NFL Parlays & Teasers Frenzy 2021

[Tgold]

Thx for updates r_ventura_23. Your 7 teamer was close(& difficult to hit).

DarthN:"7 legs is rough, especially when a early sunday game kills it,"

I agree on 7teamer being difficult. I find favor sometimes doing(5 wins with 4 presses: W WWWW).


My only nfl wager this week as note in post above : "My top prop this week is on the 12/25 game GB vs Browns. Browns qb BakerM TotPasYds: 209.5 "OVER". This gets my pressed-up wager. May the streak last another week."

WINNER as Browns qb BakerM covered the (209.5--OVER) with a 222yds. It will likely be increasingly more difficult finding that perfect PropBet spot in the next couple weeks as teams and players start quitting and or trying to lose. Just my opinion of course. We shall see.


All the best,

[DarthNater]

My only nfl wager this week as note in post above : "My top prop this week is on the 12/25 game GB vs Browns. Browns qb BakerM TotPasYds: 209.5 "OVER". This gets my pressed-up wager. May the streak last another week."

WINNER as Browns qb BakerM covered the (209.5--OVER) with a 222yds. It will likely be increasingly more difficult finding that perfect PropBet spot in the next couple weeks as teams and players start quitting and or trying to lose. Just my opinion of course. We shall see.


All the best,

Time to profit harvest that multi week beast, Tgold. Last two weeks are sketchy with a major winter event forecast in GB. Take it back to double the original base or wait for the playoffs. That’s what John Patrick would do

DN8R

[DarthNater]

Week # 17 is at hand and we're still seeing a lot of covid impacts while the NFL reduces quarantines from 10 to 5 days.

I like TB teased down to -6.5 and GB in the Sunday game teased to Pick'em. Expecting winter weather in GB Sunday night. Now the choice is DAL to +1, or taking a flyer on LAR. We'll see after the injury updates tomorrow as no games till sunday, DN8R

[DarthNater]

Well, I went with TB, Dal, and GB for a bunch of pizzas. Now GB has gone to -13 with Cousins out - still worth teasing, DN8R

[Blackcloud]

UNHH!! The cowboys got a gift from Wash-ing-TON' but the party is over UNHH!!

[Parson]

Well not NFL, but Notre Dame killed my six leg parlay with their loss by 2. They totally faded away after first half run up.. Kentucky gave me a push, so it became a 5 leg …. Was sitting pretty good there for awhile, was looking forward to watching the final leg orange bowl, with ole miss as my pick.

[Tgold]

Hi all/Happy New Year.

DarthN: "...Time to profit harvest that multi week beast, Tgold. Last two weeks are sketchy with a major winter event forecast in GB. Take it back to double the original base or wait for the playoffs. That’s what John Patrick would do.."
I like your thoughts on GB. I also like the flyer on Rams. I did not wager on either, though I seriously contemplated the Rams.

I agree profit taking is always a consideration and never a bad idea. However, in the unique case of my pressed-up wager and its season long winning streak(10-0). I parlayed everything the on the first three wins, & have compounded something on every win, did a slight stutter step after 5th win, then immediately went into an exponential regime. So for this somewhat unexpected situation my wager is enjoying Mr Compound is out for blood(& he is merciless) and continues compounding exponentially with their monies.

I'm sure the favor I have found will not last forever.
I would like to think it was my superlative Prop Bet wagering skill. However, I must give credit to a friend that is a full-time WSOP and poker professional as he gave me the first three winners in this streak(mostly QB underperformances on very biased prop spots),. In the past two years he has really started doing well with sports handicapping/ primarily NFL Prop bets with a few parlays sprinkled in.

My current 10-0 pressed-up wager streak would actually be even better except a couple times I set my pressed up wager aside and only did a base 1-unit wager in that spot. I found myself introducing personal logic/emotions that went counter to my analytics(Meaning I chickened out a couple times when the pressed up wager reached higher levels). Oh well the streak lives another week and hopefully survives this Sunday.
I considered not wagering this week as several key concepts I like to monitor are diminishing. Coupled with the fact that bias is getting more difficult to discern.

My only Prop bet this week : Falcons QB Matt Ryan tot pass yards(200.5): "OVER". This gets my pressed-up wager.

It is indeed a tough match up against the Bills as they are double-digit favs and #1 ranked D against the pass. We shall see.
May the streak last another week.

All the best

[DarthNater]

I like that Ryan bet too, good luck, DN8R

[Tgold]

Hi everyone /thx for sharing nfl thoughts/wager.
Parson--I liked your ole miss wager. Their best player(qb) going down early was a bummer.

"DOWN GOES TGOLD" . My personal best sports handicapping streak has ended. Actually, my only win streak as I have wagered more nfl wagers this season then any past year.

Tgold: "My only Prop bet this week : Falcons QB Matt Ryan tot pass yards(200.5): "OVER". This gets my pressed-up wager."

Ryan finished with (197) in a game the bills did a masterful job with clock management by running the ball. Thus keeping falcons qb Ryan on the sideline most of the 4th qtr. They wisely protected their 14pt lead and milked the clock. Hats off to the bills and their coaching staff.



All the best,

[r_ventura_23]

He is not Matty Ice....he is just Ice Cold.

[Tgold]

Thats good r_ventura_23 : "He is not Matty Ice....he is just Ice Cold."



