What's the Point in Lay Betting?

[heavy]

Since the topic of Lay betting versus DP/DC betting has attracted some interest on Dice Coach's "experts speak" thread, I thought I'd take a minute and focus specifically on the Lay Bet and ask the question - what the heck is the point?

Lay bets, as I'm sure most of you know, are exactly the opposite of Buy bets. You can Buy the Four for $20 plus $1 vig and win $40. Or you can Lay the Four for $40 plus the $1 vig and win $20. Okay, you win $39 and $19 net because of the juice, but you get the idea.

The house doesn't really care which way you wager - as long as they get their commission. But a lot of players dislike betting "more" to win "less," which gets us to what I believe is the most common use of the Lay bet - as a hedge to get a flat bet established. After all, a $40 Don't Come bet that wins pays you $40 - not $20. The problem is getting that $40 DC bet established without getting whacked by the seven or eleven. Most folks who use something like a $41 No Four to hedge a $20 DC bet don't worry so much about the eleven - it's the seven that kills you most of the time. So you'll see them combine that $41 lay bet with a $20 DP or DC, and once the DP/DC is established they take down the 41 Lay bet and the DC becomes their dominant point.

Let's step up to the table in Heavy's Perfect World Casino and see if we can draw an example for you that even the famous gaming author could understand. Come out roll - dice are about to go out. You drop $20 on the DP and toss $41 on the table and tell the dealer "$41 No Four." He sets he Lay bet up. The shooter tosses the seven. You lose $20 on the DP but win net $19 for the $41 No Four. You re-set your $20 DP and the shooter tosses again - five is the point. Now you take down the $41 No Four and you have $20 established on the five that's going to pay you even money if and when the shooter sevens out. Simple hedge betting.

Let's say you get to the table and there's already a point established and you'd like to get some action on the Don'ts. You can still lay $41 against the four or ten to hedge a $20 DC just like we did above. Or, you might want to take another approach - like laying against the point. Let's say the point is still Five. You toss $31 on the table and tell the dealer you'd like to Lay $31 No Five. Why? The odds are roughly 3 to 2 against the shooter making his pass so this isn't a bad bet. And your exposure is less than when laying the four or ten - you save $10 on the Lay. So, we'll Lay $31 No Five and play $20 on the DC. Next toss the shooter rolls the six and your DC travels to the six. Take your $31 Lay bet against the five down and the six becomes your primary Don't bet.

But wait a minute. The six is a pretty easy number to repeat, right? Do you really WANT a Don't bet on the six? The answer is - absolutely. You're going to win that bet five out of six times. But if you're really concerned about the possibility of LOSING that bet you can always use a PLACE bet as a hedge against the number repeating. Place the six for $18. Now you're guaranteed at least a $1 win regardless of what happens with the six. A buck is a buck is a buck.

Are their people out there who just like Lay betting and will use them like yours truly uses Buy bets? Sure. Am I one of those people? Absolutely not. Put me in the "don't like risking more to win less" category.

Some people do confuse Laying Odds with Lay Betting. They are two completely different animals. Laying odds is adding Free Odds to your Don't Pass or Don't Come bet. It's just the opposite of the Free Odds bet on the right side. For example, instead of taking $10 odds to win $12 on the six or eight come bets - you'd lay $12 odds to win $10 on the don't come bets on the six or eight. For those of you who are still learning the Don'ts - here's a number that will work for any Free Odds lay bet you wish to make. Once your DP or DC is established you Lay $30 odds. That will pay $15 on the four or ten, $20 on the five or nine, or $25 on the six or eight and will be correct bet on a $5 3/4/5x odds game.

Questions? Thoughts? Do you use Lay bets on a regular basis? If so, how do you use them? War stories welcome.

[wudged]

The six is a pretty easy number to repeat, right? Do you really WANT a Don't bet on the six? The answer is - absolutely. You're going to win that bet five out of six times.

Just to clarify so nobody misunderstands, you'll actually win it 6 out of 11 times, but it pays five to six.

For those of you who are still learning the Don'ts - here's a number that will work for any Free Odds lay bet you wish to make. Once your DP or DC is established you Lay $30 odds.

