Stratocasterman has a great 4 step progression and a recovery bet that did get a tiny bit larger over time. It works because of the low starting dollar amount of pesos.
Having a larger spread of bets is key to weather the storm to get into the plus.
A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
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stratocasterman
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:55 pm
- Location: Manila, Philippines
Greetings Again!
Yes, I am still alive! Vaxed, fully boosted and COVID 19 free so far. Haven't been back to the casino yet BUT, plans are to return soon for some Baccarat and Craps play!
I had told you before that I had purchased a Baccarat simulation testing software package, Baccarat Buster 2. Dennis has now upgraded the package to version 3 and I installed it recently. I have again begun to test playing/betting strategies.
My current strategy, that has seemed to tested well, is playing BOTH sides of the fence (Player and Banker) in an alternating fashion with a Heavy's version of a Fibonacci progression. My reasoning here was to develop something that was a good fit for playing in the "Stadium Seating" area. That way, I can play in an area with good social distancing (still have 3,000 COVID cases a day here locally in Manila), LOW minimum bets and by myself with no distractions.
My latest strategy is basically the same as the Negative Progression Study/Strategy here with "Target Betting". Bet only the next occurrence of either Player or Banker, after it transitions from one to the other. As you well know, I am usually a proponent of only betting on Banker. This time, I decided to not get caught when either Player or Banker were both making runs. Still, I do NOT bet after a Tie. I just wait for a Player or Banker to show up and then bet for the second appearance within a potential run.
Examples:
PBPBP After every alternating occurrence, I would "Target" the second occurrence to happen. In this case of alternating single occurrences, I would have 5 losses in a row since there never was a second occurrence of the same.
PBBPPP Here, I would have a Player loss, then a Banker Win, then a Player Win. Now waiting for the second occurrence of a Banker to happen.
Here in the Philippines, the Peso is bet. Figure every 100P bet is $2.00. Adjust numbers to your comfort level.
My Fibonacci progression for "Stadium Seating":
Peso - 100, 100, 200, 300, 500, 800, 1300, 2100, 3400 = 8800 Total
OR
Dollar - 2, 2, 4, 6, 10, 16, 26, 42, 68 = 176 Total
After a Win, same bet. After 2 Wins in a row, go back to the base bet...starting the progression all over again.
I aim to use this strategy upon my return to the casinos and see how it goes. I realize this strategy may be similar to watching paint dry or a pine tree growing but, it's low entry and does pass the time. I average (with a good shoe) about $40-50 per shoe in simulations.
As usual, I take my Baccarat Wins to the Craps tables and the Lotto games so I have FREE play. Another excellent strategy IMO!
My return to the Craps tables should prove highly interesting. I'm going to have to break out my old practice rig and start tossing again first. Maybe the long layoff has eliminated old bad habits, hahaha! We shall surely see sooner than later. My main problem will be the betting lingo at the table from such a long layoff. Hell, maybe it's like riding a bike and it just comes right back to ya! It's kind of exciting to think about tossing again.
Speaking of Lotto, a side note to those that play the Pick5 or Pick6 Lotto games. I recently started playing a handful of tickets in the Pick6 games here in the Philippines again, with a totally NEW strategy/software subscription this month ($40 annual). The Lotto games here pay next to nothing UNLESS you hit the Grand Prize or 6 of 6 numbers. That's OK. I aim to hit 6 of 6 eventually, hahaha! I have hit 5 of 6 numbers several times averaging about 35-50K Pesos ($700-1000). I realize that is chump change compared to US Lotto games but, you have to hit 5 numbers before you can hit 6 numbers correct? That's my current philosophy. I usually hit at least 3 numbers. At that point, I have reduced my odds from 5 million plus to a few thousand. Well, that's a completely different subject that I might start a thread with if there's any interest out there. I just started this month and have numerous wins. It's proven itself to be pretty valid so far...
Nice to be back again! Hope to hear from you out there and I plan to get some Trip Reports back out here too.
Always...Michael
I had told you before that I had purchased a Baccarat simulation testing software package, Baccarat Buster 2. Dennis has now upgraded the package to version 3 and I installed it recently. I have again begun to test playing/betting strategies.
My current strategy, that has seemed to tested well, is playing BOTH sides of the fence (Player and Banker) in an alternating fashion with a Heavy's version of a Fibonacci progression. My reasoning here was to develop something that was a good fit for playing in the "Stadium Seating" area. That way, I can play in an area with good social distancing (still have 3,000 COVID cases a day here locally in Manila), LOW minimum bets and by myself with no distractions.
My latest strategy is basically the same as the Negative Progression Study/Strategy here with "Target Betting". Bet only the next occurrence of either Player or Banker, after it transitions from one to the other. As you well know, I am usually a proponent of only betting on Banker. This time, I decided to not get caught when either Player or Banker were both making runs. Still, I do NOT bet after a Tie. I just wait for a Player or Banker to show up and then bet for the second appearance within a potential run.
