I have done quite a bit of reading into posts from the past here and I have come up with a question of using a lay hedge to offset the PSO for a bet like MP's 204 across for example.
Simply using a $400 lay 4/10 for the 2 hits needed before the regression. Am I overreaching? Am I thinking of risking too much to try to protect some?
What are your thoughts of hedging a bet like this. Is it a benefit or a huge risk?
Inspector.
The Value of a hedge.
Moderators: 220Inside, DarthNater
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vegasfan2010
Re: The Value of a hedge.
I do not hedge very often except for the come out when I have a pass line bet. Another time is when the Firebet reaches four points. I think lowering bets is better than hedging.
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Mad Professor
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2011 12:15 pm
Re: The Value of a hedge.
Hi Inspector,
Here's an advantage-play idiom about hedging:
~If you feel the need to hedge a bet; then chances are, you are over-betting your comfort-level, and probably shouldn't be betting to the initial level in the first place.
So for example, if you move up to the green-chip ($25) level on the Passline, but have the urge to 'protect' it with a $3 three-way Craps or something like that (especially if you don't have a validated in-casino edge over that wager); then chances are, your D-I shooting is going to be negatively affected because you are clearly betting beyond your comfort-level.
Likewise with trying to hedge the MP-$204 with $400 Lay-bets. If you start hedging bets, and then adding further bets to 'hedge-the-hedge' (like adding H-way and Hop-bets to 'protect' the Lay-bet); you end up playing a John Patrick-style 'LOSE LESS' game instead of a pos-ex advantage-centric 'WIN MORE' game.
However, if you feel the need to hedge the 5th or 6th Fire-bet point; then I won't try to talk you out of it.
MP
Here's an advantage-play idiom about hedging:
~If you feel the need to hedge a bet; then chances are, you are over-betting your comfort-level, and probably shouldn't be betting to the initial level in the first place.
So for example, if you move up to the green-chip ($25) level on the Passline, but have the urge to 'protect' it with a $3 three-way Craps or something like that (especially if you don't have a validated in-casino edge over that wager); then chances are, your D-I shooting is going to be negatively affected because you are clearly betting beyond your comfort-level.
Likewise with trying to hedge the MP-$204 with $400 Lay-bets. If you start hedging bets, and then adding further bets to 'hedge-the-hedge' (like adding H-way and Hop-bets to 'protect' the Lay-bet); you end up playing a John Patrick-style 'LOSE LESS' game instead of a pos-ex advantage-centric 'WIN MORE' game.
However, if you feel the need to hedge the 5th or 6th Fire-bet point; then I won't try to talk you out of it.
MP