Heavy's Axis Power Craps Forum

If you had shown that you had a advantage throwing craps numbers, would it be better to play at a crapless table? I know that crapless has a higher house edge and most serious DI's avoid the game. However according to bone tracker I am throwing a lot more 2's and 3's than normal. It's killing me on the come out roll. I've consider placing a field bet on a regular table but I know the house edge is high on it as well. Also I'm throwing lots of fives and sixes.


Any thoughts would be appreciated.

At Caesars Windsor Casino the best table of he five that are in the pit is the Crapless. That can be a problem. On the other hand if its a casino that you visit 8 - 10 times a year it can be profitable.

I tend to toss a lot of craps numbers. I use the hard way , 6-1 axis, set so 1 die off can produce lots of 3's and 11's. When I do toss them they tend to come in bunches. For Me if I set a craps number as a point the chance of Me hitting it is most likely better than most.

Now, the real issue with Crapless is I'd how to 'bet" the table. Most Crapless are $5 tables. Why, because the House knows it will bleed your bankroll, and it can and it does.

If you place bet for example $44 inside as your standard bet, You have a tend any to think, maybe I can place the 3 and 11 for $5 each. It's only $5. They the shooter tosses a 2. Damn, should have placed also 2 and 12, since the payout is so good. Now the shooter tosses 11. Hmm take $10 and place 2 and 12. Great, wait the numbers are all covered except 4 and 10, unless ones the point. If odds are on that 4 or 10, do I 2 or 3X' s odds.

Now all of a sudden you have $75-80 on the table. If you only bet yourself or other DI's that may be ok, but, yes the big butt. If average place bet is $5 and payoff is $7 - $9. Its going to take 10-12 roll hand to get you bets paid. That's a Lots of exposure.

Can the Crapless be profitable. Yes, if you know the table and In Live sessions you know your tendencies. They can be a ton of fun. Do you try playing one. Of course. Like in Windsor it might be the sweetest of the bunch. Like all tables sneak in and give them a whirl.

Lkwd

The crapless game is not a bad place to use Dice Doctor's old "converted come bet" play, which is essentially placing each number after it rolls. So if you have a point established and take odds, then toss a six - you place the six. If you toss the three - place the three. If you toss the nine - place the nine. I'd probably limit myself to three such bets plus the Pass Line and odds. If you wanted an option off this - play that $44 inside. Whenever you end up placing an outside or extreme outside number because it rolled - take down the nearest inside number. So if the eleven rolled you'd take down the nine and use that money to place the eleven. But if an inside number rolls you'll simply "same bet" it. Just thinking out loud here - but it seems like a logical play to me.

I use crap less tables when I can open them up or they are sparsely populated. Had my 2 best rolls of my last trip on crap less tables, mostly because they were empty and I got to get grooved in a bit. The other thing was I was mostly playing the darkside and it was nice to be forced to play rightside, and go on a roll If you are worried about the house edge, You are paying something like 2% extra on single odds bets on the pass line. I want to place the inside numbers (starting with the 6/8 usually) which have the same house edge. So all I am out vs a regular table is .02*5 = Expected $.10 a hand vs a regular table, quite the cheap premium to pay, especially if it is empty. Another thing to consider, is that if you have good discipline and others at the table don't then they will bleed and the table has a higher probability of being more sparsely populated.

The crapless tables at GoldStrike and Horseshoe in Tunica are normally $10 minimums. Roadhouse is always $5. Roadhouse is normally empty while GS and HS are normally pretty crowded. I'm hoping to make a trip to Tunica later this month. I'm going to check out a few other places then as well. My longest roll ever was on the crapless table a roadhouse.

Craps75 wrote:The crapless tables at GoldStrike and Horseshoe in Tunica are normally $10 minimums. Roadhouse is always $5. Roadhouse is normally empty while GS and HS are normally pretty crowded. I'm hoping to make a trip to Tunica later this month. I'm going to check out a few other places then as well. My longest roll ever was on the crapless table a roadhouse.

