In another thread, Has anyone profited from DIce Influencing, Heavy agreed that I would post 20 rolls from my rolls starting with the day after July 4, 2009.
The date was an artificial date Heavy selected as a start point. Hopefully, wolf byte, will apply his betting system to them and then I'll add 20 more rolls etc.
I started a new topics to not hi jack the other post.
These are my actual rolls and I have a slightly better than random SRR, but I have looked at thes actal rolls,
Rolls
1,1
6,5
4,1
4,3
6,5
5,5
2,1
5,1
5,2
4,3
5,5
6,1
5,1
1,1
3,3
4,3
6,1
4,1
6,3
5,3
More will follow later.
Noah
For what it is worth, these rolls were at a $5 table with 20 times odds in Tunica
Rolls for testing a betting system.
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Hey, this is killing me already. $50 World. $20 High Low. $50 plays the line. I will play a Line Bet Only Progression - up a unit on every Pass Line win (e.g. $50 - $100 - $150 - $200) and regress back to $50 after any PL loss - no place bets - no lay bets - no props except those mentioned on the Come Out.
Toss 1 - win $555 - lose $50 on the line - net plus $505
Toss 2 - win $150 on the Yo - $50 on the line - lose $40 in props - net plus $160 - total plus $665
Bring down all of my action - color coming in . . .
Someone who has more time than me can play this strategy the rest of this series if you wish.
Toss 1 - win $555 - lose $50 on the line - net plus $505
Toss 2 - win $150 on the Yo - $50 on the line - lose $40 in props - net plus $160 - total plus $665
Bring down all of my action - color coming in . . .
Someone who has more time than me can play this strategy the rest of this series if you wish.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
ACPA.....
Your numbers re-formated to Real-World layout :
1]...2
2]...11
3]...57
4]...11
5]....10367
6]...7
7]...55
8]...7
9]...626
10]...7
11]...7
12]...5987
My asshole Apple Computer just ate my 20 paragraph handicap of your above numbers ! This piece of crap Computer is history !
Anyway, the 77 craps system sets up a play on the back-to-back 7's at the end of play #5 and the seven rolled on play #6.
Pre-play #7.... we look back on our just-completed rolls to find the longest non-appearing 4,5,9 and 10 to use as our Richochet 100% C/O roll protection against a C/O seven from killing-off our DP box bet.
Your numbers and the longest non-appearing 4,5,9 and 10's BEFORE play #7 gets started :
10....has not appeared in 4 rolls
5....has not appeared in 7 rolls
4.... has not appeared the longest... ? rolls...
9....has not appeared in 9 rolls
It takes only milli-seconds to scan-back and find the longest non-appearing number. We use the 4 as the Ricochet 100% protection number against the C/O seven killing our DP bet.
In practice and in real play, I use $150.00 in the DP box as my base-betting-unit. We put + $300.00 as a ....No Four... lay-bet .and, at the same time, we put $150.00 in the DP box.
#7].... The pt. is a ' 5.' We take down our $300.00 hedge bet and wait for the play's outcome. The five comes back and we lose -$150.00
#8].... The next play we double-up our bets to + $600.00 ...No 4....and we put $300.00 in the DP box. The point number is the seven . Our hedge-bet saves our $300.00 DP bet.
#9].... The 4 is still the longest non-appearing number...so...we put up our previous bets. The pt. is a six. I 100% hedge-out all points of 6 and 8. We PLACE-BET THE SIX for + $282.00. We now have the perfect hedge....+ $48.00if the six makes its point and + $18.00 if the six-point sevens-out.
The six comes back and we pocket the + $48.00..... with no risk......sweet !
#10 & #11]...... We are back up on our + $600.00 RICOCHET pre-point hedge bet with + $300.00 in the DP box on both of these plays. Both of these plays result in C/O sevens ! ... Our NO 4 ....Ricochet bets save our bacon.... NO LOSSES .... of our DP box bets saving us + $300.00 each........Sweet !
