Poor man's version of MP's $204-Across Regression

[dork]

viewtopic.php?f=4&t=222&p=1640&hilit=%24204#p1640

That's the link I found for Mad Professor's $204 WOTCO regression strategy.

I like the idea a lot, I just can't stomach the expense of $204 at once. I also place my bets for a bigger quick kill if the dice will cooperate. Here's my version:

I set up 6 flat $1 chips across the rack and track the numbers rolled. I bet $78 or $81 across after the come-out on a stranger. If I'm the shooter, I bet $96 WOTCO and set the dice in a variation of the V-2. My bet would look like $15, 15, 18, 18, 15, 15. Two hits and regress to $44 inside. Minimum Pass Line bet with $15 odds when the point is established and the corresponding place bet is paid and taken down; on the regression to $44 inside (or $32 inside), I regress the PL odds to $10, too. What can I say, I'm cheap.

From that point, all place bets are "upped one unit" until any single box number is rolled a second time. At that point, I parlay only that single box number for a total of 3 increased bets. All other box numbers proceed at the usual pace of "up one unit". When the parlayed box number wins again, I either parlay for the 4th time, take the proceeds, or take the proceeds and regress that box number back to $10 depending on my 'hunch' feeling at the time. My "chart"--the six flattened $1 chip markers, is important during this entire process for controlling the betting.

When I'm ahead $70 on a hand, I'll place $10 each on the 4/10; this insures that I make at least $50 on the hand. I'll 'up one unit' on the 4/10 with the rest unless either of those two numbers repeats rolls twice quickly; then I'll make a decision on what number to parlay, and move the big place bet accordingly. Once in a while, I'll have two place bets parlaying and just ease off on the inside number if the 4/10 catch up quickly.

If the point is made, I leave all place bets standing and add enough to fill any empty 4/10 with $15 to WOTCO. On the new point, I increase the PL odds by 50% (every time I make the point).

I was a regular $54 across bettor (with no regression), so $81/78 isn't too much of a step up for two rolls, and I have just enough faith in myself to push that number to $96. Two hits in either case, and I'm back in my real comfort zone. I played the actual $204 WOTCO once when I felt really hot. I survived it, barely--on the regression to $44 inside, I seven'd out. The whole episode had the hair on the back of my neck itchin' to stand up. $204 is too high in the thin air for me; or maybe I 'willed' myself a seven-out. In any case, I submit my "poor man's version".

[heavy]

I thought I would bring this post back up to the top of the page and see if it would garner any discussion this time around. I recall thinking at the time that Dork's "Poor Man" play off of the $204 across strategy was very well thought out - especially considering that Dork is a relative newcomer to the came compared to some of us old gray beards. In fact, the strategy reminds me in many ways of the Green Chip Goldmine play I sent out in the last newsletter - which get me to where I'd play it differently than Dork. I'd take my six and eight, for example, directly to $42 each the first time they hit. The five and nine would go straight to $35 each. I'd make the four and ten look like $25 buy bets. If I wanted to temper the play any then I'd hand in there until I had three bets pressed up - then take down the bets that have not hit yet. We'll call that an "eviction regression." The bets were not paying their rent so they got evicted. Depending on what numbers HAVE rolled - there's always the option to transition into some sort of Iron Cross play. Imagine if you'd pressed up your five, six and eight. Then take down the remainder of your bets and head for the Field. Hmmm. I think I'd prefer to simply regress. Anyway, my mind is always racing on stuff like this. Any thoughts from those of you who like to play with different strategies?

[bobthetree]

Heavy, are you saying that you would stay at Dork's starting amount and press the first hit to your new amounts for only that number? Then once three are pressed, "evict" the other 2 bets [1 being locked up as the point]? For that matter if you have a point of 9 and then roll 4,5,6 would you take off your odds as part of the "eviction", leaving only the pressed amount of $25,$35,$42 on the 4,5,6? This sounds like a good way to bet in many ways, but I believe it is quite different from the original "goal" of the MP Across, 2 hits, build back up slowly type system. I will need to do the math later when I have some time, but I think MP's strategy is profitable on the place bet portion after 2 hits with some money left on the table. Dork's system has a less steep of a regression and unless you hit a 4 or 10 is pretty much 2 hits to pay for the bets and then profit from there. I think all the strategies sound pretty good, but maybe that their goal, or target minimum box to sevens ratio to be profitable could end up being quite different. More analysis later.

[bobthetree]

Also if you could do one of you famous "Heavy's simulated tosses" and what the bets are after each roll, that would paint a nice image for anyone following along

[heavy]

Ah yes. A trip to "Heavy's Perfect World Casino." Sure. I'll run an example when I have some dead-head time at work today.

