Looking to Cowtip...

[bobthetree]

I keep hearing about this Cowtippin' method around here and find bits and pieces of it buried in trip reports and such but can't find a clear cut description of it... I searched a few different ways, no avail. Anyone willing to toss me a link, or lay it out if it isn't in here? This isn't the first time I have scrounged around trying to get the details of some particular system someone was talking about. Could we start up a wiki and keep a clean details only post for each betting system, even if it is just links to articles at first... Is this already somewhere? I understand there is a sub-board for this, but I think we could let the wheat and chaff separate a bit here and then keep a list running somewhere with the more popular strategies rising to the top of the list. We could also maybe rank them 1-10 on the conservative->risky scale or something. I don't know, but it sure would be nice to have a go-to reference before digging through page after page of replies.

-Ross

[heavy]

It just so happens I was looking at this about two hours ago as I ramp up for the betting strategy session in Biloxi next weekend. Courtesy of our pal Dylanfreak, who came up with this play in all of it's variants. I call this one CowTippin' #14.

Dylanfreak is something of an anomaly in the game of craps. He only plays the Don’ts and he never shoots the dice. When he first took up the game he started out with a small ($100 or so) bankroll and declared that if he went bust he would never play the game again. He experimented with many Don’t strategies through the years – winning most of the time due as much to his discipline as to his betting strategy. I hope I am not talking out of school here, but as I recall, his “401G” gambling retirement fund has grown to in excess of $10K, yet he still plays modestly and with great discipline. And why not, considering the results.

Dylanfreak’s Cow Tippin’ strategy includes a slow negative progression similar to the D’Alembert coupled with a parlay on any win. As played by Dylanfeak it is a Dark Side progression. Press your Don’t Pass wager by $1 on each successive loss. On a win Parlay your winnings one time. After a decision is reached on the Parlay bet begin the series again with a another Don’t Pass wager. If you win your decision on the parlayed bet you must shout “Cow Tippin!” This example is based on a $15 table, but you can work at any level you wish.

Example of Cow Tippin’ Progression on a $15 Table

1st Wager $15 Don’t Pass Lose
2nd Wager $16 Don’t Pass Lose
3rd Wager $17 Don’t Pass Lose
4th Wager $18 Don’t Pass Win
5th Wager $18 Don’t Pass Win
Shout: “Cow Tippin!” $6 Net win for series

[bobthetree]

What size bankroll would you need for this on a $10 table?

Wouldn't the 5th bet be parlayed to 36?

[bobthetree]

hmmm. That crazy night I had in NYNY I ran into a guy doing some sort of lay progression crazyness with chips of all sizes. Funniest looking bankroll I have ever seen (It's a complete rainbow). I did see him lay the 10 for $1k though. He stands next to the dealer so he can quietly just inform him of what he wants as he drops his chips. He tracked everything, and when he had to throw he just did it as fast as possible to get to the next decision. After reading a bunch of don't strategies today, now I want to know what he was up to.

[bobthetree]

Edited: Looks like you should stop after 4 losses in a row. You need that 4th unit to quadruple up to cover the 4 bets (including this one) that have been made in the series.

Could someone verify if this is correct? It isn't talked about directly, but I would assume you wouldn't follow the progression into a state where your win condition before resetting would leave you negative for that round.

[sharkbyte]

What size bankroll would you need for this on a $10 table?

Wouldn't the 5th bet be parlayed to 36?

Bob...yes, it would be 36. Heavy meant that. It's the only way the math works.

[heavy]

Thanks sharkbyte. I'm asleep at the wheel this morning.

[bobthetree]

Thanks for the clarification guys, another question though...

When you loose your parlayed bet, you go back to the original $15 bet if I am reading that correctly. I think I am going to make a decision tree with random roll odds of each final output calculated too.

[bobthetree]

Decision tree, let me know if this looks correct. You go up on a win, and down on a loss. When you reach a circle, that is the end of that progression, so start over. In the boxes the top left number is the running total for that progression and the bottom right number is the current bet amount. I based this on the odds of a win loss or draw taken from wizard of odds. On a draw you just re-bet, so I went ahead and recalculated just win/loss when you always re-bet as the only two outcomes. I was rounding to 2 digits and then kept using the rounded numbers later as I needed to, so don't be surprised if it adds up to a ~.01% difference somewhere. I'm not sure I did the 3rd column correctly, someone let me know