#12]...... We bring back our + $600.00 RICHOCHET pre-C/O point protection lay-bet on the 4 and we put up our + $300.00 DP box bet.
The point rolled is the five. We take-down our $600.00 lay-bet and wait for our + $300.00 DP bet's outcome....
The dice roll.....5,9,8,7.
We have recovered our - $150.00 previous loss and made a +$150.00 profit for a net profit of + $198.00 !
Thoughts ?
WB
Your numbers re-formated to Real-World layout :
1]...2
2]...11
3]...57
4]...11
5]....10367
6]...7
7]...55
8]...7
9]...626
10]...7
11]...7
12]...5987
My asshole Apple Computer just ate my 20 paragraph handicap of your above numbers ! This piece of crap Computer is history !
Anyway, the 77 craps system sets up a play on the back-to-back 7's at the end of play #5 and the seven rolled on play #6.
Pre-play #7.... we look back on our just-completed rolls to find the longest non-appearing 4,5,9 and 10 to use as our Richochet 100% C/O roll protection against a C/O seven from killing-off our DP box bet.
Your numbers and the longest non-appearing 4,5,9 and 10's BEFORE play #7 gets started :
10....has not appeared in 4 rolls
5....has not appeared in 7 rolls
4.... has not appeared the longest... ? rolls...
9....has not appeared in 9 rolls
It takes only milli-seconds to scan-back and find the longest non-appearing number. We use the 4 as the Ricochet 100% protection number against the C/O seven killing our DP bet.
In practice and in real play, I use $150.00 in the DP box as my base-betting-unit. We put + $300.00 as a ....No Four... lay-bet .and, at the same time, we put $150.00 in the DP box.
#7].... The pt. is a ' 5.' We take down our $300.00 hedge bet and wait for the play's outcome. The five comes back and we lose -$150.00
#8].... The next play we double-up our bets to + $600.00 ...No 4....and we put $300.00 in the DP box. The point number is the seven . Our hedge-bet saves our $300.00 DP bet.
#9].... The 4 is still the longest non-appearing number...so...we put up our previous bets. The pt. is a six. I 100% hedge-out all points of 6 and 8. We PLACE-BET THE SIX for + $282.00. We now have the perfect hedge....+ $48.00if the six makes its point and + $18.00 if the six-point sevens-out.
The six comes back and we pocket the + $48.00..... with no risk......sweet !
#10 & #11]...... We are back up on our + $600.00 RICOCHET pre-point hedge bet with + $300.00 in the DP box on both of these plays. Both of these plays result in C/O sevens ! ... Our NO 4 ....Ricochet bets save our bacon.... NO LOSSES .... of our DP box bets saving us + $300.00 each........Sweet !
#12]...... We bring back our + $600.00 RICHOCHET pre-C/O point protection lay-bet on the 4 and we put up our + $300.00 DP box bet.
The point rolled is the five. We take-down our $600.00 lay-bet and wait for our + $300.00 DP bet's outcome....
The dice roll.....5,9,8,7.
We have recovered our - $150.00 previous loss and made a +$150.00 profit for a net profit of + $198.00 !
Thoughts ?
WB
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
WB,
Are you through with the first 20?
If so, I'll add 20 more.
Noah
Are you through with the first 20?
If so, I'll add 20 more.
Noah
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Noah.
Yep !.....done with the first 20 how about 25/50/100 or 200 .... next ?
I have just completed handicapping the first 100 pages out of Zumma. There were 12,700 rolls in the first 100 pages.
I will post the complete handicapping I did on page #100.
What a mind-blower page 100 was !
John Patrick's Ricochet System saved the gaming kitty many times on that page....
The 100% hedge did its stuff !
Thoughts ?
Jim
Yep !.....done with the first 20 how about 25/50/100 or 200 .... next ?
I have just completed handicapping the first 100 pages out of Zumma. There were 12,700 rolls in the first 100 pages.
I will post the complete handicapping I did on page #100.
