Dark side strategies

[stonejr1211]

First make don't pass for $40,lay the 4 and 10 for $40. As a hedge put $5 on the hard 4 and $5 on the hard 10 and $2 on the yo.If point is rolled remove the lay bet and place maximum odds on the don't pass. If the 4 or 10 is the point, I lose one lay bet take down the other.If he hard 4 or 10 you win $35

I'll win on the 2 or 3 and a 12 is a push. If the yo comes I'll lose $40 and only win $30 on the yo.
If a 7 is roll it is basically a wash.

Give me your thoughts on this play?

[London Shooter]

Well welcome aboard. That's one hell of a start to come out with a dark side post right off the bat.

If you simulated this with and without hedges over a good number of rolls, I'm pretty sure you'd soon give up on the idea of hedging. Of course in live play we all go there from time to time.

[tonybugs]

I like it up to the " max odds" part. Here's why:
You go through a lot of trouble not to lose $40 on the come out, but than will risk $120-$200 on next roll! If you got that kind of bankroll, forget the yo, the hardways, and lay bet and fly naked! Lol

Tonybugs

[Dark Side]

Do you play strictly flat bets or do you lay odds?

[SHOOTITALL]

Stone: Welcome aboard. You will find several dark side players here plus some part time dark side players. Keep up telling us about your playing and other strats and such. Heavy will welcome you when he returns to the human race but right now, he is, shall we say, indisposed. Day yob. Meanwhile, there is just a ton on darkside playing here and on MP's board. Use the archives in both places. MP will let you know how to join his board which has equal value to this one. He also has hundreds of pages of archive material. sia

[Dark Side]

Do you play strictly flat bets or do you lay odds?

Please forget this question, I thought I deleted it after I read you play odds.

Hate it when that happens ...

[heavy]

Welcome to the world of those who post.

Okay, here's my thought on the play. I've seen one very similar to this before. The thought on laying both the four and the ten for $40 each is to give you a $40 pay off (less the vig) to cover the $40 DP bet - without exposing a single number to a larger ($80) loss. In other words - you could lay $80 against the four OR ten but you'd risk losing the entire $80 if that number rolled. Especially if it rolled EASY. So splitting it reduces your exposure to rolling the number you've laid - but it also doubles the chances that you'll roll one of those numbers. To me, it's a logical play. So is adding the hardway hedge. It cuts the number of ways you can lose on the lay bets from six to four. 3-1, 1-3, 6-4, 4-6. The real problem with this play is not in the short run - but in the long run. In the long run (and I hate to use the word "mathematically") this play will cost you money. Why? Because regardless of how you apportion your bets - each one is a negative expectation wager. Each has a "cost" associated with it over the long run. And those costs add up. ANY time I find myself hedging a bet - the $40 DP bet in this situation - hedged by the two lay bets - THEN find myself hedging my hedge bets - by making the two $5 Hardway bets - I figure I'm pissing away too much juice. Over the long run - hedges cut into profits. If you have the bankroll to sustain your play without the hedges you'll be better off saving that cash.

Now, if your objective is to get $40 in Don't action there's a simple way to do it. Make a $25 Don't Pass bet. Once it's established make a $15 Don't Come bet. At that point you'll have $40 in Don't action. If you want to lay odds on a number - pick the number you believe will be the most difficult for the shooter to repeat. For example, if the $25 DP bet travels to the SIX and the $15 DC bet travels to the FOUR - Lay the FOUR.

In the casinos where I play most frequently - you have anywhere from 20X to 100X odds. I don't know how your bankroll stands, but if you have a $25 DP bet on the Four in a 100X odds game you're talking about laying $5000. I would never lay that much if it were me. I'd Lay around 25% of that amount - say $1200. That way if the bet got knocked off I could make an additional odds bet on the remaining DC wager. If the DC were on the SIX I could lay $1800 there in an attempt to recoup what I lost on the DP wager.

Of course, I'm cheap when it comes to playing the Don'ts. Often I'll play without laying odds, starting with a $15 DP and followed by a continuous stream of $10 DC bets. However, my most frequent play is to lay double odds on the numbers.

