The Five Best Bets at Craps

[heavy]

Everyone thinks that their betting strategy is the best, and they are probably correct at certain times. But over a lifetime of play, given an adequate bankroll, there are definitely bets that out-perform others and should be part of your arsenal. Let's start at the top of the list.

1. Free Odds. This wager is so strong that it's not even displayed on the layout. But taking odds on the right side and laying odds on the don'ts is smart play. Does that mean you have to take or lay 100X odds if it's available? Of course not. When you get up above around 10X odds there's not a lot of advantage to be gained by betting more - at least on a percentage basis. And taking or laying odds can increase short-run volatility. But over the long run you'll be dollars ahead taking advantage of the free odds bet. Why? Because free odds are paid off at correct odds, which means the only advantage the casino has over the wager come from the underlying flat bet. Some will argue against laying odds, saying that it doesn't make sense to risk more money to win less. For example, you'd lay $100 odds on the four and ten to win $50 (less the commission). On the other hand, that same player might think nothing of risking $110 inside to win $35 on the next roll of the dice. Think about it. Free odds - the best bet on the table.

2. Don't Pass - Don't Come. Let's face it. More shooters seven out without making a pass. In fact, roughly two out of three shooters won't make a pass. They establish a point, roll a couple of numbers, then seven out. That's the nature of the game. So why isn't everyone playing the Don'ts? Well, for one thing, most craps players are eternal optimists. They live for the long roll, dream of the hot hand. Also, there's the problem of getting a Don't bet established. You have to buck the seven and the eleven. Of course, there are hedge strategies you can utilize to help negate those numbers, but over the long run you're better off forgetting about hedges and just playing straight up. The Don't Pass and Don't Come bets are marginally better wagers than the Pass and Come bets - but only marginally.

3. Pass - Come. If you are going to toss the dice then everything starts with a Don't Pass or a Pass Line bet. Most shooters prefer to toss the dice from the right side. For dice setters - a Pass Line bet is the price of admission if you're trying to toss a monster hand. The Pass Line and Come wagers carry a house edge of approximately 1.41%. It's a miniscule edge, and one you can easily overcome through the expeditious application of free odds bets and dice influencing. With that said, in most cases you should stick with betting table minimums on the Pass Line. Instead of betting $50 on the Pass Line with $100 (2x) odds, bet $10 on the Pass Line with $100 (10X) odds. You'll be dollars ahead over the long run.

4. Buy or Lay the Four or Ten. I list this before place betting the six and eight for one reason - the odds on this bet are better than the six and eight place bets if the casino collects the commission only on the win as opposed to up front - and if they'll let you push the breakage (the point at which they increase the commission to the next level). For example, if you are buy betting, the 5% commission on a $20 buy bet on the four or ten is $1. Pretty much all casinos allow green chip bettors to buy the four and ten for $25 and still pay $1 juice. Some casinos will allow you to push that bet up to $30 before rounding up and charging the extra buck. And a rare few will book a $39 bet for $1 commission. Of course, if you're in craps heaven - also known as the Santa Ana Star in Albuquerque - all buy and lay bets on the four or ten are free.

5. Place the Six and Eight. I often say that I'll bet a six or eight on anyone who touches the dice. I've also said that more money has been lost on the six and eight than any other numbers on the layout. Why? Because so much more money is wagered on the six and eight. The house edge on the six and eight is just 1.51%. If, like some people Just about every craps write around advises new players to play the pass line with odds, place the six and eight, and, if they want more action, to make a couple of come bets - keeping two to three numbers covered.

That strategy - Pass Line, Free Odds, Place the Six and Eight, Continuous Come Bets with Odds - is about as good as it gets wen the table gets hot. Of course, at the end of the day the best bet on the table is a WINNING bet.

[Golfer]

I don't see hopping the 7's here.

[wudged]

Don't you mean Big Red at 4:1 ?

[heavy]

Both bets are covered in the last sentence of the article.