What a mind-blower page 100 was !
John Patrick's Ricochet System saved the gaming kitty many times on that page....
The 100% hedge did its stuff !
Thoughts ?
Jim
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
WB,
I'll give you another 25 this time.
Want to see if anyone else wants to chime in with a betting method.
I'm imputing them the same way I did before.
3,2
6,5
3,1
6,3
1,2
3,6
4,1
5,5
6,1
3,3
3,1
3,1
5,1
3,3
4,3
6,4
4,2
6,4
4,1
5,6
6,6
4,3
3,1
6,2
5,2
I'll give you another 25 this time.
Want to see if anyone else wants to chime in with a betting method.
I'm imputing them the same way I did before.
3,2
6,5
3,1
6,3
1,2
3,6
4,1
5,5
6,1
3,3
3,1
3,1
5,1
3,3
4,3
6,4
4,2
6,4
4,1
5,6
6,6
4,3
3,1
6,2
5,2
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Wow. I hate to just talk about numbers rolled and qualifying shooters, etc. but a couple of observations are required. In the first series in your second post the 6-1 seven out followed the hard ten. Just sayin. In that second series you made your hard six pass. Do you know if you were using the hardway set on this series? It appeared to me in your first post that you were using a variant of the straight sixes on the come out. In the next series you make your pass on the ten, then continue four more tosses before sevening out. Note the two craps numbers before the seven out. I would have had my action turned off.
Wolfbyte - let's hear you plan.
Wolfbyte - let's hear you plan.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Heavy, I use a seven set on the come out and hardware set on all other rolls.
Noah
Noah
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Acpa, All........
This group of throws show only one possible set-up. The 4/10 system was activated with your 10-6-10 play.
It is rare that another 10/10 or 4/4 will be thrown after one has just been thrown. I would ' RISK ' not waiting for a ' Capping ' ( Capping is waiting for one non-betting good 4/7 or 10/7 DP play, to pass, before Lay-Betting the next 4 or 10 points ) on the next 4 or 10 point set-up.
Your Numbers :
1]....5,11,4,9,3,9,5
2]....5,7
3]....6,4,4,6
4]....10,6,10
5]....5,11,12,7
6]....4,8,7
Number #4's ....10,6,10 .... ' locks-in ' and ' activates ' the 4/10 Betting System. Number #6's ....4,8.7 ....would normally be the ' capping' trigger to lay-bet the next 4 or 10 point.
However, being a short 10 minutes ( approx. ) and only six hands long sample, I will by-pass the 'CAPPING ' play & lay-bet into the next 4 or 10 point.
The next 4/10 point sets up on hand #6. I lay-bet the point of four at my usual...+ $ 800.00 ' No 4.'
The play play's out.... 4,8,7.
I win + $400.00 net !
It would have been interesting to see the next 4/10 point plays ?
The ' 77 Craps System ' did not set-up in this very short roll file.
=================================================================================
ZUMMA'S PAGE # 100's NUMBERS :
Shooter # / Completed rolls :
# 1,498 / 12,620 rolls :
#1]....7
#2]....7
#3]....7
#4]....7
#5]....7
#6]....7
#7]....3
#8]....5,6,7
After the 2nd back-to-back seven rolls on hand #2 the ' 77 Craps System ' in locked-in. We scan-back our current, just-recorded, roll files for the longest non-appearing 4,5,9 or 10 :
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
#9 has not shown in 3 rolls
#10 has not shown in 6 rolls
#5 has not shown in 15 rolls
#4 has not shown in 23 rolls........
The #4 is our ' RICHOCHET ' 100% Pre- C/O DP bet protection-hedge-number.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
#3].... Pre point, we lay-bet $300.00 as.... ' No 4.' At the same time........... + $150.00 in the DP box. The next point is seven = NO LOSS !
#4] ... Pre-point, we set-up the same bet as above............................................................................... The point is another seven = NO LOSS !
