A new stickman steps in... do you hop the 7's?

[dork]

I know, I know... "it's just superstition"...

I was at the table the other day. Four times I felt bad juju as the stick changed; I resisted the urge to throw out $30 and holler "7's hopping". Three times, the 7 came up. I had no money on the table, I was just waiting my turn at the dice. Someone said that doing what I contemplated was bad form--akin to cashing in in the middle of a hand (kinda). What held me back?--I didn't like the idea having to 'celebrate' amongst a table of deflated winners-on-the-cusp turned losers. Nevertheless, the 7 killed 'em three out of the four times; the fourth time a 12 was rolled.

How would you feel if you were the shooter faced with someone like me (no money at stake except the hops), or have you bet the 7-hop in the middle of a roll yourself?

[realtime]

I could care less where YOU play your money when I am shooting. In fact I probably wouldn't even notice you hopping the sevens or any other number(s).....well unless you are a twenty something year old blonde with your assets hanging over the rail!!

[Mad Professor]

Hi Dork,

If you are absolutely convinced that the 7 shows up ~75% of the time when a stick-change happens, as opposed to its randomly-expected rate of 16.67%; then you should wager far more than the $30 you were going to wager on the Hopping-7's.

In other words, if you 'know' you have a ~450% edge over expectation; then make no apology...and don't just bet a prize-cow or two...bet the entire farm.

You'll find out REAL SOON whether you are betting on fact or superstition.

Chances are though, you will be quite disappointed with the results.


MP

[heavy]

Hmmm. Looks like the forum did it's thing and my response to this post disappeared overnight. Weird. Anyway, here are my thoughts. I prefer NOT to hear anyone hopping the sevens when I have the dice. I try to stay focused on the task at hand and find it distracting. I'm less bothered by "hopping the reds" for some reason. Hinduman just about drove me crazy in Biloxi with his sevens hop bets - all part of a hedge strategy he was playing. I mentioned it to him so he switched to saying "$3 my bet." Of course, the stickman was slow on the uptake so I ended up explaining to the stick that HM wanted to hop the sevens. Crazy. I'll agree with MP. If you REALLY believe you have an edge on this wager you should bet more. My approach, however, would be something like $41 no four - or $410 no four. Of course, I'll plead guilty to hopping the sevens on a randy a time or two - but usually it was when I was playing the Don'ts.

[dork]

Hi Dork,

If you are absolutely convinced that the 7 shows up ~75% of the time when a stick-change happens, as opposed to its randomly-expected rate of 16.67%; then you should wager far more than the $30 you were going to wager on the Hopping-7's.

In other words, if you 'know' you have a ~450% edge over expectation; then make no apology...and don't just bet a prize-cow or two...bet the entire farm.

You'll find out REAL SOON whether you are betting on fact or superstition.

Chances are though, you will be quite disappointed with the results.


MP

Welllll, that's why I was only willin' to risk $30 each time... prolly by the 3rd time I felt the juju, if no 7 had showed on the first two bets, I'm sure I'd feel that the $60 sting would almost be enough to convince me that superstition is only that. Ain't no way I ever feel like I'm "betting on fact" when I'm at the casino. (I take that back. When I'm there, the mantra I remember is, "when you're losing, remember... that's why the casino is here. [and to take it easy.]" And THAT'S a fact. )

[dork]

... I prefer NOT to hear anyone hopping the sevens when I have the dice. ... Of course, I'll plead guilty to hopping the sevens on a randy a time or two - ...

Ahhh.... "permission granted". Thanks, Heavy. I'll blame you when it doesn't come in.

[CrapsForever]

Listen to yourself, follow your heart and your brain! You don't need ANYONE telling you what happens to YOU at the tables....

[Mad Professor]

Hi CrapsForever,

I must have misread what Dork was trying to convey. When he wrote...

I was at the table the other day. Four times I felt bad juju as the stick changed; I resisted the urge to throw out $30 and holler "7's hopping". Three times, the 7 came up. I had no money on the table, I was just waiting my turn at the dice.

