When do you back down?

[Yazworm91]

This is a two part topic. I've thought about what works for me, what do I like to do and what keeps me involved in the game yet I may not be involved on every roll. I've found out where I start feeling pressure at the table or maybe anxiety. Let me get this out of the way I'm not afraid to lose money. So this past weekend in tunica I tried something new. This isn't some new strategy or anything but my mentality is instead of me starting out with a lot and then regressing. I start small and max press.

I generally buy in for 200-300$. I lay 32$ across. After the CO I try to get 2 hits and then turn off. I wait till either they make there point or seven out. Now my objective is to try to press everything to 20-25$. At this point is where I'm in a dilemma. But we will get back to my dilemma shortly. I don't take any money off the table until I hit a number to get close to 30$ to me. So lets give a quick sequence.

CO 6
4 -- add a dollar and go to 15$ 4
4 -- drop a dollar and press 4 and 10 to 25$ each -- Turn off
2
11
7

CO 10 -- turn on
9 -- add 3 dollars and go to 15$ 9
8 -- go to 12$ 8 -- Turn off
10
CO 8 -- turn on
6 -- go to 12$ 6
9 -- press 9 to 20$ and 5 to 20$ -- Turn off


Ok at this point I have
4------5------6------8------9------10
25----20-----12----12----20------25


If I've got to this point without Mr. Nasty showing I have 4 numbers that start paying me and 2 numbers left to press. This is also where I start feeling pressure. I started with 32$ and I now have 114$ in play. The pressure I feel is 1. Ok I start getting paid btw 30-50 on the outside numbers and when I press the 6 and 8 to 24$. That will put me at 138$ on the board. And the next hit on either the 5 or 9 ill go to 26$ each on the 5/9. Which would put me at 150$ across. 2. I only bought in for 200-300$. If I have 154$ on the board that's anywhere between 51.3% and 77% of my buy in.

So now I'm looking like this
4------5------6------8------9------10
25----26-----24-----24-----26-----25

Now at least 5 times that I can remember this weekend when I tried to get 2 more hits on these at this point Mr. Nasty showed up. And i had either made say 30$ back or nothing at all. It was disheartening and I didn't stick with my 2 rolls and turn off rule. The craps player motto "just one more roll." Lol

So if I get two more hits which would pay me either 28$, 38$, or 49$ a time I will back down to 32$ across and start over. So lets say I hit an 8 for 28$ and 5 for 38$ which is 66$ and I go from 150$ back to 32$ taking down 118$ and 66$ for a total of 184$.


Now to me if I almost double my buy in by taking 2 hits and backing everything down I consider that a pretty good deal.

So I'd like to start an open discussion about this. Heavy, mad professor, Ahigh and anyone else where would you start backing down? Would you back down at all? You can pick me apart on this as well. Again I'm not afraid to lose money but I know at one point I ran it to 180$ across and Mr. Nasty showed and I'm like "dumbass you had 180$, quit being greedy"

[Knick111]

Good morning Yazworm 91.

Before I can give you an answer -please tell me if you are buying in to a $5 or $10 or $25 dollar table.
this system must be broken down to betting units.
Could be you are under buying in to make this work, Are you betting on the come out,how much are you betting- are you taking odds, how much are you betting on odds.

JAIME.

[Inspector]

Yazworm91,

Right away with your way of betting the first thing I notice is there is no where that you take a profit or at least take down some money to cover the initial bet.

As long as you are doing max press you are exposing all your winnings and your initial bet constantly.

It is just me but before I start any press from this bet, which I use a lot as well to limit exposure, I would take several same bets to rack enough chips to pay for the bet or at least close to it.

If you were to same bet 4 times you would have racked between $28-$36 depending on which numbers hit.

You are using 2 hits then off so you are a patient player yet you max press without racking your initial bet.

Looking at a table after hitting 4 numbers only to see when the 7 comes that you have won nothing will effect your mental game.

[vegasfan2010]

Hi Yaz, great to meet you and play some craps in Vegas. Hope your trip went well.
As you saw my betting was much smaller. Not much help for you.

You have a good throw from S-O, Heavy shoots from there too.
I know he and others here have a lot to offer.

[heavy]

Okay, nit picky. You don't lay $32 across. You are place betting $32 across. Betting across is a great way to get a quick hit or two. It's also a great way to dig a hole you can't get out of. Granted - $32 is about 10% of your buy in and is theoretically a correct bet size according to most. But if it were me I'd start out at a higher buy in and initial bet - and then regress before pressing in order to position yourself better. It will decrease short-run bankroll volatility if you are sufficiently bankrolled. But rather than do that - for essentially the same initial bet size - add $4 to it - and make it $18 six and eight. First hit pays $21 - lock up $1 and place the five and nine for $10 each. Then take a couple of hits before pressing again. There are a bazillion ways to approach this - all of which CAN work - but won't work about 51% of the time - unless you are restricting your bets to controlled shooters.