#5].... Pre-point, we set-up the same bet............................................... ..............................................The point is another seven = NO LOSS !
#6].....Pre-point, we set-up the same bet as above................................................................................The point is another seven = NO LOSS !
#7].....pre-point, we set-up the same bet as above. The three rolls ...finally, a win ! = .................................................................. + $150.00 !
#8].... Pre-point, we know the four is still the longest ' no-show ' number...so.. " + $300.00 ...'No 4 ' and + $150.00 in the DP box.
The point rolls a five.
We take down the $300.00 hedge-protection bet and add a small + $75.00 odds bet to the $150.00 DP bet. The play completes as .....5,6,7
We win + $200.00 net..............
We have won + $350.00 total net while avoiding ....MASSIVE GAMING-KITTY-KILLING C/O SEVEN LOSSES !
Thoughts ?
WB
This group of throws show only one possible set-up. The 4/10 system was activated with your 10-6-10 play.
It is rare that another 10/10 or 4/4 will be thrown after one has just been thrown. I would ' RISK ' not waiting for a ' Capping ' ( Capping is waiting for one non-betting good 4/7 or 10/7 DP play, to pass, before Lay-Betting the next 4 or 10 points ) on the next 4 or 10 point set-up.
Your Numbers :
1]....5,11,4,9,3,9,5
2]....5,7
3]....6,4,4,6
4]....10,6,10
5]....5,11,12,7
6]....4,8,7
Number #4's ....10,6,10 .... ' locks-in ' and ' activates ' the 4/10 Betting System. Number #6's ....4,8.7 ....would normally be the ' capping' trigger to lay-bet the next 4 or 10 point.
However, being a short 10 minutes ( approx. ) and only six hands long sample, I will by-pass the 'CAPPING ' play & lay-bet into the next 4 or 10 point.
The next 4/10 point sets up on hand #6. I lay-bet the point of four at my usual...+ $ 800.00 ' No 4.'
The play play's out.... 4,8,7.
I win + $400.00 net !
It would have been interesting to see the next 4/10 point plays ?
The ' 77 Craps System ' did not set-up in this very short roll file.
=================================================================================
ZUMMA'S PAGE # 100's NUMBERS :
Shooter # / Completed rolls :
# 1,498 / 12,620 rolls :
#1]....7
#2]....7
#3]....7
#4]....7
#5]....7
#6]....7
#7]....3
#8]....5,6,7
After the 2nd back-to-back seven rolls on hand #2 the ' 77 Craps System ' in locked-in. We scan-back our current, just-recorded, roll files for the longest non-appearing 4,5,9 or 10 :
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
#9 has not shown in 3 rolls
#10 has not shown in 6 rolls
#5 has not shown in 15 rolls
#4 has not shown in 23 rolls........
The #4 is our ' RICHOCHET ' 100% Pre- C/O DP bet protection-hedge-number.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
#3].... Pre point, we lay-bet $300.00 as.... ' No 4.' At the same time........... + $150.00 in the DP box. The next point is seven = NO LOSS !
#4] ... Pre-point, we set-up the same bet as above............................................................................... The point is another seven = NO LOSS !
#5].... Pre-point, we set-up the same bet............................................... ..............................................The point is another seven = NO LOSS !
#6].....Pre-point, we set-up the same bet as above................................................................................The point is another seven = NO LOSS !
#7].....pre-point, we set-up the same bet as above. The three rolls ...finally, a win ! = .................................................................. + $150.00 !
#8].... Pre-point, we know the four is still the longest ' no-show ' number...so.. " + $300.00 ...'No 4 ' and + $150.00 in the DP box.
The point rolls a five.
We take down the $300.00 hedge-protection bet and add a small + $75.00 odds bet to the $150.00 DP bet. The play completes as .....5,6,7
We win + $200.00 net..............
We have won + $350.00 total net while avoiding ....MASSIVE GAMING-KITTY-KILLING C/O SEVEN LOSSES !
Thoughts ?