All the best,

[DarthNater]

That was tough as Ryan was only like six yards from the win.

It was a choppy week. In game saved me again as I was able to grab Jets +5.5 +258 near the end of the 3rd quarter as covering 6.5 looked impossible even for Mister Brady. I netted out a couple of pizzas actually and then like an idiot I doubled down on a two way teaser with Dal and GB. Then Dallas gagged and I lucked into an ARZ +2.5 +160 to only lose a pepperoni. Then of course GB skates as does NE and Ten.

Guess if it was easy everyone would be doing it.

Now it’s on to week # 18. The final week has always been chaos, so might have to wait for the playoffs, we’ll see, DN8R

[DarthNater]

The last week of the season is always frustrating for me and it has nothing to do adding the extra game this year. Sure there are the four games in the AFC to determine the number one seed. And there is LAR-SF for the Division and a home playoff game. And the win and in game between LV and LAC on SNF. A lot of the permutations hinge on the slim possibility that JAX beats INDY. So if Indy gets ahead do several teams lay down, presuming they show up?

I might actually save the football betting bankroll and watch the golf from Kapalua instead as that Plantation Course is such a great place to play. It’s a limited field of 39 and I’ve got to go to the sports book for the props as they aren’t on the apps as I want to see the finish in the top 5 and Top 10 money lines. I like the top three money line guys to all finish high, so need those top five lines.

Back to football, it’s who do you have a strong opinion on and will they play their starters long enough to win, let alone cover? So I’m looking at money line parlays this week, DN8R

[Tgold]

Hi all.
DarthN: "...Back to football, it’s who do you have a strong opinion on and will they play their starters long enough to win, let alone cover?.."

I agree as we wont know til game time re: how motivated the players/team will be to finish strong. Thats one of the reasons Im only researching the SF-LaR game (Rams currently at -4.5) as potentially finding a Prop wager.
Both teams have motivation for reasons DN mentions above. I have my top research team looking at these two props (though I have not wagered yet):

A) Ram receiver Cooper Kupp tot rec yards (137.5) "UNDER" . I give a slight nod to this one due in part to his season numbers being so good that SpBooks have recently and are skewed a little too high on him(imo).

b) SF receiver D Samuel tot rec yards (47.5) "OVER" . I have already picked up winning props on mr deebo samuel this season/ like him again here. Especially if 49ers are behind in 4th qtr they likely will be passing a couple extra times to Deebo vs running the ball. Just in theory of course as we never know.

One of many thoughts to consider is on Passing Yards Against Per Game for the season: SF is ranked 5th (giving up just 207 per gm) and LaR are ranked 20th (giving up 237 per game).

Any thoughts or opinions?

All the best,

[r_ventura_23]

Just one play for me so far. Giants PLUS 7.5.

Here is the reason. I bet the Reskins season win total OVER 6.5. They have had 6 wins for 4 weeks now. I am in a beautiful situation.
If the Redskins win by 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 7, I win both bets. If the Redskins blow them out, I break even. If the Giants win, same deal.

Division game in January, hopefully they keep it close.

[DarthNater]

Just one play for me so far. Giants PLUS 7.5.

Here is the reason. I bet the Reskins season win total OVER 6.5. They have had 6 wins for 4 weeks now. I am in a beautiful situation.
If the Redskins win by 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 7, I win both bets. If the Redskins blow them out, I break even. If the Giants win, same deal.

Division game in January, hopefully they keep it close.

Nice play, NYG down to +7 w/ WH. Good luck, DN8R

[Parson]

Well i have three parlays working this weekend.
A 9 , 8 and 7 leg

I was gonna go over on the raider game at 49.5 but it moved up like two points so dropped them so i have two odd number legs

[DarthNater]

Well i have three parlays working this weekend.
A 9 , 8 and 7 leg

I was gonna go over on the raider game at 49.5 but it moved up like two points so dropped them so i have two odd number legs

LAC is healthy and I can't figure out the Raiders at all. Since they are the local team there is always a ton of churn. I have that game as a no play.

Good luck on the your legs. I like the usual suspects teased down, KC, GB, TB. Looking at LAR waiting for the SF QB info. Staying away from CLV/CIN, BAL/PIT too much drama and rona in there.

Good luck all, DN8R

[Tgold]

Thanks for picks /comments r Ventura 23, parson, DarthN.

My only pick this week is nfl Prop: Ravens Qb Tyler Huntley tot pass yds 223.5 "UNDER" . Ravens coached named him the starter yesterday as num 1 qb is still on bench with injury. T Huntley is getting his 4th consec start this week. He has been mostly efficient thus far. However, after much research by my analytics department it is my opinion this 223.5 is skewed upward/ shall drop as we approach game time.

I still like my two picks above that i said I was considering. I give a slight edge to this one.

More later and all the best to all of your picks,tg

[r_ventura_23]

Just one play for me so far. Giants PLUS 7.5.

Here is the reason. I bet the Reskins season win total OVER 6.5. They have had 6 wins for 4 weeks now. I am in a beautiful situation.
If the Redskins win by 1,2,3,4,5,6 or 7, I win both bets. If the Redskins blow them out, I break even. If the Giants win, same deal.

Division game in January, hopefully they keep it close.

Nice play, NYG down to +7 w/ WH. Good luck, DN8R

It was 7. I paid the juice for the hook.