When do you back down?

[freak]

Sounds like our styles are very similar. So that means the specific answer to your question is:

"When do you back down?"

One roll after I should have.

[Yazworm91]

Freak when I get a chance later this evening ill use your rolls and go thru my play with this style.

[Yazworm91]

Ok freak lets take a look here. Ill say my buy-in is 200$. Ill press twice regardless and turn off. Ill press the exact same way that I always do

6 - 7out -- after CO place 32$ across. 7 out down 32$
-32$ after the roll. 168$ in rack

6 - 10 - 8 - 4 - 6P - 8 - 5 - 8P - 8 - 8P - 6 - 9 - 7out
Place 32$ across 10 hits drop a 1$ and full press to 15$, press 8 to 12$ turn off.

10 - 8 - 7out
Turn bets on after CO, press 8 24$, 7 out. Losing my initial 32$
-65$ (extra 1$ from full pressing the 10) with 138$ in rack (3$ left after pressing 8 twice)

9 - 7out
32$ across, 7 out
-97$ with 106$ in the rack

9 - 4 - 12 - 5 - 9P - 6 - 6P - 10 - 7out
32$ across, 4 hits drop a 1$ full press to 15$. 5 hits drop 3$ and go to 15$ 5. Turn bets off.

8 - 4 - 5 - 5 - 12 - 8P - 8 - 3 - 7out
Turn on after CO. 4 hits 30$ for 1. Press the 4 and 10 to 25$ each. 5 hits pays 21$ which I press the 5 and 9 to 20$ each. I turn off my bets.

Ok at this point I have 25$ 4/10, 20$ 5/9 and 6$ 6/8. 102$ across the board. With 70$ in the rack.

8 - 6 - 8P - 6 - 7out
Turn on after CO. Press the 6 to 12$, 8 hits press it to 12$. Turn off. Do a mental fist pump having my money turned off on the 7 out.

114$ across with 72$ in rack.

4 - 8 - 11 - 10 - 8 - 12 - 8 - 5 - 3 - 7out
Turn on after CO. 8 hits full press to 24$. 10 hits takedown 50$ for 1$. Turn off.

126$ across with 123$ in rack.

6 - 8 - 6P - 4 - 5 - 7out
Turn on after come out. 8 hits takedown 28$. 6 hits full press to 24$. Turn off.

138$ across with 153$ in rack.

10 - 4 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 8 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 11 - 2 - 7out
Turn on. 4 hits takedown 50$ for 1$. 8 hits takedown 28$.

138$ across 230$ in rack.

4 - 9 - 4P - 8 - 7out
Turn on. 9 hits takedown 30$ for 1$. 4 hits takedown 50$ for 1$.

138$ across 308$ in rack. Now I said I pressed trying to get everything to 24/25$ a number. I know the 5/9 were only at 20$ but I probably would have backed down to 32$ across since I had hit the 4/10 a couple of times and that I've kept tracked and can see I've doubled my buy in. So for this we will say I back down to 32$ across.

32$ across with 414$ in rack.

7 - 7 - 8 - 7out
32$ across. 8 hits press to 12$. 7 out. Lose initial -32.

383$ in rack

4 - 3 - 7out
7 out -32$

351$ in rack

9 - 6 - 7out
32$ across. Press 6 to 12$. 7 out -32$

329$ in rack.

10 - 3 - 9 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 12 - 7out
5 - 11 - 9 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 9 - 7out
10 - 10P - 5 - 5P - 10 - 9 - 7out
9 - 7out
4 - 4P - 6 - 9 - 11 - 7out
5 - 10 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 9 - 6 - 7out
6 - 2 - 11 - 7out
10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 10P - 6 - 7out
5 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 5P - 8 - 7out
6 - 4 - 8 - 7out
8 - 9 - 8P - 9 - 7out
2 - 11 - 3 - 9 - 9P - 5 - 2 - 9 - 5P - 2 - 4 - 6 - 7out
8 - 8P - 6 - 12 - 7out

I didn't do the rest here I quickly did them on a piece of paper. After its all said and done. On the last 7 out I would be sitting with 195$ in the rack down 5$. Couple of rolls there could have turned very profitable if I'd made it 1 more box number. But like I said. Craps players motto "one more roll". Lol

[Dave73]

At $32 across and $414 in the bank I would have taken it down and walked...

[vegasfan2010]

I would have waited until 351$ in rack. Lose a bit but not too much from the peak.

[heavy]

I kind of like the sound of $440 inside. . .LOL.

[Yazworm91]

I kind of like the sound of $440 inside. . .LOL.

I think i might do that next time. Have 150 across drop the other 190 on the table and go 440$ inside. Get 2 hits on it and come down.

[Mad Professor]

Of all the skilled-shooters that I’ve applied the MP $204-Across two-hit Regression w/Passive-Aggressive Pressing to over the last five or six years; I must say that Freak’s roll-stats have been the most brutal in terms of mostly-famine/sometimes-feast outcomes.

That leads me to believe that I’ve finally found the ONE skilled-shooter that my ‘one-size-NEARLY-fits-all-DI’s’ method does not work well enough on to make it sustainably net-profitable. Not a bad reflection on Freak in the least...in fact, his ability to pop-off Horn-numbers is amongst the best I've ever seen documented, bar none, especially given the ever-growing sample-size of his in-casino roll-stats.