The play I used for years on a similar bankroll was $66 inside for ONE hit - regress to $22 inside - TAKE the next $7 win, then Press every second or third hit after that. When I'd get to $110 inside or something close to it I would always take a second regression -this time to $44 or $66 inside - and lock up a few more dollars profit. Then I'd press aggressively up to $220 across - then take a third regression to $110 inside. Two steps forward and one step back - that sort of thing.

With that said, if you like to press aggressively you'll like Wizard's play, which is designed to get you to $25 on the four and ten, $35 on the five and nine, and $42 on the six and eight. Get there and every hit on any number pays you $50 for $1.

Anyone else want to jump in? This is a great topic.

[freak]

I used to do this a lot. And we did it a few times this past weekend. Never got more than 2-4 hits. So it was usually a losing play. Lately I have enjoyed going up kinda big and then regress rather than up small and press. If I lose a few times on the more chancy regression play with PSO's then I will go up small and press. Bankroll forces me to. But small across is just too much to risk for so little gain. I'd prefer a $12 6&8. Or a $18 8. It feels great to have only one number up and it hits. Instantly you are positive. If you played your suggested strategy against our rolls this past weekend you would have gotten clobbered on the PSOs and near PSOs a lot. And, more importantly IMHO, missed the few really nice hands all together. That is always the tricky part. Looking back we always see opportunities. But just before each toss, I know any number can (and does) roll. I think you are making an assumption that turning off after two quick hits will often avoid the seven. It doesn't. The devil can come on roll 1 or 2 or 22. Our continued tracking has shown us that a lot of the "triggers" we key into are just mental things. For example, there is nothing in our data that indicates the 7 is more likely to come after a horn number. In fact the data says the 7 comes mostly after a 5. But we routinely turn off for a roll or two after a horn. It's a comfort thing, not a factual thing.

All that said, I do like the idea of trying to build up with winnings. A play I use now is go up big inside...maybe $88 or $110. Full press the first two hits spreading it across the sister number or each working placed bet. Take the third hit and then regress to $44 inside. I think, if I'm willing to risk $88, why not risk it for three rolls and make the risk pay the maximum? If you can get three hits you make a lot of gain and you're up inside ready to take advantage of a long hand. Of course you don't always get three hits. PSO's suck. And if you wait a roll or two then near PSO's suck. And if you wait 10 rolls you have to spend a lot of time at the table before you can place a bet. The constants are: If your placed bets are working they all lose to the 7. If your bets are off you can't win anything. As much as I hate to lose a big bet on the third roll I REALLY hate a slow loss - death by 1000 cuts. Pick you balance of risk and time at the table. Personally I'd rater risk losing than stand by a table where I'm not betting.

[Ahigh]

My opinion is that if you are attempting to advantage play, you want to get the most number of rolls in as possible to have the best chance to win. Also, I generally believe that having a consistent amount of money on the felt is important as when you increase or decrease the amount of money on the felt, you are gambling about the timing of when the good rolls will come and can easily destroy any wins you had in the past by increasing your bets too much and losing.

I do believe in starting small just because you want to roll a few times before you get your biggest bets out there. But unlike others who believe in pressing and betting that you will see more repeaters, I believe in betting an amount of money in accordance with your confidence to be able to deliver a good shot. If you are delivering shots that are looking perfect and they are hitting exactly what you wanted them to hit, then press. But I wouldn't press just because it's suggested to be an ideal way to play. Your compounded edges are higher when you press. It's best to risk the amount you want to risk and grind (IE: don't increase or decrease your bets at all).

If you are increasing and decreasing your bet amounts for advantage play in craps, you may be just applying a system and in your mind think that you are winning more consistently as a result of a toss rather than as a result of risking more to win less.

The best way to advantage play, in my opinion, is to grind a consistent amount of money on each and every roll and do not hedge. That means no one-roll bets of any kind. And if you're not playing odds, be careful not to hedge too much with additional come bets to cover the possibility of a seven.

Grinding is boring. Advantage play craps (assuming it's even possible) should be, by definition, boring. You are effectively looking to make an average of $1 per $30 you have on the table per roll. If you count up your wins and you have more than $1 per $30 of exposure per roll, my advice is to pack it up and call yourself lucky and walk.

If want to win $100 per roll, then you should have $3,000 out on the felt. That's generally my opinion. If you are managing to make more than 3% per roll in the long run, you are an amazing shooter! Again my opinion.

Even the greatest shooters in the world have both good and bad luck. But my advice is not to press your luck. If you have a great shot and you want to lay out $3,000 on the felt and try to grind out $100 per roll, hopefully you have at least $20,000 in your pocket and enough stamina not to get discouraged when you are down $10,000 and still have to grind to get your $100/roll average expectation.