Examples:
PBPBP After every alternating occurrence, I would "Target" the second occurrence to happen. In this case of alternating single occurrences, I would have 5 losses in a row since there never was a second occurrence of the same.
PBBPPP Here, I would have a Player loss, then a Banker Win, then a Player Win. Now waiting for the second occurrence of a Banker to happen.
Here in the Philippines, the Peso is bet. Figure every 100P bet is $2.00. Adjust numbers to your comfort level.
My Fibonacci progression for "Stadium Seating":
Peso - 100, 100, 200, 300, 500, 800, 1300, 2100, 3400 = 8800 Total
OR
Dollar - 2, 2, 4, 6, 10, 16, 26, 42, 68 = 176 Total
After a Win, same bet. After 2 Wins in a row, go back to the base bet...starting the progression all over again.
I aim to use this strategy upon my return to the casinos and see how it goes. I realize this strategy may be similar to watching paint dry or a pine tree growing but, it's low entry and does pass the time. I average (with a good shoe) about $40-50 per shoe in simulations.
As usual, I take my Baccarat Wins to the Craps tables and the Lotto games so I have FREE play. Another excellent strategy IMO!
My return to the Craps tables should prove highly interesting. I'm going to have to break out my old practice rig and start tossing again first. Maybe the long layoff has eliminated old bad habits, hahaha! We shall surely see sooner than later. My main problem will be the betting lingo at the table from such a long layoff. Hell, maybe it's like riding a bike and it just comes right back to ya! It's kind of exciting to think about tossing again.
Speaking of Lotto, a side note to those that play the Pick5 or Pick6 Lotto games. I recently started playing a handful of tickets in the Pick6 games here in the Philippines again, with a totally NEW strategy/software subscription this month ($40 annual). The Lotto games here pay next to nothing UNLESS you hit the Grand Prize or 6 of 6 numbers. That's OK. I aim to hit 6 of 6 eventually, hahaha! I have hit 5 of 6 numbers several times averaging about 35-50K Pesos ($700-1000). I realize that is chump change compared to US Lotto games but, you have to hit 5 numbers before you can hit 6 numbers correct? That's my current philosophy. I usually hit at least 3 numbers. At that point, I have reduced my odds from 5 million plus to a few thousand. Well, that's a completely different subject that I might start a thread with if there's any interest out there. I just started this month and have numerous wins. It's proven itself to be pretty valid so far...
Nice to be back again! Hope to hear from you out there and I plan to get some Trip Reports back out here too.
Always...Michael
What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"
"Get in, get up, get gone"
Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy
Great to see you back. I was afraid you'd dropped off the Covid cliff. Interesting stuff on the Stadium Baccarat. I may give that some thought next time I have some time to kill in Vegas. Lotto? Not so much. LOL. Good luck.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
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stratocasterman
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:55 pm
- Location: Manila, Philippines
Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy
I forgot to mention two great items about Stadium Baccarat here. One, you can bet anything from $2-$10,000. So if you're doing well, you can always escalate your Fib progression.
Two, the Baccarat and Roulette games are live dealers at most of the casinos I've been to.
Thanks for the reply Heavy!
What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"
"Get in, get up, get gone"
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crapsjourney
- Posts: 393
- Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2015 3:33 am
- Location: Brisbane, Australia
- Contact:
Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy
While I have played live dealer stadium style - I do enjoy it - but actively shy away from the live dealer version at the casinos over here.
2 reasons.
1. They are to slow for me - I end up playing both their hands (they usually have 2 games on the go - one after the other)
Disclosure - I have never played real version - squeezing cards - I would not be able to take the slowness - or the high minimums.
2. Live stadium dealers have $10 minimum - and I like to start my progressions / regression resets at $1 - my bankroll dictates this.
2 reasons.
1. They are to slow for me - I end up playing both their hands (they usually have 2 games on the go - one after the other)
Disclosure - I have never played real version - squeezing cards - I would not be able to take the slowness - or the high minimums.
2. Live stadium dealers have $10 minimum - and I like to start my progressions / regression resets at $1 - my bankroll dictates this.
-- Aaron
Craps Journey podcast for my adventures in craps
Craps Journey podcast for my adventures in craps
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stratocasterman
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:55 pm
- Location: Manila, Philippines
Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy
Headed back to the casino today for the first time since the dreaded Covid-19 hit. I just played one complete Baccarat shoe today and scored every bet but one playing my "Banker only Target Betting" (the second occurrence of a Banker result). My one loss was followed by a doubled up bet for a Win the next time around.
All in all a very good day scoring a 15K Pesos in winnings ($300) at a 2000 Peso ($40) min table. Only spent about an hour there. $300 an hour isn't a bad wage for an older retired fart! Target betting STILL gets the job done for me!!!
