Thank you in advance to anyone who reads what is gonna turn into too long of a post. I guess to start it's important to say I do not believe in luck, superstition or anything like that. I do not believe that a stick change brings a 7-out. I believe it is good etiquette to keep your hands up when the dice are out but I do not believe hitting someone with the dice brings a 7-out. I don't believe any of that stuff, at least until I started playing craps. I have played enough to question everything that a normal person would consider fairly obvious.
I have played for about two years and I play every weekend and manage to get in 10 hours or so every weekend. I was introduced to the game by a friend who explained what a Fire Bet is to me. I have enjoyed playing because I have always been a poker player where there is almost zero comradary among players since you are playing against each other. I enjoy the interaction and the win as a group attitude.
I have tried several strategies along the way, all with varying degrees of (lack of) success. I know this is a game designed to make a loser out of the players, but I enjoy it anyway and accept that I will lose in the long term.
In an effort to keep this post as short as I can I will skip all the different strategies I have used and cut to the chase.
$44 or $88 inside is what I like to play now with an occasional 10 (because I saw a guy throw 16 in one hand and I am determined to get to the table max if that happens again).
Here is where what I "know" and what I see collide. I guess the overwhelming thought in my head is that eventually the 7-out is coming, it has to, there is no other choice. HOWEVER, isn't the 7 a dog to roll on any given roll (30-6 against)? The 7 has to roll eventually, but odds are it won't, but it does.
It seems to me (based on what I see, not what I believe) is the best strategy for a player like me is to play $44/$88 inside and let it up for two rolls and then take it down until the 7-out comes. Wash, rinse, repeat. Here is why I say that, based on my observation over a couple years and an (ignorantly) small sample size coupled with the fact I firmly believe people lose because they NEVER take their bets down and often (even on profitable rolls) leave more on the board than they put in their rack.
I tracked the first 50 shooters last night. This may have been a bad sequence, but I would say it is not off one way or the other on what I believe I have seen.
Not one shooter made more than two points and only 17 shooters made one point or more.
3 rolls were a buckshot 7 (point, 7)
6 rolls were one roll and out
9 roll were two rolls and out
17 rolls were three rolls and out
15 rolls went longer than 4 rolls with the longest being 11 rolls
None of these include come out rolls.
For a reason that will be obvious I didn't list all the longer rolls individually.
This brings me to the conclusion that letting your bets up two or three rolls before turning them off/taking them down seems like the best idea. Again, the 7-out is coming, you can't stop it.
Someone said something that really made sense to me, each time you decide not to take your bets down you are counting on three more inside numbers to be hit. That's so true. If I leave my inside bets up and two more inside numbers roll then 7-out, I didn't miss two winners, I saved $16/$32 dollars (picking up my $44 as opposed to $28 for the two winners then getting the $44 raked in). So yes, I will miss out on that long roll when/if it shows up, but I think I save more in the long run by taking bets down than I lose by missing that one big roll.
This is not to say I can't press bets, I certainly still can. Once I have recovered my $44/$88 I will press, but still turn off after three/four rolls. My favorite press by the way is to use the 6/8 together. When one is hit press both to $18, if another comes then drop $3 and go to $30 each, if another is hit drop $1 and go to $48 each. At this point I am looking for one more (a total of four combinations of 6/8) for $104 and down. I then split the money on the other to $24 each and start over.
All of that makes sense to me. The problem is the little logical man in my brain keeps reminding me that every roll is independent of the last roll. The third/fourth roll does not know it's the third/fourth roll in the sequence. Assuming I turn them off after the third/fourth roll and wait until after the next come out roll to turn them back on how do the dice know it's the first roll of the sequence? They don't, the odds are the same every time, aren't they? I know they are. So why do so many rolls go three tosses and out? The dice don't know it's the fourth roll, do they? Of course they don't. Right?
Man, it's frustrating to know every roll is independent of the last, but see first hand turning off your bets after two/three rolls seems to be a good idea.
Where am I missing things in the math department? I hate to prove my cocky 7-th grade teacher right who kept telling me to pay attention that math would come in handy someday, but I know I am missing something.
Logic dictates every roll is independent of the last and the odds don't change, but you can't avoid the 7-out forever, either.
I'd love to hear some of the more experienced folks speak out on this and I appreciate those who took the time to read/respond.
