SWITCHING TO THE DONTS

[kumar]

Heavy's latest newsletter outlined some great options when playing the Donts

Most players are right side bettors;Question-what triggers do you use to switch to the Donts?

[r_ventura_23]

Even though sometimes I wish I would have, I don't switch mid session.

When I used to go the the casinos anytime I wanted I would play the Donts often. I had great luck using the Patrick System.

[dork]

Hmmm. When I switch it's not really logical. I'll change whenever the shooters bust my initial bets out 4x in a row without me breaking even once.

I'll switch off the Don't back to the PL and Place bets when a shooter hits a single place number 3x AND makes the Point, or I lose two full hands (having set three Don't bets [and their odds after the 3rd bet]).

[heavy]

My old trigger used to be if I lost on three consecutive shooters. It was either switch to the Don'ts or end the session. These days I look for reasons to switch sooner. I watch trends closer - are the sevens expanding or contracting - how did this NEXT shooter do last time? And after any really good hand, I'll almost always switch to the Don'ts on the next hand. Last session I played, five shooters in a row set the 9 as the point and all five of them sevened out without making it. There's an indicator for you. If the shooter before you sevened out without making a number - hop it and play the DP at the same time. Then consider Laying Odds? Maybe. You just never know at this game.

[Crapsjunkie]

I track the last 20 point outcomes. If <8 points have hit, I play PL full odds. If >=8, then DP full odds. The only exception is I follow streaks until they end. If 3 PLs or 4 DPs points in a row have hit, I’ll ride until the streak ends then resume the original strategy.

[mainframe]

Yeah, I have heard lots of convention wisdom over the years from fellow players (DI rollers as well as non-DI craps bettors) that you really shouldn't switch between regular and dark side betting in the same session at the same table.


Technically, there is no mathematical reason not to "switch to the don'ts". However, from a superstition or zen energy or player morale perspective, I can see why "switching sides" mid-hand or mid-gaming session is considered a bit of a faux-pas.

Sure, there are "trends" and sometimes a cable turns cold, and betting don't obviously pays off when the trend is indicating a lot of seven-outs.

I personally have had mixed results/success with arbitrarily switching from pass/come to DP/DC betting either on a whim or based on a "gut feeling".

I have changed sides on a shooter that eneded up establishing a four/ten as the point number, and I even hedged my DP with Lay odds with a "hard 4" or "hard 10" that would offset the DP loss and ended up having the shooter hit his point as "easy four/easy ten".

I have also done a gut-instinct switch to DP and ended up winning my hand while the entire table or right-side betters lost everything on the layout.

Ive even felt guilty when I won with a meager $10 DP with $30 lay odds (lay 30 win 20) and the entire table of right side betters had hundreds or thousands at stake on the layout.

In a perfect world, no one would fault you for playing what your gut told you was the right set of bets even if your bets are diametrically opposed to everyone else's. Just like, in a perfect world, no one would fault you for sitting out of or participating in a particular hand of black jack where supposedly, the cards drawn (or not drawn) from the deck for "your hand" theoretically "screwed" another player at the BJ table. Its all just probabilities.

[kumar]

There is nothing wrong in the middle of a session to switching to the Donts since within a session 3-4 shooters may support Dont play and vice versa

The big challenge is switching to the Donts when your group considers that move bad luck;in such a case just playing the 3-5 count may allow one to survive

[heavy]

The big challenge is switching to the Donts when your group considers that move bad luck;in such a case just playing the 3-5 count may allow one to survive

First off - these days when I do a class, on the Sunday before we go out to play a live session I tell them that I MAY play the Don'ts in some way or fashion when they are shooting, and that this in no way should be considered a reflection on them or how good of a shooter I think they are. It's simply a part of a strategy I'm playing. I often play a "straddle" play, with a Don't Pass combined with Place Action. I might play $25 on the Don't Pass and the point travels to the Nine. Then I'll Place $24 each on the Six and Eight. One hit on the Six or Eight and I'm guaranteed a profit of $3 for that hand. Now, I'm off to the races if a hand develops. Otherwise, I've got a $3 profit. But if the shooter goes PSO I only lose $23 instead of $48. It's a simple hedge play. Get over it if you think I'm betting against you. I'm not. I'm protecting my bankroll. Other players in your group should be adult enough to understand that. If not - they don't belong in your group. They belong in the big crybaby group where the guy in charge slams his fist on the table and blames someone else every time he sevens out.

[Tgold]

Good discussion.

I'm an advocate for a positive progression /I believe we can find longer winning streaks by switching sides
vs. one side only.

I most generally start with a DC and then look for opportunities to switch to the Do(Pl) or Dp based on the data I'm seeing.
I find it helpful to record line bets similar to how we record Baccarat wagers(B,P) on a Bac tote board. So craps line bets are simply recorded as (D,P).

Re: Longer win streaks by wagering both sides (meaning wins In-A-Row: IAR).

What Im suggesting is that when we record Craps Line bets we will see a 5IAR win streak such as (DDDPP) or PPPDD or DDPDD ,...etc more often then we will see either DDDDD or PPPPP.

Same if I want to catch three wins IAR. I find it easier to catch a D then parlay it onto the PP (Or P DD) vs A shooter giving me a PPP for 3iar winners.

So obviously I'm all for switching to the Donts (or switching to the Dos).


Just my 2c

[kumar]

Heavy,I have a player who lives in Biloxi who plays your hedge style on unknown shooters to preserve capital.Just like you do a power press on the 4/10 he does it on the 6/8.
Whenever I show up he makes it a point to play one session with me .His time is at a premium since he owns two restaurants .I like playing with him because of the energy he brings.

[Big O]

he owns two restaurants .I like playing with him because of the energy he brings.

I think i played with hin before, i had a good night tossing and he invited me to his resturant.