Post
by SHOOTITALL » Tue Apr 02, 2013 1:38 am
I am sure Heavy will not mind me posting it. If he does, I will not buy his lunch or the fried pies. sia
Heavy's Heat Seeking Strategy
The last round of trip reports has stimulated a lot of interest in my Heat Seeking Craps Strategy. As a result, I’ve decided post a thumbnail version of the strategy here on the forum. The complete strategy is in Heavy's Play Book - available here on the site.
Following the Trend: What are your chances of winning at the craps table in a fair game? Even if you are a perfect player with rock-ribbed discipline and played the most conservative of bets, you still have to buck the minimum house edge of 1.41%. But even if there were no house edge your chances in a random game would be no better than 50/50.
The only way to really win at any random game is to take advantage of the trend. Trends are streaks or identifiable patterns. In craps the tables will be trending toward hot or cold perhaps thirty percent of the time. They may actually be hot or cold for another ten percent of the time. The other sixty percent of the time the trend may be choppy with decisions hopping back and forth, both ways. The key to winning is protecting your bankroll during those choppy times, while positioning yourself to take advantage of the next trend.
There are two philosophies regarding betting and trends. The first school of thought says buck the trend. In other words, always bet opposite of the last decision. This might not be a bad move on a choppy table. The second school of thought says follow the trend. When seeking out a hot shooter this is the correct way to play. Let the dice lead the way - and you follow.
The most conservative of betting strategies rely strictly on flat betting either the Pass or Don’t Pass, and the Come or Don’t Come. Many players utilize these bets to follow the trend, betting the same way as the last decision of the dice - or in some instances betting the decision before the last decision. Often times they will play a progression strategy such as the Paroli or the Fibonacci. Both are good ways to play. But the player has no choice in the numbers when he plays the Line or Come/Don’t Come bets. He is truly at the mercy of the dice.
Next to flat betting, the most conservative wager on the craps layout is the Place bet on the six or eight. The house edge on these wagers is just one tenth of one percent higher than on the flat bet. However, in this case the player has his choice of two very good numbers.
The problem with place betting is that it immediately places money at risk. A quick point-seven can be devastating to the player’s bankroll. Therefore, the player should chart the tables and look for certain indicators before placing money at risk. And once the player decides to place money in action he should follow the old adage, “Don’t test the depth of the water with both feet.”
Advantages of the Heat Seeking Craps Strategy: The Axis Power Heat Seeking Craps Strategy offers many player advantages. First of all, it positions the player to score a substantial win with very little downside risk. When played properly the player will never have more than three “at-risk” betting units per hand. Since there is little money at risk the minimum bankroll required to play is relatively small - as little as $150 in a $5 game. And unlike systems that require you to count the number of tosses before entering the game, you do not have to stand idly by the table. You do not have to write anything down or perform any complex mathematical calculations in your mind. You simply watch for certain entry keys and play by a specific set of simple rules.
Does this mean you will win at every session? No. Again, at best you have less than a 50/50 chance of winning in a random game. Long, hot rolls are few and far between. However, by playing a safe, conservative strategy you can find the hot shooters and profit from them. The strategy has a built-in money management feature that helps position you for unlimited winnings while minimizing losses.
Hot Shooter Indicators: While charting the tables you will be looking for positive signs that indicate the table trend may be heating up. Here are the primary Hot Shooter Indicators you are looking for:
1. Any inside number - the 5, 6, 8, or 9 - repeats during a shooter’s hand.
2. Multiple hardway numbers roll during a shooter’s hand.
3. The shooter makes his first pass and gets beyond roll three of his second hand.
4. The shooter throws consecutive sevens on the come out roll.
5. The shooter throws consecutive elevens on the come out roll.
6. The shooter places and wins any one-roll proposition or hop bet.
7. The shooter takes the time to carefully pre-set the dice and executes a
gentle consistent controlled toss.
Negative Indicators: Just as there are indicators marking the correct time to enter the game, there are indicators that tell you not to enter the game, or if you are already in the game to place no further action until you see another Positive Indicator. Negative Indicators include:
1. The shooter sevens out without making his Pass.
2. The shooter throws a craps number on his come out roll (unless he had
placed prop action on that particular craps number - in which case this is a
Positive Indicator.)
3. You lose a come bet to a 2, 3, or 12 craps.
4. One of your come bets travels to the 4 or 10.
5. A casino employee cautions the shooter for any reason.
We'll look at the play itself on the continuation of this post.
Your craps plan? The dice gods laughed.