Conclusion: my opinion is that pressing is for gamblers! If you are pressing for an advantage, you are missing your advantage on all the bets with the smaller bet amounts and/or you can only consider those "practice."

[rhythm roller]

So where can I find and review Wizard's strategy? I tried the forum search but did not come up with an answer. Thanks!

[heavy]

Yep, SnakeEyes is correct. I believe Wizard's preferred play had its origins in MP's $204 across. With that said, he has developed a couple of alternate plays that I've used that are not regression based. No doubt he'll be covering them in the Tunica seminar just around the corner.

[Ahigh]

Just to ensure that my point is clear, if you're going to use MP204 (IE: walk up to the table and put out $204 on the felt) .. you should never decrease your bet amounts. That, in a nutshell, is the gamble of that scheme. All the gamble is packed into the front-end. I'm not sure what the next move is when you do MP204 and the first seven rolls are sevens, but I'm pretty sure you don't decrease your bet amounts at that point. (Maybe you cry?)

Since you reduce your bets so dramatically after the first couple of hit/wins .. I think it might even be considered a "bold play" strategy. The chance of rolling two box numbers before a seven is 24/30 * 24/30 = 64%. So you get past the first two payments a little less likely than laying a four.

The remaining 36% of the time you lose after the first few rolls. Even with a player edge, your percentages change a little bit, but that's a big gamble up front if you ask me!

If you modified MP204 to lay the four for $200 and have that leg working when the controlled shooter was trying to roll a seven, that would be a big improvement. And for a random shooter, you would win $95 66.6% of the time instead of only 64% of the time.

But I just don't know .. it's like nails on the chalk board every time I hear people talking about this strategy.

[Yazworm91]

I like this discussion. Ok first sorry heavy I did mean "place" not "lay" 32$ across lol. I do like to get everyone's input on this. Lets focus on specifics. 1. How I play this is not an exact. If I feel the table is trending hot I may leave the bets on more than 2 rolls. 2. If the table is trending cold I may leave them off.

I want to focus on this part of the scenario. Lets say I have pressed all the numbers up to 150$ across like I stated previously. When would you decide to take it back to the original 32$ and start over? Even if I'm betting on someone who sets the dice and shows they are trying to have a controlled shot, I know a 7 is going to eventually show. Personally to me if I have pressed my 32$ up to 150$ and got 2 hits off of it I'm in a profit position of at least 170$ and if the shooter continues to stay hot I can work that 32$ up again.

This is what I've come to realize. If I get involved in a massive roll on a 200$ buy in its very rare I'm going to be in a 4 digit roll hand money wise. I'd rather pull 200 down and start over again because in my experience Mr. Nasty shows up at the worst times.

[Ahigh]

Here's an idea: what about a betting system that takes the sum of the two dice and multiplies it by your betting unit (EG: $5) and bet that amount on the pass line or come bet if the previous roll was odd, or the don't pass or don't come if the previous roll was even?

So your bet amounts would be between $5 and $60 on a $5 table.

You are effectively taking random data and incorporating it into your betting strategy.

That's what come and don't come bets do. And that's what pressing up a bet does.

If you have a player edge, you need to know what you're going to roll before you ever place a bet.

Any system that employs pressure and even systems that bet odds on come bets are subject to randomness that can introduce too much volatility to effectively grind out an edge.

I don't know why it is that it seems I'm talking into a well. I hear an echo, but it seems there is no intelligent response to my comments leading me to believe that anyone gets it.

Pressing bets that already hit and even come bets are effectively adding pressure that is, for the most part, random (except in the case you hit what you expected to hit, which is usually not the case).

If you want pressure, it works just as well after a seven out as it does right after you hit that specific number .. if you know you can hit it with a higher frequency than random.

[Yazworm91]

Ahigh I get exactly what you are talking about and I completely understand. You are a very intelligent person and I always like to read your insight and opinion on matters. You bring many great points and your numbers and statistics are always useful. The one thing that is never in your equations though is the human element.

Here in lies the problem also. You live in Vegas. You have access to a live craps table probably within 5-10 mins at anytime. This allows you to have more control on when you go to a table and also allows you to grind away at profits. The closest casino to me is 2.5 hours away. So I now bring in the human element, I spend all week or all month waiting to get to a table. So I'm amped up for the entire 48 hours I am at the casino. No practice rig or throwing at home will give me the same excitement when I walk up to a live table. Yes I want to make money but I am limited on my exposure at the table which could be a good or bad thing. I can also say I have a high amount of self control but at the same time I'm a gambler.

So I hear you good sir. The well isn't empty just not a lot of water left in the well when I'm at the table because I'm thirsty lol.