Speaking of Tunica you might consider viewtopic.php?f=14&t=1573

In general, crapless craps edge per roll is three times higher than craps. The edge per bet is 4 times higher, but the pass line lasts more rolls in crapless than in craps. This is the first and foremost thing you need to understand because a controlled shooters edge is measured per roll not per bet.

The next thing to realize is that if you want a good deal while playing crapless craps, you have to do one of two things:

1) Bet more odds .. since the edge on the line is 3x higher, consider $5 crapless equal to $15 craps and bet 3x as much odds on a $5 crapless table to get to your break-even point on the overall edge
2) If you can buy the 2, 3, 11, or 12 .. and you can target a specific number, the combination of higher pay and lower edge is a hole that you can exploit

Here in Vegas, buying the 2, 3, 11, and 12 on crapless with commission on the win is the best-non-zero-edge bet in all of dice. You can find those bets on the weekends at Las Vegas Club and at the Plaza. Buy them for $25 or more, and it's an amazing deal. Very few people do this, but it's there for now. If these holes get exploited, I'm sure they will cover them up eventually. But they are definitely holes here in Vegas downtown.

I hope this helps!

The edge per bet is 4 times higher, but the pass line lasts more rolls in crapless than in craps.

Are you sure about the bolded part of that statement? I agree that the house edge is significantly higher on the pass line, but I think the average shooter's hand is still going to be around 8.3 rolls. There are more place bet decisions per hand since all of the numbers can be placed or become the point, but I don't think there are any more sevens on the dice. Can you explain how you came up with this statement?

He is right because there are 6 less ways for a 1 roll pass-line decision (no come-out horn numbers will win or lose a pass line bet in crapless,) which will increase the average pass-line decision length, but not hand length.

[if my math is correct...feel free to check/correct]

Taking the calculation from this page http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/ ... obability/ and updating it for crapless -

This is the calculation for the expected number of rolls per game for when a point has been established (no come-out pass-line decisions - craps/naturals)

So the expected number of throws per round is 1+(2/3)*((3/12)*4 + (4/12)*3.6 + (5/12)*(36/11)) = 3.375758.

Crapless: 1 + (30/36) * ((2/30) * (36/7) + (4/30) * (36/8) + (3/12)*4 + (4/12)*3.6 + (5/12)*(36/11)) = 4.755411255

Now let's factor in come-out decisions:

Craps: (12/36) * 1 + (24/36) * 3.375758 = 2.583838667
Crapless: (6/36) * 1 + (30/36) * 4.755411255 = 4.129509379

So in craps, a pass-line decision will be made every 2.58 rolls, where as in crapless it will take 4.13 rolls.

Going to the next step, a HAND will average -

Next, the probability that the player will seven out is (2/3)*((3/12)*(2/3) + (4/12)*(3/5) + (5/12)*(6/11)) = 0.39596.

The probability that player will not seven out is 1 - 0.39596 = 0.60404

x = 3.375758 + 0.60404*x
0.39596*x = 3.375758
x = 8.52551

Crapless: (30/36) * ((2/30) * (6/7) + (4/30) * (6/8) + (3/12)*(6/9) + (4/12)*(6/10) + (5/12)*(6/11)) = 0.625901876.

The probability that player will not seven out is 1 - 0.625901876 = 0.374098124

x = 4.755411255 + 0.374098124*x
0.625901876*x = 4.755411255
x = 7.597694523

The average rolls per hand in craps is 8.53 whereas it is only 7.60 in crapless.

Interesting that this came up as al_falcons and I yesterday were discussing the average crapless hand length, so I felt extra inclined to make the calculation.

Thanks for doing the math Wudged. That supports what I have seen at the crapless tables, the hands seem to be shorter to me. My reasoning was that you shorten the come out cycle down to either 7 or any other number, so you don't see too many come out cycles that last past 3 rolls, maybe 2 seven's in a row, followed by the point being set. Then when you factor in the point cycle possibly being shorter when the 2,3,11 or 12 is the point because these are less likely to be hit then the standard box numbers.

