Sam Grafstein's Blackjack strategy - end of "DiceDoctor"

[bobthetree]

At the end of the Sam's Dice Doctor book there is a small description of a simple blackjack system. You only count the last hand and adjust for the next. Combined with the money management, it seem it might just have a positive EV, but that is entirely my intuition on what I read. It also seems easier to implement in the casino. Has anyone done any detailed analysis of it? It does seem strange not to split 8s and aces against anything but terrible dealer hands, but that could be modified... I might get around to coding it up if no one has any good answers for this one. Couldn't find much about it on the google machine at my first few searches.

[bobthetree]

Is there a "WinCraps of BJ" where you can program betting schemes and pull the 1000's of shoes lever? I could program it myself, but something tells me it has all been done before...

[Americraps]

casino verite

[heavy]

Just don't try to talk craps with those guys.

Now, The Dice Doctor's strategy is not unlike several others out there. One was called the Empirical Count. You might Google the Easy OPP system - which is mathematically based and has been well tested. It is not as powerful as the Hi-Lo or Hi Op or KO counts - but it ain't bad and you can learn it in fifteen minutes. Here's a link that explains the system over on Arnold Snyders blackjack forum: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/con ... asyOPP.htm

[heavy]

One thing I'll add about card counting. New technology. The latest? A "smart" shoe that counts cards as they are dealt. As the count goes higher the dealer watches for players who are increasing their bets - indicating that they are likely counting cards. Here's a bit of info on it: http://21casino.net/new-blackjack-techn ... _221305663

[bobthetree]

Hmmm interesting. In general is there a way to bet that gives even the slightest edge while only using 1-4 units or something that should fly somewhat under the radar? I think that was part of what was interesting about the grafstein system, you could run it by yourself without it being really obvious. At least, potentially.

[Mad Professor]

I don't know if any of you are interested in this; but we put together a Reflections on the Dice Doctor, Sam Grafstein thread that I think really captures a perspective on ole Sam that some might enjoy.


MP

[heavy]

Bob -

Basically I start out with a two unit bet and play an up-as-you-win Paroli strategy - beginning with two units and increasing one unit on each win - then regressing back to two units on a loss. If I lose the hand after the regression I take a second regression to one unit and play at that level for two more decisions. If I lose both of those bets I sit out the rest of that shoe. Statistically, it is almost impossible to recover from four consecutive losses in that shoe, so there's really no point in continuing to play it at that point. Take a bathroom break instead.

I do count cards through all of this, using my version of the Easy Opp. I do a few things for cover while playing so it is not quite so obvious what I'm up to. First off, I'll sandbag a chip or two from time to time because I want to appear to be losing. I tend to play the role of the "lovable drunk" at the blackjack table. When the count gets high enough I start proclaiming that it is "time for a get-back bet" and toss out a five to ten unit bet. Then I'll slap the table when the cards are being dealt and shout for the dealer to "slap me an ace!"

Ninety percent of the time you'll be risking fewer than five or six units and should get little or no heat.

[bobthetree]

Thanks for the details heavy, sounds like a good system to me! I'll definitely keep it in mind. I like playing some BJ from time to time and might as well have a serious game plan, but I'm not looking to win a whole ton of money, so a low heat strategy is necessary.

My initial searches for a paroli system yielded sever different progression amounts, could you specify the one you use?

What kind of buy in, loss limit, and target win are you shooting for (in terms of units of course)

Thanks,
BTT

[heavy]

In a $5 game (that's rare) I'd buy in for $300. Initial bet is $10. Win - go to $15 - Lose - stay at $10. Increase by $5 on every win. On any loss go back to $10. Lose a second hand after regressing to $10 - regress to $5. Stay at that level until you win, at which point you'd go to 10 - 15 - 20 - 25 etc. I usually cap my progression at $25 when playing this way, continuing to bet $25 a hand until I lose a hand - then back to $10. I try to stick with a 50% loss limit and am looking for a 50% win.

[bobthetree]

MP, I think I had read some of those stories from you somewhere else but made it to the bottom of the thread today. Did you ever get around to putting up your first-person stories of Sam somewhere?

