Laying all numbers on come out
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Laying all numbers on come out
Hello all, I'm a new member, have been following the site for a while, and have been playing over 25 years. In a previous post about laying all 6 numbers on come out and setting for a 7, with the possibility of only losing 1 bet but winning 7, sounds pretty good. And we've all been at tables where the shooter throws 2, 3 or even 4 sevens in a row. So please explain to me why this wouldn't work? And of course after the come out, we pull down the other 5 numbers. Looking to win $10 a box, we would lay $98 across board, with a max loss of $20 on either the 4 or 10, but could win $70 on a 7. 1 out of 4 come outs is a 7 and your up! Thoughts?
Re: Laying all numbers on come out
No reason why it can't work if you are confident in your ability to toss sevens. A good way to verify that ability it via BoneTracker. Track a few thousand rolls where you're setting for the sevens, then use the transposition function in BT to determine what your best set for the sevens is based on what you tossed. Then switch to that set and try a few thousand more tosses. Okay, I know that's a lot. So do books of 720 rolls - that's how BoneTracker is set up - and verify from there. Once you've done that you'll want to take a sampling of in-casino rolls to make sure your results are holding before putting much money at risk. But really, playing as you described, you really aren't exposing much $$ to a loss on the come out. The biggest problem I see is with minimum lay bets. Some casinos get touchy about this sort of play. You and I know that in a $10 game you should be able to lay $98 across if you're willing to pony up the six bucks vig. But a lot of the casinos will want you to lay sufficient to win $20 - just because that is considered a "correct" bet by most dealers and box people. Still, it's worth a shot.
I've seen Scribe hit this play many times. Maddog will also give it a shot from time to time, and there used to be a guy I played with at the boats over here in Louisiana who used it all the time, tossing three and four sevens back to back on the come out. Pretty sweet when it works.
Anyone else have any thoughts?
BTW, welcome to the forum and thanks for jumping right in with a question.
I've seen Scribe hit this play many times. Maddog will also give it a shot from time to time, and there used to be a guy I played with at the boats over here in Louisiana who used it all the time, tossing three and four sevens back to back on the come out. Pretty sweet when it works.
Anyone else have any thoughts?
BTW, welcome to the forum and thanks for jumping right in with a question.
"Get in, get up, and get gone."
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Dave73
Re: Laying all numbers on come out
that seems like a lot to risk the for validating that your home throws match your casino throws. it also seems like you would not get many opportunities to recoup a loss unless you hit a lot of points.
if I had the skills, I would be more likely to lay two numbers, like the five and nine for $31ea, then use a 6-1, 5-2 set, essentially trying to reduce the occurrence of a small target as opposed to just trying to nail 7's and hope for the best
if I had the skills, I would be more likely to lay two numbers, like the five and nine for $31ea, then use a 6-1, 5-2 set, essentially trying to reduce the occurrence of a small target as opposed to just trying to nail 7's and hope for the best
Re: Laying all numbers on come out
To get a good edge, you need to win $20 per number.
$40 + $30 + $24 + $24 + $30 + $40 = $188
Most casinos in Las Vegas (with the exception of Fiesta Henderson) charge commission up front. So add $1 per number laid, and you have $188 + $6 = $194.
The most you could lose in a single roll is $41. You win will be $120 - $6 commission or $114.
Combined edge for the entire bet is $1 / ( $188 + $120 ) when you win - 0.3246%, and (24/30) and $6 / ( $188 + $210 ) when you lose (6/30) 1.95%. ( 0.3246 * 4 + 1.95 ) / 6. Average edge per bet is 0.5414%. Average edge per roll is (0.5414 / 1.2rolls) 0.4511%/roll. That's better than placing the six and eight, and a narrower target. Not bad.
If you consider the bet resolved when you hit any box number (24 outcomes) or the red (6 outcomes) the number of rolls is 1.2 in order to resolve. So the edge per roll is relatively low and the bet resolves quickly if you model it this way.
It also has the benefit of having a narrow target (you are aiming for the seven). Most bets that last only one roll bet against this target instead of for it. Of course the real problem with this bet is that most people can't afford to place it.
If you are lucky, you might find a place that will let you do combined vig on the bet where you just pay $1 to win $5 from five numbers. This would be the sweet spot on lowest amount required and lowest edge because you may get them to let you round down from $1.25 vig to $1.00 vig by covering everything (perhaps besides the point).
But you will be looking for an empty table as most players don't want to see somebody doing this whether it's the comeout roll or not. It's one of those bad vibe bad mojo moves. It could be that way because there is some serious exposure to the house for just shooting to win $114 every sixth roll on average with not much risk per roll.
If you can roll sevens, though, this should be very easy to beat with a controlled shot. Easier in my view than $160 across because when you screw up and have a random toss, the worst case outcome is not such a big worry.
$40 + $30 + $24 + $24 + $30 + $40 = $188
Most casinos in Las Vegas (with the exception of Fiesta Henderson) charge commission up front. So add $1 per number laid, and you have $188 + $6 = $194.
The most you could lose in a single roll is $41. You win will be $120 - $6 commission or $114.
Combined edge for the entire bet is $1 / ( $188 + $120 ) when you win - 0.3246%, and (24/30) and $6 / ( $188 + $210 ) when you lose (6/30) 1.95%. ( 0.3246 * 4 + 1.95 ) / 6. Average edge per bet is 0.5414%. Average edge per roll is (0.5414 / 1.2rolls) 0.4511%/roll. That's better than placing the six and eight, and a narrower target. Not bad.