[stonejr1211]

I've been running this on wizard of odd and leaving off the hard way hedge and laying $240 odds. It does good playing that way but in real live play it maybe a different story. I would not try this play on a DI unless he was betting on the dark side.

Thanks, for the reply. I'm going to try your action and see how it plays out.

[DarthNater]

I saw a similar play over the weekend in Vegas.

A fellow was laying $50 each on the 4 and 10; while setting a DP of $100 with a $5 yo hedge. It was a trending cold table. Once a point was set he'd lay $300 on the don't and do two $50 DCs and when they traveled would lay $300 each. He'd turn off the No 10 and No 4. For the most part he was very successful. Two of us were setting and he didn't flinch. While we banged his No 5 each; he still went up on us the second time around. Both times I started my roll with a craps, so he wasn't hurting.

I happened to wargame it last night, so this post caught my eye, as I liked the play. He also bet the hardways when his DC was on even numbers.

Driving away afterwards I saw a Freeway status marquee sign advising that "Texting while driving leads to the Dark Side", it didn't mention hedging.....

D.N8r

[stonejr1211]

DartNater, glad you saw someone using something similar to what I was using. I would not use it when a DI was shooting and would want a cold table.If a shooter hit his point I would not bet on that shooter anymore.

[DarthNater]

Actually this guy and I seemed to mutually co-exist as my come-out sevens won his DC's with the max odds; plus as I was using the v-3 mutant set; I threw a couple of ace-dueces as well on the come-out.

But I would never darkside anyone with a semblance of influence or rhythm. Yesterday I switched to the v-2 mutant to cut down on some of that garbage. The first time around a warm table it worked well, there was one guy in the inside hook darksiding and he switched. The dice came back to my side and a lady had already made two points to the fire when a guy squeezed in next to me and bet dark. He got knocked off 4 times by her until his $300 DP won when she sevened out. Even though I was right-siding he adopted me as his new best friend telling me how he'd been hammered down the street on the dark. I told him the table seemed warm and to watch out. the next person who was a rhythmic roller on the end also pushed him to $300 to win a DP. He passed the dice to me for my second run at it. I thought I had a good LZ and and after I knocked off his $600 DP making the point four for a second time, he quit. Of course on my next comeout I threw aces; the whole table laughed with him. And he started over with another DP.....unbelievable. I think on another thread Heavy was talking about limiting losses and he obviously wasn't interested in that. A yo knocked that off at $300 and he finally stopped....

D.N8r

[London Shooter]

A few writers have said never get off more than once by the same shooter. DYlanFreake plays this for real and it seems to make a lot of sense.

[stonejr1211]

I know if I get knocked off I don't bet that shooter.

[heavy]

One loss per shooter is one of the fundamental tenants of dark side play. Of course, being an action kind of guy I'll take it up to two, but that's generally my limit.

[DarthNater]

Twice is my limit too; but it amazing how people try and martingale the don't. Especially when the next shooter is likely a PSO, D.N8r

[heavy]

The problem with the martingale is that the occasional hot streak where a player makes 10 - 12 passes will put you at table limit. A guy who can toss naturals on the come out can get to a dozen passes before you know it. That's why I prefer the fibonacci. It's a slower progression. Sure, it required two consecutive wins to put you in a profit position, but I don't have a problem with that, since all hot streaks seem to be followed by a long period of very short hands.

[Dark Side]

A few writers have said never get off more than once by the same shooter. DYlanFreake plays this for real and it seems to make a lot of sense.

As the old saying goes, "once shame on you, twice shame on me." If a shooter nails me on a DP C/O and I go back up, most likely i'll get nailed on the point.

The don't is a game of patience.

[stonejr1211]

Why don't more player play the don't?

[London Shooter]

Lack of knowledge about the bets on the other side of the game, not wanting to be "that guy" who is playing against everybody else (even when both sides are playing the game against the house, not each other), the need for action junkie type bets in the middle and high-fiving social experience which you just don't get from the don'ts.

[stonejr1211]

I'm in it for the money not the high fives.I like to have friends at the table but I'll play my way other play there way.