It was basically a perfect shoe of Banker runs nearly every time. Gotta love it!
How about you...any recent Baccarat successes?
All in all a very good day scoring a 15K Pesos in winnings ($300) at a 2000 Peso ($40) min table. Only spent about an hour there. $300 an hour isn't a bad wage for an older retired fart! Target betting STILL gets the job done for me!!!
It was basically a perfect shoe of Banker runs nearly every time. Gotta love it!
How about you...any recent Baccarat successes?
What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"
"Get in, get up, get gone"
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stratocasterman
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:55 pm
- Location: Manila, Philippines
Re: A Negative Progression Baccarat Study/Strategy
Aaron,crapsjourney wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 1:53 pm While I have played live dealer stadium style - I do enjoy it - but actively shy away from the live dealer version at the casinos over here.
2 reasons.
1. They are to slow for me - I end up playing both their hands (they usually have 2 games on the go - one after the other)
Disclosure - I have never played real version - squeezing cards - I would not be able to take the slowness - or the high minimums.
2. Live stadium dealers have $10 minimum - and I like to start my progressions / regression resets at $1 - my bankroll dictates this.
Most of the stadiums here are $2 minimum but, they all are live dealers so yes it does go slow. Usually 2 decks dealing to play by,so you can play two at a time. They are usually off-set.
What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"
"Get in, get up, get gone"
-
stratocasterman
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:55 pm
- Location: Manila, Philippines
June 19-23, 2023
Decided to travel back to the casino since February. I revisited the big 3 here and finally settled on Okada because of the lower 2000Peso minimum tables. The other plus was that there are more people there and more open tables. The week saw me there 3 times and it was mainly to get back into the groove and feel things out. Especially, my read/feel of the cards and shoes.
I stumbled a bit the first couple of days. I played my usual "roaming around all the tables" style...looking for good opportunity bets. I was pretty much hit and miss. I'd win, I'd lose, I'd then move up the Fibonacci progression with my losses. I'd get a Win, then drop down the progression one step...then lose again.
I got frustrated as hell with this! I was just spinning my wheels and staying even basically. So, I decided bullshit! I'm going to just find a fresh shoe and sit. I'll play it if things go well...if they don't, I'll just find another table to sit down to.
This produced about the same kind of results as my "roaming around all the tables" style but, it felt a little more comfortable. Besides, I got to "squeeze" a few cards too.
I did this for Wins of $60 Monday and $80 Wednesday. Better than a loss! Get in, get up, get gone right???
Friday was a bit different. I suppose I had finally got my bearings and became re-acclimated to the game, shoes and tables. I cruised around and looked for a new shoe that had at least 2-3 opening runs of 3 or more. Found it! Sat down and played to a $200 Win (my goal) in less than 30 minutes! I think I only lost one hand Target betting the second Banker. Probably could have won more but, the shoe was starting to turn against runs.
$340 for the week...I'm happy.
Michael 3 - Casino 0
On another note, I finally contracted Covid back in March. I thought I was 10 foot tall and bullet proof after dodging it from the wife, grand-kid, family and friends. I had a bit of a runny nose and that was it. I didn't even realize I had it until someone else in the household said they had it. I ended up getting my 3rd booster of the Bivalent directly afterwards. Hell, THAT made me sick for 3 days! So weird...oh well.
Tell me, have you played the Target Betting strategy lately?
Next up is some craps practice rig tosses and a trip to the $6 and $10 tables very soon!
I stumbled a bit the first couple of days. I played my usual "roaming around all the tables" style...looking for good opportunity bets. I was pretty much hit and miss. I'd win, I'd lose, I'd then move up the Fibonacci progression with my losses. I'd get a Win, then drop down the progression one step...then lose again.
I got frustrated as hell with this! I was just spinning my wheels and staying even basically. So, I decided bullshit! I'm going to just find a fresh shoe and sit. I'll play it if things go well...if they don't, I'll just find another table to sit down to.
This produced about the same kind of results as my "roaming around all the tables" style but, it felt a little more comfortable. Besides, I got to "squeeze" a few cards too.
I did this for Wins of $60 Monday and $80 Wednesday. Better than a loss! Get in, get up, get gone right???
Friday was a bit different. I suppose I had finally got my bearings and became re-acclimated to the game, shoes and tables. I cruised around and looked for a new shoe that had at least 2-3 opening runs of 3 or more. Found it! Sat down and played to a $200 Win (my goal) in less than 30 minutes! I think I only lost one hand Target betting the second Banker. Probably could have won more but, the shoe was starting to turn against runs.
$340 for the week...I'm happy.
