Firebet Hedge

[kumar]

On Friday in Tunica I was lucky enough to shoot a 48 roll 5 firebet hand [had 5 bucks on it] so Saturday morning I was up for the trip when this hand came along:

A random shooter quickly started making his passline points and had made 5 numbers on the fire bet.He then established the 6th point which was a 10.I had 5 bucks on the firebet so I layed the 10 for $900,put a $100 on the hard 10 and kept all my other bets up.My other bets totalled around $250.

The shooter immediately rolled a soft 10.

Question for the crowd-Was mine the correct play or should I have not hedged?
-should I have not hedged but brought the other bets down?

I will be the first to admit it was a nice problem to have.

I want to avoid on this post getting into the merits of the firebet.We all know house has a big edge. but when it is hitting it is fun.

[Ahigh]

My opinion on the matter is that if you get that far without hedging, your hedge should ideally result in as close to the same pay no matter what happens, and you should not second guess anything after that. $5 on a fire bet that pays $5,000, you have $5,000 coming for a 1/3rd chance. That's a value of about $1,667 bucks. So you want to engineer at $1,667 win if you don't hit the 10, so you would lay the ten for $5,000 - $1666 = $3334, and pay the $84 vig up front.

If the bet pays $1500 instead of $5,000, you have $1,500/3 = $500 expected return on average. So you lay the ten for $1,000.

In either case when you engineer the results to be the same you simply don't care what happens at all and you act as if the bet is no longer there.

That's how I would do it anyway.

I refer to the practice as "liquidating" the value of an in-progress bet.

You can do the same thing if you bet a $1,000 DC and it travels to the four, you have a 1/3 edge on that bet, which is worth $333. So you can place it for $666 and ensure that you get $337 if it doesn't hit and $297 if it does (after 5% vig on the win). If you are a real math genius you can even account for the vig to get the same pay no matter what happens.

[TwinStix]

If the last point on a fire bet (all six points) is a 4 or 10, and the payout is 250-1 for 5 points hit, I combine all working place bets and lay the point.

Boom.

Has worked more times than not.

[heavy]

My position is always to lay the sixth number for an amount sufficient to win 25% of the value of the Fire win assuming that the sixth number isn't rolled. In this case, I'd be looking to win $1250 on a seven out or $5000 (less the $1250) not factoring in vig - if the player made his point. With that said, I like TwinStix's idea of taking down all of the Place/Buy bets and using them to make the Lay - assuming that they are all long since paid for.

[heavy]

By the way, Golfer would have taken all of those bets down and hopped the ten.

[Golfer]

True Dat H Man. Woulda won too.

But alas, it is not an advantage play so it doesn't count right?

Later

[TwinStix]

With that said, I like TwinStix's idea of taking down all of the Place/Buy bets and using them to make the Lay - assuming that they are all long since paid for.

.....naturally....

In the rare event that they HAVE NOT been paid for (which would be short of a miracle for a 6th point FB type hand, unless said shooter was coming right back 50% of the time), I say keep one event working. i.e. PL with odds (if you like that sort of thing ) or table min on the inside. I guess it all depends if you like action or not.

[HornHighJoe]

This is my first post, so be gently.

I take a similar approach to what AHigh said, where i take a more mathematical approach, so bear with me if you are not that strong in math.

Using the 4 as the 6th point and a $5 fire bet in my example:

There is a 2/3 chance of not hitting it, but you are guaranteed $1250. Now you will also win your hedge amount which will be represented by the letter Y.
So your expected payout is (2/3)(1250+Y)

There is a 1/3 chance of making that 6th number for a $5000 win. But you will then have to subtract the amount you hedge, which will be represented by the letter Z.
Your expected payout is (1/3)(5000-Z)

Regarding the hedge amount, Z/2=Y.
So subbing in Y and making the two expected payouts equal I get Z=$1250, which is how much I would hedge.

Now I don't put a lay bet, but instead I would put a $200 Pass and Don't Pass amount each when the shooter is attempting their 6th number. This allows me to avoid paying the vig. Even with the 1 in 36 chance of a 12 occurring, in the long-run I save a lot more than putting a $30 commission each time.

The added bonus to a Doey-Don't bet, is if the shooter repeats a number, then I can take that place number down and put it as my odds on the line bet to get a better payout.

FYI for the 5/9 the amount would be ~$1560
and the 6/8 $1750

[heavy]

So would you hedge against the 12 when making that $200 doey-don't play? Just curious. As much as I dislike the doey-don't 99% of the time - this is one of those instances where it kind of makes sense to me. Yeah, you'd have to go through the mental exercise to back in to the correct doey-don't size bet to allow you to lay sufficient odds assuming whatever the odds limit are at the table - 3-4-5x, 10x, 20x, 100x, or whatever. Certainly something to think about.

What took you so long to get around to posting? Clearly you've got a good handle on the game. Thanks for chiming in.

[HornHighJoe]

So would you hedge against the 12 when making that $200 doey-don't play? Just curious. As much as I dislike the doey-don't 99% of the time - this is one of those instances where it kind of makes sense to me. Yeah, you'd have to go through the mental exercise to back in to the correct doey-don't size bet to allow you to lay sufficient odds assuming whatever the odds limit are at the table - 3-4-5x, 10x, 20x, 100x, or whatever. Certainly something to think about.

What took you so long to get around to posting? Clearly you've got a good handle on the game. Thanks for chiming in.

