40/16/7/3/1.2/.5 - Six Number Every Player Should Know

[barigh]

I am posting in response to Heavy's article by the same title in the March 2025 newsletter. I am relatively new to Axis Power Craps and I am impressed by the length and substance of articles that Heavy is writing in his monthly newsletters. Anyway, these set of stats on the probability of making successive points really been bothering me. I have searched the referenced Michael Shackleford's Youtube videos on craps math and have not found a statement on probability of making successive points. Heavy, please provide the reference where you got these numbers. While we wait for that, I assume these percentages are true and consider why would I ever bet right side after a shooter makes first point? But first the context--I know this is a DI site, but I am a random roller and I have never played with anyone who appeared anything but random -- I play at Black Hawk in Colorado. A week ago I was playing and had a decent roll - rolling all the numbers and collecting on the bonus bets. I forget whether I had made 1 or 2 points. I did have the inside numbers pressed up higher than my usual comfort level. On the next Come Out I set the point, then proceeded to PSO. Ouch. I now realize that I should never leave so much money on the table after 1 or 2 passes have been made. I need to bring the bets down to the minimum and proceed to press or collect just as I had done while shooting for the first point. If I could get away from the emotional high after 2 points have been made then what I need to do is move to the DP and DC since the math says only a 7% chance of shooter making a 3rd point. Feels like a tough betting strategy to implement, given the recent joy of winning points.

[Tgold]

Hi barigh. Good post.

"...A week ago I was playing and had a decent roll - rolling all the numbers and collecting on the bonus bets..."

Congrats on the nice hand.

"... I am impressed by the length and substance of articles that Heavy is writing in his monthly newsletters..."

I concur. I (like many on the forum) skim through the monthly newsletter as well as the new posts/archive subforum every 3-4 nights. I always seem to find a beneficial thought or idea.

"40/16/7/3/1.2/.5 - Six Number Every Player Should Know"

These figures are indeed correct and though rounded off for simplicity are close enough to serve our purpose. The first two (40/16) are very important IMO.
Reminder that (40.6) is conditional and after the point is established. Recall the PassLine has an 8/36 on that Comeout for a winner(7,11) before the pt is established.

Keep on winning,

[DarthNater]

While I presume they are on Shackleford's site, these numbers best known to me from years ago when the Mad Professor put out his famed "Dodging Bullets as a Darksider - Part 1" on the original Dicesetter.com citing Shackleford and Krigman.

In our seminar's I've called it the Dark Side Holy Grail, as those percentages are the foundation for his Choppy Table - Short Leash aka CT-SL approach to the Darkside. When he was active writer, we PM-ed several times on the nuances of CT-SL, especially as it involved hits on the 2 & 3 for resetting the progression. While I can talk hours about it (and usually we hit it at every seminar), you can google it and read to your hearts content; plus there's tons of discussion here as Heavy has been really committed to keeping all this information on tap.

It's very educational and as Heavy says if you're not playing the Darkside, you're only playing half the game.

DN8R

PS As a reminder these numbers are based on random rollers, we DIs know our mileage will vary.......

[realtime]

I scanned through the wizardofodds.com website (Shackleford's site) this afternoon and found where he explains the 40 calculation

He footnotes that further discussions for additional passes made and those percentages were discussed in a thread on his forum site wizardofvegas.com.

I did a quick search there and while I didn't spend much time reading thru the material I'm guessing it is in there somewhere.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questio ... -in-craps/

Have to read thru entire thread to get eventual answer.

[Tgold]

Thx @realtime for hunting down that info. One will find the long-term data for craps works out to just about what it suppose to do. However, IMO, there is always a bias going on. Understanding these turning points/ rebalancing act is critical in my opinion.

re: DarthNaters' comments on Mad Profs 5-tier CTSL "dodging bullets" approach.
I agree DN that can often be an AP tool. Sometimes it can also be used on the Do side. Of course it would no longer be called thew CTSL (Dodging bullets as a darksider) as MP originally intended.
Some times one can almost "Feel-The-Force" as the dice are trying to hunt down(i.e., track down) a certain number. Its almost as if the dice are collaborating in the bowl saying: "Oh Sheeet--we can not give these guys any more wins IAR(In-A-Row)".


