Dodging bullets / playing the dont pass using MP's strategy

[FlaPlayer]

Hi to all- I'm new to the forum but have been cooresponding with Heavy and Dice coach over the last year (I took one of Dice Coache's classes in Vegas last year)- I am strictly a DP player. I went to Vegas 11 times in the last year on business and started playing the DP kind of on accident- Once Dice Coach and Heavy verified the math, what stuck with me was the advantage after the come out roll...I counted cards for 12 years and would search all night for a 2% advantage and if I'm on the DP and the point is a 6, the advantage is 9%? That hooked me- I used my card counting background so I understand bankroll, risk of ruin, stop loss discipline, and the ability to judge a table and walk away at the right time. I never bet agaiinst dice setters.

With all of that being said, I ended up having the largest weekend in my 14 years as an advantage player- and did nothing but play the don’t pass using a variation of the Mad Professor’s “dodging bullets” strategy. Here is the background of what I did:

• Played for 19 hours in 4 days
• Total win was over 240 units
• Starting bet was $100 /laying 6 times odds on the Don’t Pass
• I didn’t bet against any “dice setters”, almost all tables I’d classify as choppy and shooters throwing dice very randomly.
• Started 50% of the time with a new shooter and 50% of the time I waited until the first point was thrown-

I then bet the Martingale outlined in the MP's dodging bullets strategy as follows ( I know MP says not to lay odds with this strategy, but I laid them):
o 2nd point: $200 / $1400
o 3rd point: $300 / $1800
o 4th point: $400 / $2400
o 5th Point: $500 / $3500 (there were 4 instances that I reached this level, the shooter never hit a 6th point)

Bankroll: I have a $25K credit line at one strip casino and $25K at another- I also have an additional $25K in reserve, so $75K total.

Questions:

1. Was this just an incredible run of luck over 19 hours?
2. Based on my bet levels (for my rating the average bet without odds was $300 for 19 hours) and the bankroll I mention, do you know what my risk of ruin was?
3. Is my bankroll large enough?
4. With a win that large (even on the Don’t pass) do I stand a chance of getting barred? I am very generous tipping the dealers and all of the pit bosses /floor managers are very friendly to me at this point.
5. Any input as to the strategy I used?

And you have to have balls of steel using this method and trust the math (especially the .5% chance that a shooter will make 6 PL points in a row)- it is not for the faint of heart. And doing this at a hot table can take an hour and really piss off some people- I had a kid start yelling at me after a large win and the floor manager had him kicked out

I would love your input- Thanks Guys!

[SHOOTITALL]

I will add a little input but this is way above my pay grade as you have too many zeros for me. You have to have faith in the math but taking a $10K hit on that fifth point would have been devastating. Next, even when you won the fifth point, it did not recover the losses from before, I calculate that you were ~$4350 underwater after the win. That is the quandary of playing odds on the don't: it takes two wins to recover one loss. Anyways, good luck with this but I do believe there are more efficient ways of playing at this level. Hopefully MP and Heavy will give their insight as they likes to play with lots of zeros.

[heavy]

It sounds like you were betting whenever a random roller had the dice but not when a dice setter/influencer had them. Could you clarify that point? Also, did you shoot the dice and shoot from the Don'ts? Did you treat your own hands the same as everyone else's? Once we know that info we'll be in a better position to answer your questions - at least to the best of our meager abilities. Thanks.

[FlaPlayer]

Heavy: I never shoot and only bet on random shooters (like I said I can recognize a dice setter with some ability from taking Dice Coaches class). Almost every table I bet on was a mixture of college age / 30 something kids, throwing the dice all over.

I believe Shootitall has his numbers wrong: going into the last point (6th) I would be down $6500....twice the point was 6 (5/6 pay off)...with that point, I get back my $4000 original bet ($500 / 3500 odds) and $500 / $3000, which translates into a $1000 profit- had the 7 not hit, I would be down over $10K. I had confidence that a non-dice setter wasnt going to hit a 6th point with it being a .5% chance of that happening.

[realtime]

MP posted this recently on another thread.....IMO you got lucky.

With GREAT reluctance, I am posting a link to my infamous "Dodging Bullets" series. I do so with immense hesitation because betting on RANDOM-outcomes is fraught with very high bankroll-erosion risk...and I do not want to seem to be encouraging more R-R betting; because I am not.

Also note that this series was written almost 15 years ago, and my position on random-betting has changed SIGNIFICANTLY since then.

