Strategy Challenge - can you make $ off our rolls?

[freak]

L and I are headed back to Cherokee this weekend a tad nervous. We had our biggest loss ever last trip. The kind that makes you wonder why we play the game. THIS GAME! We've been trying a lot of different strategies at home. Don't. Regression. Small placed 6 & 8 with moderate press. I'm feeling pretty lost right now. I can't seem to find an approach that's giving me any comfort this time will be better. So here's our rolls from last trip. Can anyone suggest a strategy or at least share your thinking on how you would play it if your rolls went like this? Two things seem to be fairly consistent for us. A) One of us always tends to shoot a little better, but not necessarily the same one. B) We get a few nice hands but also several PSOs and near PSOs. How can we be poised and ready to take advantage of the nice hands without getting creamed on the PSOs? Seems like if I wait a roll or two I do miss the PSOs and avoid those losses, but I just move the pain point closer on a nice 7 - 12 roll hand. All thoughts and ideas most welcome.

Freak's rolls:

5 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 4 - 8 - 7out
6 - 7out
3 - 11 - 6 - 7out
7 - 8 - 3 - 4 - 7out
9 - 7out
3 - 5 - 6 - 5P - 7
6 - 4 - 9 - 6P - 8 - 4 - 7out
11 - 4 - 4P - 6 - 2 - 8 - 7out
6 - 7out - 7 - 10 - 4 - 12 - 6 - 2 - 4 - 7out
6 - 7out
6 - 10 - 8 - 4 - 6P - 8 - 5 - 8P - 8 - 8P - 6 - 9 - 7out
10 - 8 - 7out
9 - 7out
9 - 4 - 12 - 5 - 9P - 6 - 6P - 10 - 7out
8 - 4 - 5 - 5 - 12 - 8P - 8 - 3 - 7out
8 - 6 - 8P - 6 - 7out
4 - 8 - 11 - 10 - 8 - 12 - 8 - 5 - 3 - 7out
6 - 8 - 6P - 4 - 5 - 7out
10 - 4 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 8 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 11 - 2 - 7out
4 - 9 - 4P - 8 - 7out
7 - 7 - 8 - 7out
4 - 3 - 7out
9 - 6 - 7out
10 - 3 - 9 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 12 - 7out
5 - 11 - 9 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 9 - 7out
10 - 10P - 5 - 5P - 10 - 9 - 7out
9 - 7out
4 - 4P - 6 - 9 - 11 - 7out
5 - 10 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 9 - 6 - 7out
6 - 2 - 11 - 7out
10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 10P - 6 - 7out
5 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 5P - 8 - 7out
6 - 4 - 8 - 7out
8 - 9 - 8P - 9 - 7out
2 - 11 - 3 - 9 - 9P - 5 - 2 - 9 - 5P - 2 - 4 - 6 - 7out
8 - 8P - 6 - 12 - 7out

L's rolls:

12 - 6 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 6P - 5 - 7out
8 - 9 - 5 - 5 - 8P - 6 - 9 - 9 - 8 - 7out
8 - 9 - 7out
7 - 4 - 5 - 7out
8 - 11 - 4 - 8P - 5 - 7out
5 - 7out
2 - 4 - 7out
3 - 9 - 6 - 5 - 7out
9 - 4 - 6 - 3 - 2 - 4 - 9P - 7 - 7 - 8 - 7out
6 - 4 - 5 - 4 - 8 - 7out
5 - 7out
10 - 5 - 7out
3 - 6 - 9 - 7out
5 - 7out
8 - 8P - 4 - 7out
7 - 5 - 10 - 10 - 9 - 7out
6 - 10 - 5 - 6P - 8 - 11 - 4 - 9 - 2 - 5 - 6 - 9 - 5 - 12 - 7out
12 - 8 - 11 - 6 - 9 - 7out
8 - 8P - 4 - 8 - 5 - 5 - 7out
12 - 8 - 9 - 7out
11 - 7 - 8 - 9 - 11 - 7out
7 - 8 - 3 - 7out

[Dylanfreake]

Cowtippin`starting out with a $25 wager , I would have made $30 on Freak`s rolls and $10 on L`s rolls. I would have been a happy camper.

