MP,
You have or previously used a progression on the lay bet no 4 or no 10. Would you please share that with us or post a link to it.
MP's No 4 or No 10 lay bet progression
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Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
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Re: MP's No 4 or No 10 lay bet progression
Hi Hotshooter,
Long, long ago, in a galaxy far, far away; I did use a Lay-progression against either the No-4 or No-10. It entailed a straight forward Grand Martingale double-plus-one loss-progression of 1...3...7...15...31...63...127...255...511...1023.
Unfortunately, I bumped my head against the table-limit far too many times to count, and it always came down to MY shooting having to bail-out any to-that-point-in-the-progession R-R-produced RANDOM losses.
It was a very frustrating strategy. Here's why:
~Starting with $50 betting-units, it was easy to get to many of the table-max limits that prevailed back then. So even though a $2000 max-bet table would allow a $4000 max-Lay against the 4 or 10; it was far too easy for random-rollers to GET me to that point, and so even if my own shooting bailed me out on bringing back the much-needed 7 before another dang 4 or 10 appeared yet again; I often had to configure my Lay-bets in such a way (and in such a value) that it brought a LOT of pit-attention wherever I played.
~The table-max often prevented me from doing a full recoup on what had been lost in that Lay-progression series...so I'd have to Lay against BOTH the 4 and 10 at the same time, which increased downside risk even more.
Let me show you what I mean. The progression in actual No-4 or No-10 Lay-dollars went like this:
~$50...$150...$450 (which I usually rounded-up to $500)...then rounded up the next loss bet-reply to $1200 in order to cover the vig-burden, which in vig-up-front casinos, was umm, burdensome
...then to $2500, again, to lock in a bit of additional profit for all of the risk I had endured to that point...then bang, I want to bet $5000 at this next-loss point, but a $2000 table-limit would stop me out on my single-number Lay-strategy, and so I'd have to add a second Lay-bet against whichever of the 4 or 10 I didn't initially go against.
How do you like it so far???
~Add in the fact that once I hit the table-max, I would pause the progression (stop betting) until the dice came back around to me. That way, I felt like I had at least a fighting chance to profitably prevail.
At the end of the day, including random-rollers into the mix, made for some very trying sessions. Far too stressful for the money that was being exposed, versus the money that was being made...and the fact that all of that stress did NOT improve my D-I proficiency, and you have an untenable situation.
Like I said though, that was long, long ago, in a galaxy far, far away. These days, I'm slightly more enlightened.
MP
Long, long ago, in a galaxy far, far away; I did use a Lay-progression against either the No-4 or No-10. It entailed a straight forward Grand Martingale double-plus-one loss-progression of 1...3...7...15...31...63...127...255...511...1023.
Unfortunately, I bumped my head against the table-limit far too many times to count, and it always came down to MY shooting having to bail-out any to-that-point-in-the-progession R-R-produced RANDOM losses.
It was a very frustrating strategy. Here's why:
~Starting with $50 betting-units, it was easy to get to many of the table-max limits that prevailed back then. So even though a $2000 max-bet table would allow a $4000 max-Lay against the 4 or 10; it was far too easy for random-rollers to GET me to that point, and so even if my own shooting bailed me out on bringing back the much-needed 7 before another dang 4 or 10 appeared yet again; I often had to configure my Lay-bets in such a way (and in such a value) that it brought a LOT of pit-attention wherever I played.
~The table-max often prevented me from doing a full recoup on what had been lost in that Lay-progression series...so I'd have to Lay against BOTH the 4 and 10 at the same time, which increased downside risk even more.
Let me show you what I mean. The progression in actual No-4 or No-10 Lay-dollars went like this:
~$50...$150...$450 (which I usually rounded-up to $500)...then rounded up the next loss bet-reply to $1200 in order to cover the vig-burden, which in vig-up-front casinos, was umm, burdensome
...then to $2500, again, to lock in a bit of additional profit for all of the risk I had endured to that point...then bang, I want to bet $5000 at this next-loss point, but a $2000 table-limit would stop me out on my single-number Lay-strategy, and so I'd have to add a second Lay-bet against whichever of the 4 or 10 I didn't initially go against.How do you like it so far???
~Add in the fact that once I hit the table-max, I would pause the progression (stop betting) until the dice came back around to me. That way, I felt like I had at least a fighting chance to profitably prevail.
At the end of the day, including random-rollers into the mix, made for some very trying sessions. Far too stressful for the money that was being exposed, versus the money that was being made...and the fact that all of that stress did NOT improve my D-I proficiency, and you have an untenable situation.
