Playing to Lose

[sharkbyte]

This subject is two-fold. As I've said previously, I prefer the Dont's and even prefer utilizing a Lay Bet strategy when I finally get back into the casino. With that, I would be interested in hearing any Lay strategies you might have. I can compare them against the 4 that I currently test.

Second, with my practice, I seem to have found a Golden BB (rather than a Silver Bullet).

I have tossed 13 sessions. 1680 rolls. And no matter how good/bad my toss seems to be, this particular set has finished on the plus side. So I'm 'playing to lose', in my practice sessions, because I actually want to see this set lose. I expect I'll have another 1500 rolls before I will be able to consider going to the casino, so there's still plenty of time to break it.

[sharkbyte]

Ask and ye shall receive.

Tonight's practice session came back at -$95 on a 3-step progression. Still positive on a 4-step progression, though.

[heavy]

Very interesting results, SB. Keep us posted on how it holds up.

[sharkbyte]

Ran several bet modifications, and was unable to find anything realistic that would make this last session positive; so it is a definite loser. Which is great. I feel much more confident with a set that still takes a hit, once in a while, than with one that never does.

Now I'm working on my strategy to build my bankroll to the point of being able to support my 3-step progression. 40-120-360 or alternately 40-160-520. Any thoughts - Heavy, MP, or others, as to what that bankroll needs to be? I would venture not as high as one might think, since this strategy is entirely lay bets.

[Knick111]

greetings sharkbyte.

my friend i recomend not to lay the 4 or 10 or 9,
when you see a shooter like me who is playing the field, the field is my money ticket, and i am good
at hitting those numbers.

s.b. keep your eyes open for those shooters that bet the field, because if you don't it will cost you money.

luck tonight at your local casino. JAIME F.S.P.R. u.s.a. smile and the whole world will smile with you.

[Operator]

shark can you run your program for crapless? if so lay the 12 and 2. while working the 5,6,8,9 all the time working.Using the 16 16 hardway set.

[heavy]

You know, not every casino will let you lay against points on Crapless. Beats me why. Just because there's no DP or DC line doesn't mean you shouldn't be able to lay against.

[sharkbyte]

shark can you run your program for crapless? if so lay the 12 and 2. while working the 5,6,8,9 all the time working.Using the 16 16 hardway set.

I don't doubt it could be modified for this, but I have never seen, and really know nothing about Crapless craps.

[sharkbyte]

This is already (sort of) taken into account. Once set of screens allow you to look at the fewest specific outcomes, during a session. Such as the dice sets that produced the fewest outcomes of 3s. These would be sets you would be interested in using if you wanted to Lay the 3.

This exists because of coding to look at minimum results for standard box numbers, and I simply included the remaining numbers as well. So the data already exist. It's just a matter of making use of it.

[sharkbyte]

An interesting thing I found this AM;

Reviewing one set of tosses I show I'm tossing a 10 at right about 24% versus the 7. So a 75.75% winning percentage, across all relevant decisions. This translates to about $1.17 / roll advantage.

Reviewing a subset of tosses, where I have made and maintained specific tweaks to my toss, my winning percentage has risen to 78.1%. My percentage only rose by about 2, but my dollar advantage has risen nearly a third to $1.51 / roll.

[sharkbyte]

I have settled on what my UH toss will look like. After trying 4 different iterations, i came back to my first one and found I have better consistency getting a clean toss, without my thumb getting in the way.

Once I determined this, I began focusing all my practice to using that toss/release. In reviewing the first several sessions I have found 3 distinct result sets, where I can see bunched, cosnistent results between sessions.

When evaluating all sessions together I am tossing 7s at a 4:1 rate over 10s. But if I move my sessions into focused groups, I get 11:1, 8:1, and 6:1.

Using this knowledge I explored the position outcomes, for each toss, to determine what numbers had a predisposition of appearing. I layed these numbers out, for all 3 groups, and found that while there were numbers that appeared in at least 2 groups (sometimes all three), there were also numbers that were specific to each group.

I am hoping to find a way that I can use these numbers as an early indicator in how a session will trend. My goal is to do this after 10 rolls.

On paper, the first session would have been successful, though in practice I found I made my decision too quick. I decided after 5 tosses, instead of 10. Example:

Toss.......Group w/ #
1............1 - 2
2................2
3.............2 - 3
4................3
5................2 <--- I made the decision this was a group 2 session...but I was wrong.
6..........1 - 2 - 3
7................3
8............1 - 3
9..............3
10..........1 - 3

If I had waited until the 10th toss I would have clearly chosen group 3, which is what this session turned out to be. And the results bear this out...

Using a set based on all test sessions: 10 7s and 8 10s -- a losing session.
Switching @ roll 11 to a group 3 set: 13 7s and 1 10s
Using a group 2 set: 16 7s and 6 10s -- okay, almost a breakeven/loss, and certainly not as good as group 3.