If you consider the bet resolved when you hit any box number (24 outcomes) or the red (6 outcomes) the number of rolls is 1.2 in order to resolve. So the edge per roll is relatively low and the bet resolves quickly if you model it this way.
It also has the benefit of having a narrow target (you are aiming for the seven). Most bets that last only one roll bet against this target instead of for it. Of course the real problem with this bet is that most people can't afford to place it.
If you are lucky, you might find a place that will let you do combined vig on the bet where you just pay $1 to win $5 from five numbers. This would be the sweet spot on lowest amount required and lowest edge because you may get them to let you round down from $1.25 vig to $1.00 vig by covering everything (perhaps besides the point).
But you will be looking for an empty table as most players don't want to see somebody doing this whether it's the comeout roll or not. It's one of those bad vibe bad mojo moves. It could be that way because there is some serious exposure to the house for just shooting to win $114 every sixth roll on average with not much risk per roll.
If you can roll sevens, though, this should be very easy to beat with a controlled shot. Easier in my view than $160 across because when you screw up and have a random toss, the worst case outcome is not such a big worry.
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shunkaha
Re: Laying all numbers on come out
My thought is if you're good at tossing 7s on demand...
1] find an empty table
2] instead of switching to try for a long hand after setting a point, just lay the point and continue tossing 7s
I say this because for every 7 you toss you'd win much more than you would per box number. Use Ahigh's amount as a guide... ok, you toss a 4, to win $114 on the 4 you'd need $52 in odds on that $10 pass, that means a 7 loses $62 betting rightside, the most a box number would lose on the lays is $41. So you have to ask yourself if you could make $114 [$124 on comeouts] per roll exposing at most $41 per roll, why would you switch to a higher exposure if you didn't have to? Also if you shoot like that, most ppl that walk up to the table will walk away, which works for you because if you win 1 out of 3 come outs you'd make between $22 - 54 every 3x at between 60 and say 81 decisions per hour that table time could mean between $400 - 600 during each hour with minimal risks. The only time you'd have a problem is if you find your toss is not consistent in which event either placing or laying could be a bad thing and you should walk.
1] find an empty table
2] instead of switching to try for a long hand after setting a point, just lay the point and continue tossing 7s
I say this because for every 7 you toss you'd win much more than you would per box number. Use Ahigh's amount as a guide... ok, you toss a 4, to win $114 on the 4 you'd need $52 in odds on that $10 pass, that means a 7 loses $62 betting rightside, the most a box number would lose on the lays is $41. So you have to ask yourself if you could make $114 [$124 on comeouts] per roll exposing at most $41 per roll, why would you switch to a higher exposure if you didn't have to? Also if you shoot like that, most ppl that walk up to the table will walk away, which works for you because if you win 1 out of 3 come outs you'd make between $22 - 54 every 3x at between 60 and say 81 decisions per hour that table time could mean between $400 - 600 during each hour with minimal risks. The only time you'd have a problem is if you find your toss is not consistent in which event either placing or laying could be a bad thing and you should walk.
Re: Laying all numbers on come out
First of all, we are all good at throwing sevens, unless we still be rolling! lol. I think everyone is acturate on what there saying except one thing: I'm not looking to be on the wrong side. The most of the table wants to see a seven or an eleven on the come out. You know, get them out of the way. All I'm saying is lets make the most out of it when it does. Also play the the pass line with it. If the shooter throws a 5, we lose the $31. Pull everything down, put down your odds, throw a come bet down, and your with everyone at the table. All your looking for is a front line winner 7, then you play free on that shooter. He makes the point, go back to laying all the numbers and repeat until racks are full! Lol
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shunkaha
Re: Laying all numbers on come out
And what I'm saying is with the right bankroll, a dialed in shot, and an empty table I'd never pull down the lay bets once a point was set, I'd just 7 out then continue while I made $124 per come out roll. Once that stops, then I'd reevaluate.
Re: Laying all numbers on come out
You could think about having 24 targets you're trying to "miss" and 6 targets you're trying to "hit."
If you are using an all-seven set, the sevens would normally be your hardways and the hi-lo.
In terms of your throw, you want the same throw that would hit more pairs on a hardway set and instead use an all-seven set.
But what's different compared to rolling hardways is that the edge per roll, your hurdle that you have to overcome, is 0.45% instead of 2.78%. That's only 1/6th as difficult to accomplish a profit in the long term. Much better than trying to roll hardways.
The "numbers" that appear are just that: numbers. You can adjust your throw to accomplish any set of numbers you want if you have the technology.
There's no point in betting hardways when this system has 6 times easier to beat, and essentially leverages the exact same biased throw with a modified set. And unlike the hardways, there is no roll that demolishes all your bets at once. You have plenty of opportunity to re-asses.
If you are using an all-seven set, the sevens would normally be your hardways and the hi-lo.
In terms of your throw, you want the same throw that would hit more pairs on a hardway set and instead use an all-seven set.
But what's different compared to rolling hardways is that the edge per roll, your hurdle that you have to overcome, is 0.45% instead of 2.78%. That's only 1/6th as difficult to accomplish a profit in the long term. Much better than trying to roll hardways.
The "numbers" that appear are just that: numbers. You can adjust your throw to accomplish any set of numbers you want if you have the technology.
There's no point in betting hardways when this system has 6 times easier to beat, and essentially leverages the exact same biased throw with a modified set. And unlike the hardways, there is no roll that demolishes all your bets at once. You have plenty of opportunity to re-asses.