[freak]

Right on Yaz. Same for me. I enjoy the human elements of the game. The emotion. The happenings at the table. And time is ALWAYS a factor. My guess is you are more likely to press when you first arrive. And you are more likely to turn off after you have settled into the game. The hope of a great start always seems to make me press right at first, "Gambling" that I'll get lucky. It's happened many times. And when it does it takes the pressure off of my bankroll emotions right away. Maybe the way to look at it is "at this point in my trip, how much of a win will I be satisfied with on this hand?" Set a goal and keep track of what you have out there. Often at home when I'm losing I'll go all-in a and full press until I make back my session bankroll or go bust. It's not a great strategy. It usually fails. But when it does work it feels great to have a nice comeback. But the key ingredient in that play is that I am very much in touch with my goal. I might need 3 hits or 8 hits to dig out. But once I'm there I have no problem backing down because I hit my personal target for that hand. Only YOU can answer what your personal target is for that moment in the game.

[Michael]

Personal target per hand.I like that idea.Never thought of it that way.
Thanks for the idea.

[rhythm roller]

Hi Yaz,

I couldn't tell for sure if you are using this strategy on just yourself or everyone at the table but I am assuming on everyone.

My only thought on this is that in your example it took, I believe, 13 tosses for you to get numbers pressed to where you wanted them. Obviously there is always a lot of variance between hands but how many hands get to 13 rolls and beyond before a 7 out? I am sure a math person could actually give us a percent number but I would guess it is pretty low for this level in a random game. All this being said, I don't have a pat answer to when to back down, wish I did, but maybe it would be a good option to have a number of hits OR number of tosses option to tell you when to back down. Example, I will take every thing down after 3 hits OR 8 tosses---whichever occurs first.

Just my thoughts! Great topic and thanks for making me think about my own betting style with your questions!

[Mad Professor]

Obviously there is always a lot of variance between hands but how many hands get to 13 rolls and beyond before a 7 out?

Hi RhythmRoller,

~In a random-outcome (SRR-6) game; an average of only 1-in-10.7 hands (9.34%) will survive past the 13th point-cycle roll.

~For an SRR-6.5 skilled-shooter; an average of only 1-in-8.7 hands (11.44%) will survive past the 13th point-cycle roll.

~For an SRR-7.0 skilled-shooter; an average of only 1-in-7.4 hands (13.49%) will survive past the 13th point-cycle roll.


MP

[rhythm roller]

Thank you MP!

You math people are the bee's knees!! LOL!

[freak]

Yaz,

I wonder if you are thinking that your strategy has a better chance of surviving because you are only counting on two hits from each shooter. In my short experience in this game I've learned that will make your play stretch over a longer TIME at the table, but it's not necessarily any more "safe" than just trying to get X number of hits from one hand. And, your strategy virtually guarantees that you will miss out on the really hot hands. That's where we've seen we can make some serious $. If we are on the 6 & 8 from the start and get a 14 - 20 roll hand we do great. It's torture to pull out on roll 5 and see someone keep going for 30 minutes. Sure as heck if I jump in on roll 18 the next roll is big red. Here's my actual in casino rolls from this past Saturday. Some fair hands and some stinkers. Start at hand one and apply your strategy and see how it works.

6 - 7out
6 - 10 - 8 - 4 - 6P - 8 - 5 - 8P - 8 - 8P - 6 - 9 - 7out
10 - 8 - 7out
9 - 7out
9 - 4 - 12 - 5 - 9P - 6 - 6P - 10 - 7out
8 - 4 - 5 - 5 - 12 - 8P - 8 - 3 - 7out
8 - 6 - 8P - 6 - 7out
4 - 8 - 11 - 10 - 8 - 12 - 8 - 5 - 3 - 7out
6 - 8 - 6P - 4 - 5 - 7out
10 - 4 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 8 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 11 - 2 - 7out
4 - 9 - 4P - 8 - 7out
7 - 7 - 8 - 7out
4 - 3 - 7out
9 - 6 - 7out
10 - 3 - 9 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 12 - 7out
5 - 11 - 9 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 9 - 7out
10 - 10P - 5 - 5P - 10 - 9 - 7out
9 - 7out
4 - 4P - 6 - 9 - 11 - 7out
5 - 10 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 9 - 6 - 7out
6 - 2 - 11 - 7out
10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 10P - 6 - 7out
5 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 5P - 8 - 7out
6 - 4 - 8 - 7out
8 - 9 - 8P - 9 - 7out
2 - 11 - 3 - 9 - 9P - 5 - 2 - 9 - 5P - 2 - 4 - 6 - 7out
8 - 8P - 6 - 12 - 7out

[Yazworm91]

Yea freak I don't stick to the 2 shot rule all the time. If the table is trending cold I may take the 2 hits and be done. If it's trending toward a hot table or longer roll I may leave them on longer. It's more of "what am I feeling" but that has back fired on me plenty. "Just one more roll." Seven out!! Gets me every time