Odds of outcome for Don't Pass
Win | 47.93%
Loss| 49.29%
Push| 2.78%

Odds when re-betting Push
Win| 47.93/97.22 = 49.30%
Loss| 49.29/97.22 = 50.70%

Outcomes from most probable to least
------------------------------------ [tr][td]Outcome Percentage Probability[/td][td]Bankroll Change for This Outcome[/td][td]Average Bankroll Change Per Progression[/td][/tr] [tr][td]49.30%[/td][td]+15[/td][td][b]$7.40[/b] [/td][/tr] [tr][td]12.68%[/td][td]-31[/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]-$3.93[/color][/b] [/td][/tr] [tr][td]12.32%[/td][td]+33[/td][td][b]$4.07[/b] [/td][/tr] [tr][td]6.61%[/td][td]-66[/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]-$4.36[/color][/b] [/td][/tr] [tr][td]6.42%[/td][td]-48[/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]-$3.08[/color][/b] [/td][/tr] [tr][td]6.25%[/td][td]+20[/td][td][b]$1.25[/b] [/td][/tr] [tr][td]3.25%[/td][td]-66[/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]-$2.15[/color][/b] [/td][/tr] [tr][td]3.17%[/td][td]+6[/td][td][b]$0.19[/b] [/td][/tr] [tr][td][/td][td][b]Average bankroll change per progression ->[/b] [/td][td][b][color=#FF0000]-$.62[/color][/b][/td][/tr]

[sharkbyte]

The only part I might disagree with is counting the parlayed units in the second loss. Reason being is that losing the parlayed bet does not actually reduce your bankroll by the total amount, only the amount of the first bet. The counterpoint is that you did lose that many units. So it would depend on how you count your losses.

[bobthetree]

I knew this didn't seem all this great when I calculated it this way with the final expected value being about -1/2 of the starting unit. I think that is the way you should expect to look at this type of system. A "Bankroll Change Per Progression" type analysis. I will reformulate later tonight hopefully. I suspect the changes will show much less variance.

[bobthetree]

The decision tree post was edited to account for sharkbyte's comments. It was pretty easy to adjust for this. I think it makes more sense this way. Thanks for pointing it out sharkbyte.

[Golfer]

I also think that DF would parlay any comeout win with a 2 or 3. If that won he would yell. I remember one time playing with him and he yelled scaring the shit out of both players and dealers. From across the way I could see Gail at the slots flippin DF the bird after he yelled. Those were the days. Wish I could find some new work down West Memphis way. Had some great times with Gail and DF.


Later

[heavy]

And I remember shooting from the right side once when DF was playing the Don'ts - and making my Pass then shouting "Cow Tippin." I think I scared him with that one.

[Golfer]

That was good H. There are quite a few moments when playing with DF.

[Blackcloud]

UNHH!!BC like to meet DF; and see him tip buffalo

[bobthetree]

So I took that decision tree and table I made up there and turned it into an interactive excel spreadsheet where you can update your base and increment amounts ($15/$1 in the original description of the system, but it looks like it works with $25/$5 and really anything). I also updated it so that you parlay a win of the first step in the series as mentioned here. I hope a few of you have time to pull it down and take a look at it. I am seriously considering starting a dark side thread and making some of these spreadsheets that map out the progressions for each as well. I find it really interesting to break down these somewhat complex systems and see how often you should end up in the "scary" phases, how much you statistically stand to loose for each progression, so on and so forth. I think if these progressive systems are working for anyone in the long haul (Dave comes to mind here), then it must work kind of like swing trading the stock market, where there is volatility that causes swings, but there are general upper and lower supports (win, and stop loss amounts here) and if you can capitalize when you are up, and drag yourself out of the depths, than maybe, just maybe you could make it work?? The mathematician in me screams that it is impossible to overcome the house edge in a randomly tossed game, although I am a bit of a dreamer In any case here is the link to the spreadsheet:

Cowtippin' Spreadsheet

Let me know if anyone needs it in an older format.

Let me know if I made any mistakes!

-Ross

[heavy]

Oh, man. I need more hours in the day so I can digest this stuff. Just a tip - if you guys are going to take a mathematical approach to any of this stuff please couch it in elementary school terms. Most of us are functioning at about a third grade math level.

No, seriously. That means when you say "Johnny had 3 apples" you need to put pictures of the apples.

I need all the help I can get.

[bobthetree]

Haha fair enough. I tried to lay it out and describe it as best as possible. I don't know if you have had a chance to look yet, but the excel sheet is layed out like the graphic from earlier and even includes sweet coloring and directions. If there is something that is not clear, please let me know and I will do my best to come up with a way to present this stuff. Also if we can get DylanFreake in here to comment on if this is how he plays it, that would be great too

[bobthetree]

I had a small error when I changed some things up the layout a bit. The starting amount wasn't being transferred from the user entry to the start. Its fixed now.

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2176049/averag ... ippin.xlsx