Like I said though, that was long, long ago, in a galaxy far, far away. These days, I'm slightly more enlightened.
MP
Last edited by Mad Professor on Thu Jan 10, 2013 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: MP's No 4 or No 10 lay bet progression
Enlightening post, especially on the issue of how Martingales can be tricky. Never tried one, never went out with the bankroll required for one, but have read many times how they can land you in a hole.
Thanks for the illustration of the progression.
Thanks for the illustration of the progression.
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hotshooter
- Posts: 58
- Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 6:27 pm
Re: MP's No 4 or No 10 lay bet progression
Thank You MP!
Agame, I have been playing a 7 step progresion on randies. However, on my last trip to Vegas, i took 3 hits, losing all 7 steps 3 times $500 each time. I am re-thinking my betting.
Agame, I have been playing a 7 step progresion on randies. However, on my last trip to Vegas, i took 3 hits, losing all 7 steps 3 times $500 each time. I am re-thinking my betting.
Re: MP's No 4 or No 10 lay bet progression
Hotshooter,
That's the problem with progressions on randies. Everything will work well, until suddenly it doesn't.
From betting the field to laying against them, to loading the 6 & 8 and then 1 hit and down... everything will work until it doesn't.
Statistically speaking, I think the 4 and 10 are the least likely numbers to be rolled; unfortunately that doesn't make laying against these numbers a solid and constant winning bet
.
So what are you thinking about betting now? I'm rather stiff in my betting style and don't deviate much from 6&8 on randies... or on myself... I win by these numbers and lose by them also.
That's the problem with progressions on randies. Everything will work well, until suddenly it doesn't.
From betting the field to laying against them, to loading the 6 & 8 and then 1 hit and down... everything will work until it doesn't.
Statistically speaking, I think the 4 and 10 are the least likely numbers to be rolled; unfortunately that doesn't make laying against these numbers a solid and constant winning bet
.So what are you thinking about betting now? I'm rather stiff in my betting style and don't deviate much from 6&8 on randies... or on myself... I win by these numbers and lose by them also.
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hotshooter
- Posts: 58
- Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2012 6:27 pm
Re: MP's No 4 or No 10 lay bet progression
Adame,
The math was in my favor i think there was a 250-1 chance that a shooter was going to make seven points. I liked those odds. The problem is and was the naturals.
The math was in my favor i think there was a 250-1 chance that a shooter was going to make seven points. I liked those odds. The problem is and was the naturals.
Re: MP's No 4 or No 10 lay bet progression
Hotshooter: I wonder about the table you got 'hit' on; it would seem to me to be an anomaly. MP's RR progression is only 5 steps. He waits for a PL decision, before beginning to bet the DP. He states he sees an average of 28 winning shooters before a loss, which is what I've found in on-paper testing. I would have to think 7 steps extends that much further.
As for laying a number, my general RR lay bet is only the 4 or 10, and only after the shooter has thrown 3 in the current hand. I don't employ a progression, but only because any bankroll I have just can't support it. In testing I have found a 4-step progression to have good results. 40, 120, 360, 1080. After 980 rolls I am seeing better than a $3 per roll advantage. Without the progression my advantage falls to about $.75 per roll.
As a DP bettor I like the lay bet, as it seems a much more 'stable' bet, when I'm shooting. I don't have to get a 10+ roll hand, with enough 6 & 8s to press, to produce. I just have to toss a 7. PSOs are my friend.
I'm also preparing to look at incorporating a CO strategy into this. PL or DP, for shooting, runs pretty even, but what if I shoot CO rolls with a 7/11 heavy set, switching to a 7-rich set after the point? I can bump up my CO PL wins, and still get wins on the lay bet with any CO 7s.
As for laying a number, my general RR lay bet is only the 4 or 10, and only after the shooter has thrown 3 in the current hand. I don't employ a progression, but only because any bankroll I have just can't support it. In testing I have found a 4-step progression to have good results. 40, 120, 360, 1080. After 980 rolls I am seeing better than a $3 per roll advantage. Without the progression my advantage falls to about $.75 per roll.
As a DP bettor I like the lay bet, as it seems a much more 'stable' bet, when I'm shooting. I don't have to get a 10+ roll hand, with enough 6 & 8s to press, to produce. I just have to toss a 7. PSOs are my friend.
I'm also preparing to look at incorporating a CO strategy into this. PL or DP, for shooting, runs pretty even, but what if I shoot CO rolls with a 7/11 heavy set, switching to a 7-rich set after the point? I can bump up my CO PL wins, and still get wins on the lay bet with any CO 7s.