Free Odds - the Best Bet?

[Bearish]

The use of odds to reduce the house PC on your base wager is a false economy. The table below shows how randies will fare when using odds at various levels. As you can see, the house PC goes down as you increase the level of your odds bet, but, the amount of money you have at risk increases proportionately, eliminating the "advantage". The last column of the first table is the most telling. A pass line better who takes no odds will lose $.07 every time he makes a $5 pass line wager. The 100 times odds better will lose $.11 every time he makes a $5 pass line bet with 100x odds (a total wager of $505). One could argue that the more odds you take on your base wager, the more you'll lose, not to mention the incredible bankroll volatility you'd experience betting at such high odds levels.

My point with all this is the lower house edge a randy gets by taking odds is offset by having more money in action.

The figures in the following table compressed, so here's what each column represents:

Amount of line bet / Odds x multiple / Total $ of odds bet / Total $ bet / House PC on the total $ bet / Expected Loss of the total $ bet

5 0 0 5 -1.410% -$0.07
5 1 5 10 -0.848% -$0.08
5 2 10 15 -0.572% -$0.09
5 3 15 20 -0.471% -$0.09
5 5 25 30 -0.326% -$0.10
5 10 50 55 -0.184% -$0.10
5 20 100 105 -0.099% -$0.10
5 100 500 505 -0.021% -$0.11

Now, all that said, if you're a randy and you're going to bet at a level above a table minimum $5 base bet, then taking odds helps you, provided you adjust your total wager so it remains at roughly the same amount (noted in bold type). In other words, if you're a $500 bettor as in this example, odds are a good thing. The columns below are the same as in the table above.

500 0 0 500 -1.410% -$7.05
250 1 250 500 -0.848% -$4.24
125 3 375 500 -0.471% -$2.36
46 10 460 506 -0.184% -$0.93
24 20 480 504 -0.099% -$0.50
5 100 500 505 -0.021% -$0.11

I used bold type to emphasize that the discussion above is about random rollers.

If you are a DI with an advantage over the house, then you want to put as much money in action as you possibly can.

As a DI your biggest concerns should be:

How much will your advantage allow you to bet taking into account variance i.e., your risk of ruin?
How well do the casino(s) you play at tolerate your wins?

[heavy]

Free Odds! The BEST bet, the WORST bet, or JUST ANOTHER BANKROLL BLEEDER? Read the posts on this thread then give us your opinion. Is 100X odds wasted on you? Is it just an advertising gimmick? Who risks more in Free Odds - right side players are don't players? LOTS of questions there. Let's hear from you.

[London Shooter]

Best bet if used proportionately to your bankroll, but no doubt over bet by many who are aware it is the "best bet in the casino" but forget the casino has and endless supply of bullets with which to shoot at your bankroll.

Arrgy had a strange way of looking at things. The c/o part of the game cannot be just forgotten when talking about odds bets.

[acpa]

Does Cromwell on the Strip still have 100 times odds? There is seldom that I’ve seen anyone betting them the few times I’ve played, and it is not me. Noah

[mssthis1]

The odds are definitely the best best as long as you bet within your bankroll. That is the whole idea behind the "free" odds from the casinos point of view. They know that the more you overbet your bankroll the more likely that normal variance and volatility will be in the casinos favor.

[London Shooter]

Noah, I've only seen 100x odds used once at Cromwell. Guy was doing passline and put bets on $10 table with odds progression as 200/500/1000. He went bust very quick from a buyin of a few k.

[DanF]

It's the best bet. BUT, you need more then 5x and you need 10 times your bet for session roll and 20 session roll. Thus you need 10-20k at risk in a negative expectation game. There you go.

Is there ways to win without risking as much. Probably. But in the end you're still going to need a lot of luck.

[London Shooter]

.... or a lot of skill

[stratocasterman]

.... or a lot of skill

[Bankerdude80]

Eliot Jacobsen PhD writes in his e-book Introduction to Gaming Mathematics (2013), "However, in craps, in order to get high variance without taking “odds,” the player will have to play high house edge wagers. This is why odds are so popular in craps; odds are pure variance, nothing more. The house edge for all odds wagers in craps is 0.00%, the theoretical RTP is 100%. RTP or Return to Player is defined as (Total amount won) / (Total amount wagered). Over the long run, the player expects to break even on his odds wagers. Most casinos offer odds; some use it as a marketing tool, allowing up to 100 × times odds to be purchased. The primary purpose of offering odds is to allow the player to have the experience of volatility he wants at no additional cost to the player or casino."

