How should house vig dictate my betting scheme?

[dork]

I think I've asked that correctly... I'd like advice on how to adjust my betting scheme with regard to a 4 and 10 bet. I'll outline my current betting scheme:

I'm the shooter and establish a Point on the CO roll... whatever that point is, I bet $30 each on all the Inside Place numbers, and $10 each on the 4 and/or 10, with no Odds on the PL to start. My betting scheme is based on the idea that I can roll two Place numbers before the Red, but that I won't immediately repeat the number I just rolled. (so if the CO roll was a 6, I don't expect another 6 on the next roll--hence, no Odds) (Also, I only added $10 to the 4/10 as an afterthought because I hate to hit those numbers and not get anything for it.)

Next, if I roll an Inside number (let's say the 8) I take the winnings and pull down that single place bet ($35 + 30) and make the 5 and 9 $50 each (65 - 20 - 20 leaves me $25). THEN I make the Odds bet $50 (using the remaining $25 and adding $25 from my rack. (not expecting the 8 to repeat immediately). When this system is ideal, I'll hit two paying Inside numbers first before a 4 or 10 or the Red, and it pays $95-105. Then I regress to $44 Inside or $54 Across w/a PL Odds bet of $10 and take and/or press from there. (I don't pull the Place bets down after the regression.)

When it doesn't work "Great", I'll hit the 4 or 10 before I hit two Inside numbers. Since they only pay $18, and I don't expect a repeater, I'll pull down the 4/10 bets (the sister just to build money to $38 [$18 +10 +10]) toss in $2 and press the 5/9 to $50 each. One more hit on any Inside number, and I regress as described above, figuring that the "sting" of random occurence has inflicted a cheaper $18 win on my scheme--and that I shouldn't temp fate and play for a third Place number hit on an Inside wager. In this case, the minimum I'd win would be $53 ($18 for the 4 or 10, and $35 for a $30 bet on the 6/8).

My betting scheme was wargamed at home using $120 as my base (~$150 really when adding Odds after the third roll is considered)--90 Inside, $10 each on the 4/10 (making $110) plus $10 PL.

To my question... I read that a $10 bet on the 4/10 gives up "too much" House edge. (I don't really understand what that means but I accept that it "costs" me money not to have bet at least the single-vig limit bet.) In a discussion about establishing a betting scheme in order to calculate a session buy-in, the subject of betting Across with all the Place bets equal (in my mind) came up--that the 4 and 10 bets were the same amount as the 5/9, namely, at least $25 (that's an indirect recommendation I gleaned from the author's advice). (My $10 "Corners" bets seem to baffle the dealers, and I've never seen other $25/30 Place bettors skimp on the corners, so I wonder if I'm "doing it" wrong...)

I'm not totally against a $150 Across scheme (that would allow the 4/10 as $30 bets when necessary), but it changes the PSO recovery rate, I think.

Does it make more sense to increase the 4/10 bet and thereby force me to increase my betting tolerance just because house vig skews the payoff (and my weak return on a $10 4/10) distort my ISR returns so much?

Man I hope I worded that right...

Thank you, Guys!

[heavy]

AGHHH!

So if the $30 Eight hits and pays you $35 you take it down and press the Five and Nine to $50 each???

The late great Sam Grafstein had a phrase I live by to this day. "You only back a winning horse."

So let's say the point is established on the Four and the first number out the gate after the point is established is the Eight. This is just like a horse race. The first pony out the gate is the Eight. Which horse do you think has the best chance of winning the race? The one out the gate first. So if you could put MORE money on one horse AFTER the horses had left the gate - WHICH horse would you bet more money on? The horse named EIGHT. So Press the damn Eight - not the Five or Nine, which are nags still dicking around in the gate, trying to buck their jockeys off. If you MUST press some other number press the Eight's stall mate - the Six. Drop $1 and Press the Six and Eight to $48 each. Next hit pays what? If you know your Sevens Times Table you already have it figured out. Six eights is forty-eight. Eight times seven is fifty-six. Now you have OPTIONS. My suggestion? If this is a randy take that shit down. You have $56 plus $35 profit in the rack. $91. Wait for the next shooter. Bit if you want more action and it's a $10 game you can toss out $44 inside or $24 on the Six and Eight and go up and out from there and still have a profit in the rack. Don't be in such a hurry to get a lot of action on the table. Get past four rolls first. Then nine rolls. Then rock 'n roll.

