To Lay or Not to Lay - That is the Question

[heavy]

Let's say you've bet $5 - 5 - 5 on the ATS and have already hit the Tall side. You need the 5 to hit the Small and the All. You'll win an additional $150 on the 30-1 payoff on the Small and an additional $750 if you hit the ALL, so you're looking at possibly scoring another $900 by hitting that 5. Do you simply go for the big win and shoot for the 5, or do you guarantee yourself a smaller win by Laying the 5 for . . . say $300 to win $200 if the 7 shows . . . or maybe $600 to win $400 . . . or some other amount? And if you do Lay the 5, do you ever think about hedging the Lay with a few hop bets on the 5 just in case you actually pull it out of the hat and score the full monty? That's the question. Let's hear your answers.

[r_ventura_23]

I am going to lay 300 to win 200.

I hedge every one of my parlays in baseball and football and I am certainly not leaving $900 on the table.

[220Inside]

I generally do not lay the last number. I'll change sets, based on my coaster group tendencies from bone tracker, to one that is dominant for that last number. The new features in BT have really changed my approach to the game in this regard. I am now a lot more confident in switching sets to try and snipe numbers without sacrificing SRR.

[Big O]

First if you are looking for a guarantee craps is probably not the game for you. In this case however you have already secured a guaranteed win. You have been paid 30 to 35 times your original bet on which ever half hit. You have been paid 10-11.66 times your total bet even if the other side doesn’t hit so its not an all or nothing bet at this point. Reminds me of some advice I learned from a very wealthy customer when I overheard a phone conversation he had with his stockbroker when he was in my archery shop one day. Evidently, a stock he had recently purchased was dropping and the broker called to see if he wanted to sell. His words, “if I liked the stock at 75 dollars a share, I love it at 50! Don’t sell buy more.” If you liked the ATS bet enough to place it when you needed 10 numbers (and we all know it is a bad high house edge bet) you should love, it when you just need one number! If they would let me, when I just need one number, I would press my bet not hedge it. If there was a one number bet on the table that paid 150-175 to one who wouldn’t take that bet?

To the Di viewpoint of the argument. There are so many variables its hard to discuss them all but it boils down to if you believe or not. Mark mentioned confidence in his ability to bring it home. I am the same way. At that point of the hand, I am so focused on hitting the bet I don’t consider laying it. With the new bonetracker and the ability to identify sets to snipe numbers many DIs are changing their perspectives from looking at the ATS as a pure novelty bet to a potential money maker. If you believe in DI you have to consider the mental aspect as well. I have heard some say it relaxes them when they make the lay. Of course it does because you are giving yourself permission to fail! If laying the bet affects the shooter it can become an EDE and a self-fulfilling prophesy.

The length of the hand, whats happening at the table, how you feel, are you up are you down money wise. So many things to consider. If enough of them stack up would I lay the last number? On myself, probably not, im in it to win it. On you, I might. If I can do it without messing with your state of mind. I don’t play it on everyone. So if I bet it I thought you had a chance of making it. No guts no glory

If I did lay, I wouldn’t hedge. I do my best to stay off the 4 Hs. Hops, Hardways Horns (except for GWAG) and Hedges.

[heavy]

His words, “if I liked the stock at 75 dollars a share, I love it at 50! Don’t sell buy more.” If you liked the ATS bet enough to place it when you needed 10 numbers (and we all know it is a bad high house edge bet) you should love, it when you just need one number! If they would let me, when I just need one number, I would press my bet not hedge it. If there was a one number bet on the table that paid 150-175 to one who wouldn’t take that bet?

Off topic, but this comment reminded me of another bet. Since the $15 table became the norm in many markets, a lot of players (myself included) who would normally bet something like $64 across have started betting $66 inside or $66 even numbers. I prefer even numbers because I tend to toss more tens than nines and I think it's to my advantage to bet the four and ten. So here's the question that arises out of the $15 four or ten bet. If you could get paid $12 to $5 instead of $9 to $5 on the four or ten would you bet it? Clock is ticking (tick . . . tick . . . tick) Ding. Of course you would. By Buying the ten for $20 instead of placing it for $15 you'll get paid net $39 instead of $27 on the place bet. That's $12 more for an additional $5 bet. So you $66 even number guys might want to consider making that $76 even numbers (where they collect the vig on the win) so you'll get that $12 to $5 payoff on that extra $5 bet. Hmmmm. Boggles the mind, right?

[220Inside]

The same goes for the 5 and 9 in Biloxi where they auto buy at 20 (except for cheap ass Harrahs which doesn't auto buy until $40,and they'll make it sound like they're doing you a favor). A $15 5/9 pays $21 while a $20 bet pays $29.

[AllahPena]

Big O is right. If the money is super important to you and it will put you in a much better position then it's a personal choice but its a bad insurance move.

[DarthNater]

If you liked the ATS bet enough to place it when you needed 10 numbers (and we all know it is a bad high house edge bet) you should love, it when you just need one number! If they would let me, when I just need one number, I would press my bet not hedge it. If there was a one number bet on the table that paid 150-175 to one who wouldn’t take that bet?

That's a Great Quote. I don't hedge either & wish I could double down when its one number. I don't care about the house edge, that was calculated by a guy that doesn't believe in DI. Yeah, yeah, I know, lock up the sure win. Frankly, I'd rather crank up my Coaster set card and nail that five. Between the practicing, the recording, the analyzing, that's what I'm there for... the $900 toss at 5/5/5, or more if I'm 10/10/10. Am I gonna hit it every time? Nope; but I'm going for it.

By the way the Strat let's me lay a number on their crapless table, anyone gonna lay the 2 at 1 for 6?

DN8R

[rhythm roller]

I don't bet the bonus bets often but I never hedge or lay bet if it is close. I think it is gravy when all that is left is one box number to hit it. Do I always hit that number that is left? Of course not but better odds than having to toss a horn number to complete it. For me anyway. The vig is a sucker bet but it can be entertaining so I am going all in with a chance to hit it. I want it all!

[heavy]

Here's my take. If you're playing with a small bankroll and are playing tight you probably shouldn't be playing the ATS anyway. However, if you're taking your shot AND you're on a tight bankroll, then you should Lay the last point for the same reason that I tell you to have win goals and loss limits - and to get in, get up, and get gone. A lot of small wins eventually add up to a large win. That's how you grind it out and build a bankroll.

If you have a mid-sized bankroll and can afford to take a shot without worrying about losing $15 or $25 on YOUR hand on the ATS then don't sweat the money and don't hedge it. But just as I recommend with any prop betting, set aside a portion of your bankroll when you buy-in specifically FOR betting the ATS. If you score an ATS win that session those winnings go in the back of the rack with your prop betting money. But once you've run through all of your dedicated prop betting money for that session - you're through betting the props for that session. That will at least keep you from chasing YOUR prop bet losses on YOUR hands by betting the ATS on every other swinging dick at the table. And those that don't swing, for that matter. Simple money management. Only bet the ATS when you have some sort of an advantage, or at least have reduced the house's edge on it, via your shooting skills.

If you have relatively unlimited bankroll and don't sweat the losses - bet as much as the casino will let you on the ATS as often as you want to . . . as long as the casino will continue to offer you credit and you have the wherewithal to redeem those markers. If it gets to the point that you can't - it's probably time to find another game. If you're hooked on dice, backgammon is quite popular with the rich and famous. Since it's a one-on-one game, you're not playing against the house.
You're playing against another skilled player. Just be careful of those crooked dice cups.