Yep. Appreciate you doing the scut work, Wudged. Just shows an old dog can learn new tricks. I knew there was a higher house edge on the pass line due to the fact that you lose that natural win on the eleven and you end up with more difficult points to score a Pass on, but I'd never really considered the fact that the average hand would actually be shorter. I guess what we need to do is twist Maddog's arm and see if we can get a Crapsless Craps version of BT mod. Or maybe one of you other guys feel up to the task? It is open source . . .

The average hand being shorter follows from the higher edge on the pass line - you are going to make less passes per hand overall, so less rolls per hand as well.

I get average number of rolls 4.16147 in crapless for the pass line bet and 3.3758 in craps.

Edge per bet in crapless is 5.382% versus 1.41% in craps.

5.382 / 4.16147 = 1.2932% edge per roll
1.41 / 3.3758 = 0.417678% edge per roll

1.2932 / 0.417678 = 3.09x higher edge per roll to overcome for a controlled shooter.

As far as how long you get to shoot, I haven't done that math. But 3.09x is close enough to three to just remember THREE.

When I did all the math for crapless, it hadn't already been done anywhere by anyone. Crapless is written off by math folks as a gimmick. For those who don't believe in controlled shooting, the only thing to think about is the possibility to get a higher pay with a lower edge on the buy bets.

In any case, the short answer is that it costs three times as much. For most folks, you can overcome this cost by not tipping which pays for the extra cost of $0.04 per roll pretty easily if you normally tip $1 per 15 minutes, it's a break-even way to forget about the costs. Then just make sure you max out those odds and buy the outer limits and demonstrate how you can hit a target!

wudged wrote:The average hand being shorter follows from the higher edge on the pass line - you are going to make less passes per hand overall, so less rolls per hand as well.

The edge per roll is all that matters. No matter how long the average hand lasts, the edge on the pass line is per bet, not per hand.

The bet lasts longer in crapless.

Here's a spreadsheet that will let you look at ways to (theoretically) exploit unfair dice in crapless craps that also calculates edge per roll:

http://www.goodshooter.com/ahigh/excel/ ... edges.xlsx

Anecdotally, I was recently trespassed at a casino as a result of my looking into the possibility of them using bad dice. I still have no conclusive evidence that bad dice are responsible for casinos holding more money as Harley suggests, but that issue, it seems, will never die.

Rolls per "hand" from WOV is:

x = 3.375758 + 0.60404*x
0.39596*x = 3.375758
x = 8.52551

For crapless,

In crapless probability of seven-out is
(30/36)*((1/15)*(6/7)+(2/15)*(6/8)+(3/15)*(6/9)+(4/15)*(6/10)+(5/15)*(6/11)) =
(5/6)*((1/15)*(6/7)+(2/15)*(3/4)+(3/15)*(2/3)+(4/15)*(3/5)+(5/15)*(6/11)) = 0.526911977

x = 4.16147 + 0.526911977 x
x - 0.526911977x = 4.16147
x * ( 1 - 0.526911977 ) = 4.16147
x = 4.16147 / 0.473088023
x = 8.7963968

So even your hands last longer. You gotta correct the 12 to 15, and you'll get the same answer.

You're right, thanks. For some reason I was reading the 3.37 as the number of rolls for a round that is not decided on the come-out, instead of the total number of rolls per round. Not sure how I missed dividing by 15 instead of 12 either since I obviously picked it up on the 2/12 and 3/11 calculation!

Anecdotally, I was recently trespassed at a casino as a result of my looking into the possibility of them using bad dice. I still have no conclusive evidence that bad dice are responsible for casinos holding more money as Harley suggests, but that issue, it seems, will never die.

Could you explain how you know your barring from the casino was a result of your investigation specifically? Which casino was this?