[heavy]

Yeah, you're running about a six-toss average hand. I'd track a lot of results on their tables, take them home and put them into BoneTracker, then burn up the transposition function looking for a set that will yield even more sevens - then just play the Don'ts.

[freak]

TT - When I look at the rolls I see 24 rolls that would have paid 2 hits, 6 rolls that would have paid 1 hit and 6 rolls that would have lost completely. So to simplify in terms of units, that's 54 units won (24 hands x 2 hits + 6 hands x 1 hit) and 72 units lost (12 hands x 6 units across). I don't see how 54 winners against 72 losers can make a profit unless all of the winners are 4s and 10s.

[Golfer]

Play the Don't.........til you start seeing improvement.

[heavy]

I am reminded of the old joke.

"Doctor, it hurts when I do that."

"Then don't do that."

Look, one of the things the guys will hear me say in Tunica this weekend is, "Do you want to toss the dice or do you want to make money?" Interestingly enough, in almost every class there are a few people who would rather toss the dice. They're easy to recognize because when you go to the casino to play a live session they pretty much race to the table in order to lock up one of the better shooting positions - and (after taking a couple of shots without being able to catch a hand) they continue to camp out at that position instead of offering the slot up to another shooter who's toss might be "on" that session. Hence the observation - they'd rather shoot the dice than make money.

Now, if I were at the table with you and charting your rolls (Freak) there are some numbers I might key on for turning bets on, off, etc. Look back at your numbers and tell me if you can see them. In particular, look at what rolled 1 to 2 tosses before the seven showed. Also pay attention to your trash numbers. What do you see? Not 100% of the time - but enough to give me a reason to say "bets off" from time to time.

[Operator]

Theres money on the dark side with shooting like this dont look a gift horse in the mouth run with it. On the first shooter i was up 7 units.I made that money real fast. Thats 175 at my level of play. On the secound shooter i had to hang in there a while but came out 9 units ahead.
Dont be afaird to bet against your self find a empty table and swing away.When you get up simply walk away dont stand there go play video poker or look at hot chicks.
If you have to drive hours and hours to get to a casino then disrard this as your stuck there for days.

[Operator]

Im real bad at code as most people on the board will tell you. I tried wikipedia heres the results.
Fast patrol car

Federal prison camp

Finite population correction

Flexible printed circuit

Free presbyterian church

Foreign policy centre

[Dave73]

I recall another thread where you stated you played ~$80 inside or across. Assuming that is your comfort level to have exposed, on F's rolls you could place the 6 and 8 for $42 each, one hit and down. Do $50 for one and pocket the greens. My quick math shows 28 wins and 8 losses for a profit of $700. On L's rolls it did better doing the 5 and 9 than the 6 and 8 one hit and down but still wasnt great.

[freak]

Well I took my own advise and ran some different strategies against my rolls. I don't have a way to automate that, so the math might be slightly off. But it gives us a broad brush look at how some different strategy approaches would fair on this set of rolls. I used only my rolls, not Ls rolls.

The main things I think we are looking for are: A) Ability to play with a $300 buy in B) a fair amount of action C) Ability to win big if we catch a good roll D) Willingness to accept some risk but do like to play a long time when we are there.

Here are the strategies and their results:

Strategy 1 Full Press 8
$5 PL bet. No odds. Place a $12 8. If the 8 hits full press to $24 and lock up $2. If the 8 hits a second time, lock up $10 and use the remainder of that win with the $24 on the 8 to place $54 inside. No more pressing or regressing. If the point is 8 then place the 6 for $12 and apply this to the 6.

This yielded a lot of $17 losses when the 8 never hit, a few moderate wins and two nice wins of +$75 and +95.

Overall result -$164

Strategy 2 DC
$10 DC bet. No odds. No parlay. No press. Straight $10 don't.

Mostly $10 wins. A few break even hands and -$10 losses. Two $20 losses.