[dork]

Hmmm. A lot to consider; but I don't usually bullfrog--though if I don't SO, most times I'll roll something Inside.
I haven't surveyed BT regularly to calculate my repeaters, but usually if I hit 2 Place numbers before the regression, it's more likely that they'll be Inside non-repeaters; that's why after the first hit I'll boost the "other three"-- the 5/9 and 6 [Odds] (in the case of 8 as the first pay off). I certainly favor stacking the 6/8 after the regression, just not after the first payoff. I'ma have to look over my records. I recall thinking my sig number is 5... but not in a 2-hit payoff and ISR scheme. (that's why, after the regression, my parlay on the 5 is usually 10-24-60-140; I'm hopin' for regressing to 24 after the 4th payoff--gnat balls--sometimes I regress at 60's payoff to 24 )

Thanks, Heavy!

[220Inside]

Besides Heavy's comments on the merits of betting into numbers that haven't been tossed yet at the expense of ones that have hit, I've never understood the rationale that many people seem to have of placing a number that is established as a point rather than using those same funds as a free odds bet. You're just giving money up to the house in the event that the point is made for no good reason. Why make a $30 place 6 bet instead of a $30 odds bet? You don't give up anything in terms of control over the bet when it's placed versus free odds. The only thing you're sacrificing is the payout to you if the number repeats and you only have it placed versus a free odds bet. But even worse is that if you don't have enough confidence in your shot to "expect the number to repeat", which is basically the premise of your betting strategy, why bet the 6 at all and put that additional money at risk?

Every hand is different and I'm always looking for a dominant number to bet into. If I'm tossing my best inside set, one hand might wind up dominant in 6's while the next hand might be dominant in 8's. You never really know until the hand starts to develop. But I'm always looking to see what numbers I start tossing at the start of the hand to see which ones might be dominant and those are the ones I want my money on.

[dork]

Hey Guys,

I don't mean to sound combative or argumentative; my words here are purely motivated only by the urge to learn how to "think right"...

My objection to the idea of pressing a bet anticipating that I'll repeat is, I don't show a tendency to bullfrog (repeat immediately) ANY number when tossing the dice either in practice (by my BoneTracker log) nor in play--except when I set for the 7/11 on the CO and toss repeat Reds. I think the most I've ever tossed on the CO is three consecutive; I've never tossed enough Reds consecutively to anticipate them enough to bet them, though... which brings me to my initial reaction to both your versions of advice for my next bet after a Place Bet payoff--that I should bet on the number that just hit.

This'll sound combative as hell, and I don't mean it that way, only as maybe an example of "contrary logic":

In essence, Heavy's advice echoes the same sentiment that you expressed so well, 220--"But even worse is that if you don't have enough confidence in your shot to "expect the number to repeat", which is basically the premise of your betting strategy, why bet the 6 at all and put that additional money at risk?"

To answer the second question first, 220, I'll not bet the PL Odds after the CO because I don't usually bullfrog. I'll bet the 6 as Odds with the money I take down from the 8 because I don't expect the 8 to repeat, but I do expect an(y) other Inside number. Statistically, that's just more of a common occurance for me than repeating consecutively. And this is only just a little less of an occurence when the Point is a 5/9... though with my toss, betting a bullfrog 5 might have a slightly better chance than even a 6/8 bullfrog.

But to your question--(if you don't have enough confidence in your shot to "expect the number to repeat",) "if you're both convinced that it's the best betting advice-- to add to the number you just hit, why not Hop that number? Do you do that? I don't ever; I don't have enough faith to "seek" that kind of result with a monetary conviction. What percentage of the time, when you have the dice, do you Hop a number you just tossed? If you do, why don't you do it on every toss? This wass my initial reaction to your advice--I don't know anyone who Hops a number on every toss; and I think that example of omission leans as a validation toward my betting scheme (for me). The contrary "me, I don't Hop" is my testimony that I don't have that confidence. I'm not looking for "action", I'm just trying to cover the numbers I think I'll hit on the next single toss.

My ISR betting scheme is to bet that I will generally hit any two Inside numbers before the Red; not that I will immediately repeat an Inside number consecutively immediately twice. I DO expect to repetively hit Inside numbers, but I bet that expectation after the regression--as I said, I'll usually run a full parlay on the 5 at least 2x before I collect anything on it (because most of the time, 5 is my signature number) while I usually run an "up one unit" on everything else--though I have more commonly lately run the 18-30-42-90 (and even 180) press on the 6/8s even with my customized 5 parlay running. But that's all with House money; I don't have the confidence when I'm using my own money to bet that I will repeat a number before the short-toss limitations of an ISR.

++++++++++++

Lastly, if I may, I think we got sidetracked from my original intended question:

I generally run 90 Inside with $10 each on the 4/10. But I read that a $10 bet on the 4/10 gives up "too much" to a House edge (the vig).