...I somehow took that to mean that he himself WASN'T shooting and that random-rollers were tossing the dice. Your reply assumes that he was shooting when he made his "The-dice-7-out-75%-of-the-time-on-a-stick-change" observations.

I guess there is some confusion about the difference between random-outcomes and dice-influenced outcomes.

~For example, if Heavy were to observe that he often throws a bunch of closely-grouped Horn-numbers, and so when he 'sees-a-Horn-he-bets-a-Horn'; I would have NO PROBLEM WHATSOEVER following that advice, because derandomized outcomes are at play.

~On the other hand, were someone to suggest that we should bet the Horn after every randomly-tossed Horn-outcome; then I can tell you with a high degree of absolute certainty that a gambler following that betting-routine would soon find himself DEEPLY in the red.

If our friend Dork was to say that when he himself is shooting, he tosses a 7 about 75% during a stick-change; then as a dice-influencer, that idea might hold some bettable-merit simply because of how he allowed the stick-change to affect his de-randomized outcomes (though not in a way that he wanted it to).

In that case, hopping-the-Reds for $3, $30, $300, or even $3000 (if limits permitted, and he was sufficiently bankrolled to exploit that 450% advantage); would be an absolutely GREAT idea.

But to bet it on every stick-change when a random-roller is shooting, is a direct route to ever-deeper losses. I know I am pretty much alone on this; but I'm okay with that.


MP

[CrapsForever]

Salutations MP,

There are certain events that I personally notice when I am shooting the Dice and other events that happen regardless of who is shooting on the Craps table that I am on...... I have posted ad-nauseum about these events that occur at the Craps table when I'm there.

I always say, the weirdest least explainable things happen on a Craps table!

[heavy]

Welllll, that's why I was only willin' to risk $30 each time... prolly by the 3rd time I felt the juju, if no 7 had showed on the first two bets, I'm sure I'd feel that the $60 sting would almost be enough to convince me that superstition is only that. Ain't no way I ever feel like I'm "betting on fact" when I'm at the casino. (I take that back. When I'm there, the mantra I remember is, "when you're losing, remember... that's why the casino is here. [and to take it easy.]" And THAT'S a fact.

So here's your play if you believe what you're seeing. First bet - 3 way sevens hop for $15 total - $5 each way. If you win that bet you'll take $75 and down. Then on the NEXT stick change you bet $45 sevens hop - $15 each way. You'll have recouped your initial wager plus $30 profit in the rack - and you're now betting "won money" to pop the casino for $225 and down. Hey, that means you have $300 in winnings racked. REALLY have faith in the play. Next stick change push it all out there - $300 sevens hop. Pays $1500 and down. Essentially your risking that original $15 you pushed out to win $1500. A 100 - 1 pay off.

[Golfer]

Excuse me.

Did someone say hop the 7's?

H, if I may, it is $1600 and down. Even the great ones.....like the Miami Heat, make a mistake once in awhile..........especially in Chicago.

Anyway, Dork, if you feel it toss it out. I would suggest the phrase, "Turn the Red". A low key comment that only a few will translate properly so not too many cages will be rattled..

These "gut feeling" bet types are not based in any form of science. However, they can ring true.........at times. I can hear Irish grinding his teeth after reading that.

As I have said many times over the years, Hop Bets are the crack cocaine of craps. They will take you down if you let them. However, careful, disciplined use can prove satisfying and profitable.

Oh Heavy, you should have flung a couple at Hinduman's chest just as a "how ya doing" gesture. I am sure he would have got the message. However, if he took his Desert Inn golf hat and turned the bill around I would have yelled, "Color" and ran to the Bar.

In closing, when in doubt...........Turn the RED !!!!


Golfer

[Dylanfreake]

All ya gotta do is mention "Hoppin` Sevens" and Golfer comes out of hibernation.

[hinduman]

Golfer Buddy! Please, PLease let me up!!! Heavy doesn't have to tell me twice. I am just so good at playing my "Absent Minded Professor" role that I can be a pain at times. But I AM lovable!!! (Wink!).

Hinduman