Good thread barigh. Thx for comments/continued winning to all, tg

[kumar]

Barigh,
I think your question is on a good roll when should one regress?
It is a matter of playing style
How risk averse are you?
Heavy and myself play the 4/10 very aggressively and we do not regress the bets on the 4/10
I also play the Donts but I am not aggressive on the Donts like some of the players on this forum are
I make 8,3 day trips to the casino each year. My goal is to finish ahead each year. If I catch a good run on the 4/10 and capitalize on it like it did on my last trip I am set for the year
There is a very very elderly gentlemen who only plays Crap less. He buys in for $10k and shoots from stick right .He plays extremely small on other shooters but spreads roughly $1200 across when he is shooting. Right in the middle of a good roll by him he stops play, brings all his bets down, cashes out, leaves the pass-line bet as a dealer tip and walks away. He has done it to me 4 times in the last 6 months. So I finally asked him what gives
He smiled and said hope you made money on my roll; do you think a roll lasts for ever? I am very old and get tired shooting
I did not correlate his actions with the 6 numbers every player should know but will do that next time and post.
So here you go ,different styles, you choose

[heavy]

Why do you think the Fire Bet pays $1000 to $1 and is paid out so seldom that it carries a house edge in excess of 20%? Because almost no one ever hits the Fire Bet making six passes on six different points - which admittedly is more difficult that making six passes, since Come Out Sevens and Elevens count as passes. The same reason so many of us used to Lay the sixth point on the Fire Bet - even if we didn't have a bet ON the Fire Bet.

Anyway, the above answers are correct. They came from MP's Dodging Bullets on the Dark Side Series years ago, which we quote heavily in the APC seminars when we delve into the Dark Side, and MP got those numbers from Michael Shackleford and Alan Krigman, both of whom are quite adept at math. Surely all of you know that Shackleford, known as the Wizard of Odds, is an actuary who does casino math for casinos, helping them prove out their new games to make sure they'll be profitable for them - among other things. Krigman was the Editor and Publisher of the Winning Ways newsletter, and a syndicated gaming author who was published widely until his death in 2013. His articles focused primarily on mathematics, gambling probability, and statistics, so there you go.

[barigh]

Kumar is correct that my real question is "when should I regress on a good roll?" I realize that we are looking at a paradox. For example, let's say I have made 2 points and have now set the new point on 5 on the come out roll. What are the odds that I will hit that 5? 40%. You all have always insisted that the dice have no memory -- they don't know that I made the 2 previous points, and the odds of me making a 3rd point in a row is 7% according to the "Six Numbers Every Player Should Know". So yes, my hitting that 5 is simply 40%. But if I do hit it, then I will be only 1 of 7 shooters out of a 100 to do it. I believe (hope) I will adjust my playing style to protect my meager bank roll after 2 hits, maybe regress all bets to a minimum, maybe just bet 6 & 8 until the shooter proves he is not going to PSO.
Some of the replies to my original posting have mentioned the "Choppy Table - Short Leash aka CT-SL". I have not been able to find an explanation of this strategy online. Can anyone point me to a reference where I can study it?

[barigh]

I did finally find the explanation of the "Choppy Table-Short Leash" method at https://dicesetter.com/dodging-bullets- ... er-part-1/

[midgetcoach]

What if you were planning on playing this on the next shooter. Place a pass line hedged with a Don't pass bet. Place a $1. on the 12 and play the FireBet for $1. After a decision on the first point then go to "Choppy Table-Short Leash. I think the Fire Bet protects you if the shooter keeps making points?

[DarthNater]

What if you were planning on playing this on the next shooter. Place a pass line hedged with a Don't pass bet. Place a $1. on the 12 and play the FireBet for $1. After a decision on the first point then go to "Choppy Table-Short Leash. I think the Fire Bet protects you if the shooter keeps making points?

Midgetcoach. The problem with that play is the shooter has to make four different points in order to get a Fire Bet cash. If they make the same 2-3 points repeatedly, you get nothing. Plus look closely at the CT-SL play - its for a choppy to cold table, which yeah I guess as a hedge, but realistically if you think the table is trending cold, then play it that way; and vice versa. I never like a strategy that requires a longshot to happen on a frequent basis. Getting all six for the 1000 to 1 payout is a rarity, even for DIs; plus the majority of 6 hitters I've seen actually took 8 points or more, so I'd work thru the tactics a bit more.

I've experimented a lot with the CT-SL progressions, plus had the opportunity to see others play alternative martingale-like chases on the DP, most of them pucker up once they eclipse the $500+ level. I've seen a fellow chase DPs to the > $2600 level and you can't begin to describe his jubilation for a comeout 3.

Bottom line for me its about refining the DP plays to 3-4 increments as paraphrasing Heavy in this months newsletter, there's a point where betting $600-700 to net a $50-60 profit becomes worse than a grind. That said, I'd throw a buck on the Fire, but not rely on it for effecting any strategy I'm playing in parallel, good luck, DN8R

[memo]

Kumar is correct that my real question is "when should I regress on a good roll?"