WB
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Here's another 28.
6,1
4,1
2,2
1,2
5,2
5,4
6,4
6,2
3,3
4,2
4,1
5,4
4,3
4,3
3,1
5,1
6,2
5,6
6,5
5,2
4,1
2,2
3,2
1,1
6,6
6,6
6,2
5,2
Guess you are the only one using them!
Noah
6,1
4,1
2,2
1,2
5,2
5,4
6,4
6,2
3,3
4,2
4,1
5,4
4,3
4,3
3,1
5,1
6,2
5,6
6,5
5,2
4,1
2,2
3,2
1,1
6,6
6,6
6,2
5,2
Guess you are the only one using them!
Noah
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Well, I continue to be amused at the seven pre-cursors. First hand - 1-2 then seven out. Next hand - 6-5, 5-6, then seven out. Third hand - aces - twelve - twelve (oh, man. I just hit a big one there) six-two, then seven out. Just sayin' . . .
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Noah, All.......
Your new numbers :
1]......7
2]......5437
3]......9106659
4]......7
5]......7
6]......46811117
7]......5452121287
Very interesting that the " 4/10 CRAPS SYSTEM " did NOT manifest a play.
However, the " 77 CRAPS SYSTEM " did. Plays #4 and #5 ( seven's back-to-back ) sets up the ' 77 ' system.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
A scan-back, of the just rolled numbers :
9 showed 3 rolls ago...
5 showed 4 rolls ago...
10 showed 7 rolls ago...
4 showed 11 rolls ago...
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The ' 4 ' is our 100% ' RICOCHET ' pre- C/O protection number.
We lay-bet the ' NO 4 ' for $300.00 and at the same time, we load + $150.00 into the DP box.
The C/O point is a four. We lose our RICOCHET bet of $300.00 but the $150.00 DP box-bet travels to the four.
We know the odds are now in our corner because the odds are 2/1 that the four will 7-out.....so...we take full- DP-table-odds of $900.00 on our $150.00 DP bet.....
This same set-up happened at Harraha's Ricon, in SD, on my last trip. I took full odds of $900.00 and I added-on an additional lay-bet for.... $300.00.
I WON IT !
The play plays out.... 46811117.
We lost $300.00 on this play but we made it all back with the + $150.00 DP box bet win added to the + $450.00 odds bet win.... for a net of + $ 300.00 on this ....' 77 Craps System ' play.
No other play set-up on your numbers. Your numbers would have resulted in a + $110.00 net-win playing a $50.00 base-unit-betting-game using Silverthorne's Neural System :
-50
+80
-50
-80
-130
+210
+130
Interesting....win 3 bets ( +42% win-rate ) and lose 4 bets ( - 57 % loss-rate ) and still we walked away with a + $110.00 profit......sweet !
Thoughts ?
WB
Your new numbers :
1]......7
2]......5437
3]......9106659
4]......7
5]......7
6]......46811117
7]......5452121287
Very interesting that the " 4/10 CRAPS SYSTEM " did NOT manifest a play.
However, the " 77 CRAPS SYSTEM " did. Plays #4 and #5 ( seven's back-to-back ) sets up the ' 77 ' system.
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
A scan-back, of the just rolled numbers :
9 showed 3 rolls ago...
5 showed 4 rolls ago...
10 showed 7 rolls ago...
4 showed 11 rolls ago...
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The ' 4 ' is our 100% ' RICOCHET ' pre- C/O protection number.
We lay-bet the ' NO 4 ' for $300.00 and at the same time, we load + $150.00 into the DP box.
The C/O point is a four. We lose our RICOCHET bet of $300.00 but the $150.00 DP box-bet travels to the four.
We know the odds are now in our corner because the odds are 2/1 that the four will 7-out.....so...we take full- DP-table-odds of $900.00 on our $150.00 DP bet.....
This same set-up happened at Harraha's Ricon, in SD, on my last trip. I took full odds of $900.00 and I added-on an additional lay-bet for.... $300.00.