[Golfer]

Wudged, hoppers on the red pays 4 1/3 to 1 of the total bet. Slight edge. Winning $15 on big red pays $75 and down. $60 (@4 to 1) + the original bet = $75. Winner on $5 each hoppers ($15 total bet) pays $80 and down. $75 on the winning combo (@15 to 1) and the return of the $5 bet on that combo = $80.

Golfer

[wudged]

I guess I mistook your first post as sarcasm!

[heavy]

My pal Golfer is a hop-a-holic. I understand that completely. It is addictive.

[freak]

I'd like to nominate another. IDK if it's #6 or #66 but one bet I really like is to parlay the comeout 7-11s. I see almost everyone else at the table rack the winnings on every 7-11. If I'm in a positive bank roll situation I let it parlay endlessly. If I'm just so-so I'll rack a little parlay a little. A few weeks back I was playing with my GF. I had been doing OK on the don't but the table had turned positive on the last shooter so I wasn't betting. My GF was. The shooter was rolling to set his third point. It was a $10 table but she'd pressed the passline on each win, so she was at $25. 7! Now $25 had become $50. 11! Now up to $100 I said "Parlay baby. Whooo!" She said "I can't put $100 on the passline. I'm putting $25 in the rack." She bet $75 and another 7 rolled. Now she had $150. "OMG. What am I supposed to do with all this money. I can't put $150 on the passline can I? Really? (much nail biting) I'll do $100." The shooter then rolled an 11! She racked the $100 and left $100. Good timing cause the next roll was 8. Shooter made the 8 and she won the $100 passline bet. Nice. And if she/I had had the guts to full parlay it would have gone. $25 - $50 - $100 - $200 - $400 win! As it was she got $175 on the flat passline bet before the point and another $100 when it hit. For most passline betters it was just a $40 bump - $10 + $10 +$10 + $10. Of course there are times that the point isn't made. (Or a nice parlay string ends with a craps number) And it really sucks to have $10 grow to $160 then get attached to a 4, but if you can just keep your head wrapped around the fact that it's still just a $10 bet of YOUR money and $150 of "matching funds supplied by the casino" it doesn't hurt so bad to lose. And it feels really really good to win.

[heavy]

Yeah, that's an old Sam Grafstein move and one I use all the time. The difference - in Grafstein's case - he never took odds on parlayed pass line bets. I always take odds on them, although I may limit myself to 2X at that point.

[pradice]

I have tried the Grafstein move the last couple of months. I like to parlay, then regress to original minimum pass line bet. Then repeat. I always take odds. My cowboy logic tells me I have won a little on this move. Sometimes I have no pass line bets on some shooters during a trending shift, and /or playing the dark side, where I don't use this move.

One other seldom talked about play I have done for a year on Random rollers is the 2 no hit field play. Wait, Wait, I know most authors despise the field, but listen a minute. Only On a table offering triple 12 and double 2, I wait until 2 no field rolls in a row occur, then bet one unit. If the bet wins I am done. If the bet loses I play bet once more for 2 units. After two bets , I am done and start the count over. My count can go from player to player, no worries. Example shooter #1 rolls and establishes an 8 for the point, then rolls a 7..His 7 out begins a new count.. Shooter # 2 rolls a 5 on the come out,. Now we are at a 2 no field count, time to bet. It keeps some chips in action, while waiting for a qualified shooter too.

Any thoughts on this play ???

[freak]

My thought is it's as good as any field play...it'll win some of the time. I've seen 10 roll field streaks and 10 roll no field streaks. But I do believe there is comfort in patterns. I don't believe I have a winning "strategy" but I do have patterns that have proven to either win or show me that a win is not currently available to my pattern so I know to when to stop pushing. The only thing I'd add to your field play is if the first hit wins parlay it. That's my pattern when I bet the field. If it wins parlay once then down.

[heavy]

On a table offering triple 12 and double 2, I wait until 2 no field rolls in a row occur, then bet one unit. If the bet wins I am done. If the bet loses I play bet once more for 2 units. After two bets , I am done and start the count over.

Yeah, that play has been around for a long time, and it's not a bad theory. It's just the Field bet that's bad. Why? Because a decision is made on that bet on every toss of the dice. So where your line bet or place bet stays up until the seven shows - the Field can lose on every toss. Hence, the cost per hour to play the Field is significant.