Overall result +$120

Strategy 3 See a horn bet a horn.
Anytime a horn number showed bet a $4 horn. No press if it hit.

Mostly this lost $4 each time. Lost -$12 in one hand. But won $56 in the best hand.

Overall result +$55

Strategy 4 Full Press 6&8
Similar to strategy #1 but with both the 6 and 8. $5 PL bet. No odds. Place a $12 8 AND a $12 6. If either the 6 or 8 hits full press to $24 and lock up $2. If either the 6 or 8 hits a second time, lock up $10 and use the remainder of that win plus the $24 on the hitting number to place $54 inside. This brings the hit number back down to $12. No more pressing or regressing. If the point is 6 or 8 then place $10 odds on that point. Otherwise no odds on the point.

This yielded a lot of $29 losses when the 6 or 8 never hit, a few moderate wins and two nice wins of +$54 and +133.

Overall result -$391

Strategy 5 - 1 hit on 6 or 8 then regress
$5 PL bet. No odds. Place a $12 8 AND a $12 6. If either the 6 or 8 hits rack the profit and regress the 6 & 8 to $6 each. No more pressing or regressing. If the point is 6 or 8 then place $10 odds on that point. Otherwise no odds on the point.

This yielded a lot of $29 losses when the 6 or 8 never hit, a few small wins and losses in the $-4 to +$4 range and only two fair wins of of +$32 and +35.

Overall result -$341

Strategy 6 - PL with 1x, 2x, 4x martingale odds
$5 PL bet. 1x odds. If this loses then the next hand gets 2x ($10) odds. If this loses the next hand gets 4x ($20) odds. If that loses go back to step one. Anytime there is a win go back to step one.

This yielded a lot of $10 losses, a fair amount of $15 losses and only 3 $25 losses. Several small wins of +$1 to +5, and several pretty fair wins like $+45, $+51, $+56 and $+60. It was lucky that the martingale progression happened to be at 4x odds when I made the point of 4 and 10 a few times.

Overall result +$90.

At this point I'm feeling best about Strategy #1. I know it was a loser. But it only lost -$164. If just a few more hands go good instead of bad we could see a nice profit. It has enough going on to satisfy my need for action without the big risk of $54 inside right away. I think we'll start like this. If we don't catch any good hands I'll switch to don't. But it kills me to be at the table with only $10 action hoping for a seven. I doubt I can keep the discipline to do that even though it's a winner on these rolls.

Thanks for all the input guys. Most helpful

[Ahigh]

There is a winning bet for every roll. Knowing in advance makes winning from rolls very simple. I'm not really sure the question; maybe it's "does your betting strategy fit this sequence of rolls?" maybe. Generally speaking, a little less than half of ALL betting strategies will.

[Dave73]

Strategy 5 - 1 hit on 6 or 8 then regress
$5 PL bet. No odds. Place a $12 8 AND a $12 6. If either the 6 or 8 hits rack the profit and regress the 6 & 8 to $6 each. No more pressing or regressing. If the point is 6 or 8 then place $10 odds on that point. Otherwise no odds on the point.

This yielded a lot of $29 losses when the 6 or 8 never hit, a few small wins and losses in the $-4 to +$4 range and only two fair wins of of +$32 and +35.

Overall result -$341

Maybe im doing something wrong on my quick calculations. I show you had 28 rolls with a 6 or 8 after the point and 8 without. Doing $12 on each, one hit and DOWN ( not regress to $6) I show:
+$392
-$192
Total +$200

I didnt run through the pass line wins or losses, this was for place bets only


EDIT: maybe run the math for a DP and a 6&8 one hit and DOWN?

[freak]

OK I just ran another strategy with surprising results.

Strategy #7 - $12 6&8 one hit and down
$5 PL bet. No odds. If the point is 6 or 8 put $10 odds on the point and $12 on the other number. After one hit remove the hit number. Non hit number remains until hit. Once both hit the only working bet is PL.

