Horn Bet Progression

[Bones]

This past Friday I stopped by the IP in Biloxi to redeem my whopping $10 in free play chips coupon. The $5. table was packed but the $10 dollar table was wide open with one other shooter straight out and two fellows and a girl standing at sl making a pretty nice size horn Bet. They had sheets of paper with lots of typed numbers written down. The straight out shooter sevened out and the dice passed to me.

I didn't pay much attention to the horn folks but they had Black chip action on the Horn. I've been using the 3v set and usually the absence of crap numbers although i do occasionally toss a 2 n 12.

I toss a 6 on the comeout roll and am thinking , "poor bastards, there gonna lose their ass" They go back up on the black chip action on the horn, looking intensely at their notes.

I toss the dice and BAM snake eyes, 1 1 staring up at the ceiling. The horn people don't blink an eye, I even quipped, "Thought I might hear some cheering over there" They looked like Mt Rushmore, I was wanting the dice back and didn't pay attention to exactly how much they had been paid but there were purple chips in there.

They went back up with green chip action, maybe two hundred. Bam , box cars 6 6. Nothing, I mean nothing, they collected the chips and left, not cashing in despite The Box beggin to color em in. They left like thieves in the night, straight out the door, no high fives , nothin. Didn't even go to the cage. Never saw anything like it.

They were obviously playing some kind of progression, was wondering if anybody had ever seen a horn progression. Besides, see a horn bet a horn, lol.

I didn't have a very long roll but I did manage to make the tall portion of all tall small, with $3 2 $3. With HEavys words ringing in my ears "Get in Get Up and Get Out" Headed over to the cage to cash in Gave the cashier my chips and my coupon, showed my players card and ID. He takes my chips and I leave so very happy i made part of the All tall small.

As i am pulling out of the garage I realize he never gave me my $10 free play chips.

Oh the Humanity

Welcome to my World

B Bones

[Mad Professor]

Hi Bobby,

A long time back, Irishsetter and Maddog (if I recall correctly) came up with a team-play Horn Progression that showed a tremendous amount of promise.

Perhaps either of them could speak to that one. If not, I can dig out my notes and try to reframe it as accurately as possible.

MP

[hinduman]

Bobby,
Glad to hear of your win. Just want to let folks know that you tweaked my shot so long ago it seems! But you know, I've used what you taught me to increase my skill and wins at the tables over that time. Can't tell if anything else helped me but I know you did. Thanks again and keep 'em straight!!!

Hinduman

[Ahigh]

time travelers. be careful not to engage them as it can disrupt the space-time continuum.

they had to leave as you made too many changes to your performance and they weren't able to know what roll was next.

[heavy]

No doubt Irish and Maddog are busy with the holidays. I recall the weekend we were working on that progression. It was at one of the Crapsfest deals we did together with Dice Coach way back in the day. Based on using the straight sixes set, it was a negative progression but I don't recall the exact structure. I do know it worked very well in Beau's craps pit.

[Maddog]

Yeah, holidays and work is moving offices so I'm a bit away from the boards... but Heavy's memory is correct about when we messed with the Horn progression. Irish and I spent some time on it after the seminar with a few additional tweaks to the bets in the progression. I no longer remember the exact make up of the play. What I'm remembering is that if we tossed at least one Horn number within 25 rolls we broke even or something like that. It was a negative progression and got a little hairy at the upper end. If I remember, we felt it required at least a team of two, with one running the betting progression and the other shooting. We felt that keeping track of the betting progression was too much a burden on the shooter. If I recall correctly, we sort of abandoned the idea due to the extreme volatility of the play. Also it seemed like you almost need an empty table to play so that you can get the dice back and continue the progression in the many situations where you seven-out before getting the hits. I'll have to dig around and see if I can find the spreadsheet that had the progression steps.

[Bones]

It would be interesting to see the horn progression, I'm sure the folks I saw at the table were feeling the Volatility realllly well. They weren't tossing, just looking at their notes. I still just can't get over the lack of any Reaction. I'd been screaming like a little girl, lol.

[Guzzzzier]

I saw an interesting Horn Progression a week ago: a guy would bet on every throw a $40 horn, if it won he would press it to four quarters. If that won he would go up to $200. If he lost he would go back to the $40. The dealers had trouble figuring out the exact payouts which slowed down the table to a crawl. He ended up winning a few big hits when craps came in streaks. I can't imagine the bankroll needed to do this and also do $25 pass line betting with double odds. Any estimates out there ?