Does it make more sense to increase the 4/10 bet and thereby force me to increase my betting tolerance just because house vig skews the payoff (and my weak return on a $10 4/10) distort my ISR returns so much? Again, I hope my question is worded correctly.

Thanks very much, Gents! Respectfully, Brian

[heavy]

Okay, I missed the part about the Five being your dominant number. If you've proved that out in BoneTracker and those results transfer to your local tables then by all means, press to the Five if that's what you want to do. Ultimately, each of us has to decide exactly what sort of betting strategy we're going to adopt. I can tell you that I've compared (I'll say hundreds but it's probably more like thousands) of betting strategies over my lifetime and there are two type I've found that work best - depending on which approach I want to take. If I want frequent small wins and very few losses - Start with a bet that's large enough to allow me to make an initial steep regression after a couple of hits - then play an up and out progression from there, taking a couple of hits, then pressing, then taking a couple of more, then pressing up to a second regression point. Regress again, but not as deep as before. Then press more aggressively - every other hit - until the ugly number shows up.

Then there's my current play, which rarely includes a regression but has me more selective about who I bet on. I incorporate more Don't play than I used to as well as more hybrid play. But when I play the Right side I play it with my big pair on, and I'm not talking about the Six and Eight. I bet bigger and I press more aggressively with Power Presses included at several steps. I press every other hit and my goal is to get my bets up to table max and collect $7000 - $10,000 on every hit thereafter. I want to win life changing money. That's the goal.

There is, of course, middle ground in between where you can play. I might play some of that some day if I live long enough. Who knows? Right now I'm kind of enjoying what I'm doing. And I haven't gotten hurt too bad so far, because one big win makes up for a whole lot of wrong.

Not the kind of strategy I'd recommend for everyone, but ain't we got fun?

[220Inside]

It seems like there were a couple of points that weren't immediately obvious in the original post. I interpreted that "$30 each on all the Inside Place numbers, and $10 each on the 4 and/or 10, with no Odds on the PL to start" to mean $120 inside, including the point, $10 4 and 10 for a total of $140. No PL odds, no matter what the number was. I apologize for misinterpreting what the original bet was.

I'm not sure what the set you're using is optimized for but my take on this is that you're putting too much emphasis on what the result of the next toss will be. Every shot is not a sniping shot that you can call on demand. That's not what DI is about. I use a set optimized for inside numbers, so those are what I focus my betting on. On any given hand or toss, I don't know what number will be dominant or what my next toss will be. I let the hand dictate that. But I am confident that my tosses will be on inside numbers more often than what the generic house edge says that they should be, provided that I'm using a set that Bone Tracker has told me gives me my greatest edge on that group of numbers. I stay off the 4 and 10 until after I have recouped my initial inside bets and am in a profit position, or if I start seeing signs of those numbers early in the hand. I don't rush to get spread out across all the numbers and focus on the ones that my BT set is optimized for. I don't really keep track of my propensity to bullfrog numbers and BT doesn't really keep track of that metric either.

Since you also focus on inside numbers to start, with token bets on the 4 and 10, what I might do in the example provided would be to not bet the 4 and 10 to start and instead direct that $20 towards a $30 bet on the 6.

As for your question about house edge, as DI's I don't care about that very much. If you were to listen to another competing 3 letter DI outfit, you would never bet the 5 or 9 because of the 5% house edge on those numbers. The whole notion of DI and using a tool like Bone Tracker is to shift the edge in your favor on a given number or group of numbers.

But there are many different ways to skin the betting cat. Your betting strategy doesn't sound bad at all and it seems to work for you.

[coaster]

Hiya dork,
I totally agree with 220 about the house edge. I use BT not only to find my best SRR set group but to find the sets within that group that will best accomplish what I am trying to do. That for me is to toss as many inside numbers each hand that I can. Since I have found the set within my best group that shows an abundance of inside numbers I bet them. After quite a few practice shots and the analysis I have put into BT. I trust BT because it has proven to me it works.

The betting possibilities are unlimited so it’s just a matter of finding what you are comfortable with and doing it. A couple of months ago I went back and reread a lot of betting strategies here on the forum. I tried a few that I thought might be for me during practice and for the last few weeks have been having great success with one. I’m not a large player so I was looking for something that would get my money out of a hand quickly without a huge regression. I wanted something that I could have profit in a low number of hits and still have the opportunity to score nice wins on the bigger hands. Also I wanted it to be something that gave me a chance to recover pretty easily from the pso or ppso.