Dodging Bullets as a Darksider…Part 1

Dodging Bullets as a Darksider…Part 2

FAQ’s about the Choppy Table/Short Leash…Part 1

FAQ’s about the Choppy Table/Short Leash…Part 2

FAQ’s about the Choppy Table/Short Leash…Part 3

MP

[heavy]

Unfortunately, none of those links linked. We'll work on that later. Perhaps MP will re-post the links. I'll have some more thoughts later this evening.

[FlaPlayer]

I'd like to know MP's anaylsis of the BR (which I'm sure $75K wasnt enough) and my other questions- thanks Heavy

[Mad Professor]

.


Here is a repost of MP's post.

Ms. MP





With GREAT reluctance, I am posting a link to my infamous "Dodging Bullets" series. I do so with immense hesitation because betting on RANDOM-outcomes is fraught with very high bankroll-erosion risk...and I do not want to seem to be encouraging more R-R betting; because I am not.

Also note that this series was written almost 15 years ago, and my position on random-betting has changed SIGNIFICANTLY since then.

Dodging Bullets as a Darksider…Part 1

Dodging Bullets as a Darksider…Part 2

FAQ’s about the Choppy Table/Short Leash…Part 1

FAQ’s about the Choppy Table/Short Leash…Part 2

FAQ’s about the Choppy Table/Short Leash…Part 3

MP

[FlaPlayer]

I read all of that guys, I need the math analysis by MP....if I'm at a $4000 bet on the 6th roll and the shooter (random shooter / non dice setter) has a .05% chance of making that point, what is the ROR with a $75K bank roll?

[wudged]

o 2nd point: $200 / $1400
o 3rd point: $300 / $1800
o 4th point: $400 / $2400
o 5th Point: $500 / $3500

First, fixing what I assume you meant -
o 2nd point: $200 / $1200
o 3rd point: $300 / $1800
o 4th point: $400 / $2400
o 5th Point: $500 / $3000

I believe Shootitall has his numbers wrong: going into the last point (6th) I would be down $6500

Losing the first point costs 100 + 600 (700), second point costs 200 + 1200 (1400), third point 300 + 1800 (2100), fourth point costs 400 + 2400 (2800) for a grand total of 7000. And this is all assuming there are no come out natural 7s or 11s to take away your flat bet.

Now on a fifth point, you have 500 and 3000 laid out. You are correct that you get your original bet back, but you don't add it to your net result. The net result of a "successful" seven out on a point of 6 yields 500 + 2500, for a net win of 3000. Subtract from that the 7000 already lost on the first four points and you are in the hole 4000 for that one shooter.

...laying 6 times odds on the Don’t Pass

Just to clarify, you are still laying 3x4x5 odds, not 6. The odds on a don't bet are calculated as to how much your potential win is versus the flat bet, not the amount outlaid versus the flat bet.

if I'm at a $4000 bet on the 6th roll and the shooter (random shooter / non dice setter) has a .05% chance of making that point, what is the ROR with a $75K bank roll?

Don't fall into "due theory" / "gambler's fallacy". While a shooter may have a .05% chance of making 6 points, the shooter still has a 40% chance of making that particular point.

I can't answer your questions about risk of ruin / bankroll requirements, but as far as the strategy itself goes, it is pretty solid except I would tone it down a bit and just sit waiting for a new shooter once the current one has made 2 or 3 points.

It doesn't sound like you really let the other people at the table bother you, but you might want to also look at the don't come instead of don't pass. A lot less people understand that bet and won't see it as "you taking money from them" as they for some reason like to do on the don't pass.

Welcome to the board! If you took Dice Coach's class, how come you don't try shooting from the don't? That really riles up the table if they realize what's going on!

[FlaPlayer]

I get some of what you said and what I have been doing (successfullly) is just betting $100/ $600 odds on the DP and finding another table with a sloppy random shooter after I lost twice- I have never had a losing trip / night doing this approach- but doing the Martingale / "dodging bullets" I outlined was somthing different. I have played the DP for a year and never had a losing night- this is over 100 hours leaving after losing 2 times to the same shooter and finding another table. Betting on a sloppy table with random shooters and being conservative pays off. I didnt do that this trip, I used the progression I outlined.

What I outlined is betting $100 / 600 on the 2nd roll and the $500 / $3000 after the 5th roll- I simply want to know the ROR on the big bet on the 6th roll and the BR requirements. My take (watching random shooters and betting on them for over a year) is that this can be a very profitable approach- but I'm sure my betting level and BR requirements were off- thats where I need your help.