[Mad Professor]

Hi Bob,

I haven't posted those additional pieces into that DiceDoctor/Grafstein thread yet; they're just sitting around here waiting to be edited. I'll put that on my to-do list.

Thanks for the reminder.

MP

[Bushido]

Thanks for the details heavy, sounds like a good system to me! I'll definitely keep it in mind. I like playing some BJ from time to time and might as well have a serious game plan, but I'm not looking to win a whole ton of money, so a low heat strategy is necessary.

My initial searches for a paroli system yielded sever different progression amounts, could you specify the one you use?

What kind of buy in, loss limit, and target win are you shooting for (in terms of units of course)

Thanks,
BTT

Bob,

I use Norm Wattenberger's REKO along with Daniel Dravot's Color of Blackjack bet ramp...This count is about as simple as you would want to use to generate some reasonable profits...

Norm Wattenberger's free book...
http://qfit.com/book/index.htm

[bobthetree]

Thanks for the replies everyone, certainly a lot to look over, when I'm not elbow-deep in craps!

[Bushido]

I used all the counting methods from Hi Lo to Wong Halves to all of them including the bullshit Speed Count

I recommend Hi LO OPT2, UBZ2, Cardoza Strategies. Your in...

THeres this new one from Burton Winslow called BI COUNT BLackjack

Anyone know what its is mind telling what it is ?

Thanks

I just read the description of this book and it didn't impress me...I would say only a ploppy would buy this book...

[bobthetree]

So you have had some good success with "' Silver Fox / Koka Ita / Green Fountain ' count" SnakeEyes?

[Bushido]

If anyone wants to compare card counting systems for Blackjack check out this page...

http://www.qfit.com/card-counting.htm

[bobthetree]

Nice SnakeEyes! What has kept you out of heat trouble with what I assume to be decades of success now?

Also, is the "unique C/O counting strategy" part of the 3 names you listed earlier, or is it special to the $$$ system you bought in the 80's?

-Ross

[heavy]

Good grief. Am I going to have to put someone in time out?

Allow me to mention that I have not edited anyone's posts on this thread, so if posts were taken down either the posters themselves did it - or Irish or Maddog stepped in and handled it on my behalf. If either of them did so - I'm confident they made the right decision.

Next, tens of millions or tens of billions of hands in a sim? Seriously? Pardon my French, but I doubt that the results between the two would differ enough to amount to a cab ride to McCarren at the end of the day.

The more complicated the count system the more subject it is to fail due to player mistakes. Period.

It would be amusing to put Schlesinger, Snyder, Wong, (blackjack stars all) and a few others who are looked on with disdain by the BJ community (John Patrick - Jerry Patterson - for example) at a five seat table - $100 minimum - $5000 maximum - $5000 table stakes each in a six deck game with decent rules but lousy penetration - and let them play for eight hours, then see who comes in on top. My bet? The casino.

[heavy]

Of course putting any competent card player against a stacked deck like poor penetration, is a bit like putting Heavy, Dice Coach, Mad Professor, Patterson, Sharpshooter and a few others who are looked on with disdain by some dice camps (Scoblete - Captain (if he were alive)- for example) at a fourteen foot table, - $100 minimum - $5000 maximum - table stakes with triple pay on 2 or 12, no commision on the four or ten, but a bouncy trampline surface - and let them play for eight hours, then see who comes in on top. My bet? The casino.

LOL. I've played with most of the people on that list. I'd add a few more to the list. Irish and Maddog, Shootitall, PappyVanWinkle, and (of course) the Alabama boys - you know who you are. Make that a 2 hour session and let me play my strategy - picking my entry and exit points on hands I bet on - and I'd probably be in - bouncy 14 footer or not. The only thing different from that table and the one at Santa Ana Star is the length (the Star's table HAS to be 16 feet) and the table minimums. I think I can handle the bounce. I have a shot for that. With the Free Buy bets and triple triple on the Field - hell, I could beat that game on variance alone. Throw in a little money management and discipline and you're set.