If it’s been a while since you looked at any here, go back and read about Wizzard’s Golden Double Whammy. I’ve been basically using it as he describes with very few tweaks. It’s a powerful play for an inside shooter.
Coaster

[heavy]

I like the "Golden Double Whammy" idea myself. It's pretty much the foundation of my Green Chip Goldmine and Black Chip Bonanza plays. Piggyback the two together and you have a very strong strategy. You can stop at either step and collect as many green or black chips as you wish, depending on how long your hand is. Just get your bets paid for first. Figure THAT part out and you have one hell of a play.

[Tgold]

Good discussion and comments.

The OP (Dork) up above:
"...but usually if I hit 2 Place numbers before the regression, it's more likely that they'll be Inside non-repeaters; that's why after the first hit I'll boost the "other three"-- the 5/9 and 6 [Odds] (in the case of 8 as the first pay off)...."

In my opinion whatever we choose to do(press hit# or nonhit#) its important to be consistent. Within a few hundred events the difference may be minimal. However, in the short term(The session in front of us right now) the difference could have a huge affect on ROI.

For me personally I prefer to make bet selection as well as press/regress decisions "outcomes based". Although I may have a general plan in mind from previous research/roll data.
Re: repeaters--I like to give a little credence to something that has hit vs giving equal merit to hit#s and nonhit#s. If it hasnt shown it doesnt exist(yet).

Same opinion on the amount of the bet. For example, If a gamer has predetermined to wager $180 ($60 each) on three place bets (e.g., 5,6,8) and 8 was my signature number or lets say the (8) hits first. I would be more inclined to wager $66 on the (8) and make one of the other two (nonhit#s) look like $54 or $55. It doesnt change H.E. any and one can always switch back with equi-sized bets.
To my thinking "bet mobility" with Place bets is sometimes undervalued.

Same with a press regime with lets say $60 each on 5,6,8--If the (8) hit first I would be more inclined to press only the (8) to $132 and nothing on the other two wagers VS
adding approximately $24 to all three wagers.
I prefer to press what is hitting and after a few rolls and lets say 2 of 3 initial bets hit I may move that one nonhit wager to another number that has hit(that I didnt initially have covered), lets say the (9) or whatever.
Regardless if one is pressing or regressing (or selecting a bet) it is my belief we should make our decisions "outcomes based" instead of making our decisions based on ones desires(What we want to happen).


Heavys' statement above: "...The late great Sam Grafstein had a phrase I live by to this day. "You only back a winning horse." ..."


I agree. That reminds me of the following gambling and investing quote:

“The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.” — Damon Runyon


Yes Coaster, I like Wizzards "Golden double whammy" . I also liked some of Wizzards' concepts such as buyin for say 10 tickets (2200=10tickets@220 per) and bet through each ticket in our session and then make a decision to stay or leave the table,...etc.


Just my opinions and 2c.


Thanks for reading, Tgold

[heavy]

One more thing . . . If I, personally, were going to bet $130 action - I would bet $120 action on Even Numbers in a casino where I could Buy the Four and Ten for $30 each and pay a $1 commission on the win. That gets the house edge down near the same as that of the Six and Eight, so I'm on pretty much the lowest house edge bets in the casino short of the Free Odds bet, which I'm not too worried about in this scenario. As for the extra $10? I'll ask for $10 in white chips and use it to pay commissions and make a few dealer hardway bets.

[dork]

Hi Guys!

Thanks for all your responses on this and my other posts. I haven't been ignoring the forum, I just couldn't get in. I've asked Heavy at least 4x before to fix the lock on my IP address (and he has, every time) but this time when I got the lockout message ("you've been permanently banned") I just decided not to bother him yet again when it's plain now that the problem lies within my NORD VPN set up somewhere. Anyway, it relinquished today and whatever IP problem was posed to the forum's security software is gone now. (Not to say I won't "disappear" again sometime without warning.) Sooo.. I'm back again.

What's "Wizzard’s Golden Double Whammy"? My Google-fu only brings "Wizard of Odds" and "double Whammy" references.

I played on a $15 table for the very first time--out of necessity today and not only survived with a base $66 Inside scheme but won (big) using all ya'll's betting strategies! A fairly choppy table, I held my own for one time around the table until I got the dice the second time and then (never having bet Across ever, today) made good money with the more solid betting approach. AND I stayed to see if there was more profit on the table, but 4 shooters later I was down that skimmed "$100" and colored up. The only time I bet the 4/10 was after I'd CO with a 10 and made it (w/$25 Odds) and then on the next point established, I bet $25 on the 10, and collected twice (same bet, up to 50, and it died there). I never put $$ on the 4--like ya'll have taught me here in this thread--it never appeared but once during my whole hand.

Thanks to All !!

[220Inside]

Don't use Google to try and find it. Use the board search feature for golden double whammy and it will jump right out at you.

Sometimes Google isn't your friend...

[dork]

Thanks a second time! Found it!

[dork]

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