I WON IT !
The play plays out.... 46811117.
We lost $300.00 on this play but we made it all back with the + $150.00 DP box bet win added to the + $450.00 odds bet win.... for a net of + $ 300.00 on this ....' 77 Craps System ' play.
No other play set-up on your numbers. Your numbers would have resulted in a + $110.00 net-win playing a $50.00 base-unit-betting-game using Silverthorne's Neural System :
-50
+80
-50
-80
-130
+210
+130
Interesting....win 3 bets ( +42% win-rate ) and lose 4 bets ( - 57 % loss-rate ) and still we walked away with a + $110.00 profit......sweet !
Thoughts ?
WB
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
WB,
What would have been your next move, had the four rolled resulting in a loss of the bet?
I am not gonna say that I understand this, but it is interesting.
Memo
What would have been your next move, had the four rolled resulting in a loss of the bet?
I am not gonna say that I understand this, but it is interesting.
Memo
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
I'm with you, Memo. My mind is not wired for this stuff. Sort of like the difference in a crossword puzzle and a sudoko puzzle. I'm the crossword guy. My wife is the sudoko girl. This morphed-up system might have made sense to me twenty years ago, but I've burned out a few too many receptors through the years. Now my synapses are backfiring. In east Texas we call that a brain fart. Turn me off and hop the sevens. There. I said it.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
- Heavy
- Heavy
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Memo, All.......
I can understand your stand-offish-ness. This really is ..." outside-the-standard-box "... way of looking at craps.
To answer your question... " What would you do if the point had come-back and wiped-out your DP & odds bets ? "
Memo, in thousands of back-tested rolls and lots of trial losses, I found by backing-up and re-running my losses using new .... what-if-I-ran-it-this-way ...ideas, I came up with a step-over-my-losses recovery system.
THERE WAS NO FUDGING THE NUMBERS TO FIT THE SYSTEM. I could not alter the up-coming 35,000 rolls from the Four Queens and the Golden Nugget Casino's, in DT Vegas.
Those back-to-back rolls are recorded in the Zumma Craps Systems Testing Book.
I have only lightly used the 14,000 rolls out of the craps system testing book...." 72 Hour At The Crap Table. "
Last night, after reading your post, I went back to page #1 in Zumma's book and lead and paper wrote down each and every 4/10 System set-up and its outcome/results.
To say the least, the 4/10 System sailed through 12,500 back-to-back rolls ( I stopped testing at that point due to needing sleep ) and 900 back-to-back craps shooters.... slicker than cold-water-on-the-naked-skin-of-a-water-well-drillers-butt !
Off to the 70-foot indoor heated pool before the gym loads-up with morning kindred trolls......
WB-
I can understand your stand-offish-ness. This really is ..." outside-the-standard-box "... way of looking at craps.
To answer your question... " What would you do if the point had come-back and wiped-out your DP & odds bets ? "
Memo, in thousands of back-tested rolls and lots of trial losses, I found by backing-up and re-running my losses using new .... what-if-I-ran-it-this-way ...ideas, I came up with a step-over-my-losses recovery system.
THERE WAS NO FUDGING THE NUMBERS TO FIT THE SYSTEM. I could not alter the up-coming 35,000 rolls from the Four Queens and the Golden Nugget Casino's, in DT Vegas.
Those back-to-back rolls are recorded in the Zumma Craps Systems Testing Book.
I have only lightly used the 14,000 rolls out of the craps system testing book...." 72 Hour At The Crap Table. "
Last night, after reading your post, I went back to page #1 in Zumma's book and lead and paper wrote down each and every 4/10 System set-up and its outcome/results.
To say the least, the 4/10 System sailed through 12,500 back-to-back rolls ( I stopped testing at that point due to needing sleep ) and 900 back-to-back craps shooters.... slicker than cold-water-on-the-naked-skin-of-a-water-well-drillers-butt !
Off to the 70-foot indoor heated pool before the gym loads-up with morning kindred trolls......