[Mad Professor]

For those of you that aren't fully familiar with either the MP $204-Across Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing or all of the bet-variations related to that theme, will find it here:

Testing, Testing...Formulized D-I Betting-Strategies


MP

[heavy]

Okay, for this example I'm going to assume that YOU are the shooter. It's a $10 Game with 3x4x5x odds. You bet $96 across Working On the Come Out (WOTCO), toss the dice and set the point of . . . NINE. The dealer pays you $21. Take down the $15 Place bet on the nine, stack it and the payoff behind your line, taking $36 odds. You COULD add $4 to max out your odds if you wanted.

Dice are out. You set my favorite "NINE" set - the 4-6 on the left die and the 5-3 on the right - you're looking at4-5 on top and 6-3 facing you. You toss 'em down the table and the call is EIGHT HARD. The $18 eight pays $21. In this case we WILL drop new money on the table. Drop $3 and say "Make my eight look like $42."

Dice are out. Re-set the dice and toss - FIVE FEVER. The five pays $21. Tell the dealer to "Make my FIVE look like $35" and collect your $1 change.

Dice are out. Reset and toss - EIGHT HARD. Drop that dollar the dealer just gave you in change and say "Fifty for one," then lock up two green chips.

This is the point at which the fat guy standing on the other side of stick says "Two way hard eight - five and one - player control." Yeah, I'm a sucker.

Dice are out. Reset and toss - YO, Eleven. No harm no foul.

The guy on the other side of stick says "$4 Horn."

Dice are out. Reset and toss - THREE CRAPS. The guy next to stick says "Make my horn look like $8" and collects $8.

Dice are out. Reset and toss - TWELVE CRAPS. The guy next to stick says "Press it $4 and give me the green." You scratch your head and say $2 C&E.

Dice are out. Reset and toss - SIX. The six pays $21. Drop $3 and power press it to $42. then say "Bring me down off my Four and Ten." and put the $30 in the rack.

Dice are out. Reset and toss - FIVE - No Field FIVE. Drop $1 and say "Fifty for One."

Dice are out. Reset and toss - NINE - Winner. PAY PAY PAY. The dealer pays you $10 for the line bet and $54 Behind.

Okay, where are we. Plus $64 for the PL bet and odds. Plus $49 on the hit on the eight (initial bet and press still on the table). Plus $49 on the repeater on the five (initial bet and press still on the table). You've taken $162 off the table. You now have around $45 "at risk" dollars (your initial bets) in the $119 you have on the table. You're ready to toss the next one.

Hopefully I didn't much this up too much. Lots of distractions at the old office today.

The question you have to ask yourself at this point is whether or not you want to work on the come out. If you're playing with an advantage and your toss is "on" then you probably should. On the flip side, I always say that on a great hand - all the sevens come out at the right time, and the right time is on the come out. Your call - and the subject of another thread.

[mycoalsmith]

Wow, if only it was THAT easy! I must be standing at all the wrong tables. There must not be any DI here in PA.

I'm a very conservative player, playing on $5.00 table. Covering the numbers puts $32.00 of my money at risk. I don't know how many times I've done that, and in 2 or 3 throws, the 7 appears. I'm now in the hole.

Tell you what. I want a bunch of you DI to come invade my territory. Erie, PA, Pittsburgh, PA, or Washington, PA. Let me know when you are coming.

I would really like to see a table like that. Let me win some money and watch the casino pitboss scramble to see what the HECK is going on?!?

[heavy]

That was an eight number hand. Had it ended with a seven out on roll eight it would have been pretty much a text book random roll. Since the hand now proceeds with the next game - we have an opportunity to make some real money. Allow me to roll the dice on my desk top a few times and see how long it takes us to finish this hand:

First roll - SIX is the point
Second roll - SIX - Winner

Well, obviously it didn't end there. Let's try again.

First roll - Three Craps
Second roll - Eight is the point
Third roll - Six
Fourth roll - Six HARD
Fifth roll - Seven out - line down.

Total of fifteen numbers rolled. You'd have collected $50 for $1 on that first SIX if you were working on the come out. Come down off the $42 Six and take $50 odds. Six repeats and you win $70 total.

Lose $10 on the next Come Out. Unless you set up $42 on the eight after making the eight as the point then no impact on that eight on the come out. Take $50 odds. Re-set the $42 Six. Six rolls again - $50 for $1. Six repeats hard - $50 for $1. Seven out - it all goes away.

I'll leave it to one of you guys with more time than me to figure out how we did on that hand. Somebody please post a total won or lost.