You're Tossing a Hot Hand - How do you Bet it?

[heavy]

A question was asked on another thread and it got me to thinking about the number of times that I (or another DI I was watching) had a monster roll - we're talking hour plus hands - but failed to capitalize on it. The player was so focused on his toss that he simply forgot to bet it properly (althought it remains to be seen what properly is). There has to be a solution to this. Any suggestions?

I recall Slazy telling the story once about playing at Hollywood in Tunica. He's been having long hands but making little money. The dealer told him something to the effect of "you know how to toss but you don't know how to bet - next hand you concentrate on throwing the dice and let me run your bets for you." Slazy took the dealer up on the offer and made a significant profit on his next hand. The funny part - he didn't really notice what the dealer was doing with his bets. He just heard the dealer saying "this is your money - pick it up" after every toss.

My solution for all this is fairly complex. I have different press strategies for every number. I have an aggressive power press strategy for the four and ten. I press every other hit on the five and nine. I press the six and eight in pairs, running one of my six and eight progressions you've seen before.

A simpler way might be to take a single early regression, then press every other hit, pressing only the number that rolls.

Anyway - I've given you a couple of options. Let's hear how you run your bets - AND - how it impacts your toss. Can you multi-task at craps? That is the question!

[Mad Professor]

Let me throw the Mad Professor’s $204-Across equal-payout Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing into the pool of possibilities.

It is designed for betting on skilled-shooters, where you personally don't know ahead of time what their specific Right-side best-numbers strengths are; but I would think that it could be adapted to your own throwing too.

Initial Bet:

~Wager $25 each on the Buy-4 and Buy-10......$35 each on the Place-5 and Place-9......$42 each on the Place-6 and Place-8. That equals $204-Across.

~Any paying-hit on any one of those six box-numbers kicks off the same $49 payout.

~My approach calls for collecting two (2) paying hits at that bet-level, and then regressing everything down to $44-Inside.

~From there, we immediately employ Passive/Aggressive pressing as follows:

~For the 6 or 8 the press-schedule looks like this:

$12......$18......$30.....$42.....$60.....$90.....$120....
$150....$180.....$240.....$300....$420.....$600.....$900....$1200...
$1800...$3000...$4200...$6000, etc.


~For the 5 or 9 the press-schedule looks like this:

$10....$15.....$25.....$35.....$50.....$75.....$100....
$125.....$150....$200....$250.....$350.....$500....$750....$1000...
$1500...$2500...$3500...$5000, etc.


~If the 4 and/or 10 starts to appear too; then some of your already-racked profit could be used to re-fund a new Buy-bet on one or both of them as well.

~In that case, the 4 or 10 press-schedule looks like this:

$15...$25...$35...$50...$75...$100...$150...$200...
$300...$500...$1000...$1500...$2000...$2500...
$3000...$4000...$5000...$7500, etc.

It’s also important to point out once again that this is NOT for when I am shooting (or for when you know what the specific shooter's highest-advantage numbers are); but rather it’s an attempt to formulate a “one-size-NEARLY-fits-all” D-I betting-approach for when you walk up to a tableful of skilled-shooters, but you don’t know ahead of time what each of those shooter’s specific best-advantage numbers are.

The indicated net-profit numbers that this approach has gleaned so far (from about 1,000 in-casino hands and 9,000 tosses recorded by our friend LagunaFlats) from the likes of Heavy, ElephantTracks, Stanford Wong, CharlieG, Isgood, FreddieB, AlleyOop, Hinduman, Scout, Asylum, Red, Sawman, Everyday, and MacDice…all the way to The Natural, Scout, DoSA, Mickey, 7TimesaChamp, Shunkaha, Nune, Dr. J, TN-Nighthawk, BigQ, PappyVanWinkle, ShootItAll, Anomalyst, BobbyBones, Shaver, and CrimsonTide (plus a few others whose proper names I won’t include); are quite strong.



MP

[heavy]

I like certain aspects of that play. The problem is - it's too complex for a highly focused shooter to bet on his own hands.

I'm not sure what sort of results you could expect when "bundling" the recorded tosses of a dozen or more shooters. My experience has been that when you combine the results of a group - even a skilled group - the end results will approach random.

[wild child]

.
It then comes down to the individual player and his COMFORT ZONE.

Most often the concern is paying for or "locking up" an amount at least equal to
the original money at risk. One simple and effective method is some form of early reduction in the amount on the felt that is at risk of loss to the next roll of the dice.

After that reduction to amount at risk ,increase the future amount at risk
while removing profit each toss. Then the field of dreams would be to stack the chips to the ceiling

Only take the risks you can afford to lose.

Just me saying

W C