Hey Barigh,

Good thread and discussion. I hope you got the answers about choppy table short leash...

As for your question, 'when should I regress?'
The paradox really is that although we know all these numbers (40/16/7/3..etc. Or each hand is 8.26 rolls..mean is 3. yada, yada) No one can accurately predict what the next number will be. We influence, we do not control the dice.
So unless you are following a rigid system, which many of us here do not advise....The regression is based entirely on you.

It has to do with several factors... Your bank roll, your experience, and feel for what is going on at the table. But mostly, your risk tolerance..
For instance..Lets say that you have the dice, it is a long roll, and my four is pressed up to 5k, table max. The next four is worth 10k, or a seven makes the 5k go to zero. No one can predict what the roll will be. I cannot speak for Heavy or Kumar, however I believe it to be similar to my evaluation. I would be looking at your composure. Is your hand shaking. How did the last toss look...Did they travel together and land gently traveling to the back wall, or did one of them go shooting off to the opposite side of the table. Was there any interruption in the flow of the game.

One caveat..If my bet is at 5k, I have made 5k already and that reduces my risk aversion....Also...I have never hit a table max bet (and I want to) So, that factor will enter the equation. (sad but true )

You need to develop your own equation. An equation that will change and develop as you expand your confidence and experience, bank roll, risk aversion, etc. Judging by what you have written, in the same number of hits, you would be somewhere in the 200 dollar level. And that is OK...Providing that you continued to bet at some level, you would have made plenty of profit.

Bottom line....It is never a bad thing to take money off the table, however leaving a bet up when you do not feel it, for any reason...If that bet falls, you will feel regret.
You would probably feel remorse at losing the 200 dollar bet I mentioned above and alter your play because of it...At the same time, I would have been disappointed and shrugged it off knowing my rack had gained handsomely during the hand, and after all, that is the game we love and play.

You are in the right place to learn all this stuff...

Memo

[heavy]

Also...I have never hit a table max bet (and I want to) So, that factor will enter the equation. (sad but true )

ONE more reason you should sign on for one of my Craps Cruises on Royal Caribbean, where the table max is $500. You could hit that sucker once a day on one number or another.

Heck, I've hit the $1000 max bet at Gold Coast a couple of times. Same for the $500 max bet (then) at the Four Queens. And the whopping $300 max bet on MSC cruises, where I hit the Four at a $300 max bet five times. LOL. Imagine if I'd been on a real craps game. But if your dream is to hit table max - find a table with a low table max and make your dreams come true. LOL.

[memo]

Also...I have never hit a table max bet (and I want to) So, that factor will enter the equation. (sad but true )

ONE more reason you should sign on for one of my Craps Cruises on Royal Caribbean, where the table max is $500. You could hit that sucker once a day on one number or another.

Heck, I've hit the $1000 max bet at Gold Coast a couple of times. Same for the $500 max bet (then) at the Four Queens. And the whopping $300 max bet on MSC cruises, where I hit the Four at a $300 max bet five times. LOL. Imagine if I'd been on a real craps game. But if your dream is to hit table max - find a table with a low table max and make your dreams come true. LOL.

Me thinks I must express myself more clearly!
Footnote:
In this instance, max bet equals 5K

Really? Max bet 300, 500??
Were you playing bubble craps?

Memo

[DarthNater]

Memo,
Super reply to Barigh, couldn't have said it any better!!

Long time no see, Memo; I know you've been close to that table max, some day, baby!

Best, DN8R

[Finisher7619]

Question is there any math about hitting the same point several times ? I just saw a roll the other day were the point of 8 was hit 3 times during one turn of dice .Some long rolls never get close to the fire bet win for that 6th .

[heavy]

I'll make this easy on myself by quoting "Seattle" from The Wizard of Odds" site:

There are 24 rolls that result in establishing a point: 4 & 10 will happen 3 times each, 5 & 9 will happen 4 times each, and 6 & 8 will happen 5 times each.

The odds of establishing a specific point number are the number of times it occurs out of 24. Then the odds of making the point are based on hitting the point before the seven, so you only have to consider the rolls where the point hits or the seven hits: 3 out of 9 for the 4 & 10, 4 out 10 for the 5 & 9, and 5 out of 11 for the 6 & 8.

For the odds of establishing and making a specific point you multiply. For your example of the 6, this is 5/24 * 5/11 = .095 (9.5%). To find the odds of n(umber) occurrences, multiply this n times, or (5/24 * 5/11)^n. To establish and make the 6 twice this is .009

Clear enough to me. Hopefully you get it. The odds of setting and making the Six and the point twice back to back is .009, or .9%.