I also found it interesting that all 10 tosses were listed in the predominant result sets for at least one group; and half were in more than one. There were no "empty" tosses.

Thoughts...

[amish dude]

shark can you run your program for crapless? if so lay the 12 and 2. while working the 5,6,8,9 all the time working.Using the 16 16 hardway set.

I don't doubt it could be modified for this, but I have never seen, and really know nothing about Crapless craps.

Crapless craps can be found in Tunica, MS at the road house a Total Rewards casino
I think it was sweet roll who did very well at IT !

[acpa]

I believe Crapless is also at SAMs,a Boyd property, at Hollywood , a Penn National property and it may be at other casinos in Tunica.

Noah

[heavy]

Bump this. Playing to lose. That means YOUR are shooting from the Don'ts. There's a particular dice pre-set that gives you more sevens, thus more opportunities to win by losing. Agree or disagree? Easy to do? Why aren't more of us shooting from the Don'ts?

[mssthis1]

For me it's my bread and butter underhand grip with the hardway set. The change is I shift my grip slightly to the right so my middle finger has more contact on the right die and increase the revs.

I believe the main reason is you lose the dice on a seven out.

Back in the day when the boats here were required to sail for two hours a day I used to shoot from the don't all the time if I could catch a cruise where I was the only person playing craps. During the week that was most days.

[ackuric]

IMO shooting/playing to lose isn't as challenging, and is quite boring. Even if you're at an empty table and get the dice back every time to toss the 7, there really isn't a lot of fun in playing this way...it lacks the thrill that even a mediocre roll has. I have done it with great success. Set 2v on the comeout and hope for a 4-10 to show, and then set 5-2 / 4-3 and let the inevitable happen. If you happen to land 6/8 on your come out, keep your odds low and maybe even bet around them a bit for a hedge (I despite hedge bets but in some instances when played intelligently and infrequently you can minimize losses)

Influencing the dice in such a manner where the odds are already in your favor isn't very enticing or exciting imo. Nor is holding the dice 20 times and crapping out (intentionally) within 3-5 rolls consistently. The 7 is expected to come, you don't see 10+ PSO's and say, wow, that is truly remarkable and unheard of! What you do get is a 20-30+ roll without a 7 and a rush of adrenaline followed by a wow, thank god that guy had a hot hand!

Influencing the dice in such a manner where that the most probable number to show isn't seen for an extended period of time while you rake in the casinos dough is when people make noise. I've never seen a table cheer after every PSO because its trending and everyone jumped on the don'ts...and the reason is as I have described.

Now if you go to a table and its cold, and even with your best attempts you can't seem to break the ice, then it would be a no-brainer to modify your approach and start playing to lose. As far as I know, there hasn't been one single DI that could consistently maintain winning sessions every time they were handed the dice. Nor is there 1 single solitary guaranteed to win strategy. The biggest key factors to leaving with more in your pocket than you came with is reading the table while betting accordingly, and dumb luck. Any roll beyond what is probable and any bet made that nets return during this time is honestly just dumb luck. Probability doesn't lie and whether you admit it or not, rolling the die randomly or in an influenced manner will result in roughly the same amount of 7's over a period of millions of rolls, if it were any different you wouldn't have this game to play at the casinos. For us, its about catching those short term cycles that are in any number but 7's favor, and taking advantage of them.

In every roll of the dice, as they land they are always at least within 2 turns of a 7, 2 turns...there is no way possible to completely control that every time given the conditions craps is played. I have no doubt that you can influence it minutely...hence why most people call themselves dice influencer and not dice controllers. In the end you're still wagering on probability and its more exciting to win when the odds are against you.

-Matt

[heavy]

So this plays to a question Irish likes to ask at the seminars. Did you come to have fun or did you come to make money? For me, making money is fun - I don't care how you do it. Sure, there's a "high" associated with tossing a long hand and making a huge score. But even skilled shooters fall down on that score from time to time. I would say "monster hands are the crack cocaine of craps" but Golfer already claimed that phrase for "hop bets." LOL.

Any other thoughts?

[DanF]

If you want to shoot the don’ts try hw set with a quarter turn. You won’t take long to show a seven on most occasions with a good axis toss, ‘cuz most of em is going to be single pitch.

[pappyvanwinkle]

The big problem with playing the don'ts for most people is at its core there's something they don't accept or like about it. Namely, you are betting more to win less. If your not laying the odds, to me your really not playing the don'ts, I'd say the same if your strategy on the do side was to play pass line, and come bets and not take odds. It goes to my argument though, for those that do don't pass and don't come without the lay, its easier to accept because your getting even money, but the moment we cross into the bet more to win less it gets uncomfortable. We are not willing to risk it.

[Moe Bettor]

So if you have $120 placed across the table, are you betting more to win less? VS laying $12 behind a DC that has moved to the 5, say.