For the smaller bankrolled players, you can lay anything divisible by $6 regardless of what the point is. However, I strongly recommend becoming familiar with the payouts as dealers often and regularly miscalculate it. Heck, they even miscalculate the flat portion pretty consistently.

As Heavy mentioned, Lay Odds pay exactly opposite how Pass Line Odds work - so if you want to win $10, figure out how much you would be paid if you put $10 as Pass Line Odds. ($12 on 6/8, $15 on 5/9, $20 on 4/10) This is how much you should put as Lay Odds.

In addition to knowing the payouts, you must also pay attention that your DCs travel properly, are paid on a first roll 2/3, not collected on a first roll 12, and are paid on a come-out 7. DCs, in my opinion, are the biggest source of dealer mistakes, and quite frequently you will find them to benefit you as well (missed collection on a first roll 11 or a repeater on the come-out, paid on a pass line winner, etc.)

Having said all that, one of my favorite plays is to bet the pass line then lay the 5 and/or 9. Then I set the straight sixes (double pitched to show 7s) What I like about this play is that this set has 0 5s and 9s on axis (in fact, they are the only numbers you can lay with 0 combinations on-axis, regardless of dice set [while still using an all-7s set.]) Also, while it has a higher edge than the Lay 4/10, I feel the 4/10 are a bit too expensive if you knock yourself off of it.

[heavy]

... you'll actually win it 6 out of 11 times...

Good catch, Wudged.

Laying against the five and nine on the come out using the double-pitched straight sixes is a strategy we've touted for years - I'm talking about all the way back to the late 90's. It's a pretty smart play if you can keep both dice on axis the majority of the time.

[$5Bill]

$31 No 5 Parley
_____________

When I see someone roll a seven on come out, Some times I will lay $31 no 5. I could do the 9 but I just stay with the 5 unless he has a history of rolling 5's. But It’s your choice. How many times have you seen a roller make more than one 7 on the come-out? I am hoping that he will make another 7. Then I parley the bet until he makes his point. Then I “TAKE IT DOWN.” This play works even better if you can find a place that only charges a vig on a win. For Example; $30 to $45 to $75 to $123 to $204. You get the Idea.

The main reason I like this play rather than hopping the sevens is that once the point is established, I can take down my bet and not lose any money, unless he knocks me off my 5. And it does happen. If you’re the shooter and can make a lot of 7's and stay away from the 5, so much the better. .(Straight 6's set)

If you have the bankroll, You could start at a higher level. That’s why I made the chart go up this high

Bet+Vig__________Payoff______Profit
$30+1(31) ________=$20 _____-$1=$19
$45+1($46)________=$30_____-$1=$29
$75+2($77)________=$50_____-$2=$48
$120+4($124)______=$80_____-$4=$76
$195+6($201)______=$130____-$6=$124
$315+10($325)_____=$210____-$10=$200
$525+17($542)_____=$350____-$17=$333
$825+27($852)_____=$550____-$27=$523
$1350+45($1395)___=$900____-$45=$855
$2250+75($2325)___=$1500___-$75=$1425
$3750+125($3875)__=$2500___-$125=$2375
$6000+200(6200)___=$4000___-$200=$3800

$5Bill

[audionut]

are setting the dice for straight sixes like this:

...| ...
...| ...

or like this
. . | . .
. . | . .
. . | . .

???

[bobthetree]

The top way is straight sixes, the sets of pips all make straight lines

The bottom way is parallel sixes, the set of pips make parallel lines.

[wudged]

The top one; the pips from both dice form 2 straight lines, or the area between the pips forms a single straight line. You should have hard 10 and hard 4, with 3 and 4 on-axis.

The bottom one is parallel sixes.

[heavy]

Here you go. Top left (3/4/3/4) is the straight sixes. the 3/4/3/4 represents the lateral faces of the dice. The parallel sixes is top middle -- 5.2.5.2.