Guzzzz

[sharkbyte]

20-Roll Proposed Horn Progression

[tr][td][b] Units 2/12 [/b][/td][td][b] Units 3/11 [/b][/td][td][b] Units Roll Bet [/b][/td][td][b] Total Units Bet [/b][/td][td] [/td][td][b] Win 2/12 [/b][/td][td][b] Win 3/11 [/b][/td][/tr] [tr][td] 1 [/td][td] 1 [/td][td] 4 [/td][td] 4 [/td][td] [/td][td] 26 [/td][td] 11 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 1 [/td][td] 1 [/td][td] 4 [/td][td] 8 [/td][td] [/td][td] 22 [/td][td] 7 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 1 [/td][td] 1 [/td][td] 4 [/td][td] 12 [/td][td] [/td][td] 18 [/td][td] 3 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 1 [/td][td] 2 [/td][td] 6 [/td][td] 18 [/td][td] [/td][td] 12 [/td][td] 12 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 1 [/td][td] 2 [/td][td] 6 [/td][td] 24 [/td][td] [/td][td] 6 [/td][td] 6 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 2 [/td][td] 3 [/td][td] 10 [/td][td] 34 [/td][td] [/td][td] 26 [/td][td] 11 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 2 [/td][td] 4 [/td][td] 12 [/td][td] 46 [/td][td] [/td][td] 14 [/td][td] 14 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 3 [/td][td] 5 [/td][td] 16 [/td][td] 62 [/td][td] [/td][td] 28 [/td][td] 13 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 3 [/td][td] 6 [/td][td] 18 [/td][td] 80 [/td][td] [/td][td] 10 [/td][td] 10 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 4 [/td][td] 8 [/td][td] 24 [/td][td] 104 [/td][td] [/td][td] 16 [/td][td] 16 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 5 [/td][td] 10 [/td][td] 30 [/td][td] 134 [/td][td] [/td][td] 16 [/td][td] 16 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 7 [/td][td] 13 [/td][td] 40 [/td][td] 174 [/td][td] [/td][td] 36 [/td][td] 21 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 8 [/td][td] 16 [/td][td] 48 [/td][td] 222 [/td][td] [/td][td] 18 [/td][td] 18 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 10 [/td][td] 20 [/td][td] 60 [/td][td] 282 [/td][td] [/td][td] 18 [/td][td] 18 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 13 [/td][td] 26 [/td][td] 78 [/td][td] 360 [/td][td] [/td][td] 30 [/td][td] 30 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 16 [/td][td] 32 [/td][td] 96 [/td][td] 456 [/td][td] [/td][td] 24 [/td][td] 24 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 20 [/td][td] 40 [/td][td] 120 [/td][td] 576 [/td][td] [/td][td] 24 [/td][td] 24 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 25 [/td][td] 50 [/td][td] 150 [/td][td] 726 [/td][td] [/td][td] 24 [/td][td] 24 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 32 [/td][td] 64 [/td][td] 192 [/td][td] 918 [/td][td] [/td][td] 42 [/td][td] 42 [/td][/tr] [tr][td] 40 [/td][td] 80 [/td][td] 240 [/td][td] 1158 [/td][td] [/td][td] 42 [/td][td] 42 [/td][/tr]

[Mad Professor]

The random appearance-rate of Horn-numbers (2, 3, 11, and 12) mirror those of the 7...at 1-in-6 (16.67%).

Likewise, the predictive-chance of NOT seeing a Horn-number at the START of any given betting-series follows the same expectation-curve as the 7.

~So, there is an 83.3% chance that any one randomly-produced outcome will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 69.43% chance that any two consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 57.86% chance that any three consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 48.22% chance that any four consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 40.18% chance that any five consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 33.48% chance that any six consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 27.90% chance that any seven consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

However, and as always, you cannot make these cumulative-probability predictions once an outcome-series has started. Rather, it can only be made at the beginning of a given series and not during it.

So for example, if you observe that seven non-Horn outcomes have gone by; you cannot say that there is now a higher chance that a Horn-number will roll next. That error in logic would be part of a gambler's fallacy 'due-number' theory, which is wrong.

Again, cumulative-probability is only valid at the start of an outcome-sequence; and NOT during one that is already underway.

~There is a 6.48% (1-in-15) chance that any fifteen consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 2.60% (1-in-38) chance that any twenty consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 1.04% (1-in-96) chance that any twenty-five consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 0.421% (1-in-237) chance that any thirty consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 0.169% (1-in-592) chance that any thirty-five consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 0.0679% (1-in-1472) chance that any forty consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

~There is a 0.01097% (1-in-9115) chance that any fifty consecutive random outcomes will not be a Horn-number.

Thought you might like to know.


MP

[sharkbyte]

Thought you might like to know.

Oh, I know. I just offered this up for the thread.

For the first 1000 rolls, in Zuma, while you can expect a Horn every 6 rolls (on average), there were no less than 7 instances of it taking more than 20 rolls for a horn # to show. The longest being 33.

Using one of my practice sets - 125 rolls, I had a rough Horn rate of 4.3:1, and still had a 14-roll gap in that small sample... Now I might pursue looking at how the progression does, on a Horn-heavy set, but only going 10 steps. With a high enough win/loss percentage, it can still produce a positive result.

But then how does it stack up as the best bet for my skill level? (See, MP, I do pay attention. )