With a $200 doey-don't for every 36 rolls you'd lose $200.
The vig on a $1250 lay bet would be about $30. However, you would only pay that 3 out of 36 times, because any other number on the comeout, you wouldn't lay that number. So in 36 rolls it'll cost you $90.

So mathematically, I should be laying, but the 2-3 times I have had the opportunity where the shooter was going for the 6th number, I've done the doey-don't with no hedge against the 12. And one time I did get burned when the shooter rolled midnight, but I only had a $1 fire bet so my pass line bet was small.

I also don't like to hedge against the 12 because the high house edge that bet carries. Also any amount you hedge will be about the same as the vig you'd have to pay on a lay bet.

I bring a small note book with me, where I have written down the amount I need to hedge in case the situation arises. So there is no need for me to slow down the game trying to put the correct amount out.

On a personal note, one time I messed up putting my doey-don't bet out, and I made it too small. But it did work out to my advantage since the shooter made the sixth number, and my hedge did not cost me that much.

It only took me so long for my first post 'cause I wanted it to come out with a bang.

[VegasDiceController]

You can do the same thing if you bet a $1,000 DC and it travels to the four, you have a 1/3 edge on that bet, which is worth $333. So you can place it for $666 and ensure that you get $337 if it doesn't hit and $297 if it does (after 5% vig on the win).

I just did this recommended play Last night... when an Eleven showed they took my $1000 that was in the DC...Damnit , so, ill show them right? So, now I put $2000 back in the DC ...now ill just place it for $1334 as you explained right? . Next roll a 7 out. WTF... Never made it to a number, let alone the 4 or 10. Now im left with my D*** in my hand and trying to find a way to tell the wife, we lost being and i have absolutely no influence over game to get 3 dimes back.

now what?

[wudged]

The doey/don't wouldn't help when he's trying to establish a DC and a place bet at the same time.

You could have laid 5 for $1500 to protect the DC against the 7, and also thrown out $35 yo.

Of course then you'd need to hedge your no-5, so go ahead and also place the 5 for $1000.

But what about protecting that place 5? Lay the 4 for $2000.

Now protect the no-4 with a $1100 buy four.

Now the buy four needs some security. Lay the 6 for $1500.

Now make a $1500 come bet to pay off the no-6 if a 7 shows.

But what about a craps? Ugh! Better throw a field bet out for $500 to cover a 12, a $20 aces, and $35 ace-deuce.

Better place the 5, 6, 8 also to cover your field bet...

[Jonah]

The doey/don't wouldn't help when he's trying to establish a DC and a place bet at the same time.
[snip]
But what about a craps? Ugh! Better throw a field bet out for $500 to cover a 12, a $20 aces, and $35 ace-deuce.
[snip]

Uh, DC wins on a Aces, Ace-Deuce and pushes ("Bar"(ed)" most places) on 12 Boxcars...

YMMV

[TwinStix]

The doey/don't wouldn't help when he's trying to establish a DC and a place bet at the same time.
[snip]
But what about a craps? Ugh! Better throw a field bet out for $500 to cover a 12, a $20 aces, and $35 ace-deuce.
[snip]

Uh, DC wins on a Aces, Ace-Deuce and pushes ("Bar"(ed)" most places) on 12 Boxcars...

YMMV

Speaking of....

I've always loved this line:

"Yeah I like to play the Dont Pass Bar..."

[realtime]

You can do the same thing if you bet a $1,000 DC and it travels to the four, you have a 1/3 edge on that bet, which is worth $333. So you can place it for $666 and ensure that you get $337 if it doesn't hit and $297 if it does (after 5% vig on the win).

I just did this recommended play Last night... when an Eleven showed they took my $1000 that was in the DC...Damnit , so, ill show them right? So, now I put $2000 back in the DC ...now ill just place it for $1334 as you explained right? . Next roll a 7 out. WTF... Never made it to a number, let alone the 4 or 10. Now im left with my D*** in my hand and trying to find a way to tell the wife, we lost being and i have absolutely no influence over game to get 3 dimes back.

now what?

Yep, the smartest guy in the room has some outstanding recommendations.

Go ask him for your 3 dimes back!

[wudged]

The doey/don't wouldn't help when he's trying to establish a DC and a place bet at the same time.
[snip]
But what about a craps? Ugh! Better throw a field bet out for $500 to cover a 12, a $20 aces, and $35 ace-deuce.
[snip]

Uh, DC wins on a Aces, Ace-Deuce and pushes ("Bar"(ed)" most places) on 12 Boxcars...

YMMV

Yes. The first line was a response to six shooter and was completely separate from the rest of the post.

The field bet was to hedge against the come bet which, as I reread my tongue-in-cheek post, turns out to be completely useless as it does not hedge against the no-6 but rather helps it! Mmm hedging..

[Lkwd]

I never hedge the firebet when I am tossing. It means I lack faith in my ability. Have hit 5 four times and each time I made the fifth, the next toss I set the last point (6). I Did not make it but it gave me the mental toughness and kept me in the zone by Not laying the 6th point.

I will say that before I got the dice to go for the last point, it took "forever" to get the dice waiting for all the players around the table to either make they lay hedge bet or try to figure out how to make the lay bet. It took like 5 minutes to get the dice back each time.

It does destroy they rhythm of the roll. Have faith guys. Let the table continue to,give it up and await the 6 out of 6. If you keep your mouths shut , pay attention and I believe it can happen.

Just my two cents worth......


Lkwd