a much better way to learn to beat this game we love.....Happy new year...Seattle Rick

[London Shooter]

SR, no I don't see DIs in London. I increasingly see some people setting and throwing with rhythm, but nobody I would consider a genuine DI, just some regulars I may be more likely to bet on than others.

If charting gives people entry and exit points to the game, then I see anything wrong with that, especially when it comes to getting money off the table - that's always going to be a good move long term.

Overall, why would charting a dice table be any different to charting a roulette wheel or looking at banker/player patterns in baccarat? I don't see any edge.