[Ugocat]

Hello Heavy, either I'm not understanding (most likely) or my casino gives a better deal on lay bets. Ex. if I lay $31 no 5 and win, they keep the $1 and give me back $50. I just think of it as $31 to win $20. $41 no 4 and $25 no 6 also to win $20. I'm I missing something or I'm I just confused? Thanks for your help. Ugocat

[Maddog]

Ugocat, I believe that you are fine and have it correct. The difference, if I'm reading your description correctly, is that what you are describing is bringing down the Lay-Bet on the win. So a $31 Lay-Bet on the 5, the 7 rolls and you win, you are paid $20, and get your $30 back if you are bringing the bet down (so $50 total, just like you outline). But most of the time we think in terms of leaving the bet up and working. So in that example you are paid the $20, but need to pay the upfront vig on the "new" re-booked Lay-bet. So you can either drop them another dollar to book the "new" $30 No-Five, or they can take it from the winnings and pay you $19.

Don't forget, if you bring down the Lay-Bet before it is decided, they owe you the $1 back also. In other words if you bring down a $30 No-Five, they should give you $31. Same goes for Buy-Bets that are charged the vig up-front. If, for example, you are bringing down your Across action which includes a $25 Buy on the 4 and 10 each, be sure you are getting $52 back.

What makes an upfront vig so nasty is what happens when you lose the bet.

You lose a $30 No-Five (i.e. the 5 rolls) and the vig is up-front, you lose $31. If the vig is collected on the win instead, then if that 5 rolls and you lose the No-Five, you lose $30.

Again, same with Buy-Bets. A Buy 4 with the vig up front that loses to a 7, you lose $26. If the vig is on the win, then that seven costs you $25 instead.

[Ugocat]

Thanks Maddog, now I've got it. Good explanation.

[London Shooter]

Three years in the making?

[flextimeLV]

We don't all read as fast as Britons, Sir Shooter.

Tennessee schooled

[Moe Bettor]

To answer Heavy's question about using lay bets: After charting on a random shooter and the numbers look good for it..I will wait until the shooter throws an outside number, then lay it. My general rule is four or more rolls in. This is on top of the numbers I already have from DC and DP.

[heavy]

I am coming to believe that bypassing the Come Out, then Laying the point plus placing the six and eight for one hit and down (on the six and eight - then wait for a decision on the Lay) is about as good of a play as you'll find if you want to grind out consistent wins. Think I'll make that play when I'm on the road in Wisconsin next week.

[Moe Bettor]

Yeah. That's an interesting play. If the come out is a 6 or 8..what then? And if the placed 6 and 8 don't hit for two rolls take them down? Money not making money. I assume here we are talking about a random shooter.

[flextimeLV]

Looking forward to Heavy's answer. How much on the 6 and 8, assuming the minimum lay (25,31,41) ?

[Cap-n_Lou]

I like laying the 4/10 and/or the 5/9 on the come out where it seems like a lot of 7s are being rolled (or even where it doesn't seem that way) because it allows me to play the dark side without any negative vibe from the majority (read: pass line only) of players. If the table is cold especially it has worked well for me. I don't do it all the time because of the vig, but if you can find a casino that doesn't make you pay up front it's not a bad deal to me.

[Dark Side]

I am coming to believe that bypassing the Come Out, then Laying the point plus placing the six and eight for one hit and down (on the six and eight - then wait for a decision on the Lay) is about as good of a play as you'll find if you want to grind out consistent wins. Think I'll make that play when I'm on the road in Wisconsin next week.

Interesting. Would you mind giving an example of a lay bet and the six and eight bet amounts? I'm a firm believer in laying the point and not just to by pass the DP come out nightmare. Certain shooters have a tendency to hit certain numbers on a consistent basis, then there is the hot number of the day. This allows an opportunity to turn down a bet without risk on the come out. I'm interested in how you plan on playing the six and eight, particularly the place bet amount as it relates to the lay.

DS

[mssthis1]

$30.00 increments works for all lay bets and the six and eight but you sacrifice a little extra vig at $30.00 on the 4 and 10. At joints which don't charge the vig up front I feel it's a very good play. Similar to SIA's one hit can't miss without the exposure to those who try to toss naturals on the comeout who you have no history on.