Michael 3 - Casino 0
On another note, I finally contracted Covid back in March. I thought I was 10 foot tall and bullet proof after dodging it from the wife, grand-kid, family and friends. I had a bit of a runny nose and that was it. I didn't even realize I had it until someone else in the household said they had it. I ended up getting my 3rd booster of the Bivalent directly afterwards. Hell, THAT made me sick for 3 days! So weird...oh well.
Tell me, have you played the Target Betting strategy lately?
Next up is some craps practice rig tosses and a trip to the $6 and $10 tables very soon!
What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"
"Get in, get up, get gone"
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stratocasterman
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:55 pm
- Location: Manila, Philippines
June 29 & 30,2023
Repost from my Trip Reports
Friday I went back to my old stomping ground, Resorts World Manila on Friday for some craps 14 foot $10 table action. Everything is so new and different. They even renamed the casino to Newport World Resorts and opened up an auxiliary casino across the street in another new hotel.
I opted to just play the Pass/Don't Pass Strategy until I could get a read on my toss before laying out any real cash. I have been practicing at home very successfully!
7, 6, 7...well shit. Next 4, 7...well shit again! Next next 12, 7, 7, 6, 7...Oh fuck it!!! Don't know why everyone at the table was loading up on their bets with me??? Hell, I embarrassed myself and felt sorry for them. I apologized and left. I suppose my $1000 buy-in gave them confidence to bet on me or something.
I walked over to the Baccarat tables and Won $100 in 15 minutes on 2 bets.
Thursday I traveled back to Okada for some more Baccarat Target Betting. I didn't stay too long (45 minutes) but. still cashed in for a $120 Win!
Michael 5 - Casino 0
Friday I went back to my old stomping ground, Resorts World Manila on Friday for some craps 14 foot $10 table action. Everything is so new and different. They even renamed the casino to Newport World Resorts and opened up an auxiliary casino across the street in another new hotel.
I opted to just play the Pass/Don't Pass Strategy until I could get a read on my toss before laying out any real cash. I have been practicing at home very successfully!
7, 6, 7...well shit. Next 4, 7...well shit again! Next next 12, 7, 7, 6, 7...Oh fuck it!!! Don't know why everyone at the table was loading up on their bets with me??? Hell, I embarrassed myself and felt sorry for them. I apologized and left. I suppose my $1000 buy-in gave them confidence to bet on me or something.
I walked over to the Baccarat tables and Won $100 in 15 minutes on 2 bets.
Thursday I traveled back to Okada for some more Baccarat Target Betting. I didn't stay too long (45 minutes) but. still cashed in for a $120 Win!
Michael 5 - Casino 0
What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"
"Get in, get up, get gone"
-
stratocasterman
- Posts: 768
- Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2016 7:55 pm
- Location: Manila, Philippines
July 5, 2023
Repost from my Trip Reports
Went to Okada again today. It's an easy to play casino with great Baccarat tables. I find the majority of players are cordial and easy to play with. Being a Japanese owned/styled casino, most players are Japanese or Korean. They play with style and LOTS of cash!
I was back and forth on Wins and losses early on. I had reached a $200 Fibonacci progression bet on $40 tables several times. I finally said bullshit on these wavering shoes and got up and left the $40 section for the $60 tables. Hell, I was making at least $60 to $200 bets anyway. Why not check out some other shoes on the higher $60 minimum tables?
Made a good move. Won $200 on my first bet. That brought me back to like a $20 profit. Next bet was my second Win $120 Fibonacci progression bet for a Win. Next bet, Back to $60 table minimum bet...Win. One more time, $60 bet for a Win again...four in a row second Banker Target bets.
$260 Profit in a hour. I love it. I usually never spend more than a hour in the casino at Baccarat averaging $100-250 Wins. Keeps me fresh every week and supplements my retirement well.
Michael 6 - Casino 0
Went to Okada again today. It's an easy to play casino with great Baccarat tables. I find the majority of players are cordial and easy to play with. Being a Japanese owned/styled casino, most players are Japanese or Korean. They play with style and LOTS of cash!
I was back and forth on Wins and losses early on. I had reached a $200 Fibonacci progression bet on $40 tables several times. I finally said bullshit on these wavering shoes and got up and left the $40 section for the $60 tables. Hell, I was making at least $60 to $200 bets anyway. Why not check out some other shoes on the higher $60 minimum tables?
Made a good move. Won $200 on my first bet. That brought me back to like a $20 profit. Next bet was my second Win $120 Fibonacci progression bet for a Win. Next bet, Back to $60 table minimum bet...Win. One more time, $60 bet for a Win again...four in a row second Banker Target bets.
$260 Profit in a hour. I love it. I usually never spend more than a hour in the casino at Baccarat averaging $100-250 Wins. Keeps me fresh every week and supplements my retirement well.
Michael 6 - Casino 0
What Heavy said...
"Get in, get up, get gone"
"Get in, get up, get gone"