I haven't done any calculations, but I suspect that his Horn-numbers account for a far higher ratio than their randomly-expected 1-in-6 (16.67%) appearance-rate. Add in all of the PSO and near-PSO's and I think we can say that this is one skilled-shooter that the MP-$204 is most likely not made for.

On the other hand, given Freak's propensity to toss closely-grouped clumps of Horn-numbers, and given that we have now gathered a decent number of his in-casino roll-stats; I also don't think we can still call his degree of shooting-prowess "unknown" at this point (which is what the MP-$204 was designed for in the first place)...so a transition to 'known-skill/validated-advantage' betting takes over.

Still, I was curious to see how the MP-$204 would fare in comparison to the above-noted betting-regimen that Yazworm tested; so I ran those same roll-stats through the Veg-a-Matic. Here’s how they looked when came out the other end:


6 - 7out…-$204
6 - 10 - 8 - 4 - 6P - 8 - 5 - 8P - 8 - 8P - 6 - 9 - 7out…+$111
10 - 8 - 7out…-$155
9 - 7out…-$204
9 - 4 - 12 - 5 - 9P - 6 - 6P - 10 - 7out…+$71
8 - 4 - 5 - 5 - 12 - 8P - 8 - 3 - 7out…+$71
8 - 6 - 8P - 6 - 7out…+$54
4 - 8 - 11 - 10 - 8 - 12 - 8 - 5 - 3 - 7out…+$80
6 - 8 - 6P - 4 - 5 - 7out…+$63
10 - 4 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 8 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 11 - 2 - 7out…+$100
4 - 9 - 4P - 8 - 7out…+$54
7 - 7 - 8 - 7out…-$204
4 - 3 - 7out…-$204
9 - 6 - 7out…-$155
10 - 3 - 9 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 12 - 7out…+$71
5 - 11 - 9 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 9 - 7out…+$71
10 - 10P - 5 - 5P - 10 - 9 - 7out…+$63
9 - 7out…-$204
4 - 4P - 6 - 9 - 11 - 7out…+$54
5 - 10 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 9 - 6 - 7out…+$179
6 - 2 - 11 - 7out…-$204
10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 10P - 6 - 7out…+$54
5 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 5P - 8 - 7out…-$155
6 - 4 - 8 - 7out…+$54
8 - 9 - 8P - 9 - 7out…+$54
2 - 11 - 3 - 9 - 9P - 5 - 2 - 9 - 5P - 2 - 4 - 6 - 7out…+$71
8 - 8P - 6 - 12 - 7out…-$155

The gross-losses amounted to -$1999...and the gross-wins amounted to +$1275; so the net-loss worked out to -$724.

Not the MP-$204's finest hour, that's for certain; but on the other hand, it illustrates that Freak's now-known pattern-of-influence is certainly exploitable...albeit, not with the MP-$204.

Good shooting, Freak! Well done!


MP

[Yazworm91]

MP I was still looking at this and I'm going to look at a few other ways I play just to get a feel for how it might play out. Ahigh's post got me thinking about possibly not pressing any of my bets for a period of time. I'm going to look at it as getting 2 hits and taking the money them turning off. Also may look at a 5 count just to see how it plays out. That's the beauty and the beast of this game. Mr Nasty has a 16.67% chance of showing on every random throw. I feel like every time the dice are thrown and my money is turned on I'm dancing with the devil. Sometimes he gets me and sometimes I stab him in the ass with his pitchfork lol.

[Yazworm91]

I would have waited until 351$ in rack. Lose a bit but not too much from the peak.

Vegas I didn't even ask how the rest of your trip went. Hope you had some good rolls. Pleasure meeting you as well.

[freak]

Most of the time I won't place any bets until I get past the 2nd roll. Sometimes I've waited longer. A few times I go up immediately. I've been trying to identify a point that indicates I'm on a roll. But looking at these hands it just seems if I wait I do miss getting spanked by the PSOs, but I also miss the profit opportunity in the beginning of a good long hand. If I wait a 5 count, or 3 count or 7 count I SHIFT the pain point of the game but I don't avoid it. The above hands in length were:

PSO - 3
3 rolls - 3
4 rolls - 3
5 rolls - 4
6 rolls - 2
7 rolls - 3
8 rolls - 2
9 rolls - 2
10 rolls - 1
11 rolls - 0
12 rolls - 1
13 rolls - 3
14 rolls - 1

I guess the clear benefit of a five count play is that I get to play for a longer amount of time with the same amount of money. I just have to spend a lot of that time waiting.

[vegasfan2010]

I would have waited until 351$ in rack. Lose a bit but not too much from the peak.

Vegas I didn't even ask how the rest of your trip went. Hope you had some good rolls. Pleasure meeting you as well.

Hi Yaz
The trip was great.

When you and I threw I was at the wrong side of the table. I finally got to throw from SR-1. That is my best position to throw from.
I started to look for that position or not play. So many tables to choose from.

I am glad I got to play at Planet H. I passed it by so many times on previous trips to Vegas. Good place to play during the day.

Good luck to you at your local place.