Here's a link:
http://advancedadvantageplay.com/wp-con ... matics.pdf
or
https://www.888casino.com/blog/apheat/i ... athematics

Here's a puff piece on Jacobsen's cred:
https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/after- ... om-gaming/

[Bankerdude80]

My bad. I was responding to Heavy's bump post from 10/11. I didn't even thoroughly read DanF's post and Irish's response. I guess I came to the party late. To address Irish's above post, my attempt of a response for Player 1 versus Player 2 is:

Question 1: If 1000 decisions are rendered, who will have wagered more? (the pass line bettor is actually betting $11 versus $10 for the place bettor)
Player 1- $5 +$6 = $11 x 1000 = $11,000.00
Player 2- $10 x 1000 = $10,000.00
So player #1 bets more out of pocket.
Player 2 will get a higher comp rating, since most casinos exclude the odds portion of the bet when calculating the rate.

Question 2: Who will be likely be ahead more or behind less?
Player 1 will be likely be ahead more due to the payout advantage of the odds portion of the bet due to zero HA.
Player 1 would behind less for the same reason.

The thing to remember is the cost of the odds bet is zero. Whereas for the place bet, Player 2 is paying a cost that can be significant over time.

House Edge (HA)
Place bet on 6 or 8: [(5/11)×7 + (6/11)×(-6)]/6 = (-1/11)/6 = -1/66 ≈ -1.515%
Place bet on 5 or 9: [(4/10)×7 + (6/10)×(-5)]/5 = (-2/10)/5 = -1/25 = -4.000%
Place bet on 4 or 10: [(3/9)×9 + (6/9)×(-5)]/5 = (-3/9)/5 = -1/15 ≈ -6.667%

With a slight reduction in cost when buying the four and ten:
Buy bet on 4 or 10: [(3/9)×39 + (6/9)×(-21)]/21 = (-9/9)/21 = -1/21 ≈ -4.762%

Still, these are significant costs to Player #2 over 1000 decisions.

Question 3: Will they get to 1000 decisions at the same time?
Yes. 1000 decisions is 1000 decisions.

Question 4: Will player 1 "NEED" to wager 5 X or 10 X to benefit from the free odds?
No he will not. Player 1 benefits from whatever odds bet he makes.

Wouldn't both players experience the same variance since it would be measured over the course of the 1000 decisions?

I would also venture to guess that Player #3 who is betting just $10 PL is more at a disadvantage than either Player 1 or Player 2.

That was fun.

[mssthis1]

Bankerdude: The pass line bettor will reach 1000 decisions first because they WOCO and the place bettor has no action. At least that's the way I count a decision.

[Bankerdude80]

Ahh. My bad for overlooking that. Makes total sense now.

As far as wagering less, would that have to do with winning on PL naturals during come out and using those wins for the odds wager?

Aren't the net wagered amounts still pretty close, it's the out of pocket amounts that would differ significantly?

[mssthis1]

Using random dice as the baseline. The pass line bet will only be $5 the 33.3% of the time that a decision occurs because of a natural or horn number.

[London Shooter]

I'll throw the come-out curve ball into the mix. Now for player 1 the 1000 decisions need to be looked at differently as passline with single odds is a much different beast to placing the number.

[London Shooter]

Oops, I replied before realising there was another page of responses.

Looks Like the c/o aspect is now being considered.

[DanF]

It's the best bet. BUT, you need more then 5x and you need 10 times your bet for session roll and 20 session roll.

Fallacy. Show your math. If you're repeating some other person's nonsense. Show THEIR math.

5x:
5$ Pass with 25$ odds win 35$. Place bet 30 win 35$.

10x:
5$ pass with 50$ odds win 65$. Place bet 54 wins 63$.

Any increment is a multiplier thus the same math. You start dropping 1% HA on your bets at 10x for same investment.

[London Shooter]

But passline with odds is never a direct comparison to a place bet as they act differently.

[Irukanji]

I don't put odds behind my pass line bet. The way I see it, on the come out I have the edge because the seven is in my favor. But once the point is set (no matter what number it is), the house has the edge. So my logic is... why put more money behind a mathematically underdog bet? No matter how much one puts down in free odds the seven (house) still has the edge. It is not mathematically possible to change the chances of the seven showing once the point is set.

I understand that the free odds bet as the dealers say is the best bet. Of course they'll say that. They're selling you a bet that they have the edge on. So why even bother? Wouldn't you be better off placing a higher pass line bet at the start?

Of course when one makes the point, it's all good. "I told you so!" But that's all hindsight. After all, hindsight is 20/20.

[heavy]

Well, I did not limit the "best bet" question to Free Odds on the RIGHT side of the game. What if you're playing the Don'ts? Once your flat bet is established you have the advantage. Do you Lay odds?