And I appreciate the kind words about the board and I tried to shoot for months without success- I'm a 5 handicap golfer and without a craps table in my house, I can't practice enough to be like you pro's. I liken what you do dice setting to making 4 foot putts for money with a crowd watching you- it is not easy and the way I am, I couldnt get into what golfers call "the flow".

I welcome any more input- Thanks!

[FlaPlayer]

and at this point, I really don't care about the reaction I get betting the DP....I can tell at least 10 stories where I've had a drunken A HOLE lay into me and the dealers / pit boss intervened...I take care of the dealers, you have to when you play the DP.

It's not a popularity contest

[heavy]

Here is where I'm having trouble giving you the answer you're looking for, FlaPlayer. You seem to be calculating your advantage on the DP without taking into consider your disadvantage on the Come Out roll. You can't have one without the other. So keep that in mind as you consider the rest of my answer. Next, I'm curious to know if you have any "rules" for play such as Grafstein's "Never let the same player beat you twice in the same hand" rule. In other words, if a shooter knocks you off your DP wager with a come out seven or eleven - do you go right back up on the same shooter or do you wait for the next one? I ask because I am of the opinion that the odds of getting whacked by consecutive shooters is less than getting whacked multiple times by the same shooter in the same hand. Laying off for the rest of that shooter's hand prevents you from chasing your loss down a rabbit hole.

I'm not going to run through an entire risk of ruin calculation, but I think I can give you some general guidelines. Let's say you're betting $100 with $1000 odds with a $10K session bankroll. The odds of you surviving 100 decisions is about 93% at that level. The odds that you'll survive 200 decisions is about 80%. Those numbers are why you'll hear so many guys like me telling you that you need to buy in for at least 10 times your average bet.

By adding the martingale in, you are increasing your average bet exponentially. To get the answer you're looking for we'd need to know how often you get to each progressive level over the long run and calculate from there. But I think as long as you maintain that 10 - 1 radio of session bankroll to average bet you will be relatively safe.

One way to improve your chances of not busting out would be to base your betting on the Kelly Criterion instead of the martingale. If you believe you have a 6% edge over the game with a $75K bankroll - then you'd be looking at an average bet substantially higher than what you are playing. In the Kelly you play a percentage of your bankroll equivalent to your edge. The hardcore among us would calculate that average bet based on your lifetime bankroll - the amount you'd have to lose before you'd give up the game entirely. Being a kinder gentler Heavy, I'd go with a percentage of my session bankroll. With a $10K buy in and a 6% edge you'd be betting $600 total. If your bankroll decreased to $7000 you'd be betting $420. If it increased to $12,000 then your bet would increase to $720. Play that way and your risk of ruin is essentially zip.

Yeah, I realize that's probably not the answer you want to hear. So far you've been lucky. You may continue to be lucky for a long time. Just remember to maintain loss limits per session. When you hit the martingale wall - and eventually you will - you need to live to play another day. Don't blow through the entire $75K chasing it. Believe me, I've seen it done.

[FlaPlayer]

Thanks Heavy- I will e-mail you

[Mad Professor]

Hi FLAplayer,

I think you'll like my answer even less than Heavy's reply.

~As I understand it, you are betting on random-rollers.

~I also understand that, in many cases, you aren't waiting for the shooter to make his first PL-Point repeater before you start your Martingale/Grand Martingale betting-regimen on him.

~I further acknowledge that your use of DP-Odds goes directly against the edicts of my Choppy-Table/Short-Leash approach.

~I also understand that you are betting up to ~$10,500 in each DP w/Odds progressive series, on a $75,000 bankroll.

Given that, your risk-of-ruin is quite high. With that betting-series (at that value), and your stated bankroll; you have about an 88% chance of blowing the entire bank within 1000 hands (where you start the betting-series and see it through to the 5th step). I would strongly recommend that you NOT bet in this fashion.

MP

[FlaPlayer]

That is what I needed, I thought it was too much- is 4 max bets in 19 hours normal or low? Thanks MP

[Mad Professor]

HI FLAplayer,

When looking at an intended betting-series, we have to look at not only the diminishing BEFORE-THE-FACT consecutive-probability of a random-roller making x-number of consecutive PL-Point repeaters during the POINT-cycle; but we also have to consider the interceding effect of the Sheriff (the 7) and his Deputy (the 11) during the COME-OUT cycle.