I'm not a fan of the Field. With that said, from time to time I will drop a "Mississippi Craps Check" in the Field from time to time - using the Field as a hedge as opposed to a buck on Any Craps. BTW, if I get a hit in the Field with that play I'll parlay it to a point number - usually the one that just rolled unless it was the come out. But what I really like to do is parlay it to a World bet if a 2, 3, 11, or 12 rolls. Ridiculous strategy? Of course. But there's a "fun" element of craps to be considered as well.

BTW, triple on the 2 AND the 12 at the Santa Ana Star in Albuquerque. With those odds I suspect you could make a living on the variance alone.

[freak]

Triple on 2 & 12? Are both barred on the DP?

[wudged]

No, field and DP are independent of one another; they only bar the 12.

There are some places (Reno, I think?) that bar the 2 on don't pass but do pay on the 12.

[pradice]

Thanks for the field comments. I am gonna try the freak parlay move soon, it does seem pairs of non field or field numbers come together. SOmeday I want to play a whole session with this bet only, but how boring would that be?

Heavy: Your hourly rate on a one roll bet was an overlooked cost to me. I had never thought of it that way.. I spose that waiting for 2 no field hits before a wager would slow that hourly expense somewhat, but that still is an excellent consideration, hourly expense on a bet. By the way, your thread of older articles is thick with new concepts and betting strategies for me . Thanks..

[arrgy]

1. Don't Come-While the odds are technically the same as Don't Pass, really they aren't. Consider...any warm to hot shooter will make natural 7/11 on the come out, and often multiple times. They will also yield winners on the pass line. Yet many times my lonely DC bet is still up and working on the come out just ready for that hot shooter to knock it out with a come out winner 7. My father swears by the DP, I swear by the DC whenever we play at the same betting amounts I always end up ahead.

2. Free Odds-agreed

3. Lay No-If you have the bankroll this is another strong play. The only thing I ever agreed with John Patrick on was having enough of a bankroll to make a lay bet. If you can lay $10 against the 4 or 10 it would be the most popular bet on the table. If you can find a house that charges the vig on the back end, it is even that much stronger. You actually get better odds on a no 4 or 10 then you would on a Pai-Go table or on a Banker bet in Baccarat for the same 5% vig.

4. Place 6 or 8-agreed

5. Take me Down-The best bet is the one you take down when you get around that magical 6:1 ratio in the point cycle. Sometimes your best bet is not to bet at all.

[acpa]

Aargy,

I'm confused.

When you say your Dc bet is knocked off when the shooter makes their point and then rolls a 7 or 11 on his new come out roll.

A 11 has no influence on an existing DC bet and a 7 is a Winner for an existing DC bet.

Am I missing something?

I agree with your comments about the other bets.

Noah

[TedOU1]

I have been looking at a new strategy. I have been a right side bettor for 98% of my 30 years of Craps playing.
What is your thought on this?....
Playing the DP, then placing the 6 and 8 if the point is something else. Then my points are the 6/7/8.
Laying NO Odds on the Don't Pass.

[arrgy]

Aargy,

I'm confused.

When you say your Dc bet is knocked off when the shooter makes their point and then rolls a 7 or 11 on his new come out roll.

A 11 has no influence on an existing DC bet and a 7 is a Winner for an existing DC bet.

Am I missing something?

I agree with your comments about the other bets.

Noah

I think I am misunderstood.

You DP me DC.

Come out roll of 4. Your DP is no 4.
Next roll I make a DC, roll is 10. My DC is no 10
Next roll is 4. Down goes your DP, my no 10 is still active.
You make another DP bet.

Shooter gets warm...Come out 7.
You lose DP. I win DC for the no 10.

Technically the bets had the same odds against them, yet while your DP was a come out my DC was not.

When you get into warm or choppy tables that is going to happen..a lot.

[acpa]

We agree, but if you reread the post I replayed to you worded it to say your DC bet lost to a new Come out 7. But that wasn't what you meant to say.

I agree that a DC bet "win" on a come out seven and also agree tha I have often seen it happen.

Noah