WB-
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
WB,WOLFBYTE wrote:Memo, All.......
Memo, in thousands of back-tested rolls and lots of trial losses, I found by backing-up and re-running my losses using new .... what-if-I-ran-it-this-way ...ideas, I came up with a step-over-my-losses recovery system.
WB-
I have sincere questions, this is not a criticism or an attack. I am sorry to have to preface, but it may sound that way.
Are you saying that since you have back tested and checked to infinity and beyond...
You do not worry about such things as loosing that bet (the one in question). You do not believe it will loose, or do you have a recovery system in case it does. I have trouble following your logic as stated so I must ask specific questions. Many thanks to Noah for putting this in bite sized portions for digestion.
I still do not quite understand when and where you start the 4/10. I think the 777 is when you see three sevens in a row...?
Memo
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Just as a thought WB, you might consider taking all of those recorded rolls and reseeding the numbers so that they appear in the same proportion but randomly. Hopefully that makes sense. A few years ago I had a fellow take a couple of 720 roll books of mine and reseed them to infinity for testing purposes. The book of rolls showed me with an SRR in the mid-sevens. Every betting strategy we ran against those rolls failed after a couple of thousand decisions. Admittedly, we did not do any "recovery" mode betting. Likewise, there was no "lose three in a row - time to go" option. We simply bet the same strategy on every decision. I've come to the conclusion that you cannot bet every decision and win over the long haul. You just have to figure out which decisions to bet.
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Mad Professor
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Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
I'm probably reading H's comments wrong here, so I'm looking for confirmation.
Are you saying that with an SRR-rate in the mid-7's; no pre-set betting-method will beat it?
MP
Are you saying that with an SRR-rate in the mid-7's; no pre-set betting-method will beat it?
MP
Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
Well, I ran sims through Wincraps - mid sevens with the numbers reseeded randomly but with the same proportional mix - no regressions or pressure - all bets stayed at their initial level - and no long run wins. Now, the math guys will tell you that pretty much any sane betting strategy will win over the long run with that sort of an edge. I remain unconvinced.
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Mad Professor
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Re: Rolls for testing a betting system.
SRR-rate alone only indicates if influence is present; it doesn't indicate where the actual influence is sourced from.
Your reseeding test is interesting if all roll-data was collected using the same dice-set (ie, you didn't mix apples and antelopes by using one Horn-centric 7-heavy come-out set vs. a completely different Place-centric point-cycle 7-avoidance set)...which would probably invalidate the reseeding approach.
However, even if that were the case, I'm willing to take a look at it.
H, if you want to post a summary of each number-appearance for a couple of your 720-roll books (ie, 2 showed __%, 3 showed __%, 7 showed 13.33% or thereabouts, 8 showed __%, ect.); I would be more than pleased to come up with at least one, if not several no-press, no-regress, always-working betting-methods that would profitably pass that "reseed to infinity and beyond" test at 10,000 rolls, 100,000 rolls, 1m rolls, and even out to 1b rolls.
Failing which, everyone would get to see if my math skills are really as weak as you suggest they are.
MP
Your reseeding test is interesting if all roll-data was collected using the same dice-set (ie, you didn't mix apples and antelopes by using one Horn-centric 7-heavy come-out set vs. a completely different Place-centric point-cycle 7-avoidance set)...which would probably invalidate the reseeding approach.
However, even if that were the case, I'm willing to take a look at it.
H, if you want to post a summary of each number-appearance for a couple of your 720-roll books (ie, 2 showed __%, 3 showed __%, 7 showed 13.33% or thereabouts, 8 showed __%, ect.); I would be more than pleased to come up with at least one, if not several no-press, no-regress, always-working betting-methods that would profitably pass that "reseed to infinity and beyond" test at 10,000 rolls, 100,000 rolls, 1m rolls, and even out to 1b rolls.
Failing which, everyone would get to see if my math skills are really as weak as you suggest they are.
MP