~For example, we know that there is about a 40% chance that a random-roller will successfully repeat his FIRST PL-Point...and about a 16% chance that he'll successfully repeat his SECOND PL-Point...and about a 6.4% chance that he'll successfully repeat his THIRD PL-Point...and about a 2.56% chance that he'll successfully repeat his FOURTH PL-Point...and about a 1.02% chance that he'll successfully repeat his FIFTH PL-Point...and about a 0.41% chance that he'll successfully repeat his SIXTH PL-Point...

...but what about the interceding effect of the Sheriff (the 7) and his Deputy (the 11) during each between-PL-Point COME-OUT cycle?

Ahhh, there's the rub...and that's what my mentors called the "friction of battle".

~We know that the C-O 7 or 11 will appear AT LEAST ONCE during each come-out about 22.2% of the time...and appear TWICE during the same C-O about 17.3% of the time...and appear THREE times during the same C-O about 13.4% of the time...and appear FOUR times during the same C-O about 10.5% of the time...and appear FIVE times during the same C-O about 8.1% of the time...and appear SIX times during the same C-O about 6.3% of the time.

Multiply those chances by FIVE between-Point come-outs, and you start to see how much actual risk you are putting your money at.

As Heavy alluded to, you not only have to worry about a random-roller repeating SIX PL-Points in a row; but more importantly, you (and your ever-escalating wagers) have to survive the Come-Out cycle too...which in fact can be EVEN MORE DANGEROUS to your wagers than the actual prospect of a R-R making six PL-Points in a row.

Add in the fact that you have to go through that Come-Out cycle between each PL-Point repeater, and the fact that your bankroll-to-bet ratio is dangerously slim; and you have a recipe for complete bankroll-wipeout disaster.

MP

[FlaPlayer]

so I get it - especially on the odds and how I overbetted my bankroll, I will go back to my safety net as outlined by Heavy and has served me well.

I counted cards for 12 years and I "Wonged" tables- I would start out at a 2 deck shoe and once the count went bad I would go to the bathroom, get a cell phone call, etc. so the dealer would re-shuffle- this is called "wonging out" and made it so I didnt play during any negative counts- this is an exhausting way to count, it takes patience and you wear out your welcome quickly if you keep doing it at the same BJ pit- and you have to change casinos frequently- not easy, but easy on your BR.

You could (in theory) be at a craps pit, hear the cheers of a table, walk up (observe if it is a sloppy, random roller) and ask the dealer how many points the shooter has hit- and then "wong" in and bet the DP at the apppropriate level you outlined in dodging bullets. You could be placing one large bet after the 4th point, instead of starting at the 2nd point- you wouldnt have lost the 2nd or 3rd points, so I guess this would limit your risk and BR requirements-and your not losing bets on the come out roll to the 7 and 11 on the 2nd and 3rd points.

The problem would be finding a spot at a hot table- never easy.

Has anyone tried this approach?

[realtime]

You could (in theory) be at a craps pit, hear the cheers of a table, walk up (observe if it is a sloppy, random roller) and ask the dealer how many points the shooter has hit- and then "wong" in and bet the DP at the apppropriate level you outlined in dodging bullets.

Make sure you "wong" in with checques and not a cash or marker buy-in that slows down the flow of the game. "Wonging" in with other than cheques on a shooter like Heavy will likely get you a lot of grief for your bad "table/craps etiquette/manners".

[bobthetree]

You could (in theory) be at a craps pit, hear the cheers of a table, walk up (observe if it is a sloppy, random roller) and ask the dealer how many points the shooter has hit- and then "wong" in and bet the DP at the apppropriate level you outlined in dodging bullets. You could be placing one large bet after the 4th point, instead of starting at the 2nd point- you wouldnt have lost the 2nd or 3rd points, so I guess this would limit your risk and BR requirements-and your not losing bets on the come out roll to the 7 and 11 on the 2nd and 3rd points.

You are still trotting out a gamblers fallacy and thinking that it grants you an edge. Even if you start to lay DP bets only after the 10th point it does not change the odds of that bet. It seems like you can't lose because you have some fractional chance of the 10th pass being made. The problem with this line of thinking is that the dice have no memory. For you, and your money you are putting at risk, that is the FIRST bet. All you did was reduce the number of trials that bet will see by sitting out a great majority of the decisions for that bet.

Let me know if you need a more in depth presentation of the numbers, but you can't talk about the probability of a sequence happening while simultaneously having your betting pattern out of work for that sequence in craps.