It's interesting that Harley seems to think so many casinos are using biased dice deliberately to skew the hold in their favor, when a look at the historical data on table game hold suggests the opposite:

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_table_hold.pdf

According to the report and attendant graphs, "it becomes clear that Nevada table games have trended toward lower hold over the last twenty years."

Heavy wrote:

Anecdotally, I was recently trespassed at a casino as a result of my looking into the possibility of them using bad dice. I still have no conclusive evidence that bad dice are responsible for casinos holding more money as Harley suggests, but that issue, it seems, will never die.

Could you explain how you know your barring from the casino was a result of your investigation specifically? Which casino was this?

It's interesting that Harley seems to think so many casinos are using biased dice deliberately to skew the hold in their favor, when a look at the historical data on table game hold suggests the opposite:

http://gaming.unlv.edu/reports/nv_table_hold.pdf

According to the report and attendant graphs, "it becomes clear that Nevada table games have trended toward lower hold over the last twenty years."

There's more info about my trespass warning on my website. I don't want to repeat all the details, but as they told me, it all started when I used a mechanical device to count faces. I got verbal permission before I brought it in, but that was what started the whole process of being asked to leave according to what Ira told me.

As far as hold percentages state-wide not being affected, if in fact bad dice are being used to increase holds, which for the record, I do not believe that they are, it is more plausible that casinos that already have higher hold percentages are the casinos that are doing this. By definition, those tables do not make enough money to make a difference in state-wide hold percentages (IE: they are the sweat shops). Again, this is just a more plausible explanation, and certainly not a belief of any kind. I think the whole thing is a game (testing for biased dice) and unlike Harley, I do not subscribe to the belief, but I enjoy looking into it with the hope to dispel the notion. The casinos trespassing me are not helping me to dispel, however.

The casinos that have higher hold percentages on craps fall into two categories.

#1: Casinos that only pay double on the 12 in the field (Harrah's-owned casinos, Stratosphere, Cosmopolitan, LVH, Hooters)
#2: Casinos that offer $3 minimum bets and cater to players who bet more hop bets

These are known to generate higher hold percentages. The $3 minimum is the less obvious why the hold percentages are higher, but the short answer is that $3 place bets that round down more pennies create higher edges for all place bets.

Places like Fiesta Rancho, and Jerry's Nugget cater to an african american culture of craps player that likes to bet hop bets more frequently. The $3 minimums allow these hop betters to focus less on the pass line and more on their hop bets. Cheap dice on these tables could conceivably save money since the revenue on the table is not that significant to begin with. The average craps table earns $2,000 per day. These craps tables might earn $500 per day on average. A player who takes advantage of inexpensive dice could be a threat if in fact they are using cheap chinese dice to cut their dice cost from $50 per day to $5 per day.

Again, this is just a plausible explanation. And to re-iterate, I think you make a good point that holds are going down. People are getting smarter and learning how to bet free odds bets online as the internet gets more popular. That's my explanation for why the state-wide holds are going down on all games.

I explained very clearly to Ira that the whole thing of trespassing me is unreasonable. He informed me that he didn't need a reason, but that it all started with the "mechanical" device that I used. I will continue to do my investigations by having other people perform counts for me, however. They cannot prohibit me from doing my work, just prohibit me from personally collecting the data. I would rather have someone else collect the data anyway.

If you bring in a pad and pen to track faces in that casino will they trespass you as well? If they are worried about dice that have been in use too long and the wear on them is causing non standard outcomes, that is protected by the fact that the bowl contains 5 dice that get scrambled every hand. You would need to be the best in the world at the ol cup and ball game to keep track of faces per dice in a stick of 5...

The short answer is that I have absolutely no idea. All I found is that they won't let me play there even when I'm not writing anything down and only betting big on other shooters. They just didn't like me betting with a couple hundred on the felt at a time is the most likely explanation.

I was down $250 when I got trespassed.