This resulted in a lot of -$29 losses and I expected that. But wins were meager. Since bet is down after one hit the biggest possible win per hand is $28. Most of the time it did not hit a 6 and an 8 in the same hand. Also many many of the 6 and 8's hit were on the CO which did not pay. I'm sure for this set of hands with few come out 7's it would look better if I ran assuming all bets on all the time. But running it per standard off on CO rules results are bleak. Feel free to check my math.

Overall net result = a loss of -$274

Ouch.

[Dave73]

One hit and BOTH go DOWN.

[freak]

Ok that's better but still a loss. Max win per hand is $14. Not much upside to offset the -$29 loss on PSOs. ($12 six. $12 eight, $5 PL)

Overall Net result + a loss of -$123

[Dave73]

Look at the Pass line and Place bets as TWO separate entities.
There is no reason you cant do a DP and a Place bet, especially for one hit and down

Im still showing 28 Place bet wins and 8 total losses. Maybe Im missing something....

[Michael]

Operator,
I believe he is referring to free play craps.

[Dave73]

5 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 4 - 8 - 7out +14
6 - 7out -24
3 - 11 - 6 - 7out+14
7 - 8 - 3 - 4 - 7out +14
9 - 7out -24
3 - 5 - 6 - 5P - 7 +14
6 - 4 - 9 - 6P - 8 - 4 - 7out +14
11 - 4 - 4P - 6 - 2 - 8 - 7out +14
6 - 7out - 7 - 10 - 4 - 12 - 6 - 2 - 4 - 7out +14
6 - 7out -24
6 - 10 - 8 - 4 - 6P - 8 - 5 - 8P - 8 - 8P - 6 - 9 - 7out +14
10 - 8 - 7out +14
9 - 7out -24
9 - 4 - 12 - 5 - 9P - 6 - 6P - 10 - 7out +14
8 - 4 - 5 - 5 - 12 - 8P - 8 - 3 - 7out +14
8 - 6 - 8P - 6 - 7out +14
4 - 8 - 11 - 10 - 8 - 12 - 8 - 5 - 3 - 7out +14
6 - 8 - 6P - 4 - 5 - 7out +14
10 - 4 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 8 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 11 - 2 - 7out +14
4 - 9 - 4P - 8 - 7out +14
7 - 7 - 8 - 7out +14
4 - 3 - 7out -24
9 - 6 - 7out +14
10 - 3 - 9 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 12 - 7out +14
5 - 11 - 9 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 9 - 7out +14
10 - 10P - 5 - 5P - 10 - 9 - 7out
9 - 7out -24
4 - 4P - 6 - 9 - 11 - 7out +14
5 - 10 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 9 - 6 - 7out +14
6 - 2 - 11 - 7out -24
10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 10P - 6 - 7out +14
5 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 5P - 8 - 7out +14
6 - 4 - 8 - 7out +14
8 - 9 - 8P - 9 - 7out +14
2 - 11 - 3 - 9 - 9P - 5 - 2 - 9 - 5P - 2 - 4 - 6 - 7out +14
8 - 8P - 6 - 12 - 7out +14

[freak]

Yeah..I guess what I see is that you are often counting the first hit as a win. If you do that you also have to count the come out 7s as a -$24 loss. So to my mind it looks like this:

5 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 4 - 8 - 7out +14
6 - 7out -24
3 - 11 - 6 - 7out -24
7 - 8 - 3 - 4 - 7out -24
9 - 7out -24
3 - 5 - 6 - 5P - 7 +14
6 - 4 - 9 - 6P - 8 - 4 - 7out +14
11 - 4 - 4P - 6 - 2 - 8 - 7out +14
6 - 7out - 7 - 10 - 4 - 12 - 6 - 2 - 4 - 7out +14
6 - 7out -24
6 - 10 - 8 - 4 - 6P - 8 - 5 - 8P - 8 - 8P - 6 - 9 - 7out +14
10 - 8 - 7out +14
9 - 7out -24
9 - 4 - 12 - 5 - 9P - 6 - 6P - 10 - 7out +14
8 - 4 - 5 - 5 - 12 - 8P - 8 - 3 - 7out +14
8 - 6 - 8P - 6 - 7out +14
4 - 8 - 11 - 10 - 8 - 12 - 8 - 5 - 3 - 7out +14
6 - 8 - 6P - 4 - 5 - 7out +14
10 - 4 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 8 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 11 - 2 - 7out +14
4 - 9 - 4P - 8 - 7out -24
7 - 7 - 8 - 7out -24
4 - 3 - 7out -24
9 - 6 - 7out +14
10 - 3 - 9 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 12 - 7out +14
5 - 11 - 9 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 9 - 7out +14
10 - 10P - 5 - 5P - 10 - 9 - 7out -24
9 - 7out -24
4 - 4P - 6 - 9 - 11 - 7out -24
5 - 10 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 9 - 6 - 7out +14
6 - 2 - 11 - 7out -24
10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 10P - 6 - 7out +14
5 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 5P - 8 - 7out -24
6 - 4 - 8 - 7out +14
8 - 9 - 8P - 9 - 7out +14
2 - 11 - 3 - 9 - 9P - 5 - 2 - 9 - 5P - 2 - 4 - 6 - 7out -24
8 - 8P - 6 - 12 - 7out +14

21 x $12 winners = +$252
15 x $24 losers = -$360

-$108 net loss

[Dave73]

Ah yeah, I see what I did there...guess thats why I should work at work and not play on the internets.

BUT If you did the 6/8 WOTCO One hit OR loss and DOWN per HAND:

5 - 6 - 6 - 8 - 4 - 8 - 7out +14
6 - 7out +14
3 - 11 - 6 - 7out+14
7 - 8 - 3 - 4 - 7out -24
9 - 7out -24
3 - 5 - 6 - 5P - 7 +14 (is this string right? )
6 - 4 - 9 - 6P - 8 - 4 - 7out +14
11 - 4 - 4P - 6 - 2 - 8 - 7out +14
6 - 7out - 7 - 10 - 4 - 12 - 6 - 2 - 4 - 7out +14 (is this string right? might need to -24 if so)
6 - 7out +14
6 - 10 - 8 - 4 - 6P - 8 - 5 - 8P - 8 - 8P - 6 - 9 - 7out +14
10 - 8 - 7out -24
9 - 7out -24
9 - 4 - 12 - 5 - 9P - 6 - 6P - 10 - 7out +14
8 - 4 - 5 - 5 - 12 - 8P - 8 - 3 - 7out +14
8 - 6 - 8P - 6 - 7out +14
4 - 8 - 11 - 10 - 8 - 12 - 8 - 5 - 3 - 7out +14
6 - 8 - 6P - 4 - 5 - 7out +14
10 - 4 - 8 - 3 - 9 - 8 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 11 - 2 - 7out +14
4 - 9 - 4P - 8 - 7out +14
7 - 7 - 8 - 7out -24
4 - 3 - 7out -24
9 - 6 - 7out +14
10 - 3 - 9 - 5 - 9 - 8 - 12 - 7out +14
5 - 11 - 9 - 10 - 4 - 8 - 9 - 7out +14
10 - 10P - 5 - 5P - 10 - 9 - 7out -24
9 - 7out -24
4 - 4P - 6 - 9 - 11 - 7out +14
5 - 10 - 8 - 8 - 6 - 6 - 4 - 9 - 9 - 6 - 2 - 9 - 6 - 7out +14
6 - 2 - 11 - 7out +14
10 - 6 - 4 - 4 - 10P - 6 - 7out +14
5 - 2 - 2 - 2 - 5P - 8 - 7out +14
6 - 4 - 8 - 7out +14
8 - 9 - 8P - 9 - 7out +14
2 - 11 - 3 - 9 - 9P - 5 - 2 - 9 - 5P - 2 - 4 - 6 - 7out +14
8 - 8P - 6 - 12 - 7out +14

+406 wins
-192 losses
+214 net

This would be in addition or subtraction to your pass/ dont pass